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Is Donald Trump a moron?

By Bill Lee

Is Donald Trump a moron? As leaders in Asia get ready to host the US president in the coming weeks, that question deserves consideration. As has been reported, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reportedly called Trump a “moron,” officially a “fucking moron,” because he was angered that Trump had turned a speech to the Boy Scouts of America, which Tillerson was once the president of, into a political campaign speech, replete with calls to “lock her (Hillary Clinton), up.” Tillerson never actually denied using the epithet to describe Trump so we can assume the reporting is true.

Trump regularly uses the tactic of hurling charges made against him back at the parties making the charges. Accordingly, he called the executives of NBC News, which broke the story, “morons.” He of course now regularly speaks of the “fake news” put out by network and cable news companies that originally pointed out the false claims made by Trump. And now that the Mueller investigation is getting grand juries to indict Trump associates, if not Trump himself, the Donald is accusing Hillary Clinton of receiving bribes from the Russians.

Who is the big winner in all of this? Xi Jinping. As Fareed Zakaria pointed out in his latest GPS program, Xi’s rise not only in China, but in many countries around the world, is due not necessarily to the brilliance of Xi, of which there is clear evidence, but to the decline of America, embodied by its president, Donald Trump.

The answer to the question: “Is Donald Trump a moron?” Yes.

Making a Difference: ROBOTERRA’s Yao Zhang

by David Parmer / Tokyo

At 33, Yao Zhang is already making a difference in the world of education and robotics. Zhang has been nominated as one of the World Economic Forum’s Young Global Leaders and included in Robohub’s “25 women in robotics you need to know about.” She has also been acknowledged by the US Department of State which awarded her its “Best 10 Global Citizen Service Award.”

Yao Zhang is CEO and co-founder of ROBOTERRA, a Silicon Valley/ China startup that makes hardware kits and software backup for kids to learn both robotics and programming.

In 2014 Zhang and co-founder Sui Shalong, an Apple alumnus formed the company in Santa Clara, California. This was Zhang’s second successful startup, the first being Minds Abroad, a company focused on improving study abroad programs worldwide.

Zhang graduated from the Beijing Central University of Finance and Economics and then took a Ph.D. at Columbia University. She followed that with short stints at McKinsey and Co. and the Soros Foundation before starting her own ventures.

ROBOTERRA kits are designed to teach children to build and program robots. The Origin kit is priced at around US$300. Users get a modular kit and the use of Castle Rock programing software using C++. Zhang’s aim is not only to introduce users to robotics but also teach logic and give them a boost in their STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) curriculum. The kits can be found in 500 schools in 30 countries.

Website: roboterra.com

Photo: World Economic Forum via flickr

2017 Report on Russian Military Power and Objectives

by David Parmer / Tokyo

“The Russian military has built on the military doctrine, structure, and capabilities of the former Soviet Union, and although still dependent on many of the older Soviet platforms, the Russians have modernized their military strategy, doctrine, and tactics to include use of asymmetric weapons like cyber and indirect action such as was observed in Ukraine.”

The 2017 unclassified report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (Russia Military Power–Building A Military to Support Great Power Aspirations) is the current version of a report titled Soviet Military Power mandated by then Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger in 1981.

The “comeback” of a resurgent Russian military from a hollowed-out post Soviet Union military organization to its present level of robust capabilities is documented. It says Russia has created a smaller, more mobilie and more balanced mix of forces to both protect its perceived interests and to project power in its area of influence

Evidence of this can be found in Russia’s actions including:

Seizing the Crimea Peninsula
Destabilizing eastern Ukraine
Intervening in Syria
Shaping the information environment

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the US are seen as principle threats to Russian sovereignty and ambitions. Of particular interest regarding Russian activities are its numerous cyber threats to the US and the free world. A prime example of this is the Russian “Troll Army” that tries to shape the Internet environment to Russia’s favor.

