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US Withdrawal From JCPOA – Here’s Why.

Just over a month ago, on May 8, 2018, US President Donald Trump announced the ending of American participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or “Iran nuclear deal.” The following White House fact sheet explains the rationale behind the Trump administration’s reasons for doing so. While there has been much reporting around the US withdrawal, the reasons President Trump thinks this is not only necessary, but also in the best interests of the US and the world have not been clearly stated. This fact sheet makes the reasons for Mr. Trump’s action clear. The document contains three sections:

PROTECTING AMERICA FROM A BAD DEAL: President Donald J. Trump is terminating the United States’ participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran and re-imposing sanctions lifted under the deal.

IRAN’S BAD FAITH AND BAD ACTIONS: Iran negotiated the JCPOA in bad faith, and the deal gave the Iranian regime too much in exchange for too little.

ADDRESSING IRANIAN AGGRESSION: President Trump is committed to ensuring Iran has no possible path to a nuclear weapon and is addressing the threats posed by the regime’s malign activities.

The link below is to the original document. (Reading time: 7 minutes)

White House Gov. statement

Photo: Dave Stanley via flickr

The Singapore Summit–What do you think?

Well, Chairman Kim Jong-un and President Donald Trump had their meeting in Singapore on June 12. It was certainly the biggest news event so far this year. Just a few months ago Trump was calling Kim “little rocket man” and Kim was calling Trump a “dotard.” And now the two portly leaders have met in Singapore, walked in the garden, shaken hands again and again, and talked of peace. Is it all too good to be true? Will there be peace in our time? Will Kim de-nuclearize his country, and will the US remove sanctions on the DPRK? We shall see. What is the next step, and where is this heading? Is it lasting peace or just false hopes? Please let us know what you think about this.

Photo: Rodong Sinmun

Modi Keynote Spells Out Peaceful Vision for the Indo-Pacific Region

by David Parmer / Tokyo

“Asia of rivalry will hold us all back. Asia of cooperation will shape this century”

On June 1, India’s PM, Narendra Modi delivered the keynote at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue of the 17th Asia Security Summit in Singapore. PM Modi laid out his grand vision for a peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific region. He stressed India’s historical ties with the region going back to ancient times, and he outlined India’s view of the important work being done by the ASEAN nations. Modi’s tone was inclusive, statesman-like, positive, and non-combative. His grand vision stresses cooperation, not confrontation. The full English text is attached below. (Reading Time: 12 minutes.)

________________________________________________

June 01, 2018

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong,
Thank you for your friendship, your leadership of India-Singapore partnership and a better future for the region.
Defence Ministers,
Mr. John Chipman,
Dignitaries and Excellencies,
Namaskar and a very good evening to all of you!

I am pleased to return to a region, known to India since ancient times as सुवर्णभूमि, (the land of gold).

I am also happy to be here in a special year. In a land-mark year of India’s relationship with ASEAN.

In January, we had the unique honour of hosting ten ASEAN leaders on our Republic Day. The ASEAN-India Summit was a testimony of our commitment to ASEAN, and to our Act East policy.

For thousands of years, Indians have turned to the East. Not just to see the Sun rise, but also to pray for its light to spread over the entire world. The human-kind now looks to the Rising East, with the hope to see the promise that this 21st century beholds for the whole world, because the destiny of the world will be deeply influenced by the course of developments in the Indo-Pacific region.

Because, this new age of promise is also caught in shifting plates of global politics and the fault lines of history. I am here to say that the future we seek does not have to be as elusive as Shangri La; that we can shape this region in our collective hopes and aspirations. No where is it more apt to pursue this than in Singapore.This great nation shows us that when the oceans are open, the seas are secure, countries are connected, the rule of law prevails and the region is stable, nations, small and large, prosper as sovereign countries. Free and fearless in their choices.

Singapore also shows that when nations stand on the side of principles, not behind one power or the other, they earn the respect of the world and a voice in international affairs. And, when they embrace diversity at home, they seek an inclusive world outside.

For India, though, Singapore means more. It’s the spirit that unites a lion nation and a lion city.Singapore is our springboard to ASEAN. It has been, for centuries, a gateway for India to the East.For over two thousand years, the winds of monsoons, the currents of seas and the force of human aspirations have built timeless links between India and this region. It was cast in peace and friendship, religion and culture, art and commerce, language and literature. These human links have lasted, even as the tides of politics and trade saw their ebb and flow.

Over the past three decades, we have re-claimed that heritage to restore our role and relationships in the region.For India, no region now receives as much attention as this. And, for good reasons.

Oceans had an important place in Indian thinking since pre-Vedic times. Thousands of years ago, the Indus Valley Civilisation as well as Indian peninsula had maritime trade. Oceans and Varuna – the Lord of all Waters – find a prominent place in the world’s oldest books- the Vedas. In ancient Puranas, written thousands of years ago, the geographical definition of India is with reference to the seas: उत्तरों यत समुद्रस्य meaning, the land which lies to the north of the seas.

Lothal, in my home state Gujarat, was among the world’s oldest ports. Even today there are remains of a dock. No wonder Gujaratis are enterprising and travel widely even today! The Indian Ocean has shaped much of India’s history. It now holds the key to our future. The ocean carries 90% of India’s trade and our energy sources. It is also the life line of global commerce. The Indian Ocean connects regions of diverse cultures and different levels of peace and prosperity. It also now bears ships of major powers.Both raise concerns of stability and contest.

