1978-2018 – China Celebrates 40 Years of Reform and Opening Up.

This year marks 40 years of Reform and Opening Up in the People’s Republic of China. The achievements of the Chinese nation since 1987 are truly noteworthy.

The PRC came off a series of natural, economic, and political disasters during the first 30 years of its existence that would have left other countries poverty-stricken and in ruins. Yet starting with the reforms in agriculture promoted by Deng Xiaoping in the late 1980s, the genie of Chinese economic power and recovery would never go back in the lamp, but would perform miracles that could only be considered magical.

Agriculture reform and privatization of peasant plots resulting in a reported 25% increase in agriculture production was accompanied by the promotion of entrepreneurship and the admission of foreign capital into the PRC. These three activities followed quickly by the establishment of special economic zones acted to unleash the economic power of China and its energetic population.

In the course of the first 40 years, some 800 million people have been lifted out of poverty and the PRC has become the world’s #2 economy. Incomes have risen and China has become a consumer society with a high-speed rail network, wealthy first and second tier cities, a vibrant education system, a modern downsized and capable military, a space program, and a citizenry that travels to all cities around the globe.

To many, including President Xi Jinping, this first 40 years is just a prelude to the next 40 years in which China will become a “moderately prosperous society” taking its place and exerting leadership on the world stage. This strategic vision of China’s future was laid out by President Xi at the 19th Party Congress held in Beijing in 2017.

In Mr. Xi’s vision, China’s Belt and Road Initiative will bring greater prosperity not only to China, but to all who participate in it. BRI shows China’s commitment to globalization at the exact time when other countries are looking inward and ignoring the bigger global picture.

China intends to continue Reform and Opening Up, not just with BRI, but also by easing  restrictions on foreign investment and capital and by adding a further special economic zone in the form of the Hainan Free Trade Zone.

The next 40 years will indeed be eventful for China and her people. Please let us know your thoughts on this matter.

Photo: Jianjin Liang via flickr

 

PRC Rejects US Iran Sanctions.

In a regular press conference in Beijing on August 3, 2018 spokesman Geng Shuang of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs soundly rejected US sanctions against Iran. The following exchange took place between Geng and a reporter at the news conference:

Q: Bloomberg said that China rejects the US request to cut the Iran oil import. What’s your comment?

A: We have responded to similar questions many times before. China and Iran, under the precondition of not violating their respective international obligations, have maintained normal exchanges and cooperation. This is reasonable, legitimate, legal and beyond reproach. Meanwhile, China is always opposed to unilateral sanction and “long-arm jurisdiction”. China’s legitimate rights and interests should be upheld. This position is firm and clear.

In an article on August 9, the Tehran Times reported that China buys roughly 650,000 barrels / day from Iran at a cost of around $15 billion annually. It also reported that Iran’s CNPC and China’s Sinopec have significant joint ventures in Iranian oil fields.

China’s refusal to honor US sanctions is in line with its efforts to help save the JCPOA or “Iran nuclear deal” along with the original signers (China, Russia, EU, UK, France Germany and Iran) after the US’s unilateral withdrawal from the accord. For its part, China seems committed to the continued support of the JCPOA and to keeping Iran in the 2015 deal despite US sanctions.

Will China, Russia, and the Europeans be able to do this? Please let us know your thoughts on this.

Photo:  Ministry of Foreign Affairs PRC.

China, Europeans, Russia Struggle to Save Iran Nuclear Deal.

“Can the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) be saved?” That is the question now being pondered by Iran, the EU, Britain, France, Germany Russia, and China. Foreign ministers of these countries met in Vienna on July 6, 2018 to see what was possible in order to save the agreement.

While the meeting was said to be both amicable and productive, no concrete measures were agreed upon except continuing support for the agreement and a willingness to keep working to save it.

