カテゴリー: News

                                         Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping (Photo: CICA Summit)

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin was in China this week on a state visit and at the same time to attend the fourth Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA). The conference was held in Shanghai on May 20-21.

The conference has been held every four years since 1992. It was first proposed by Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev to promote peace, security and stability in the region. China’s CCTV reports that there are now 24 member states and 13 observer states that make up the conference. Topics addressed covered are:

• Terrorism
• Drug trafficking
• Separatist and ethnic forces
• Environmental issues
• Maritime issues
• Energy

 This year’s attendees, in addition to Putin included Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev, and U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

 The big news to come out of Putin’s visit was not the conference but the closing of a 30-year, China-Russia energy deal to supply Russian natural gas to China. A $400 billion agreement was signed between Russian’s GAZPROM and China’s National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). The deal had been on the table for a long time but was finally closed during Putin’s visit.

Lesser deals were reported including an understanding for joint development of  a long-haul airliner to compete with Boeing and Airbus, an agreement on the building of a bridge on the Amur River between China and Russia, and discussions on possible Russian weapons sales to China. 

                                                               (Photo: Tianjin Port)

Tianjin, north China’s largest coastal city is again on the move. A major seaport and gateway to China since the 19th century, Tianjin is still a hub of activity, with great plans for 2014 and beyond.  In September 2013 Shanghai set up a Hong-Kong like Free Trade Zone in its Pudong area. The government of the PRC is now looking at 12 more FTZ around the country, with Tianjin being a prime candidate. Central government survey has been completed and approval is in the pipeline. An expanded FTZ would include the Dongjiang Free Trade Port Zone, the Binhai New District and the Port of Tianjin.The Tianjin Port Free Trade website reports that 1500 new enterprises are to be introduced in 2014. 100 projects will start construction and several ecological projects will be launched

 

Myanmar is center stage for the 2014 ASEAN Summit to be held in its capital Nay Pyi Taw on May 10th and 11th. Representatives from 10 ASEAN countries will converge on the capital to discuss a range of issues including the ASEAN Charter and the planned ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) scheduled for a 2015 launch. The proposed AEC will reduce barriers on trade and movement of labor within the region. A key issue before the members will be the ongoing maritime disputes centering on the South China Sea. 

The Myanmar Times reported on May 9 that Myanmar is set to announce the Nay Pyi Taw Declaration to urge increased cooperation ahead of the 2015 start of the AEC. Myanmar, as 2014 ASEAN chair is responsible to make sure that all members are up to speed before 2015.

The May 10-11 meeting is the first major meeting Myanmar is holding as ASEAN chair. According to the ASEAN website: “Political, economic and administrative reforms in Myanmar since 2011 have made it possible for Myanmar to play a more active roe in regional and international affairs in accordance with its foreign policy objectives…”

                                                

                     by David Parmer

Are weapons systems just the best  hi-tech engines of war that a country can field at a given time, or can they give us a clear insight into the way a nation sees its future political-military role regionally or globally?

After landing in Qingdao on April 7, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel was treated to a rare look at China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning. Hagel was the first foreign visitor to set foot on the vessel. He reportedly toured the ship and chatted informally with crew members. After the visit the media speculated on the deeper meaning of the visit. Many suggested that it showed a willingness to engage in greater transparency on the Chinese side. Whatever the reason for the visit, the ship itself is no real mystery.

Launched in Russia in 1990, she was bought by the PRC from Ukraine and towed ( in an event-filled voyage) to Dalian, China in 1990. The cover story of the hull being used as a floating casino was dispensed with, and refitting began. The ship was re-named the Liaoning in honor of the province in which the refitting took place. It was later berthed at Qingdao in Shandong province. On September 25, 2012 the Liaoning was commissioned as a PLA Navy aircraft carrier. At the time of Secretary Hagel’s visit, the U.S. Department of Defense News reported that the Liaoning featured three launch stations for jets, and had a crew of 1500 sailors ( 90 females), 1/6 being officers. The Liaoning reported will accommodate 30, Chinese-built J-15 fighters. Several sea trials have already taken place since the 2012 commissioning.

 

                                                      (V-22 Osprey-U.S. Defense)

The V-22 Osprey is a tilt-rotor aircraft with both airplane and helicopter capabilities. It can perform both short takeoff and landings (STOL) and vertical takeoffs and landings (VTOL). It was jointly developed by Bell Helicopter and Boeing Rotorcraft Systems. According to Boeing, it can carry 24 combat-ready troops or 20,000 pounds of cargo. It has a range of 600nm and a maximum cruising speed of 280 knots. The Osprey has mid-air refueling capabilities as well.