To the East, the Malacca Strait and South China Sea connect India to the Pacific and to most of our major partners – ASEAN, Japan, Republic of Korea, China and the Americas.Our trade in the region is growing rapidly. And, a significant part of our overseas investments flow in this direction. ASEAN alone accounts for over 20%.

Our interests in the region are vast, and our engagement is deep. In the Indian Ocean region, our relationships are becoming stronger. We are also helping build economic capabilities and improve maritime security for our friends and partners.We promote collective security through forums like Indian Ocean Naval Symposium.

We are advancing a comprehensive agenda of regional co-operation through Indian Ocean Rim Association. And, we also work with partners beyond the Indian Ocean Region to ensure that the global transit routes remain peaceful and free for all.

Three years ago, in Mauritius, I described our vision in one word – Sagar, which means ocean in Hindi. And, Sagar stands for Security and Growth for All in the Region and, that is the creed we follow to our East now even more vigorously through our Act East Policy by seeking to join India, especially her East and North-East, with our land and maritime partners to the east.

South-east Asia is our neighbour by land and sea.With each Southeast Asian country, we have growing political, economic and defence ties. With ASEAN, from dialogue partners, we have become strategic partners over the course of 25 years. We pursue our relations through annual summits and 30 dialogue mechanisms. But even more through a shared vision for the region, and the comfort and familiarity of our old links.

We are active participants in ASEAN-led institutions like East Asia Summit, A.D.M.M. Plus and A.R.F. We are part of BIMSTEC and Mekong-Ganga Economic Corridor – a bridge between South and Southeast Asia.

Our ties with Japan – from economic to strategic – have been completely transformed. It is a partnership of great substance and purpose that is a corner-stone of India’s Act East Policy. There is a strong momentum in our cooperation with Republic of Korea. And, there is a fresh energy in our partnerships with Australia, as also New Zealand.

With several of our partners, we meet in formats of three or more.More than three years ago, I landed at dawn in Fiji to start a successful new phase of engagement with Pacific Island Nations. The meetings of the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation, or FIPIC, have bridged the distance of geography through shared interests and action.

Beyond East and Southeast Asia, our partnerships are strong and growing.It is a measure of our strategic autonomy that India’s Strategic Partnership, with Russia, has matured to be special and privileged.

Ten days ago in an informal summit at Sochi, President Putin and I shared our views on the need for a strong multi-polar world order for dealing with the challenges of our times. At the same time, India’s global strategic partnership with the United States has overcome the hesitations of history and continues to deepen across the extraordinary breadth of our relationship.It has assumed new significance in the changing world. And, an important pillar of this partnership is our shared vision of an open, stable, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific Region. No other relationship of India has as many layers as our relations with China. We are the world’s two most populous countries and among the fastest growing major economies. Our cooperation is expanding. Trade is growing. And, we have displayed maturity and wisdom in managing issues and ensuring a peaceful border.

In April, a two-day informal Summit with President Xi helped us cement our understanding that strong and stable relations between our two nations are an important factor for global peace and progress. I firmly believe that, Asia and the world will have a better future when India and China work together in trust and confidence, sensitive to each other’s interests.

India has a growing partnership with Africa, propelled through mechanisms such as India-Africa Forum Summits. At its core are cooperation based on Africa’s requirements, and a history of warmth and mutual respect.

Friends,

Coming back to our region, India’s growing engagement is accompanied by deeper economic and defence cooperation. We have more trade agreements in this part of the world than in any other. We have Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements with Singapore, Japan and South Korea.

We have Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN and Thailand. And, we are now actively participating in concluding the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. I have just paid my first visit to Indonesia, India’s neighbour 90 nautical miles close, and not 90 nautical miles apart.

My friend President Widodo and I upgraded India-Indonesia relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Among other shared interests, we have a common vision for maritime cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. On way from Indonesia, I stopped over briefly in Malaysia to meet one of ASEAN’s most senior leaders, Prime Minister Mahathir.

Friends,

India Armed Forces, especially our Navy, are building partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region for peace and security, as well as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. They train, exercise and conduct goodwill missions across the region. For example, with Singapore, we have the longest un-interrupted naval exercise, which is in its twenty fifth year now.

We will start a new tri-lateral exercise with Singapore soon and we hope to extend it to other ASEAN countries. We work with partners like Vietnam to build mutual capabilities. India conducts Malabar Exercise with the United States and Japan. A number of regional partners join in India’s Exercise Milan in the Indian Ocean, and participate in RIMPAC in the Pacific.

We are active in the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia – in this very city. Distinguished members of the audience, Back home, our principal mission is transforming India to a New India by 2022, when Independent India will be 75 years young.

We will sustain growth of 7.5 to 8% per year. As our economy grows, our global and regional integration will increase. A nation of over 800 million youth knows that their future will be secured not just by the scale of India’s economy, but also by the depth of global engagement. More than any where else, our ties will deepen and our presence will grow in the region. But, the future we seek to build needs a stable bedrock of peace. And, this is far from certain.