Russian military capabilities are discussed from a strategic point of view, then a section is devoted to each of its assets: Army, Navy, Rocket Forces, Cyber activities, Special Forces, Intelligence and Arms Sales.

In the post-post Cold War era, a resurgent Russia can only be ignored at a nation’s peril. Please let us know your thoughts on this matter.

(The report can be found in its entirety online by following the link below. Est. reading time: 50 minutes)

Report: Russia Military Power

Photo: Pantsir S1, Dmitry Terekhov via flickr

Winter Is On Its Way To Beijing

by David Parmer / Tokyo

November 7-22 on the old solar calendar is called “lidong” in China and is considered the official beginning of winter. Beijing’s heating season starts in mid-November and runs to mid-March. However the Beijing area reported is first light snow on October 10th in its Haitou Mountain area, several weeks before the season begins.

Temperatures in November head downward from a low of 5°C to a frosty -2°C in December to an even-more-frosty -4° in January to a still-more-frosty -2°C in February before returning to a more reasonable 5°C in March at the end of the heating season.

Dry and cold months bring their own pleasures and challenges to China’s capital. Despite the relatively short days and cold nights, residents can enjoy skiing and skating and take pleasure in eating several seasonal hot dishes and visiting temple fairs.

Every year Beijing experiences compromised air quality that is the result of a number of contributing factors including motor vehicle exhaust, the burning of coal for heating and industry, and construction dust. Add to this a dry winter climate with slight precipitation and the result is air quality issues of varying degrees for the winter months.

In 2017 China’s government has taken further steps to tackle the air-quality problem. This winter (2017-18) there will be a construction halt for the building of roads and waterworks and a ban on the demolition of old housing. All but necessary construction will be halted. It remains to be seen if these measures will produce the desired improvement in air quality.

As for the Beijing winter, it seems that the choice of attitude is up to the individual resident or visitor: it can be seen as a quiet and peaceful time to draw in and recharge, or a season to be endured until the first buds of spring appear on the capitol’s barren trees and bushes.

Photo: Snowy Gate by Jack via flickr

Photo: Beijing Hot Pot, Joanne Wan via flickr

Photo: Summer Palace in Winter michel_china via flickr

Person of Interest: US Senator Cory Booker

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Is US Senator Cory Booker “the real deal?” Well, it depends who you talk to. The senator is not without his critics, but it often looks like they have to work hard to find things to criticize him for. For instance, Booker was Mayor of Newark, New Jersey from 2006-2013. In that time he did not eliminate crime (although crime rates fell during his tenure) or put an end to poverty in the city, but then he never promised to do so. Downtown development received a boost however, but school system reforms were sluggish.

In 2013 Mayor Booker ran for the US senate and was elected as Democratic junior senator from New Jersey. Senator Booker is considered a liberal, but it seems that he is more pragmatic than dogmatic, taking positions that that can be seen at times liberal, libertarian and even pro-business. So again there has been criticism from both left and right.

Cory Booker was born on April 27, 1969 to middle-class African-American parents. He played football in high school and at Stanford University where he earned a bachelor’s degree and master’s degree. He then went on to Oxford University where he took a degree in American History. Finally, he followed this up with a law degree from Yale University.

While mayor, Booker was known as a “hands on” type guy. There are several incidents on record where he took personal action to help voters, and to sort things out. He is reported to have shoveled snow for an elderly constituent, saved someone from a burning building and opened his home to New Jersey residents after hurricane Sandy.

Cory Booker was considered for vice president by the Democrats in 2016. And it is too bad that it didn’t happen. A Biden-Booker ticket might have been able to defeat Donald Trump. Now politicians and voters are looking forward to the 2020 presidential elections.

Already many names have been put forward, but, as yet, Cory Booker is not mentioned as a front-runner or even a serious contender. Perhaps the defeated Democratic Party needs to sort itself out first. Whatever happens, Senator Booker will surely be in the 2020 mix. His is a name to remember.

