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China Takes A Leading Role in Renewable Energy

by David Parmer/Tokyo

“Greenpeace estimates that China installed an average of more than one wind turbine every hour of every day in 2015, and covered the equivalent of one soccer field every hour with solar panels.” (NY Times, 5 Jan 2017)

As the US moves backward on environmental protection and withdraws from the Paris Agreement on climate change, China steps forward and takes world leadership. China understands that renewable energy is not the wave of the future, but the wave of now.

The numbers around this topic are not only telling, they are stunning. For example, Deutsche Welle reported on its website that not only was there a steady 3-year decline in the use of coal in China, there was also an 81% increase in solar electricity generation capacity and a 13.2 % increase in wind generation. The government has pledged to spend $360 billion on solar and wind development going forward.

China has promised to hit a number of ambitious environmental goals by 2030, however, the Shanghai Daily reported on 24 April 2017 that these goals might be met as early as 2025.

As renewables becomes cheaper than fossil fuel China will continue to enhance its energy security and reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. Chinese companies will not only become world players, but also come to dominate the global renewable energy industry.

After the June 1 announcement that the US would withdraw from the Paris Agreement, China began to look at partnering with local US governments. The first discussions were held in Beijing with California governor Jerry Brown.

While overall the situation internationally and domestically is positive, the transition to renewables for China comes with a few glitches. One such issue is solar curtailment; energy being generated but not being taken up by the grid. The oversupply of renewably-generated electricity must vie with traditional coal-generated electricity, and sometimes it loses out. Also, this coal-generated energy is not easy to phase out, and probably never will be. Many plants will use a higher grade, cleaner burning coal in the future.

From now on when there is any discussion at all about the production, sale and use of renewable energy, the mention of China and Chinese companies will be a matter of course.

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Photo: Windmills in Xinjiang by Chris Lim via flickr

By the Light of the Moon — Which way will South Korea turn?

By Bill Lee

How can countries persuade other countries to do what they want? The recent election in South Korea of Moon Jae-in as president will provide an interesting case study to answer that question. An activist-lawyer, Moon follows in the line of South Korea’s two past progressive presidents, Kim Tae-chung and Roh Moo-hyun. Although a liberal, Moon will likely find it difficult to reverse many of the policies of the last decade of South Korea’s conservative governance and promote progressive-like social welfare programs because of various constraints on him. For one, Moon won only a little over 42 percent of the vote, hardly an overwhelming vote of bedrock support. Moreover, according to South Korean law, he cannot even be certain of his Cabinet nominations since they must be approved by the national legislature.

First, Japan is keenly interested in which way Moon will turn in Japan-ROK relations. The previous progressive presidents, Kim Tae-chung and Roh Moo-hyun, took different stances towards Tokyo. Kim was conciliatory, willing to partially shelve the history problem; indeed, he proposed the joint study by both countries into the reading of their past history. Roh was more hardline, particularly regarding the sex-slave problem. The question is which tack Moon will take. Moon has called for a renegotiation of the sex-slave agreement between Seoul and Tokyo, but will he stick to that line? His position, now that he is president, is fluid, and it will be interesting to see how Tokyo can persuade him to keep the agreement and defuse the situation.

China will naturally also have its sights set on the Moon administration. The big issue is the land-based missile defense THAAD system, whose deployment in South Korea has enraged Beijing. China sees THAAD not as a deterrence against North Korea but as a threat to its own missile launch capability since its X-band radars could peer 2,000 kilometers into China. Beijing reacted by laying unofficial sanctions on South Korean goods and companies, calling for boycotts of South Korean products and tours to South Korea by Chinese citizens. Thus China has levied sanctions on both North and South Korea. Xi Jinping clearly dislikes Kim Jong Un. Could Pyongyang end up believing that it needs its nuclear arsenal not for defense against the United States but against China? Is that too farfetched? Moreover, with China’s sanctions and anger over the THAAD deployment, could Seoul actually begin to see THAAD as a deterrence not against North Korea but against China? In other words, could this be a trigger for Korean unification?

Kan Kimura, a professor at Kobe University and an expert on Korean Peninsular affairs, has pointed out in various articles that before activists of Moon Jae-in’s generation were “leftists,” they were “ethno-nationalists” who wanted to unify the two Koreas. Moon is reportedly keen to restart dialogue with Pyongyang. Kim Tae-chung of course launched the conciliatory Sunshine Policy towards North Korea. Two envoys that Moon sent to Japan and China are both former Kim Tae-chung associates. Will Moon’s “ethno-nationalist” blood heat up or at least soak in more sunshine?