There are shifts in global power, change in the character of global economy and daily disruption in technology. The foundations of the global order appear shaken. And, the future looks less certain. For all our progress, we live on the edge of uncertainty, of unsettled questions and unresolved disputes; contests and claims; and clashing visions and competing models.

We see growing mutual insecurity and rising military expenditure; internal dislocations turning into external tensions; and new fault lines in trade and competition in the global commons. Above all, we see assertion of power over re-course to international norms. In the midst of all this, there are challenges that touch us all, including the un-ending threat of terrorism and extremism. This is a world of inter-dependent fortunes and failures. And, no nation can shape and secure it on its own.

It is a world that summons us to rise above divisions and competition to work together. Is that possible ?

Yes. It is possible. I see ASEAN as an example and inspiration. ASEAN represents the greatest level of diversity of culture, religion, language, governance and prosperity of any grouping in the world.

It was born when Southeast Asia was a frontline of global competition, a theatre of a brutal war and a region of uncertain nations. Yet, today, ASEAN has united ten countries behind a common purpose. ASEAN unity is essential for a stable future for this region.

And, each of us must support it, not weaken it. I have attended four East Asia Summits. I am convinced that ASEAN can integrate the broader region. In many ways, ASEAN is already leading the process. In doing so, it has laid the foundation of the Indo-Pacific Region. The East Asia Summit and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership – two important initiatives of ASEAN – embrace this geography.

Friends,

The Indo-Pacific is a natural region. It is also home to a vast array of global opportunities and challenges. I am increasingly convinced with each passing day that the destinies of those of us who live in the region are linked. Today, we are being called to rise above divisions and competition to work together.

The ten countries of South East Asia connect the two great oceans in both the geographical and civilizational sense. Inclusiveness, openness and ASEAN centrality and unity, therefore, lie at the heart of the new Indo-Pacific. India does not see the Indo-Pacific Region as a strategy or as a club of limited members.

Nor as a grouping that seeks to dominate. And by no means do we consider it as directed against any country. A geographical definition, as such, cannot be. India’s vision for the Indo-Pacific Region is, therefore, a positive one. And, it has many elements.

One,

It stands for a free, open, inclusive region, which embraces us all in a common pursuit of progress and prosperity. It includes all nations in this geography as also others beyond who have a stake in it.

Two,

Southeast Asia is at its centre. And, ASEAN has been and will be central to its future. That is the vision that will always guide India, as we seek to cooperate for an architecture for peace and security in this region.

Three,

We believe that our common prosperity and security require us to evolve, through dialogue, a common rules-based order for the region. And, it must equally apply to all individually as well as to the global commons. Such an order must believe in sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as equality of all nations, irrespective of size and strength. These rules and norms should be based on the consent of all, not on the power of the few. This must be based on faith in dialogue, and not dependence on force. It also means that when nations make international commitments, they must uphold them. This is the foundation of India’s faith in multilateralism and regionalism; and, of our principled commitment to rule of law.

Four,

We should all have equal access as a right under international law to the use of common spaces on sea and in the air that would require freedom of navigation, unimpeded commerce and peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law. When we all agree to live by that code, our sea lanes will be pathways to prosperity and corridors of peace. We will also be able to come together to prevent maritime crimes, preserve marine ecology, protect against disasters and prosper from blue economy.

Five,

This region, and all of us, have benefitted from globalisation. Indian food is among the best examples of these benefits! But, there is growing protectionism – in goods and in services. Solutions cannot be found behind walls of protection, but in embracing change. What we seek is a level playing field for all. India stands for open and stable international trade regime. We will also support rule-based, open, balanced and stable trade environment in the Indo-Pacific Region, which lifts up all nations on the tide of trade and investment. That is what we expect from Regional Comprehnsive Economic Partnership. RCEP must be comprehensive, as the name suggests, and the principles declared. It must have a balance among trade, investment and services.

Six,

Connectivity is vital. It does more than enhance trade and prosperity. It unites a region. India has been at the crossroads for centuries. We understand the benefits of connectivity. There are many connectivity initiatives in the region. If these have to succeed, we must not only build infrastructure, we must also build bridges of trust. And for that, these initiatives must be based on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, consultation, good governance, transparency, viability and sustainability. They must empower nations, not place them under impossible debt burden. They must promote trade, not strategic competition. On these principles, we are prepared to work with everyone. India is doing its part, by itself and in partnership with others like Japan – in South Asia and Southeast Asia, in the Indian Ocean, Africa, West Asia and beyond. And, we are important stake-holders in New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Finally,

All of this is possible, if we do not return to the age of great power rivalries I have said this before: Asia of rivalry will hold us all back. Asia of cooperation will shape this century. So, each nation must ask itself: Are its choices building a more united world, or forcing new divisions? It is a responsibility that both existing and rising powers have. Competition is normal. But, contests must not turn into conflict; differences must not be allowed to become disputes. Distinguished members of the audience, It is normal to have partnerships on the basis of shared values and interests. India, too, has many in the region and beyond.

We will work with them, individually or in formats of three or more, for a stable and peaceful region. But, our friendships are not alliances of containment. We choose the side of principles and values, of peace and progress, not one side of a divide or the other. Our relationships across the world speak for our position.