Photo: Cory Booker, US Senate

Asian Waters–China’s Vital West River (Xi Jiang)

China’s busy Xi River is the third of the three great rivers that flow across China from east to west. In order they are the Yellow River, Yangtze and Xi River.The Xi is formed in Wuzhou by the joining of the Gui and Xun River.The river flows eastward and empties into the Pearl River Delta, one of the most important manufacturing centers on earth, and the site of a mega-city not seen before.

The Xi river’s 2,197 km of waterway stays unfrozen year round allowing transport to go upriver as far as Wuzhou where small river boats can take cargo further inland. At its eastern end, the Xi River supplies water to Guangxi, Guangdong and Macau. Waterways and rivers like the Xi have long been the mainstay of Chinese life and commerce and will surely do so for a long, long time to come.

Photo: Wikimedia commons

Map:lahistoriconmpas

Finland and Sweden to Join NATO – Yes? No? Maybe?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

In 2017 media interest has been constantly shifting, from the South China Sea to the Korean Peninsula, to the Middle East to the India-China border and seemingly back again in an endless loop. One vital area of global interest, the Nordic region has received little attention, perhaps because of a lack of “incidents” during the year.

But the stakes at the top of the world are real to the countries themselves, to Europe, to NATO and to Russia.

Russian actions in Ukraine and Crimea have re-energized debate in both Sweden and Finland concerning possible NATO membership. These two countries have done an intricate dance, being both non-members of NATO but cozying up to the organization. Since the 1990s Finland and Sweden have participated in the NATO Partnership for Peace, but have stayed away from applying for full membership.

Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has issued a blunt warning to Sweden that NATO membership for Sweden would be seen in a very negative light and as a threat to Russian security. It seems that Russia draws the line with Sweden and Finland although Norway, Iceland and Denmark are full NATO members.

Over the years both countries, Sweden and Finland, have walked a thin line, attending to their own national interests yet not wanting to antagonize their powerful neighbor to the east. The topic of NATO membership is likely to emerge as a key element in the 2018-19 presidential and parliamentary elections in Finland.

Polls suggest that 50% of Swedes are now against NATO membership and 55% of Finns also oppose membership.

Finally, how does the situation look from the Russian perspective? Surely viewing NATO maneuvers and cooperation with her close neighbors, and the presence of US troops almost everywhere in the region (limited in numbers though they may be) must make Russia more than a bit uneasy.

How will this situation play out in the near and mid term? Will some “incident” occur in the near future to put the Nordic region on the world’s TV screens? Please give us your thoughts on NATO and on this matter.

Photo: Finnish Soldier in Latvia, by US Army Europe via flickr

Person of Interest: UK Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn

by David Parmer / Tokyo

For 32 years Jeremy Corbyn, Labour M.P., has represented the people of his constituency, Islington North in the Parliament of the United Kingdom. And now, the day may not be far off when Mr. Corbyn will represent the whole country and the Commonwealth as its Prime Minister.

Mr. Corbyn has been head of the Labour Party since his victory in 2015, but it was Labour’s win in the June 2017 election that has brought him to center stage. The press now talks of his “rock star” quality, especially in relation to the fading Theresa May, current Prime Minister. It is said that the Tories underestimated Mr. Corbyn and his organization in the last election, a mistake that they will probably not make in the next one. But perhaps there has been a shift in British politics and now it is time for Labour, with Mr. Corbyn at its helm, to have a go at the problems, challenges and opportunities that the UK is faced with.

Mr. Corbyn’s heart is with the left, and it has been there consistently.He is no flip-flopper when it comes to issues from Cuba to Syria to the economy. He says he is not a Marxist, but a Socialist, and on a number of issues he favors:

Public ownership of certain utilities and certain means of transport
Tax relief for the middle class
A united Ireland
Non-intervention militarily in the Middle East
A revised policy towards Saudi Arabia
A negotiated settled between Madrid and Catalonia
An equitable solution to the Palestinian question
Republicanism, but not abolishing the Royal Family
A revised Cuba policy
No British military response to North Korea

The question is will the Conservative Party continue to be seen as lackluster come the next election, and will Labour’s star, and indeed Mr. Corbyn’s star continue to rise. Will there be a shift to the Left in Europe, and will the UK get to experience Socialism with British Characteristics? Please log in and let us know what you think.