How will China try to persuade South Korea to drop THAAD, by heavy-handed pressure and sanctions, or more diplomatic means? The future direction of the Korean Peninsula could depend on it.

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Photo by Startup Digital via Flickr

Bruce Lee Come Back! — Clash of Civilizations

By Bill Lee

Forget for a while whether Donald Trump will be impeached or not, or whether life on Earth as we know it is doomed because Trump pulls the United States out of the Paris climate change agreement. Two sports-related events took place in China recently that could have equally serious ramifications: the thrashing by mixed martial arts (MMA) fighter Xi Xiaodong, 37, of tai chi “thunder master” Wei Lei, 41, in Chengdu, and the razor-thin defeat of Chinese world Go champion, Ke Jie, 19, by Google’s AlphaGo, 3, in Wuzhen.

The fight between Xi and Wei was difficult to watch, especially if you blinked. Xi was immediately all over Wei, pummeling him ferociously and needing only ten seconds to end the bout. After the fight, the retired MMA fighter Xi was soon bombarded with criticism on China’s social media, excoriating him for disrespecting China’s martial arts traditions. Briefly shaken, Xi bounced back, claiming that Wei’s performances on TV claiming to use chi to create a force field that kept a pigeon on his hand were fake (the pigeon’s legs were taped to his palm, Xi alleged). Xi even challenged Jack Ma’s bodyguard Zou Shiming, a two-time Olympic boxing gold medalist and now world flyweight champ, to a fight. Millionaire Chen Sheng has also promised to put up $1.45 million as prize money for challengers to take on Xi and defeat him to preserve the dignity of Chinese martial arts. The Xi-Wei fight sent Netizens into heated debate on the legitimacy of tai chi as a martial art and the realism of MMA.

Although no blood was spilt — difficult to make a computer bleed — the AI Alphago algorithm program barely defeated Ke Jie, the world’s top Go player, in the first of three matches that will be no less violent mentally than the Xi-Wei fight — Go after all is a war game. Anyone who studies, for example, a chess game between a software program and a (human) grandmaster will be surprised at what seem to be the computer’s outrageous and completely out-of-the-box moves. An interesting aspect of these AI programs is that they challenge age-old assumptions about the right way to play. And they learn fast. Ke Jie was quoted as saying that last year when he played AlphaGo it was “humanlike” but this time it was like a “god.” Indeed, the creator of AlphaGo, Demis Hassabis, said that the program now learns faster by playing against itself; forget humans.

These two events seem to bode ill for human civilization. Although it may be like comparing apples and oranges, Xi Xiaodong’s devastation of Wei Lei seemed sure proof of the superiority of eclectic fusion. And there seems to be no doubt that the massive computing power and increasing algorithmic flexibility of AI will dominate human competitors. But, to wax lyrical, will anything replace the grace and philosophy of tai chi? Moreover, anyone who has seen an MMA fight cannot really think it is remotely human. And while humans will continue to lose Go and chess games to AI, they can fight back: just change the game to something like trying to persuade a diehard Trump supporter to change his mind. In the end, can any software creator ever make something as compelling and mad as Bobby Fischer?

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Bruce Lee photo by David Lau via Flickr

Ke Jie photo by Anekcen via Flickr

“Annual Meeting of the New Champions” to Open June 27 in Dalian

by David Parmer/Tokyo

This year marks the 10th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, or what is commonly called “Summer Davos.” The meeting will be held in Dalian, China from June 27-29. Participants numbering close to 2,000 from 90 countries will get together to converse, learn and strategize.

The theme for this year’s meeting is “Achieving Inclusive Growth in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.” It would be hard to over-emphasize how important this theme is, and how important it is that it be addressed by those whose mission it is to shape the remainder of this century and prepare humanity for the next century.

The WEF says of the Fourth Industrial Revolution:

“It is characterized by a fusion of technologies blurring the lines between the physical digital and biological spheres.” (Website)

Specifically, areas of concern according to the WEF are AI, robotics, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, nanotechnology and quantum computing The Dalian meeting will address three key areas:

Enabling emerging technologies
Preparing for systems leadership
Rethinking inclusive growth

Accelerated change will re-shape our planet beyond what we can now conceive, but it is the job of the world’s young leaders to make sure that change is sustainable and benefits humankind. Let us wish them a successful Davos 2017 in Dalian.