And, when we can work together, we will be able to meet the real challenges of our times. We will be able to protect our planet. We will be able to ensure non-proliferation We will be able to secure our people from terrorism and cyber threats.

In conclusion, let me say this again: India’s own engagement in the Indo-Pacific Region – from the shores of Africa to that of the Americas – will be inclusive. We are in-heritors of Vedanta philosophy that believes in essential oneness of all, and celebrates unity in diversity एकम सत्यम, विप्राः बहुदावदंति (Truth is one, the learned speak of it in many ways). That is the foundation of our civilizational ethos – of pluralism, co-existence, open-ness and dialogue. The ideals of democracy that define us as a nation also shape the way we engage the world.

So, it translates into five S in Hindi: सम्मान (respect); सम्वाद (dialogue); सह्योग (cooperation), शांति (peace), and समृद्धि (prosperity). It’s easy to learn these words! So, we will engage with the world in peace, with respect, through dialogue and absolute commitment to international law.

We will promote a democratic and rules-based international order, in which all nations, small and large, thrive as equal and sovereign We will work with others to keep our seas, space and airways free and open; our nations secure from terrorism; and our cyber space free from disruption and conflict. We will keep our economy open and our engagement transparent. We will share our resources, markets and prosperity with our friends and partners. We will seek a sustainable future for our planet, as through the new International Solar Alliance together with France and other partners.

This is how we wish ourselves and our partners to proceed in this vast region and beyond. The ancient wisdom of the region is our common heritage. Lord Buddha’s message of peace and compassion has connected us all. Together, we have contributed much to human civilisation. And, we have been through the devastation of war and the hope of peace. We have seen the limits of power. And, we have seen the fruits of cooperation.

This world is at a crossroad There are temptations of the worst lessons of history. But, there is also a path of wisdom. It summons us to a higher purpose: to rise above a narrow view of our interests and recognise that each of us can serve our interests better when we work together as equals in the larger good of all nations. I am here to urge all to take that path.

Thank you.
Thank you very much.

*****

Photo and text: Narendra Modi.in

Looking for a Job? How about POTUS in 2020?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Looking for a job? How about President of the United States (POTUS)? Well, OK, you have to be native born, but if you can get past that hurdle, well…why not? In the past candidates had to do boring things like be a senator or congressperson. Governor of a US state would also be a good bet. It never hurt to have a law degree as well. A knowledge of history, government, economics and the rudiments of diplomacy were also pretty helpful.

The election of Donald Trump in 2016 seems to have been a game changer in terms of job qualifications like the above for America’s highest office. However, the outsider as politician is not without precedent; in the 1980s former movie and TV star, Ronald Reagan became president for 8 years, and in California, bodybuilder and movie actor Arnold Schwarzenegger became governor. At that time their elections were anomalies and not business as usual.

Now it seems that the outsider with no political experience, or even party affiliation can be considered for the nation’s highest offices including president.

Recently the news has focused on three individuals who seem to be viable candidates for president in the minds of many in the US. They are Howard Schultz, Oprah Winfrey, and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson.

Howard Schultz: 64

Net Worth: $USD 2.8 billion

Work Experience: Retired CEO and Executive Chair of Starbucks Coffee

Background:Mr. Schultz generally promoted a liberal agenda while at Starbucks. He is against gun violence, supports gay marriage, and concerned about race relations.

In a recent interview Mr. Schultz criticized the Democratic Party for going too far to the left. He was critical of many of the Democratic party’s ideas on healthcare and education. His criticism may have dampened his chances of a romance with the Democrats so he may have to run as an independent.

Oprah Winfrey: 63

Net Worth: $USD 2.9 billion

Work Experience: TV host, media executive

Background: Oprah Winfrey is seen as one of the most admired women in the US. Her programs are watched by millions. In January 2018 she made a rousing speech at the Golden Globes award show. Many people considered this “presidential.”Ms. Winfrey generally supports liberal causes and would surely run as an independent or Democrat.

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson: 45

Net Worth: $USD 190 million

Work Experience: College football player, pro wrestler, movie actor

Background: There has been much speculation about Mr. Johnson’s intentions since a 2017 interview where he said he was considering a run for president. Recently, he seems to be adopting a long-term approach and not focusing on 2020 because he says he has a lot to learn about the job.

Even considering that there is a 24-hour news cycle, and that broadcasters have many hours to fill with “content,” it is still hard to believe that the majority of Americans support such outsider candidates. A cynic might quote the great showman, P.T. Barnum who said: “Nobody ever lost a dollar by underestimating the taste of the American public.” And now that same cynic might add: or their intelligence.

It is one thing to be amused by a buffoon like Italian politician Silvio Berlusconi from afar but to have one elected as president of one’s own country, and have many people considering other under-qualified replacements, is deeply disturbing. Please log in and let us know what you think.

Photos of people all via Wikipedia

Photo: Pete Souza, The Obama White House via flickr

Trump Nominates Admiral Harry Harris as Ambassador to Seoul

by David Parmer / Tokyo

On May 18 Admiral Harry B. Harris was nominated to be US ambassador to the Republic of Korea. Harris was slated to become US ambassador to Australia, but Korea apparently took precedence in the mind of the Trump administration and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Admiral Harris, a 1978 graduate of the US Naval Academy, has had a long and distinguished career as both a sailor and an aviator. His last command was head of the Pacific Command, a job that he turned over to Admiral Phil Davidson. Harris was said to be a hawk on China, and his successor, Davidson, is thought to be the same.

