カテゴリー: 議論の場

                “Empires wax and wane; states cleave asunder and coalesce.” 

This is the opening line of China’s great 14th century novel, The Romance of the Three Kingdoms ( San Kuo Chi Yen-i). And while it might have been an accurate description of the Three Kingdoms period, it might also be a real template to examine our own era.  There are many examples of this process since the close of WWII. The most dramatic would be Russia’s hegemony over eastern Europe in the 1940s and 1950s, and then the gradual dissolution of that hegemony with the defection of Yugoslavia, and finally the dramatic disintegration of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall. In the 1990s we saw the breakup of Yugoslavia and the creation of new ethnic-based states. In more recent times in the Middle East and North Africa governments have fallen and tribal and ethnic loyalties have become the basis for nation states. And now we have Ukraine apparently about to “cleave asunder” over ethnic lines. So this week’s question is this: Do you agree that the breakup of states is inevitable, or do you think that national stability is a possibility? Log in and post your thoughts.

At the start of his Asian trip U.S. President Barack Obama clearly stated that the Senkaku Islands as they are known in Japan come under the provisions of the U.S.-Japan defense treaty. At the same time Mr. Obama stated that he hoped the issue between Japan and China over the disputed islands could be settled in an amicable manner. While Mr. Obama says no line has been drawn, what he has said means the U.S. would come to the aid of Japan in the event of any Chinese military action with regard to the Senkaku Islands. (Known as the Diaoyu in China). We now approach mid-year 2014.  The question is what will happen? How will this play out? Will tensions rise this year, will there be incidents in the disputed islands? Log in and give us your opinion. 

These days a large portion of what is bought and sold all over the globe is done electronically. While so-called bricks and mortar stores probably will not disappear completely, more and more of their business is lost to online e-commerce. Shopping online is clearly here to stay. But is it for you? Many people prefer to shop (at least initially) in a traditional store, to see and feel the goods and to interact with the seller. Others are quite content to shop and pay electronically. So what is your opinion? Which do you prefer, shopping online, or shopping in person? Or both? Please post your comments once you have logged in.

 

 

Tensions continue to rise in East Asia. Japan and China spar over the Senkaku/Diaoyu issue. Korea and Japan still mull historical issues and North Korea continues to be unpredictable. The Philippines and China are in a dispute over territorial waters. And Taiwan buys more arms from the U.S. while experiencing domestic unrest. At a global security conference on Feb. 2, 2014, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that East Asia is like 19th century Europe. He said  “Between Japan and China, the issue for the rest of us is that neither side be tempted to rely on force to settle the issue.” The Wall Street Journal reported that a top U.S. official, Admiral Harry B. Harris Jr. told a naval conference in Australia on April 9, that “There’s both growing uncertainty in the region and increasing tensions–a witches’ brew, if you will, for miscalculation,” So what will happen? Will miscalculations lead to more than a war of words? Can we expect a genuinely “hot” incident this year? Give us your thoughts on this matter.

The beginning of the 21st century seems to be bringing forth a new type of democracy spawned by technology and the social media. Mass protests are easy to organize, and tens of thousands of people can be mobilized in a relatively short period to support or oppose some issue or cause. Except in what is know as direct democracy, where the people exercise power directly, most democracies have representatives of the people who following their wishes enact law and public policy. In the 21st century we have seen more and more action by citizens to protest the behavior of their leaders or government. This has often lead to bloody confrontation and even to the overthrow of certain governments. In many of the cases worldwide, citizens ignore their elected representatives and take to the streets.But what form of government is this? Is this democracy or anarchy? What do you think? Where do citizen protests end? How should democracy function in the 21st century, and is there anything better available? Please post you thoughts and comments.  

                       (Santa Clara Valley-Wikimedia)

Northern California’s Silicon Valley, an area running roughly from San Francisco down to San Jose is synonymous with high technology, innovation and creativity. Certain historical trends came together to make the Valley what it is, including the explosive growth of the American economy after WWII and the need for military technology during the Cold War. From the 1970s on Valley culture developed, producing such giants as Apple, CISCO Systems, Intel etc. Even today this area in the Santa Clara valley leads the world for new and creative thinking and innovation. So will there ever be another Silicon Valley? What about Japan? Could such an area come in to being? Could Japanese government or industry create one? A few years ago there was talk about doing just that: setting up a kind of “Silicon Valley” in Okinawa. But it seems nothing came of it. So will Japan develop such a place, or will innovation stay centered in companies and universities? Let us know your thoughts on this. 

The story of the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 continues. For three weeks now the world has been waiting for some answers about the missing aircraft and its passengers. There is universal sympathy for the families and loved ones of those on board. While there are still no answers forthcoming, one phenomenon is emerging, that of international cooperation in the search. Naval and air forces from several countries including Malaysia, China, Japan, the US and Australia are taking part. Just a few short weeks ago the focus was on the possibility of an unfortunate confrontation as forces from Pacific countries flew above and sailed in disputed waters. So what has changed? Nothing except the will to work together for a common cause. When the plane is found, or the search abandoned, will all parties return to confrontation? Is it possible for all concerned to see the bigger picture and choose cooperation in working out their problems? Let us know your thoughts on this topic.

This past week there has been continuous coverage of the disappearance of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. And it seems no news is bad news. The story continues to unfold, but that can be of little comfort to the families of the missing passengers. These days most of us fly as a matter of course, some several times a year and some for business. It seems that an aviation-related story is sure to catch our attention because we do, all fly so frequently. And generally speaking, aviation-related stories do not make us feel more secure, but rather tend to increase our sense of unease. Statistics tell us that flying, particularly with the world’s best airlines is perhaps one of the safest things we can do. Statistics suggest then when flying with the top 39 airlines we have a chance of one in 19.8 million of meeting an untimely end. And yet do such numbers make us feel reassured? Can we take them personally? What are you thoughts on this topic? Please let us know.

 

The Ukraine crisis has been at the top of the news for almost four months now. It began on November 21,2013 when then president Victor Yanukovich abandoned a trade agreement with the European Union. This was followed by months of protest and finally resulted in the deposing of Yanukovich accompanied shortly thereafter by aggressive military moves by Russia. The crisis continues to simmer. The key now is the Crimea region, with its majority of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers. Russia’s vested interest not just in its fellow Russians, but also in its naval base at Sevastopol, headquarters for it Black Sea fleet. The question now is: What next? Will the Crimea region succeed from Ukraine, and will the two countries go to war over the Crimea? Will the people of the region vote to affiliate with Russia? And will the EU and the world powers allow this? Will the matter be settled peacefully and soon, or will it drag on and deteriorate into armed conflict? Let us know your views on this question.