The program that led to the development of the Osprey began in 1981, with the first flights in 1989. The U.S. Marines began operating the aircraft in 2007. Currently the Marines and  U.S. Air Force operate more than 200 Osprey. Since its introduction, it has seen combat duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

Accidents plagued the Osprey, and there has been a lingering doubt about its reliability despite the fact that, according to Boeing, it has “the lowest Class A mishap rate of any tactical rotorcraft in the Marine Corps during the past decade.” (Boeing.com) This was partly the cause of strong local opposition in April-June 2012 to the deployment of the Osprey to Futenma in Okinawa, Japan. Despite the opposition the aircraft was deployed in July 2012. In June 2013 during operation Dawn Blitz off the coast of California, Osprey were landed on Japan Maritime SDF vessels Shimokita and Hyuga. Osprey reportedly cost $70million each, and have an operating cost of $10,000/hour.

What can we infer from the deployment in the region of these two weapons systems? In the case of the Liaoning, with the commissioning of the ship China joined the aircraft carrier club, an exclusive group of 11 members. The U.S. leads the way with 11 carriers, with most other members having one or two at most. Aircraft carriers enable countries to project power well beyond their nautical boundaries. So is the purpose of buying, refitting, commissioning and operating the Liaoning to send out a state-of-the-art aircraft carrier? Probably not. But if a country is intent on building a naval air arm, it has to start somewhere, and the Liaoning is “somewhere.” Even if China could deploy the flotilla of ships necessary to service and protect the Liaoning, it would be no match for a U.S. carrier. The United States has 70-80 years experience with carrier-based naval aviation, China has a year and a half. Japan too, has vast experience with carrier-based naval aviation. Time magazine reports that China is now working on a second and home-made carrier, with four planned by 2020. So what is the Liaoning? It would be safe to say that it is at least two things: a symbol of China’s yet-to-peak rise to major regional and world power, and a floating university for the PLA Navy’s carrier-based fleet.

 And what does the deployment of the V-22 Osprey in Japan say about Japanese and U.S. policy for the near future?  Probably a lot. The Osprey which caused so much opposition among the Japanese public, might be the very thing that will significantly add to their security. Noted above were the landing of Osprey on Japanese naval vessels during military exercises off California in June 2013. During his recent ( April 2014) visit to Japan, U.S. president Barack Obama made it clear that the U.S. was firm in its commitments to Japan’s defense, including the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands now in dispute between Japan and China. Some strategists suggest that if military action takes place in the islands, it will be short and violent. With the capabilities of the V-22 Osprey, the U.S. could place boots on the ground quickly and in number, or could ferry Japanese SDF troops to Japan naval ships or to landing zones in the islands. The Osprey enables the U.S. and Japan to make a timely and powerful response to any land/sea provocation in the region.

Two weapon systems headed for an inevitable confrontation with the other side’s assets? Not necessarily. The Cold War showed that heavily armed adversaries could face off without major incident for extended periods. But both systems clearly signal readable national intent of the nations involved, and bear close watching in the future.

  PDF on Boeing web page: http://www.boeing.com/boeing/rotorcraft/military/v22/

Liaoning Photo: PLA Navy

 All information on this post is freely available from non-classified web sources.

 

 

 

 

 

                        (NASA Satellite Image 2013)

ASEAN Environmental ministers from Singapore, Brunei, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia met in Brunei on April 2 to discuss ongoing efforts to counter transboundry haze.This was the 16th Meeting of the Sub-Regional Ministerial Steering Committee (MSC) on Transboundry Haze Pollution.The ministers noted the unfavorable conditions for 2014 brought about by below-average rainfall. This condition is likely to persist until October 2014. 

 On the positive side the ministers commended Indonesia for its efforts in implementing its Plan of Action (POA) dealing with transboundry haze. They also commended Indonesia for its efforts to expedite the process of ratification of the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundry Haze. In addition the ministers provided guidance on implementation of MSC activities to include:

• monitoring
• fire prevention
• establishing a Task Force to deal with fire suppression

 ASEAN has been dealing with the Transboundry Haze problem since 1997 when it formed the Regional Haze Action Plan (RHAP) to deal with prevention, monitoring and mitigation. Malaysia was tasked with taking the lead in prevention, Indonesia with mitigation and Singapore with monitoring. The RHAP lead to the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundry Haze Pollution that was adopted in 2002 and entered into force in 2003.

 Haze is defined as dust, smoke and dry particles in the atmosphere that distort clarity and limit visibility. In quantity, haze can be considered another form of pollution which degrades air quality and can lead to serious short and long term harm for human health.

The ASEAN area’s recent problems arise from a combination of dry weather that encourages the development of wildfires, and the clearing of land for commercial purposes. Traditional slash and burn methods of agriculture also contribute to a lesser degree.

While the 16th MSC’s meeting noted ongoing progress in dealing with the problem, the most worrying part of its statement is the prognosis for the continuation of dry conditions for the year 2014 which could lead to the formulation of a myriad on hotspots, sending smoke and particles into the atmosphere and threatening the region even further.