The members discussed ways to save trade and economic relations with Iran despite sanctions that will “snap back” in August and November. Their goal is to ensure the continuing smooth operation of:

  • Banking channels
  • Gas and oil exports
  • A favorable investment climate

While both sides to the agreement have a shared common goal, i.e. the continuance of the JCPOA, they have different concerns and opinions about specifics. Iran’s FM has indicated that Iran’s timetable is to get things done before the sanctions are re-imposed.

On the other hand, France’s FM, Jean Yves Le Drian, suggested that things might not be in place until November, which is well after the August deadline. Iran seems to have taken a “wait and see” attitude, but it is clear that Iran is focused on getting a real, positive outcome from the other side or it will go its own way.

What this all comes down to is how willing and able the signatory parties to defy the United States and the Trump administration. How far can the Europeans go in protecting their companies that are, or wish to deal with Iran in the light of the punitive US sanctions?

Certainly current events, like where Donald Trump calls the EU “a foe” or where he insults long-time US partner NATO, will only stiffen the resolve of the EU and France, Britain and Germany to do their utmost to save the JCPOA.

Meanwhile, China has made its position on the issue abundantly clear. In a regular press conference held on July 9, 2018, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying, in an answer to a question on the JCPOA stated:

“China put forth five propositions in a clear-cut manner. We emphasized in particular that the international rules should be followed and the major countries should have credibility and assume their due responsibilities. The unilateral sanctions should be abandoned because they are counterproductive. All relevant parties should stay committed to dialogue and negotiation and adopt a responsible attitude to discuss the issues of common concern.

 China will by no means accept the unilateral sanctions which are groundless under the international law and we will resolutely safeguard our own legitimate rights and interests.”   (Emphasis added)

Trend News Agency reported on July 13 that Japan’s Senior Deputy Foreign Minister Takeo Aikiba said that Japan fully supports the JCPOA and would encourage other nations to do the same. Aikiba’s remarks were made at the reception of credentials of Iran’s new ambassador to Japan.

While it seems that only Donald Trump, his steadfast ally Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump’s right-wing supporters are behind the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, the fact remains that the economic might of US sanctions are formidable indeed.

It will take some resolve, hard bargaining, and real creativity to save the JCPOA, but the signatories think it is worth saving. Let us hope that they can come up with a workable plan in record time to make this happen.

Please let us know what you think about this important issue.

Photo: European Union External Action

More US Marines Heading To Norway in 2019.

The US Marine presence in Norway will be doubled from 2019. Breaking Defense (3 July 2018) quoted Norwegian Defense Minister Frank Bakke-Jensen as saying:

“The Norwegian government has decided to welcome continued USMC rotational training and exercises in Norway with a volume of up to a total of 700 marines for a period of up to 5 years.

 Marines were first deployed in 2017 for training and exercises with the Norway military in response to concerns over further Russian adventures after the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Russia was not happy about the initial deployment, and is no more pleased with this action, describing the move as destabilizing. Norway has a border of roughly 100 miles with Russia, and the US Marines will be stationed 250 miles from that border according to a CNN report.

The US and Norway have an equipment prepositioning agreement dating back to 2006. Massive amounts of equipment to be used by reinforcing troops in the event of a major crisis are stored in 7 underground locations.

Joint training has already provided “benefits” to the US side in the form of cold-weather equipment failures. Training exercises have shown US Marine equipment to be in need of major upgrades to deal with real arctic conditions such as those that exist in the Nordic countries. The Marine command has investigated the equipment failures and taken steps to get better and modified gear into the supply pipeline.

Not only equipment but US doctrine has focused on desert/mountain operations for the last decade, but now attention must shift to the Nordic countries and to Arctic warfare, very different from the heat and dust of the Middle East and Asia. 

NATO and Russia’s neighbors are maintaining vigilance, and the US commitment to “boots on the ground,” even if ostensibly just for training, must be a welcome development.

Please let us know if you have any thoughts on this question.

Photo: Government.no

The Singapore Summit–What do you think?