The post of ambassador to Korea has been vacant since 2017, as have many diplomatic jobs. Whether this is a strategy of the Trump administration or simply their inability to get qualified people to fill important jobs is unclear. It has been reported that Republican senator Bob Corker turned down the Australia job citing work still to be done in the senate. Corker is slated to retire in the near future, and perhaps he does not want to sully his reputation by working for the present administration.

It is unlikely that any “smoking gun” will be found in Harris’ background by congress, and it is likely that he will be confirmed as ambassador. Once again, the undisciplined Donald Trump has nominated a disciplined military man to an important post. Admiral Harris will bring intelligence, experience, and leadership to the job. Let’s hope that Admiral Harris can serve out his term as ambassador in one of the world’s hottest hot spots without suffering damage to his sterling reputation.

Photo: US Pacific Fleet via flickr

Europeans Work To Save JCPOA Iran Deal

By David Parmer / Tokyo

Since the US announced its decision to withdraw from the JCPOA on May 8, 2018, the European Union and the European countries who signed the agreement (France, Great Britain, Germany) have been working together with Iran in an effort to save it.

While the Europeans may take exception to Iran’s actions in its region, they do not seek to link these issues to the JCPOA as does the US.

The sticking point seems to be that Europe must honor US sanctions or face problems with its US ally. The question then is can they walk this line? Can the Europeans and Iran keep the deal alive despite the promise of crushing US sanctions? Please let us know your thoughts on this most important question.

Below are the remarks by HR/VP Frederica Mogherini after an EU/E3 and Iran meeting on May 15, 2018.

Remarks by High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini at the press conference following ministerial meetings of the EU/E3 and EU/E3 and Iran

I just met with the Foreign Ministers of France (Jean-Yves Le Drian), Germany (Heiko Maas), the United Kingdom (Boris Johnson) and of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Mohammad Javad Zarif) this afternoon and this evening, in two separate meetings, to discuss our common lines and the work ahead of us, following the announcement made by the United States of its withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear deal.

We recalled our commitment to the continued, full and effective implementation of the Iran nuclear deal that was unanimously endorsed by the UN Security Council Resolution 2231, as a key element of the global nuclear non-proliferation architecture and a significant diplomatic achievement.

We, together, regretted the withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear deal and we recognised that the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions and the normalisation of trade and economic relations with Iran constitute essential parts of the agreement.

We stressed the commitment we all share to ensure that this will continue to be delivered and we agreed to this end to deepen our dialogue at all levels.

By the way, our experts were working together already today for many hours.

We undertook, in particular, to launch intensive expert discussions – that, as I said, have already started today – with Iran, addressing the following issues with a view to arriving at practical solutions in the next few weeks:

Maintaining and deepening economic relations with Iran;

The continued sale of Iran’s oil and gas condensate petroleum products and petrochemicals and related transfers;

Effective banking transactions with Iran;

Continued sea, land, air and rail transportation relations with Iran;

The further provision of export credit and development of special purpose vehicles in financial banking, insurance and trade areas, with the aim of facilitating economic and financial cooperation, including by offering practical support for trade and investment;

The further development and implementation of Memoranda of Understanding and contracts between European companies and Iranian counterparts;

Further investments in Iran;

The protection of European Union economic operators and ensuring legal certainty:

And last but not least, the further development of a transparent, rules-based business environment in Iran.

We reaffirmed together our resolve to continue to implement the nuclear deal in all its parts, in good faith, and in a constructive atmosphere, and we agreed to continue to consult intensively at all levels and also with other remaining participants of the Joint Commission to the JCPOA.

We will also hold a Joint Commission meeting in Vienna next week at the level of Deputy Foreign Ministers or Political Directors – which is the usual level at which the Joint Commission meets – and obviously in the coming days we will continue to work along these lines following the good exchanges we had today, during the day and during the evening.

All in all it was a positive meeting. It allowed us to agree on a common set of lines of action and measures to put in place on which we will, as I said, start working as of tomorrow – some of the work has already started.

I will brief the [weekly meeting of the] College of the [European] Commission tomorrow morning on this. In particular, we will discuss some of the aspects of these measures that refer to work done at the level of the European Commission.

We also decided that EU Member States – starting with the E3 but also other Member States – will work on complementary mechanisms and measures, not only so as to go at the European Union level but also at national level to, in particular, protect the economic operators of the EU Member States. And I will have the opportunity to also brief the Heads of State or Government of the 28 EU Member States tomorrow evening at the leaders’ dinner that we will have in Sofia. The E3 leaders will also be present and we will have, I believe, at that moment a first exchange also with the other 25 Member States.

Let me stress that the implementation of the JCPOA is also on the agenda of our next Foreign Affairs Council in some 10 days from now [on 28 May 2018]. So the Foreign Ministers of all the 28 Member States will have – at the latest at that stage – the possibility of working together on common work along these and similar lines.

Link to the opening remarks

Q: You listed a number of measures. What are they? Are they promises? Pledges? Things that we will do or things that both sides are aspiring or have set as objectives to do? And is there any guarantee that you can offer that you can even maintain the same level of trade as Europe currently has with Iran in the coming months and years?