Annual Meeting of the New Champions, WEF

The Fourth Industrial Revolution, WEF

Photo: Dalian, China by Christian Mange via flickr

“High Crimes and Misdemeanors”

David Parmer/Tokyo

The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.

(Constitution of the United States, Article Two, Section Four. )

Donald Trump has been president for just over 120 days, and already the “I” word is being bandied about. Impeachment–the removal of elected and appointed officials for a variety of infringements including the very poetic “high crimes and misdemeanors.”

The process of impeachment is straightforward: the House of Representatives issues an indictment called Articles of Impeachment. An investigation is held, and upon the completion a vote is taken as to whether the matter is to be forwarded to the Senate. Senators must vote by a 2/3 majority to impeach and remove the official from office. Only two sitting presidents (Andrew Johnson 1868, Bill Clinton 1998) have been impeached, but neither was removed from office.

Could Donald Trump be impeached at this time? It seems unlikely. Not “very” unlikely, but unlikely. However, the case is building against him. Now there are three major issues that would be considered as grounds to start impeachment proceedings. These include:

Trump’s conflict of interest by not divesting or disclosing his overseas business connections
The sharing of classified information with Russia’s ambassador and foreign minister
The request to former FBI director James Comey to halt the investigation into the Trump campaign’s connection to Russia
The firing of Director Comey to terminate his investigation into the Trump campaign

While the above items may not be enough to get Mr. Trump impeached now, they are serious allegations that may eventually induce Republicans in the House and Senate to vote for Trump’s impeachment. The tipping point has not been reached. No, not yet. But Mr. Trump has proved time and time again that he is his own worst enemy, so we might yet see the US congress voting on Trump’s removal.

Photo: Ian Koski via flickr

How To Grab a Ride in Singapore – And Six Other S.E. Asian Locations

David Parmer/Tokyo

In the early 21st century, ride-hailing services service have changed the face of the global transportation system. It would seem that there is not much room in the market for new players, and yet, since 2012, Singapore-based Grab has been moving up as #1 service throughout Southeast Asia. Grab is now in six Southeast Asian countries including Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia. And according to the company’s website, Grab is also available in Beta form in Myanmar.

The company, which now has a valuation of $3 billion, was founded by two Harvard Business School classmates, Anthony Tan (34) and Tan Hooi Ling (32). They started on a shoestring in Malaysia, and reportedly make their share of mistakes along the way. Grab is now in 31 cities in six countries (plus Myanmar).They have partnered with China’s Didi Chuxing and Lyft in the US.

In Singapore Grab offers a variety of services including:

Grab Taxi
Grab Car
Grab Hitch
Grab Share
Grab Coach
Grab Shuttle

The keys to Grab’s success seem to be two: its tech, and its corporate philosophy. The Grab application for smartphones is designed to be more user-friendly than other applications of the same type. It lets the user connect to the closest Grab vehicle. This works out as being better for both the Grab driver and the prospective passenger.

As for the corporate philosophy, they company set out not only to make ride hailing safer, but also better. Grab screens its drivers in face-to-face interviews before taking them on board, and the company also pays them better by taking a lower-than-market commission from the drivers.

Perhaps the most interesting facet of the Grab corporate organization is GrabPay. This mobile payments application lets customers pay via smartphone. The company hopes to expand the use of GrabPay throughout the region and to have customers use the application not only to pay for transportation, but also to make purchases in shops, malls, restaurants etc.

Grab is headed for regional dominance in its chosen field and beyond. Time alone will tell whether Grab can take its regional success and move onto the world stage.

Photo: Grab website

“Jack Ma will protect you”

By Bill Lee

I wanna be just like Jack Ma. Who hasn’t dreamed of striking it rich on the Internet by selling what you think are “can’t miss” products? With unemployment among new university graduates a serious problem in China, many young people are opening online virtual shops, hoping to follow in the footsteps of their hero Jack Ma. Indeed, the government is encouraging this online entrepreneurship as a sponge for employment.

