8th BRICS Meeting 2016 – Looking Ahead To A Changing World Order

Leaders from the five BRICS countries met in Goa, India on October 15-16 for their 8th BRICS Summit. While some member economies are seen to be struggling, overall, the leaders expressed a positive vision and plan for the future. 

The BRICS, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa contain 43% of the world population, 30% of the world’s GDP and 17% or world trade.

At the end of the 8th BRICS summit the organization issued the Goa Declaration that affirmed the organization’s strong support for ongoing activities focused on international cooperation, particularly those sponsored by the United Nations.

The Declaration touched on a number of key points including:

  • Committing to strengthen and maintain BRICS solidarity
  • Supporting the development of a multi-polar world based on the role of the UN and international law
  • Stressing that international problems require joint efforts to solve
  • Condemning unilateral military interventions and sanctions not based on international law
  • Expressing concern about the Middle East and North Africa
  • Emphasizing its support for a two-state solution to the Palestinian question
  • Committing itself to the implementation of the 2030 Accord for Sustainable Development
  • Welcoming India’s decision to hold the first BRICS Trade Fair in New Delhi
  • Stressing the importance of an invigorated and inclusive world economy
  • Supporting the continuing use of nuclear energy
  • Calling for the peaceful, non-military use of outer space
  • Strongly condemning terrorism and called ISIL a threat to world peace
  • Expressing their commitment to gender equality as put forth in the 2030 Agenda

Government of India BRICS web page

Goa Declaration full text

Photo: Government ZA via flickr

There Will Be No Foreign Bases in Viet Nam – Period.

In response to a comment by Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Nikolay Pankov that Russia is considering re-opening closed Cold War bases in Viet Nam and Cuba, Viet Nam issued a strong statement on October 13 that its policy continues to be no foreign bases on its soil. Perhaps the Russian minister’s words were a trial balloon; asking in such a way as to not ask. Russia did get an answer without a rejection, but the answer was no. Viet Nam’s air and naval base at Cam Ranh Bay was used by both Russia and the U.S. in the past, and is sometimes visited by foreign naval forces from countries like the U.S., Japan and France. Visits seem fine, but no one is invited to stay.

It may be that Russia sees itself surrounded by NATO and other countries and thinks it is time to dust-off some Cold War thinking, or at least update it. Things have been in constant flux since the end of WWII, but many of the countries subject to Imperialism and invasion by foreign powers are now determined to fiercely defend their sovereignty and independence. Foreign bases are a memory of the “bad old days” are don’t get much favor in countries such as Viet Nam.

Reuters: Vietnam Says No to Bases

Russia Sputnik News: Nothing New in VN Rejection

Photo: U.S. Pacific Fleet via flickr 

October 1, 1949 – Mao Zedong Declares The Founding of the PRC

On October 1, 1949 Mao Zedong stood atop Tiananmen Gate and declared the founding of the People’s Republic of China. His speech was short, but the significance was major. After a century of humiliation and war and unimaginable tragedy the country was being unified and China would soon write its own destiny without outside influences. Much triumph and tragedy had preceded that day, and much would follow, but that day will be remembered as a turning point in the history of China.