That is the aim we have. The list of issues I have mentioned are the issues we have decided to address with the aim at arriving at practical solutions. So this is not a set of measures, this is a quite wide and broad set of issues that we see a need to address and on which we have decided to start working – actually the work has started today already – working together in a closely coordinated manner, including, I want to stress, with other Member States, to arrive at practical solutions within the next few weeks. So it is issues that we see the need to address and on which we will work together to find practical solutions in a short amount time.

The practical solutions we would be working on – and we are working on – are obviously of a different nature depending on the different issues we are talking about. I am sure that as the days go by you [press and media] will have technical debriefs on the substance of the different strands of work. But again, already now we have a quite clear list of issues to address.

The issue of what we can ensure or guarantee is something I want to address very clearly. We are operating in a very difficult context and this is something the European people know, the Iranian people know, the leaderships know. It is a difficult environment after exactly this time last week we heard President [of the United States, Donald] Trump’s announcement.

Having said that, we are determined to ensure that the JCPOA stays in place. We know it is a difficult task, but we are determined to do that and we have started to work to put in place measures that help to ensure that this happens. This is true on the European side and we have seen the same willingness and determination on the Iranian side.

So I probably cannot talk about legal or economic guarantees, but I can talk about serious, determined, and committed work from the European side – also from the Iranian side – to keep our commitments. And normally when we work together – committed, determined, with good faith and good will, even in difficult circumstances – we get to some achievements.

Q: Do you think that you will be able to reach a conclusion within the remaining time? Do you think that it is possible to have an extension of this time? What will be the outcome of these negotiations – will it be a statement or a written text? Will there be provisions added as an attachment to the deal?

We are we working on finding practical solutions. The agreement is complex enough, long enough, detailed enough. It does not need to be changed, modified or have any addition. Everything is already written there.

We simply committed to fully comply with all the commitments taken there, which means for the Iranian side the nuclear-related commitments, and from our side and from the side of the rest of the international community, in particular the commitments related to the economic benefits the Iranian people need to see as an outcome of their own implementation of the Iran deal.

So, we are not talking about annexes or modifications of the agreement at all; we are talking about setting up concrete measures, concrete practical solutions to address these issues, which could take different forms depending on the different issues covered – but something very concrete, very practical and hopefully very operational and very quickly.

About the timing, as I said, we have already started the work, actually even before today. Today the experts exchanged for many hours in a very productive manner and we will continue this work both at the Commission level with the Member States, starting tomorrow evening to share the state of play with all the 28 Member States’ Heads of State or Government. Capitals in the European Union will obviously look at how to complement European mechanisms or solutions we could find. The speed of the process is and has to be fast. I cannot tell you two days, two weeks or more, but we talked about the need to do this exercise in the next few weeks.

Q. Did the Iranian side give you a timeframe that it considers to be a minimum to find solutions and did it indicate what would happen if the solutions you talked about are not found in time? Is the blocking statute on the agenda from the EU’s perspective?

On the blocking statute, I would expect to discuss this already tomorrow in the [weekly meeting of the] College [of the European Commission].

On the issue of the timing, there was no unpleasant negotiating style exercise among us. We all share the same objective related to the full implementation of the JCPOA.

We have many other disagreements on many other fields, but tonight the focus was on the JCPOA implementation. So, in this respect, it was a very constructive, positive meeting, indicating on all sides the awareness of the urgency of finding solutions, not for the sake of a calendar, but because if we want to save this deal – which is not an easy exercise – we know that the sooner we manage to do it, the better and the easier it will be.

Again, it will not be easy, but if I can use the metaphor that some raised around the table, we all have a relative in intensive care and we all want to get him or her out of intensive care as soon as possible.

Q. In case these steps that you’ve discussed are successful, would you imagine that this will open further negotiations with Iran on the conflict issues like ballistic missiles, the future of the nuclear deal and Iran’s intervention in Middle East conflicts.

One thing that is very clear to all of us Europeans is that with the nuclear deal in place we have a better chance to address any other issue we have to address with Iran, be it missiles, be it regional issues.

We are very clear on the fact that there is no connection between the two; the nuclear deal was reached and is working exactly because it is nuclear-related – that was a decision taken fifteen or sixteen years ago, and we stay true to our commitments that are in this context, nuclear-related.

Obviously, this doesn’t exclude all the other issues we discussed with Iran and that we need to address with Iran in a separate manner. We have always been clear on this: that there are more chances, more possibilities to open avenues for discussions with Iran on other issues, if the Iran nuclear deal stays in place rather than not.

We will see what will happen in the future. You know that for us Europeans it is very important to address also other issues. Tonight, the main goal is to save the Iran deal and to preserve all its provisions.
We believe that without that in place, it would be very difficult to have any basis for talking or negotiating anything else. On the contrary, that could be a good basis for the future, but the future is the future.

Photo: Frederica Mogherini, FACEBOOK

European External Action Service

Speaking Truth To Power – “A Higher Loyalty” by James Comey

by David Parmer / Tokyo

For the last year and a half the world has seen America at its worst in the person of Donald Trump and his administration of “B-Team” yes-men and yes-women. It is important for the world to understand that the United States has men and women of intelligence, sophistication, wit, competence and integrity who are again ready to step forward once Donald Trump is soundly defeated in an election, or is impeached. Former FBI Director James Comey is such a man.