Well, Chairman Kim Jong-un and President Donald Trump had their meeting in Singapore on June 12. It was certainly the biggest news event so far this year. Just a few months ago Trump was calling Kim “little rocket man” and Kim was calling Trump a “dotard.” And now the two portly leaders have met in Singapore, walked in the garden, shaken hands again and again, and talked of peace. Is it all too good to be true? Will there be peace in our time? Will Kim de-nuclearize his country, and will the US remove sanctions on the DPRK? We shall see. What is the next step, and where is this heading? Is it lasting peace or just false hopes?  Please let us know what you think about this.

Photo: Rodong Sinmun

 

Looking for a Job? How about POTUS in 2020?

            by David Parmer / Tokyo

Looking for a job? How about President of the United States (POTUS)? Well, OK, you have to be native born, but if you can get past that hurdle, well…why not? In the past candidates had to do boring things like be a senator or congressperson. Governor of a US state would also be a good bet. It never hurt to have a law degree as well. A knowledge of history, government, economics and the rudiments of diplomacy were also pretty helpful.

The election of Donald Trump in 2016 seems to have been a game changer in terms of job qualifications like the above for America’s highest office. However, the outsider as politician is not without precedent; in the 1980s former movie and TV star, Ronald Reagan became president for 8 years, and in California, bodybuilder and movie actor Arnold Schwarzenegger became governor. At that time their elections were anomalies and not business as usual. 

Now it seems that the outsider with no political experience, or even party affiliation can be considered for the nation’s highest offices including president.

Recently the news has focused on three individuals who seem to be viable candidates for president in the minds of many in the US. They are Howard Schultz, Oprah Winfrey, and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson.

Howard Schultz: 64

Net Worth: $USD 2.8 billion

Work Experience: Retired CEO and Executive Chair of Starbucks Coffee

Background:Mr. Schultz generally promoted a liberal agenda while at Starbucks. He is against gun violence, supports gay marriage, and concerned about race relations.

In a recent interview Mr. Schultz criticized the Democratic Party for going too far to the left. He was critical of many of the Democratic party’s ideas on healthcare and education. His criticism may have dampened his chances of a romance with the Democrats so he may have to run as an independent.

 

Oprah Winfrey: 63

Net Worth: $USD 2.9 billion

Work Experience: TV host, media executive

Background: Oprah Winfrey is seen as one of the most admired women in the US. Her programs are watched by millions. In January 2018 she made a rousing speech at the Golden Globes award show. Many people considered this “presidential.”Ms. Winfrey generally supports liberal causes and would surely run as an independent or Democrat.

 

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson: 45

Net Worth: $USD 190 million

Work Experience: College football player, pro wrestler, movie actor

Background: There has been much speculation about Mr. Johnson’s intentions since a 2017 interview where he said he was considering a run for president. Recently, he seems to be adopting a long-term approach and not focusing on 2020 because he says he has a lot to learn about the job.

Even considering that there is a 24-hour news cycle, and that broadcasters have many hours to fill with “content,” it is still hard to believe that the majority of Americans support such outsider candidates. A cynic might quote the great showman, P.T. Barnum who said: “Nobody ever lost a dollar by underestimating the taste of the American public.” And now that same cynic might add: or their intelligence.

It is one thing to be amused by a buffoon like Italian politician Silvio Berlusconi from afar but to have one elected as president of one’s own country, and have many people considering other under-qualified replacements, is deeply disturbing. Please log in and let us know what you think.

Photos of people all via Wikipedia

Photo: Pete Souza, The Obama White House via flickr

Europeans Work To Save JCPOA Iran Deal

                       By David Parmer / Tokyo

Since the US announced its decision to withdraw from the JCPOA on May 8, 2018, the European Union and the European countries who signed the agreement (France, Great Britain, Germany) have been working together with Iran in an effort to save it.

While the Europeans may take exception to Iran’s actions in its region, they do not seek to link these issues to the JCPOA as does the US.