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“The people throughout China have been plunged into bitter suffering and tribulations since the Chiang Kai-shek [Jiang Jieshi] Kuomintang [Guomindang] reactionary government betrayed the fatherland, colluded with imperialists, and lunched the counter-revolutionary war. Fortunately our People’s Liberation Army, backed by the whole nation, has been fighting heroically and selflessly to defend the territorial sovereignty of our homeland, to protect the people’s lives and property, to relieve the people of their sufferings, and to struggle for their rights, and it eventually wiped out the reactionary troops and overthrew the reactionary rule of the Nationalist government. Now, the People’s War of Liberation has been basically won, and the majority of the people in the country have been liberated. On this foundation, the first session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, composed of delegates of all the democratic parties and people’s organization of China, the People’s Liberation Army, the various regions and nationalities of the country, and the overseas Chinese and other patriotic elements, has been convened. Representing the will of the whole nation, [this session of the conference] has enacted the organic law of the Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China, elected Mao Zedong as chairman of the Central People’s Government; and Zhu De, Lui Shaoqi, Song Qingling, Li Jishen, Zhang
Lan, and Gao Gang as vice chairmen [of the Central People’s Government]; and Chen Yi, He Long, Li Lisan, Lin Boqu, Ye Jianying, He Xiangning, Lin Biao, Peng Dehuai, Liu Bocheng, Wu Yuzhang, Xu Xiangqian, Peng Zhen, Bo Yibo, Nie Rongzhen, Zhou Enlai, Dong Biwu, Seypidin, Rao Shushi, Tan Kah-kee [Chen Jiageng], Luo Ronghuan, Deng Zihui, Ulanhu, Xu Deli, Cai Chang, Liu Geping, Ma Yinchu, Chen Yun, Kang Sheng, Lin Feng, Ma Xulun, Guo Moruo, Zhang Yunyi, Deng Xiaoping, Gao Chongmin, Shen Junru, Shen Yanbing, Chen Shutong, Szeto Mei-tong [Situ Meitang], Li Xijiu, Huang Yanpei, Cai Tingkai, Xi Zhongxun, Peng Zemin, Zhang Zhizhong, Fu Zuoyi, Li Zhuchen, Li Zhangda, Zhang Nanxian, Liu Yazi, Zhang Dongsun, and Long Yun as council members to form the Central People’s Government Council, proclaimed the founding of the People’s Republic of China and decided on Beijing as the capital of the People’s Republic of China. The Central People’s Government Council of the People’s Republic of China took office today in the capital and unanimously made the following decisions: to proclaim the establishment of the Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China; to adopt the Common Program of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference as the policy of the government; to elect Lin Boqu from among the council members as secretary general of the Central People’s Government Council; to appoint Zhou Enlai as premier of the Government Administration Council of the Central People’s Government and concurrently minister of Foreign Affairs, Mao Zedong as chairman of the People’s Revolutionary Military Commission of the Central People’s Government, Zhu De as commander-in-chief of the People’s Liberation Army, Shen Junru as president of the Supreme People’s Court of the Central People’s Government, and Luo Ronghuan as procurator general of the Supreme People’s Procuratorate of the Central People’s Government, and to charge them with the task of the speedy formation of the various organs of the government to carry out the work of the government. At the same time, the Central People’s Government Council decided to declare to the governments of all other countries that this government is the sole legal government representing all the people of the People’s Republic of China. This government is willing to establish diplomatic relations with any foreign government that is willing to observe the principles of equality, mutual benefit, and mutual respect of territorial integrity and sovereignty.”

Mao Zedong Chairman The Central People’s Government

The People Republic of China

自介石民党反派政府背叛祖,勾帝主,反革命以,全人民于水深火的情之中。幸我人 民解放在全人民援助之下,保祖的土主,保人民的生命,解除人民的痛苦和取人民的利,不身, 英勇作,得以消反,推翻民政府的反治。在人民解放已取得基本的胜利,全大多人民已得解放。 在此基之上,由全各民主党派、各人民体、人民解放、各地、各民族、外及其他民主分子的代表所 成的中人民政治商第一全体已集,代表全人民的意志,制定了中人民共和中央人民政府法,了毛 中央人民政府主席,朱德、少奇、宋、李深、、高副主席,毅、龙、李立三、林伯渠、英、何香 凝、林彪、彭德怀、伯承、玉章、徐向前、彭真、薄一波、臻、周恩、董必武、福鼎、漱石、嘉庚、 桓、子恢、夫、徐特立、蔡、格平、寅初、云、康生、林、、郭沫若、云逸、小平、高崇民、沈 儒、沈雁冰、叔通、司徒美堂、李九、炎培、蔡廷、仲、彭民、治中、傅作、李、李章、章伯、程 、奚若、、平山、先、柳子、、龙云委,成中央人民政府委,宣告中人民共和的成立,并定 北京中人民共和的首都。中人民共和中央人民政府委于本日在首都就,一致:宣告中人民共和中央 人民政府的成立,接受中人民政治商共周本政府的施政方,互林伯渠中央人民政府委秘,任命周 恩中央人民政府政院理兼外交部部,毛中央人民政府人民革命事委主席,朱德人民解放司令,沈 儒中央人民政府最高人民法院院,桓中央人民政府最高人民察署察,并成他速成各政府机,推行 各政府工作。同:向各政府宣布,本政府代表中人民共和全人民的唯一合法政府。凡愿遵守平等、互 利及互相尊重土主等原的任何外政府,本政府均愿与之建立外交系。特此公告。

