(Hong Kong From Peak. Photo: Y.O.)

                             by David Parmer

On a dark and rainy July 1, 1997 Hong Kong reverted to Chinese sovereignty  after 156 years of colonial rule. The rain fell, the People’s Liberation Army marched in and the British sailed away. And that was that.  In the lead up to the handover negotiated years before between Britain’s Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, and Chinese leader Deng Xiao-ping anxiety about the future of the new Special Administrative Region was high. Many Hong Kongers headed overseas, or at least set up bases there. Destinations of choice included Canada, Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom.

July 1, 1997 came and went, and life went on. Some things remained the same, for example the use of English in schools, the freedom of the press, the use of SAR passports, and the British style of driving on the left. Also some roads’ British names remained. Changes after 1997 included the method of electing Hong Kong’s Chief Officer, the use of the PRC and Hong Kong flags, and the use of currency without the Queen’s picture on it.

Life went on, and problems remain. Pollution, just as in the rest of China is a serious threat to health. In 2003 Mainland tourists were allowed to come to  Hong Kong on an individual traveller basis instead of only as members of a group. Mainland tourism has continued to mushroom, with 2013 numbers set at 40 million visitors.

The New York Times online reported that on May 27, 2014 Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying had proposed a 20% reduction in the number of Mainland tourists as one option to handle the flood of visitors. Predictably the business community was not enamored of his proposal. Other complaints against the Mainlanders include the use of health services, the buying of large quantities of baby formula and the driving up of property prices.

On the 16th anniversary of the Hong Kong handover in July 2013 a huge demonstration was held, with participants numbering any where from 60,000 to 400,000. In 2014 another demonstration is planned for June 20-22 by a group calling itself Occupy Central to hold what it says will be an “unofficial referendum.”

So after 17 years, life goes on in Hong Kong as it does it most other parts of the world-not without its pleasures, but not without its problems either.

                                         Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping (Photo: CICA Summit)

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin was in China this week on a state visit and at the same time to attend the fourth Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA). The conference was held in Shanghai on May 20-21.

The conference has been held every four years since 1992. It was first proposed by Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev to promote peace, security and stability in the region. China’s CCTV reports that there are now 24 member states and 13 observer states that make up the conference. Topics addressed covered are:

• Terrorism
• Drug trafficking
• Separatist and ethnic forces
• Environmental issues
• Maritime issues
• Energy

 This year’s attendees, in addition to Putin included Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev, and U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

 The big news to come out of Putin’s visit was not the conference but the closing of a 30-year, China-Russia energy deal to supply Russian natural gas to China. A $400 billion agreement was signed between Russian’s GAZPROM and China’s National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). The deal had been on the table for a long time but was finally closed during Putin’s visit.

Lesser deals were reported including an understanding for joint development of  a long-haul airliner to compete with Boeing and Airbus, an agreement on the building of a bridge on the Amur River between China and Russia, and discussions on possible Russian weapons sales to China. 

                                                               (Photo: Tianjin Port)

Tianjin, north China’s largest coastal city is again on the move. A major seaport and gateway to China since the 19th century, Tianjin is still a hub of activity, with great plans for 2014 and beyond.  In September 2013 Shanghai set up a Hong-Kong like Free Trade Zone in its Pudong area. The government of the PRC is now looking at 12 more FTZ around the country, with Tianjin being a prime candidate. Central government survey has been completed and approval is in the pipeline. An expanded FTZ would include the Dongjiang Free Trade Port Zone, the Binhai New District and the Port of Tianjin.The Tianjin Port Free Trade website reports that 1500 new enterprises are to be introduced in 2014. 100 projects will start construction and several ecological projects will be launched

 

Myanmar is center stage for the 2014 ASEAN Summit to be held in its capital Nay Pyi Taw on May 10th and 11th. Representatives from 10 ASEAN countries will converge on the capital to discuss a range of issues including the ASEAN Charter and the planned ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) scheduled for a 2015 launch. The proposed AEC will reduce barriers on trade and movement of labor within the region. A key issue before the members will be the ongoing maritime disputes centering on the South China Sea. 

The Myanmar Times reported on May 9 that Myanmar is set to announce the Nay Pyi Taw Declaration to urge increased cooperation ahead of the 2015 start of the AEC. Myanmar, as 2014 ASEAN chair is responsible to make sure that all members are up to speed before 2015.

The May 10-11 meeting is the first major meeting Myanmar is holding as ASEAN chair. According to the ASEAN website: “Political, economic and administrative reforms in Myanmar since 2011 have made it possible for Myanmar to play a more active roe in regional and international affairs in accordance with its foreign policy objectives…”

                                                

                     by David Parmer

Are weapons systems just the best  hi-tech engines of war that a country can field at a given time, or can they give us a clear insight into the way a nation sees its future political-military role regionally or globally?