In his recently published memoir, A Higher Loyalty–Truth Lies and Leadership, Director Comey lays out a timeline of the events that made him the man his is. Starting at a childhood incident where he and his brother were held at gunpoint by an intruder, he takes us through his early life of being bullied and bullying. He outlines his career working for the US government at the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York where he prosecuted Mafia bosses.

From 1996-2001 he worked as Managing Assistant US Attorney at the US Attorney’s office for the Eastern District of Virginia. He then went on to be involved in investigationg the Whitewater scandal involving then President Bill Clinton. Comey rose steadily in the US government, and moved up to be United States Attorney for The Southern District of New York where he prosecuted TV personality Martha Stewart for securities fraud and lying to the FBI. During the second Bush administration, Comey became active in opposing domestic surveillance by the National Security Agency, and was also opposed to “enhanced interrogation” which is basically torture by another name. Comey left government service from 2005 to 2013 and worked in the private sector.

In 2013 James Comey was appointed as the 7th Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation by President Barack Obama and continued to serve in that job until he was fired without warning or ceremony by Donald Trump on May 9, 2017 on manufactured and baseless allegations of poor performance.

During the 4 years that he was FBI director, Comey not only handled high-profile cases such as the Hillary Clinton e-mail debacle, and the probe in Russia’s meddling in the 2016 US election.

Shortly after Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2017, Trump tried to court Comey and, in private meetings, tried to intimidate him and force him to get on the same page with the Trump administration’s policies. Comey refused to pledge loyalty to Trump. Once he told Trump that he was wrong about his saying that America was as murderous as Russia, Comey ceased to exist as a possible ally for Trump.

Throughout his career, James Comey chose to support the law and speak the truth as he saw it. When he was made FBI director, Comey decided that the thing he wanted was ethical leaders in the Bureau. Specifically:

“I told the organization that I had an ambitious goal: the FBI would one day be the government’s premier leadership factory…”The FBI would supply America’s corporate leaders in the future, and

“We would teach that great leaders are

(1) people of integrity and decency;

(2) confident enough to be humble;

(3) both kind and tough;

(4) transparent; and

(5) aware that we all seek meaning in work.

We would also teach them (6) that what they say is important, but what they do is far more important, because their people are always watching them. In short, we would demand and develop ethical leaders.” (Pg. 130, A Higher Loyalty, Kindle edition) [Emphasis added].

Finally, the Epilogue to his book, Director Comey makes the following damming indictment of Donald Trump:

“Donald’ Trump’s presidency threatens much of what is good in this nation. We all bear responsibility for the deeply flawed choices put before voters during the 2016 election, and our country is paying a high price: this president is unethical and untethered to truth and institutional values.His leadership is transactional, ego driven and about personal loyalty...” (Pg. 275, A Higher Loyalty, Kindle edition) [Emphasis added].

To get a real insight into the policy and the tone of the Trump administration, and to get a sense of what integrity and ethical leadership is, James Comey’s book is a “must read.”

Ma, Ma, Ma, Ma – Taiwan’s Game Changer?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Look who’s back. Or so it seems. On May 6, 2018 the South China Morning Post reported that former Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou was making something of a comeback. The SCMP noted Ma’s enthusiastic welcome when visiting various areas of Taiwan with people glad to see him and shake his hand.

This is a stark contrast, as Ma’s popularity at the end of his 8-year term as president was in the low-low area, and the Kuomintang’s loss to the Democratic Progressive Party was seen as his responsibility. President Ma has been keeping a fairly low profile, but now in the middle of current President Tsai Ing-wen’s 4-year term he is be back on the radar. Ma has made 4 overseas trips since leaving the presidency, the most recent to San Francisco’s Bay Area where he visited tech companies, paid his respects to the Sun Yat-sen memorial and gave a lecture at Stanford University.

And then there is the talk that Ma might be considering another run for president in 2020. It would be a precedent-setting move, but possible. It seems the constitution does not specifically forbid it, just prohibits a third term after two consecutive terms.

One factor that might contribute to Ma’s political resurrection is Tsai’s lackluster performance in her first two years in office.

After a rousing inauguration speech filled with promise, Tsai has seemingly been sleepwalking through her first two years in office. It seems she lacks direction and is receiving poor advice from those around her. Her recent embrace of the US Taiwan Travel Act seems ill advised at best. She gets not much for her support of this Trump administration initiative, and it has just annoyed Beijing and strengthened the PRC’s resolve on the “Taiwan question.”

At the end of April 2018 in an interview Tsai said that she was willing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for “peace and stability.” Really? President Tsai has no real bargaining chips that would be worthwhile to Mr. Xi, or that would encourage him to sit down at the table with Tsai. What could she offer him? Better cross-strait relations? From Mr. Xi’s point of view she and the DPP’s position on the 1992 Consensus are the problem.

Tsai seems to have painted herself into a corner and, just in time, Ma Ying-jeou shows up again. Unlike Tsai, ex-President Ma has a lot to offer Beijing. During his term of office relations were warm, commerce was booming and mainland tourists flocked to Taiwan. During Ma’s presidency there were Taiwan companies and mainland companies in Taiwan to the extent that there was a blending of economies.