In 2013, China overtook the United States as the world’s biggest e-commerce nation. China’s e-tailing has been spurred by the massive diffusion of smartphones and the contours of the Chinese market — few national retail brand names, for example — which make it the perfect fit for e-commerce. Much has been written about the reasons for the success of Alibaba, JD.com, and the other online shopping giants, but certainly a major factor has been Alipay, which, unlike PayPal, puts the buyer’s money in a type of escrow account and only releases the payment to the seller when the buyer indicates his/her satisfaction with the delivered product, thus creating great trust among shoppers in the e-marketplace.

But what is remarkable from a development standpoint is the impact e-commerce seems to be having on relatively isolated rural areas. Unable to shop because there are no shops in villages, rural folk can now utilize online shopping to buy daily life goods that seemed unattainable only a few years ago. Alibaba’s Taobao Marketplace has created the “Taobao villages,” where service centers are set up to facilitate the villagers’ online shopping, throughout rural China. The access to the Taobao Marketplace enables villagers not only to purchase goods but also to sell local specialty products or goods they’ve thought up themselves, such as, one of my favorites, replicas of hats worn by Chinese soldiers during WWII. This all fits in nicely with the Chinese government’s desire to increase domestic consumption and develop China’s hinterlands. There are problems with China’s online commerce, of course — such as buyers extorting sellers to provide cash-backs to ensure good evaluations of their service, a crucial feature of online shopping in China — but China’s ingenious e-commerce system for rural areas can be a good model for developing countries.

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Photo via Flickr

Getting smart

By Bill Lee

Tensions have been ratcheted up to a near fever pitch in East Asia, to the point where Tokyo’s biggest subway company temporarily stopped its trains as a panicked precaution when North Korea launched another missile. But China has proposed a reasonable — though familiar — proposal for ending the crisis, and even President Donald Trump has done his part to move the situation in the right direction.

China has put forth its “suspension-for-suspension” proposal and “dual-track” approach. The “suspension-for-suspension” idea calls for North Korea to halt its nuclear and missile programs in exchange for the suspension of US-ROK joint military exercises, or vice-versa. Then the United States and North Korea work toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and a peace treaty in parallel. The plan seems to be the only real way to proceed. North Korea of course hates the joint military exercises right on the other side of their border. It is not difficult to see why. With memories of B-52s flattening all of its cities in the Korean War, Koreans are naturally loathe to see demonstrations of short-range attack capabilities aimed at them and still-flying B-52s, B-1 Lancer bombers, B-2 stealth strategic bombers, and F-35 attack fighters tearing around in nearby skies, not to mention hearing that the Navy Seal Team 6, which took out Osama bin Laden, and a Delta Force squadron are also participating in the military exercises, presumably as a precursor to a “decapitation” operation on Pyongyang. Nothing could possibly make North Korea want to develop its nuclear arsenal more to defend itself as these warm-ups on its border for an invasion.

What North Korea has repeatedly said is that it wants assurances of its security through a peace treaty with the United States ending the Korean War. And that is where Donald Trump has blundered in. Following up on his campaign willingness to share a “hamburger” with Kim Jong Un, Trump said at the end of April that he would be “honored” to meet the young North Korean leader. Liberals suffering from the Trump Derangement Syndrome see everything that Trump does or says is horrible and reject anything coming from the White House. But meeting directly with Kim Jong Un with the lure of a peace treaty in the offing is the one action that would give the young dictator the prestige and assurances to convince him to stand down his nuclear program.

Of course, there are numerous counterarguments against the Chinese dual-track approach and suspension-for-suspension proposal. The American military says that the military exercises are necessary to prepare for a contingency on the Korean Peninsula, but that is nonsense. Naturally, it would be better for the military forces to practice together as close as possible to North Korea, but it is not essential. With the computerization of flight and ground combat operations now, they could practice literally anywhere with good effect. And the objection to meeting directly with Kim Jong Un because it would reward him for “bad behavior” can be countered by looking at America’s own behavior towards North Korea over the years. And the argument that Kim could not be trusted to live up to an agreement assumes that no deal could ever be struck with North Korea. Imagine this: a state dinner for Kim Jong Un at the White House. Peace.

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Photo by Frederick Barr via Flickr

Dual-Use Research — A Pandora’s Box?

By Bill Lee

Scientists in Japan are desperate for research funds. Is the government stepping in to try to bribe scientists at universities to conduct research for military purposes?

Post-war Japanese scientists have mostly been adamant about rejecting any military-related research, particularly because of scientists’ cooperation with the military in the Second World War. In 1950 and 1967, the Science Council of Japan, the main organization representing scientists in Japan, issued statements declaring that academic research must never be conducted for “purposes of war” or “military purposes.” But with shrinking university and funding agency budgets, scientists may be tempted to change their stance.