 The sticking point seems to be that Europe must honor US sanctions or face problems with its US ally. The question then is can they walk this line? Can the Europeans and Iran keep the deal alive despite the promise of crushing US sanctions? Please let us know your thoughts on this most important question.

 Below are the remarks by HR/VP Frederica Mogherini after an EU/E3 and Iran meeting on May 15, 2018.

 Remarks by High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini at the press conference following ministerial meetings of the EU/E3 and EU/E3 and Iran

I just met with the Foreign Ministers of France (Jean-Yves Le Drian), Germany (Heiko Maas), the United Kingdom (Boris Johnson) and of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Mohammad Javad Zarif) this afternoon and this evening, in two separate meetings, to discuss our common lines and the work ahead of us, following the announcement made by the United States of its withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear deal. 

We recalled our commitment to the continued, full and effective implementation of the Iran nuclear deal that was unanimously endorsed by the UN Security Council Resolution 2231, as a key element of the global nuclear non-proliferation architecture and a significant diplomatic achievement. 

We, together, regretted the withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear deal and we recognised that the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions and the normalisation of trade and economic relations with Iran constitute essential parts of the agreement.

We stressed the commitment we all share to ensure that this will continue to be delivered and we agreed to this end to deepen our dialogue at all levels. 

By the way, our experts were working together already today for many hours.

We undertook, in particular, to launch intensive expert discussions – that, as I said, have already started today – with Iran, addressing the following issues with a view to arriving at practical solutions in the next few weeks:

Maintaining and deepening economic relations with Iran;

The continued sale of Iran’s oil and gas condensate petroleum products and petrochemicals and related transfers;

Effective banking transactions with Iran;

Continued sea, land, air and rail transportation relations with Iran;

The further provision of export credit and development of special purpose vehicles in financial banking, insurance and trade areas, with the aim of facilitating economic and financial cooperation, including by offering practical support for trade and investment;

The further development and implementation of Memoranda of Understanding and contracts between European companies and Iranian counterparts;

Further investments in Iran;

The protection of European Union economic operators and ensuring legal certainty:

And last but not least, the further development of a transparent, rules-based business environment in Iran.

We reaffirmed together our resolve to continue to implement the nuclear deal in all its parts, in good faith, and in a constructive atmosphere, and we agreed to continue to consult intensively at all levels and also with other remaining participants of the Joint Commission to the JCPOA.

We will also hold a Joint Commission meeting in Vienna next week at the level of Deputy Foreign Ministers or Political Directors – which is the usual level at which the Joint Commission meets – and obviously in the coming days we will continue to work along these lines following the good exchanges we had today, during the day and during the evening.

All in all it was a positive meeting. It allowed us to agree on a common set of lines of action and measures to put in place on which we will, as I said, start working as of tomorrow – some of the work has already started.

I will brief the [weekly meeting of the] College of the [European] Commission tomorrow morning on this. In particular, we will discuss some of the aspects of these measures that refer to work done at the level of the European Commission.

We also decided that EU Member States – starting with the E3 but also other Member States – will work on complementary mechanisms and measures, not only so as to go at the European Union level but also at national level to, in particular, protect the economic operators of the EU Member States. And I will have the opportunity to also brief the Heads of State or Government of the 28 EU Member States tomorrow evening at the leaders’ dinner that we will have in Sofia. The E3 leaders will also be present and we will have, I believe, at that moment a first exchange also with the other 25 Member States. 

Let me stress that the implementation of the JCPOA is also on the agenda of our next Foreign Affairs Council in some 10 days from now [on 28 May 2018]. So the Foreign Ministers of all the 28 Member States will have – at the latest at that stage – the possibility of working together on common work along these and similar lines.