From Beijing’s point of view the metamorphosis of the economy could be seen as a gradual integration of Taiwan back into the fold. This, of course, was not acceptable to Taiwan nationalists like the DPP. The gradual melding of the economies over the years and an eventual return of Taiwan to the PRC without war would be something that the PRC would greatly favor.

A peaceful solution to the Taiwan question might start with a return to power of Ma Ying-jeou, or at least the return to power of a pro-Beijing KMT in 2020. Please let us know your thoughts on this.

Photo: Ma Ying-jeou Brookings Institution via flickr

The Iran Nuclear Deal – All In Vain?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

The above photo shows then Secretary of State John Kerry addressing reporters on July 14, 2015 in Vienna and announcing that, after years of arduous negotiations, an agreement had been reached between the West and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program. This agreement officially knows as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has since become to be known as “the Iran nuclear deal.”

Certification for the JCPOA is due on May 12, 2018, and Donald Trump may decide to pull the U.S. out of the deal. Trump has been attacking the agreement since he was running for the presidency in 2015. In his typical “you wait and see” manner he has not said clearly what he will do, but all signs and hints indicate that he will not certify the agreement this time.

Trump has his allies on this including his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, National Security Advisor John Bolton and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The shared narrative is that this is a bad deal, and that it must be fixed or re-negotiated and several unrelated issues (such as Iran’s missile program and Iran’s behavior in its region and in Syria) must be added on to the agreement. One more “requirement” to a new deal would be the inspection of Iran’s military bases.

Iran’s answer to this call for re-negotiation is a firm and unequivocal “no.” In an interview with US network NPR, on April 24, 2018 Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said:

“I believe Europe has said that they are not prepared to renegotiate this agreement and I think it’s very prudent, because anybody who participated in the negotiation of this deal would tell you that opening this package would be tantamount to opening a Pandora’s box, and we’ll never be able to close it.”

The question now is whether there is any “plan B” possible or available to the parties to the agreement. The “Europeans” mean France, Germany, Great Britain, and the EU. Other parties are China, Russia, Iran, and the USA. If the US pulls out of the agreement where does that leave everyone else? There seem to be a couple possible scenarios.

1) The Europeans and Russia and China continue to move forward without the US and the JCPOA continues without the US. Pulling out of the deal would mean that the US would re-impose sanctions in order to get Iran to the table regarding its missile program and its support of its clients in Yemen and Syria. It is doubtful that Iran would be in any mood to negotiate these issues or to change its position in any way.

2) Iran could pull out of the deal completely. No compromise with the Russians, Chinese or Europeans. A unilateral (actually bi-lateral) withdrawal. And while Iran has repeatedly stated that it has no intention to build nuclear weapons, this might just push them over the edge. They might find themselves in the same mental space as the North Koreans: surrounded by enemies intent on destroying them, the only answer is to produce and maintain nuclear weapons.

In either of these two scenarios, the Trump-Israel-Saudi coalition might just decide to act preemptively by attacking Iran to effect regime change. They might start by bombing or attacking Iran’s nuclear sites to “prevent” Iran from getting a bomb to put on their missiles. This would inflame the Middle East, lead to war, and have a massive negative effect on the world economy.

Whatever happens regarding the May 12 certification will not be good. The best case scenario would be for the US to sign on again for another period, but this is not likely to happen as Trump has staked his credibility with his followers on either getting what he wants (impossible) or pulling the US out of the agreement.

A cynic might say that since Trump won’t get his war in Korea, he will have to settle for Iran. Let us hope that such is not the case.

Iran FM Zarif’s interview on NPR

Photo: U.S. Department of State via flickr

Indian PM Narendra Modi To Head To China Again

by David Parmer / Tokyo

This week India’s PM, Narendra Modi heads to China for a fourth times since 2014. On April 27-28 Mr. Modi will meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in the cities of Wuhan, Hubei Province for an “informal summit.” While improved relations with one’s neighbors is a good thing, generally speaking, expectations seem to be fairly modest for this Modi-Xi meeting.

Items on the agenda include re-opening a route to Tibet’s sacred Mt. Kalish and information sharing on hydrological data relating to the Brahmaputra and Sutlej rivers. The other stated aim of the meeting is to reduce any lingering tensions from last year’s 73-day Doklan/Donglang standoff along their border.

The real purpose for the “summit” seems to be obscure. What exactly does each side expect to gain, or what message do they want to send to the world? Maybe Mr. Xi, who seems to view things in the long term as well as the short term, sees it in China’s long-term interest to have better relations with India.

China has always been stronger in its border confrontations with India, that is obvious. On the other side of the coin, China is weak in the Indian Ocean where it has to bring its assets thousands of miles south and west to project power. So China might have the upper hand on land, but it is apparent that the sea, particularly the Indian Ocean will go to India.

For Mr. Modi, maybe going to China, dealing with a troubling situation, and perhaps getting some concessions from the Chinese, may make him look good in the eyes of Indian voters. So going to “the Chinese court” every year may just gain Mr. Modi some real benefits for his country and for his own re-election in 2019.

Please log in and give us your thoughts on this matter.

Photo: Narendra Modi 2016 flickr