16th MSC Cross Border Meeting Final Media Release: http://app.mewr.gov.sg/web/contents/contents.aspx?contid=1959

 

 

 

 

                          ( Photo: China Daily)

                             by David Parmer

An old expression from American baseball is: You can’t tell the players without a scorecard.This means you can’t understand a situation until you have some concrete information. This concept clearly applies to the Internet in China. It is hard to easily describe the vibrancy, the fluidity, the size and scope of China’s Internet. Not only are there a multitude of players, but positions are always changing. Reports rate the players in search, e-commerce or social media, but just a few months later, the data is obsolete. Companies jockey for position, and players rise and fall in ranking. Try to find out who has the biggest market share in the search category, for example, and you will probably come up with Baidu, but then the second to fifth tier search companies seem to be always changing in terms of rank and users depending on who is reporting, and who is counting. The Chinese Internet has about 591 million users, this seems to be the agreed-upon figure, after that all bets are off.

 Search

Baidu        50% to 60%

Qihu (360) 20% to 25%

Sogu         10% to 12%

Google      1.3% to 1.6%

In March 2014 a government backed search engine ChinaSo was launched with the backing of Xinhua and China Mobile. Most analysts have low expectations for this new service.

 e-Commerce

Chinese e-commerce is a two- tier system with B2C (Business to Customer) and C2C (Customer to Customer) models in place. The leaders are:

 B2C

TMall (Alibaba)      50%

Jindong (Tencent)  17%

 C2C

Taobao (Alibaba)

PaiPai   (Tencent)

 Figures for B2C sales were $25.6 billion, and a whopping $71 billion for C2C. Of interest in the e-commerce segment is a reported migration of customers from C2C digital market places to B2C sites. Reasons given are that customers are tired of shoddy goods and are looking to more vendor reliability.

Social Media

In social media the Alibaba vs Tencent model continues. eModeration reports that 91% of Chinese Internet users have a social media account. The numbers for early 2014 look like this:

 QZone (Tencent)               712M users

Tencent Weibo                  507 M users

Sina Weibo                        500 M users

We Chat (QQ)                   300 M users

Pengyou                            259 M users

As mid-year 2014 approaches, it looks like his year will be another dynamic year for China’s Internet. And with the economy officially shifting to a domestic consumption model, the non-stop development, expansion and dynamism of China’s Internet can only continue to grow.

 (Data: eModeration/Tech in Asia)

 

 

 

                        (Photo: U.S. Dept. of Def.)

                              by David Parmer

For many Americans, a trip to China is a once in a lifetime dream. They get to see Beijing, tour the Forbidden City, meet Chinese people, soak in the culture and have some real Chinese food. And even on a business trip it is possible to squeeze in some of these things. But for U.S. Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel, China was no dream vacation this April. In fact it was not even a great business trip.

 On April 7, the Secretary landed in Qingdao on China’s eastern coast following a meeting with ASEAN defense ministers in Hawaii and a drop-in at Japan. As the first event of his visit, he toured China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, where he was briefed and met with crew members. Hagel was the first foreign dignitary to be accorded this honor. China presented this as a show of transparency. From here things became less cordial.

 On April 8, Hagel met with Fan Changlong, Vice Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, who told him bluntly that China was dissatisfied with remarks he made at the ASEAN meeting and while in Japan. Later in the same day China’s Minister of Defense and the U.S. Secretary of Defense held a joint press conference at Defense Headquarters in Beijing, where both traded barbs. The New York Times reported that General Chang said “China has indisputable sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands.” He also boldly asserted: “The Chinese military can assemble as soon as summoned, fight any battle and win.” On the status of U.S. allies, Secretary Hagel stated, “The Philippines and Japan are longtime allies of the United States.” “We have mutual self-defense treaties with both of these countries.”

 On April 9, Secretary Hagel concluded his visit by meeting with China’s president, XiJinping in Beijing. It was reported that in the meeting he asked for China’s cooperation in containing North Korea. President Xi noted that Hagel’s meeting would lead to better military-to-military understanding. On April 10, Secretary Hagel was off to Mongolia for the last stop on his Asian tour. As for his China visit, it might have been a bit rough business-wise, but he did get to visit the Forbidden City.

 

 

 

                      (Photo: Wikimedia: Lexingtamenkims)

                                      by David Parmer

Hangzhou in China’s southern Zeijang province has been known for it scenic beauty and charm for centuries. One of its most famous visitors, Marco Polo called it the “most beautiful and elegant city in the world.” Not surprisingly, it is a major tourist attraction, with more than 80 million visitors both foreign and domestic visiting in a year.

Hangzhou’s gem is the West Lake, perhaps one of the most photogenic and photographed tourist attractions worldwide. Outside the city are the tea fields which produce Longjing, or Dragon Well tea. And temples and pagodas abound. For a romantic vacation, visit Hangzhou. That’s it? Not quite.

                              (Photo: Hangzhou.gov.cn)

Hangzhou, located 125miles (200km) southwest of Shanghai, has another face. It is a powerhouse of provincial and national development. Of note are its “big five” development zones.