Link to the opening remarks

 

Q: You listed a number of measures. What are they? Are they promises? Pledges? Things that we will do or things that both sides are aspiring or have set as objectives to do? And is there any guarantee that you can offer that you can even maintain the same level of trade as Europe currently has with Iran in the coming months and years? 
 
That is the aim we have. The list of issues I have mentioned are the issues we have decided to address with the aim at arriving at practical solutions. So this is not a set of measures, this is a quite wide and broad set of issues that we see a need to address and on which we have decided to start working – actually the work has started today already – working together in a closely coordinated manner, including, I want to stress, with other Member States, to arrive at practical solutions within the next few weeks. So it is issues that we see the need to address and on which we will work together to find practical solutions in a short amount time.

The practical solutions we would be working on – and we are working on – are obviously of a different nature depending on the different issues we are talking about. I am sure that as the days go by you [press and media] will have technical debriefs on the substance of the different strands of work. But again, already now we have a quite clear list of issues to address.
 
The issue of what we can ensure or guarantee is something I want to address very clearly. We are operating in a very difficult context and this is something the European people know, the Iranian people know, the leaderships know. It is a difficult environment after exactly this time last week we heard President [of the United States, Donald] Trump’s announcement.

Having said that, we are determined to ensure that the JCPOA stays in place. We know it is a difficult task, but we are determined to do that and we have started to work to put in place measures that help to ensure that this happens. This is true on the European side and we have seen the same willingness and determination on the Iranian side. 

So I probably cannot talk about legal or economic guarantees, but I can talk about serious, determined, and committed work from the European side – also from the Iranian side – to keep our commitments. And normally when we work together – committed, determined, with good faith and good will, even in difficult circumstances – we get to some achievements.

Q: Do you think that you will be able to reach a conclusion within the remaining time? Do you think that it is possible to have an extension of this time? What will be the outcome of these negotiations – will it be a statement or a written text? Will there be provisions added as an attachment to the deal? 

We are we working on finding practical solutions. The agreement is complex enough, long enough, detailed enough. It does not need to be changed, modified or have any addition. Everything is already written there.

We simply committed to fully comply with all the commitments taken there, which means for the Iranian side the nuclear-related commitments, and from our side and from the side of the rest of the international community, in particular the commitments related to the economic benefits the Iranian people need to see as an outcome of their own implementation of the Iran deal. 

So, we are not talking about annexes or modifications of the agreement at all; we are talking about setting up concrete measures, concrete practical solutions to address these issues, which could take different forms depending on the different issues covered – but something very concrete, very practical and hopefully very operational and very quickly. 

About the timing, as I said, we have already started the work, actually even before today. Today the experts exchanged for many hours in a very productive manner and we will continue this work both at the Commission level with the Member States, starting tomorrow evening to share the state of play with all the 28 Member States’ Heads of State or Government. Capitals in the European Union will obviously look at how to complement European mechanisms or solutions we could find. The speed of the process is and has to be fast. I cannot tell you two days, two weeks or more, but we talked about the need to do this exercise in the next few weeks. 

Q. Did the Iranian side give you a timeframe that it considers to be a minimum to find solutions and did it indicate what would happen if the solutions you talked about are not found in time? Is the blocking statute on the agenda from the EU’s perspective?

On the blocking statute, I would expect to discuss this already tomorrow in the [weekly meeting of the] College [of the European Commission].

On the issue of the timing, there was no unpleasant negotiating style exercise among us. We all share the same objective related to the full implementation of the JCPOA. 

We have many other disagreements on many other fields, but tonight the focus was on the JCPOA implementation. So, in this respect, it was a very constructive, positive meeting, indicating on all sides the awareness of the urgency of finding solutions, not for the sake of a calendar, but because if we want to save this deal – which is not an easy exercise – we know that the sooner we manage to do it, the better and the easier it will be. 

Again, it will not be easy, but if I can use the metaphor that some raised around the table, we all have a relative in intensive care and we all want to get him or her out of intensive care as soon as possible.