中人民共和中央人民政府主席 毛

Photo: Wikimedia public domain

Text: Wilson Center digital archive

ASEAN Destinations – Mandalay, The Second City

Myanmar’s second largest city Mandalay is a place to watch. Like the country as a whole, “potential” is the operative word. Emerging from years of self-imposed isolation, the country is poised for a modest 7% growth according to the World Bank. The country has potential, as does the city of Mandalay. Things are moving for this tourist destination, and Mandalay has experienced a 26% increase in tourists since 2014. A lack of transportation, particularly by air is holding back development of the tourist sector; there are only eight domestic and five international airlines serving Mandalay.

640px-King-Mindon

Mandalay has a relatively short history; it was founded in 1857 as a capital for King Mindon, and is the last royal capital. Lack of infrastructure continues to be a problem. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) just 55% of the population has piped water, and that is for only part of the day. In September 2016, the Government of Myanmar and the ADB signed an agreement for a $60 million loan and a $4 million grant for a sustainable wastewater and drainage management system.

In Mandalay things are moving, and at their own pace. Perhaps “pace”shoud be considered as a key factor in moving both Myanmar and Mandalay forward in a sustainable manner.

 Temple Photo: Paul Arps via flickr

Photo: King Mindon 

ADB Loan announcement

And now…A new job for Alibaba’s Jack Ma

              by David Parmer/Tokyo

Jack Ma, the second richest man in China, Tai Chi player, fan of Wuxia novels and founder and executive chairman of Alibaba, just got a job offer. And Mr. Ma accepted. President Widodo of Indonesia himself (in a move that harks back to the Romance of the Three Kingdoms where Liu Bei went to recruit Zhuge Liang) went to Hangzhou and asked Mr. Ma to be an advisor to Indonesia’s committee of 10 ministers on e-commerce. And if there is anything that Mr. Ma can claim expertise in, it is e-commerce. Indonesia’s e-commerce sector has made remarkable progress since 2013, and the future only looks still brighter. Indonesia’s enormous population and vast size make it both promising and challenging for e-commerce.

What will Mr. Ma bring to the table? Experience, for sure, but probably more importantly–vision. If you are going to think big and act boldly, then it will surely be of great comfort to have smiling Jack Ma from Hangzhou, China sitting next to you.

Photo: WEF, Davos 2015 via flickr

G20 Summit 2016 Hangzhou – What do you choose to focus on?

The G20 Summit in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province on September 4–5 was either a big success or a series of small misses. It depends on what you focus on. The western press focused on areas of friction during the event, particularly regarding the press and the Chinese hosts. US President Barack Obama played down the friction and said that it takes place at these kinds of events, even with US allies.

This is perhaps the last meeting for President Obama and President Xi during Mr. Obama’s term of office. Of importance was their committing to the Paris agreement to curb emissions leading to global warming. This may have been the high point of Mr. Obama’s Hangzhou visit.

For Mr. Xi, and the Chinese side, the G20 was a Chinese “win” showing China’s ability to host such an important international event and underscoring its decades of “reform and opening up” which Mr. Xi covered in Keynote to the event. In his closing remarks Mr. Xi noted the achievements of the meeting and highlighted the change in the function of the G20 is global economic problem solving.

So what happened at Hangzhou? Nothing much, or a great deal?   For China, a great deal, and all of it important.

President Xi Jinping’s closing remarks on the Hangzhou meeting

G20 Leader’s Communiqué on closing of Hangzhou meeting

Photo: Narendra Modi via flickr

China’s Baidu Search Engine Hits A Rough Patch

              Generals Know of Winning and Losing

                                    勝敗乃兵家常事

 Baidu co-founder Robin Li ( the 7th richest man in China) has had to face some pressing problems recently.

Baidu profits for Q2/2016 are down 34.1% year on year. And Mr. Li himself admits that it may take 3-4 quarters for things to turn around.

The problem? Baidu has come under public and private scrutiny for its advertising and search reporting policies. Users complain that they often can not distinguish between genuine search results and paid advertising. To compound this, a college student, Wei Zexi followed therapy for cancer found on Baidu and died.