In step Prime Minister Abe and the Ministry of Defense. Abe wants to bolster Japan’s military force, and military research is part of that. The government established the Acquisitions, Technology and Logistics Agency (ATLA) in 2015 to unify the development and procurement of Self-Defense Force equipment into one body. ATLA is offering funds to universities for dual-use technology research. Japan is strong in materials science, and an example of ATLA’s dual-use funding is research at Toyohashi University of Technology into filters for gas masks that can also be used for disaster prevention measures at chemical plants. ATLA’s budget for academic funding started out at a modest 300 million yen, increased to 600 million yen in fiscal 2016, and then ballooned to 11 billion yen in fiscal 2017, an 18-fold increase over the previous year’s budget. Scientific research is of course crucial for the development of military systems. As a case in point, the seemingly benign field of geophysics could be very important. For example, research into wave propulsion in water could be vital for technology to detect submarines, and research into gravitational fields could also help make missiles more accurate since their descent towards their targets is affected by the gravitational field in a particular geographic region.

The Science Council of Japan recently released a draft statement warning universities about conducting research for potential military purposes. But the statement has no binding power, and some scientists feel research for “self-defense” purposes is acceptable. In their quest for truth, will scientists be opening up a Pandora’s box?

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Photo by Mike Morash via Flickr

Diplomat’s diplomat

By Bill Lee

Japan recently decided to withdraw its PKO contingent from Sudan because of the deteriorating security situation there. Japan’s first PKO personnel were sent to Angola and Cambodia in 1992, but the initial destination for a Japanese PKO could have been Lebanon way back in 1958. At that time, Lebanon was in crisis because of the conflict between Christians and Muslims, and the United States actually landed thousands of its troops in Lebanon to prop up the pro-Western government. The situation became very tense as troops from the Soviet Union were also sent into the region to support the opposition and moves by Syria and Egypt, Soviet clients. The situation could have escalated into World War III. Fortunately, the United Nations intervened to resolve the stand-off.

Important to the UN’s efforts were contributions by the Japanese delegation, which drafted a proposal for resolving the crisis. The plan called for the establishment of a cordon sanitaire to separate the contending parties. The idea for the cordon sanitaire was accepted, and in gratitude, then-UN Secretary General Dag Hammarskjold asked Koto Matsudaira, the head of the Japanese UN mission, to have Japan send personnel to monitor the truce corridor. Believing it a great honor for Japan, Matsudaira quickly accepted the request. However, as soon as the request reached Foreign Ministry headquarters in Tokyo, officials realized that the dispatch of SDF personnel would be considered a violation of the Constitution, and the request was rejected. Moreover, Japanese newspapers got hold of the story and harshly criticized Matsudaira. In the end, Matsudaira was scorned by the government and the media as an unredeemed rightist.

Ironically, Matsudaira was one of Japan’s ablest diplomats ever. A very international (and rich) man, he received a doctorate from a French university at the end of the 1920s, and developed good ties with chateaux in Bordeaux. Matsudaira was the ambassador who started the tradition of grand dinner parties hosted by Japan’s UN mission in New York. At that time (1958), Japan was vying to become a nonpermanent member of the UN Security Council for the first time. The competition was very stiff, with Yugoslavia expected to get the seat. However, skilled at election campaigning, Matsudaira, who had briefly quit MOFA and run in a Lower House election in Tokyo, won votes, partly through his dinner parties. Making sure his guests were indulged with fine wines from Bordeaux, Matsudaira would put original Hiroshige ukiyo-e paintings under the napkins of the wives of the invited UN ambassadors from other countries. When they looked under their napkins and saw the beautiful prints, the wives would squeal with delight, and then, presumably urge their husbands to vote for Japan. Apparently, it worked, for Japan succeeded in getting voted onto the Security Council. Naturally, Matsudaira had other talents, such as his ability in French and Spanish, which helped him get votes from Francophone Africa and Latin America. Matsudaira was the ideal international diplomat, but he ended up rather scorned by Japan — he said he had friends only outside of Japan — and he was also critical of Japanese diplomats, whom he accused of lacking imagination, a trait that continues to this day. Matsudaira later became Japan’s ambassador to India and Bhutan.

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Photo by United Nations via Flickr