Q. In case these steps that you’ve discussed are successful, would you imagine that this will open further negotiations with Iran on the conflict issues like ballistic missiles, the future of the nuclear deal and Iran’s intervention in Middle East conflicts. 

One thing that is very clear to all of us Europeans is that with the nuclear deal in place we have a better chance to address any other issue we have to address with Iran, be it missiles, be it regional issues. 

We are very clear on the fact that there is no connection between the two; the nuclear deal was reached and is working exactly because it is nuclear-related – that was a decision taken fifteen or sixteen years ago, and we stay true to our commitments that are in this context, nuclear-related.

Obviously, this doesn’t exclude all the other issues we discussed with Iran and that we need to address with Iran in a separate manner. We have always been clear on this: that there are more chances, more possibilities to open avenues for discussions with Iran on other issues, if the Iran nuclear deal stays in place rather than not.

We will see what will happen in the future. You know that for us Europeans it is very important to address also other issues. Tonight, the main goal is to save the Iran deal and to preserve all its provisions. 
We believe that without that in place, it would be very difficult to have any basis for talking or negotiating anything else. On the contrary, that could be a good basis for the future, but the future is the future. 

Photo: Frederica Mogherini, FACEBOOK

Ma, Ma, Ma, Ma – Taiwan’s Game Changer?

                   by David Parmer / Tokyo

Look who’s back. Or so it seems. On May 6, 2018 the South China Morning Post reported that former Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou was making something of a comeback. The SCMP noted Ma’s enthusiastic welcome when visiting various areas of Taiwan with people glad to see him and shake his hand.

This is a stark contrast, as Ma’s popularity at the end of his 8-year term as president was in the low-low area, and the Kuomintang’s loss to the Democratic Progressive Party was seen as his responsibility. President Ma has been keeping a fairly low profile, but now in the middle of current President Tsai Ing-wen’s 4-year term he is be back on the radar. Ma has made 4 overseas trips since leaving the presidency, the most recent to San Francisco’s Bay Area where he visited tech companies, paid his respects to the Sun Yat-sen memorial and gave a lecture at Stanford University.

And then there is the talk that Ma might be considering another run for president in 2020. It would be a precedent-setting move, but possible. It seems the constitution does not specifically forbid it, just prohibits a third term after two consecutive terms.

One factor that might contribute to Ma’s political resurrection is Tsai’s lackluster performance in her first two years in office.

After a rousing inauguration speech filled with promise, Tsai has seemingly been sleepwalking through her first two years in office. It seems she lacks direction and is receiving poor advice from those around her. Her recent embrace of the US Taiwan Travel Act seems ill advised at best. She gets not much for her support of this Trump administration initiative, and it has just annoyed Beijing and strengthened the PRC’s resolve on the “Taiwan question.”

At the end of April 2018 in an interview Tsai said that she was willing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for “peace and stability.” Really? President Tsai has no real bargaining chips that would be worthwhile to Mr. Xi, or that would encourage him to sit down at the table with Tsai. What could she offer him? Better cross-strait relations? From Mr. Xi’s point of view she and the DPP’s position on the 1992 Consensus are the problem.

Tsai seems to have painted herself into a corner and, just in time, Ma Ying-jeou shows up again. Unlike Tsai, ex-President Ma has a lot to offer Beijing. During his term of office relations were warm, commerce was booming and mainland tourists flocked to Taiwan. During Ma’s presidency there were Taiwan companies and mainland companies in Taiwan to the extent that there was a blending of economies.

From Beijing’s point of view the metamorphosis of the economy could be seen as a gradual integration of Taiwan back into the fold. This, of course, was not acceptable to Taiwan nationalists like the DPP. The gradual melding of the economies over the years and an eventual return of Taiwan to the PRC without war would be something that the PRC would greatly favor.

A peaceful solution to the Taiwan question might start with a return to power of Ma Ying-jeou, or at least the return to power of a pro-Beijing KMT in 2020. Please let us know your thoughts on this.