 On July 28, Mr. Li described countermeasures and future prospects during a conference call on Q2/2016 results. Mr. Li said that tighter control and new regulations will suppress earnings, but in the long term Baidu will enhance the Baidu user experience. He promised to reduce sponsored links as well.

 Since its founding in 1999, Baidu has steadily moved forward to become China’s premier search engine. Now it seems it is time for some real soul-searching and implementing effective measures to restore the company to profitability and to mend the damaged brand in the eyes of China’s massive Internet-using public.

 

 

 

 

Photo:  Bidu CEO Robin Li Fortune Live Media via flickr

Baidu 2016 Q2 Balance Sheet via Baidu

Baidu 2016 Q2 Earnings Call Transcript

Asian Waters–The Frozen Songhua River

                           by David Parmer / Tokyo

Amurrivermap

Northeast China’s Songhua River, China’s most northern river system, starts in an otherworldly location called Heaven Lake on the border with North Korea. The lake is a source for three rivers, the Songhua, the Tumen and the Yalu. Flowing north, and east, it passes the city of Jilin and meanders to Harbin and then joins the mighty Amur River and rolls into Khabarovsk and then on to the sea.

The Songhua is navigable up to Harbin, but for basically half the year, from November till April it is frozen solid. In Harbin the frozen Songhua provides a venue for winter recreation and Harbin’s world-famous Ice Festival.

In history, the Songhua River has been prominent in Chinese-Russian relations and in the building of the China Eastern Railway. In 2005 a chemical spill polluted the drinking water of Harbin and Khabarovsk. Today the Songhua River is quiet, and as the days pass into autumn the water will be getting ready for its annual freeze and Harbin for its festive time.

Source of Songhua, Yalu

Changbi Waterfall, Heaven Lake (China/N. Korea border)

Photo:   Harbin Ice Festival via flickr, Jarod Carruthers

Photo: Changbai Waterfall via flickr, Joe Jiang

 

 

IMF Lagarde on the Importance of Big and Small Banking

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde delivered a speech at the Federal Reserve in New York City on July 18. The speech was titled “Relations in Banking – Making it Work for Everyone.”

The topic of the speech concerned Correspondent Banking as it involved banks and their clients in developing countries, small island economies and small financial systems.

Currently there is a trend among large banks to downsize their correspondent banking relationships. The reasons for this are generally two:

  • Low profitability
  • Some relationships damaging to their risk profiles

Lagarde explained how banks in Africa, the Caribbean, Central Asia and the Pacific are at risk of being cut off from the global financial network. She gave examples that included banks in the Caribbean, Liberia and Samoa. Not only small economies are at risk, but countries like Mexico and the Philippines. Many of these countries count on overseas remittances to make up a significant part of GDP.

The IMF sees a need for the banks to work together to reduce the cost of Anti Money Laundering–Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) compliance. Countries need to upgrade their compliance standards in this area. And regulators must regulate so that the regulated can understand what is required. Lagarde stresses that while there are current concerns, a business case can be made for banks continuing their operations in small countries. Should they withdraw, other systems both legal and not legal may well emerge to fill the vacuum.

Lagarde concluded “all actors have a part to play” in solving this problem, and that there is much at stake for large and small players.

Full text of  Lagarde speech at IMF

Photo: IMF via flickr

India Deploys 100 T-72 Tanks To China Border

India is positioning one full armored brigade to the Ladakh region of Jamu & Kashmir. The deployment started in 2014 with the positioning of a single regiment, continued in 2015 with the addition of another regiment, and will continue this year when the third regiment is added forming the regular brigade. On July 19, 2016, The Hindu reported that the third regiment would be moved soon.

A total of 100 vintage Russian-built T72 tanks will be positioned in Ladakh to counter a reported Chinese buildup of armored forces and infrastructure. The Ladakh area is mountainous, but punctuated with plains, terrain that is ideal for armored maneuver and warfare. Due to the 15,000 ft. altitude and severe cold, special measures are required to keep the vehicles running and combat-ready.

India has been seen to be at a disadvantage in its ongoing dispute over the border, which is referred to as The Line of Actual Control. Moving these armored forces to the border can be seen as India sending a clear message to China that it will not back down from its position regarding ongoing differences about their border at the top of the world

Photo: Vivek Patankar via flickr