After landing in Qingdao on April 7, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel was treated to a rare look at China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning. Hagel was the first foreign visitor to set foot on the vessel. He reportedly toured the ship and chatted informally with crew members. After the visit the media speculated on the deeper meaning of the visit. Many suggested that it showed a willingness to engage in greater transparency on the Chinese side. Whatever the reason for the visit, the ship itself is no real mystery.

Launched in Russia in 1990, she was bought by the PRC from Ukraine and towed ( in an event-filled voyage) to Dalian, China in 1990. The cover story of the hull being used as a floating casino was dispensed with, and refitting began. The ship was re-named the Liaoning in honor of the province in which the refitting took place. It was later berthed at Qingdao in Shandong province. On September 25, 2012 the Liaoning was commissioned as a PLA Navy aircraft carrier. At the time of Secretary Hagel’s visit, the U.S. Department of Defense News reported that the Liaoning featured three launch stations for jets, and had a crew of 1500 sailors ( 90 females), 1/6 being officers. The Liaoning reported will accommodate 30, Chinese-built J-15 fighters. Several sea trials have already taken place since the 2012 commissioning.

 

                                                      (V-22 Osprey-U.S. Defense)

The V-22 Osprey is a tilt-rotor aircraft with both airplane and helicopter capabilities. It can perform both short takeoff and landings (STOL) and vertical takeoffs and landings (VTOL). It was jointly developed by Bell Helicopter and Boeing Rotorcraft Systems. According to Boeing, it can carry 24 combat-ready troops or 20,000 pounds of cargo. It has a range of 600nm and a maximum cruising speed of 280 knots. The Osprey has mid-air refueling capabilities as well.

The program that led to the development of the Osprey began in 1981, with the first flights in 1989. The U.S. Marines began operating the aircraft in 2007. Currently the Marines and  U.S. Air Force operate more than 200 Osprey. Since its introduction, it has seen combat duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

Accidents plagued the Osprey, and there has been a lingering doubt about its reliability despite the fact that, according to Boeing, it has “the lowest Class A mishap rate of any tactical rotorcraft in the Marine Corps during the past decade.” (Boeing.com) This was partly the cause of strong local opposition in April-June 2012 to the deployment of the Osprey to Futenma in Okinawa, Japan. Despite the opposition the aircraft was deployed in July 2012. In June 2013 during operation Dawn Blitz off the coast of California, Osprey were landed on Japan Maritime SDF vessels Shimokita and Hyuga. Osprey reportedly cost $70million each, and have an operating cost of $10,000/hour.

What can we infer from the deployment in the region of these two weapons systems? In the case of the Liaoning, with the commissioning of the ship China joined the aircraft carrier club, an exclusive group of 11 members. The U.S. leads the way with 11 carriers, with most other members having one or two at most. Aircraft carriers enable countries to project power well beyond their nautical boundaries. So is the purpose of buying, refitting, commissioning and operating the Liaoning to send out a state-of-the-art aircraft carrier? Probably not. But if a country is intent on building a naval air arm, it has to start somewhere, and the Liaoning is “somewhere.” Even if China could deploy the flotilla of ships necessary to service and protect the Liaoning, it would be no match for a U.S. carrier. The United States has 70-80 years experience with carrier-based naval aviation, China has a year and a half. Japan too, has vast experience with carrier-based naval aviation. Time magazine reports that China is now working on a second and home-made carrier, with four planned by 2020. So what is the Liaoning? It would be safe to say that it is at least two things: a symbol of China’s yet-to-peak rise to major regional and world power, and a floating university for the PLA Navy’s carrier-based fleet.

 And what does the deployment of the V-22 Osprey in Japan say about Japanese and U.S. policy for the near future?  Probably a lot. The Osprey which caused so much opposition among the Japanese public, might be the very thing that will significantly add to their security. Noted above were the landing of Osprey on Japanese naval vessels during military exercises off California in June 2013. During his recent ( April 2014) visit to Japan, U.S. president Barack Obama made it clear that the U.S. was firm in its commitments to Japan’s defense, including the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands now in dispute between Japan and China. Some strategists suggest that if military action takes place in the islands, it will be short and violent. With the capabilities of the V-22 Osprey, the U.S. could place boots on the ground quickly and in number, or could ferry Japanese SDF troops to Japan naval ships or to landing zones in the islands. The Osprey enables the U.S. and Japan to make a timely and powerful response to any land/sea provocation in the region.

Two weapon systems headed for an inevitable confrontation with the other side’s assets? Not necessarily. The Cold War showed that heavily armed adversaries could face off without major incident for extended periods. But both systems clearly signal readable national intent of the nations involved, and bear close watching in the future.

  PDF on Boeing web page: http://www.boeing.com/boeing/rotorcraft/military/v22/

Liaoning Photo: PLA Navy

 All information on this post is freely available from non-classified web sources.