Photo: Ma Ying-jeou Brookings Institution via flickr

Indian PM Narendra Modi To Head To China Again

                  by David Parmer / Tokyo

This week India’s PM, Narendra Modi heads to China for a fourth times since 2014. On April 27-28 Mr. Modi will meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in the cities of Wuhan, Hubei Province for an “informal summit.” While improved relations with one’s neighbors is a good thing, generally speaking, expectations seem to be fairly modest for this Modi-Xi meeting.

Items on the agenda include re-opening a route to Tibet’s sacred Mt. Kalish and information sharing on hydrological data relating to the Brahmaputra and Sutlej rivers. The other stated aim of the meeting is to reduce any lingering tensions from last year’s 73-day Doklan/Donglang standoff along their border.

The real purpose for the “summit” seems to be obscure. What exactly does each side expect to gain, or what message do they want to send to the world? Maybe Mr. Xi, who seems to view things in the long term as well as the short term, sees it in China’s long-term interest to have better relations with India.

China has always been stronger in its border confrontations with India, that is obvious. On the other side of the coin, China is weak in the Indian Ocean where it has to bring its assets thousands of miles south and west to project power. So China might have the upper hand on land, but it is apparent that the sea, particularly the Indian Ocean will go to India.

For Mr. Modi, maybe going to China, dealing with a troubling situation, and perhaps getting some concessions from the Chinese, may make him look good in the eyes of Indian voters. So going to “the Chinese court” every year may just gain Mr. Modi some real benefits for his country and for his own re-election in 2019.

Please log in and give us your thoughts on this matter.

Photo: Narendra Modi 2016 flickr

Their Man In Havana–Miguel Diaz-Canel

                   by David Parmer / Tokyo

“I assume this responsibility with the conviction that all we revolutionaries, from any trench, will be faithful to Fidel and Raul, the current leader of the revolutionary process,” (Miguel Diaz-Canel, Inaugural Address)

On April 19, 2018 Cuba inaugurated its first non-Castro leader since 1959. Miguel Diaz-Canel, a Communist Party of Cuba stalwart was elected as President of the Council of State and Council of Ministers by an overwhelming majority. Raul Castro (86) will step back from the spotlight, but will not disappear just yet. Castro is still head of the Cuban military and Communist Party of Cuba.

Diaz-Canel (57) is a lifelong Communist. Trained as an electrical engineer, he served in the Cuban military then entered politics. In 2003 he was party leader in Villa Clara Province and subsequently party leader in Holguin province. In 2009 he was appointed Minister of Higher Education, and in 2013 he became First Vice President of Cuba.

In his inaugural address Diaz-Canel acknowledged the continuing leadership and guidance of Raul Castro and promised the continuity of the Cuban Revolution. He ruled out a return of capitalism to Cuba.

Some observers suggested a no-change policy in Cuba would be the norm during Diaz-Canel’s presidency. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence tweeted about the US standing with the Cuban people and about free and fair elections etc. etc.

What cannot be denied is that Cuba is having a smooth transition of power from its first generation of revolutionaries to the next generation of Cubans born after the revolution. There is much to be said for such a bloodless and orderly transition of power despite its lack of glamor and entertainment value.

What is next for Cuba? If the past is anything to rely on, Mr. Diaz-Canel will find his footing, consolidate his power base, and make his mark on Cuban history and politics. Media reports suggest that the economy is the big concern of the Cuban people. The question is what reforms will we see under the new president?

Now it is true that he is watched over by a Castro, but a Castro who has shown himself to be cautiously reform-minded. Will President Diaz-Canel, in the coming years, be able to create something like “Socialism With Cuban Characteristics”? It seems there is a good chance that this just might happen.

Please log in and let us know what you think.

President Diaz-Canel speech (Spanish)

Photo:  President Diaz-Canel, Sierra Maestra Newspaper