Photo:Chatham House via flickr

Perils of Probability

Bill Lee

Probability rules our lives; we act according to the odds of a successful outcome. But predicting probability depends on the information we have. In March this year, scientists appointed by the Japanese government warned of a massive earthquake in the Nankai Trough (“nankai mo”), and Kyoto University Professor Haruo Hayashi claimed there is a 60-70% probability of a magnitude 8-9 earthquake hitting the Nankai Trough within the next three decades. Magnitude 9 is huge, so since I have a house in the area, the prediction is worrisome.

However, Robert Geller, professor of geophysics at the University of Tokyo, finds the basis for the prediction faulty. The data, he notes, that the researchers base their predictions on focus on only the past few centuries — much too short a time span since the Earth is around 4.6 billion years old. In other words, making predictions based on such limited information is impossible. And expensive, since earthquake insurance premiums will go up, fueled by such official government claims.

Since I am on the subject of probability, Monty Hall, the legendary host of the game show Let’s Make a Deal passed away recently. Monty is probably best known for the probability problem that bears his name — the Monty Hall Problem. At the end of a show, the winners up to then would be given a chance for a really big prize, often a car. The contestant would be confronted with three doors. Behind two of them were goats, for example, and behind the third door was a brand-new luxury car. Needless to say, the contestant wanted the car. Of course the contestants could not see behind the doors but Monty could, so he had all the information. Monty would tell the contestant to pick a door. Suppose the contestant picked Door A. Monty, knowing behind which doors the goats and car were, would open Door B, behind which would be a goat. So we are only certain a goat is behind Door B. Monty would then ask the contestant the final question: Do you want to switch your answer to Door C or keep Door A? According to the probabilities involved, what should she do, stay with Door A or pick Door C?

Columnist Marilyn vos Santos, who reportedly had an IQ of 228, the highest ever recorded, wrote in her Parade Magazine column that the contestant should switch doors. She was immediately greeted by scorn and criticism from numerous mathematicians and statisticians for giving the wrong answer. Was she wrong? Try to figure out the answer and check this site for a good answer. https://gizmodo.com/heres-the-best-explanation-of-the-monty-hall-yet-1580031464

Sea Change or More of the Same?

By Bill Lee

The Japanese political landscape was rocked by two recent “bombshell” announcements. Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike announced that she was forming a new national party, Kibo no To (Party of Hope), to challenge the Liberal Democratic Party and “reset” Japan. The other shocker was Democratic Party President Seiji Maehara’s announcement that DP candidates in the upcoming Lower House election could run under the Party of Hope flag, thus effectively dissolving the party.

Very media savvy as a result of her TV announcer days, Koike has parlayed her charismatic personality with her willingness to challenge traditional power structures like the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly and attack the Tokyo Olympic cost overruns and slipshod transfer of the Tsukiji fish market to a new location into a dominant position in the Japanese political world. She has been more successful than other female hopefuls like Makiko Tanaka, who irritated bureaucrats and other politicians with her bluntness, Yuko Obuchi, who resigned from the Abe Cabinet over a political funding scandal, and Tomomi Inada, who appeared incompetent and was caught lying in a Defense Ministry cover-up. Renho, the former leader of the DP who made her name as a “waste-buster,” never caught the public’s imagination, perhaps because of her partly non-Japanese origin. But Koike has been in the public eye for some time, and gained voters’ trust with her so far mistake-free stewardship of Japanese government ministries and now the Tokyo metropolitan government.

Allowing DP lawmakers to defect to Koike’s party has effectively finished the DP, with Maehara himself saying that he wanted to merge the DP with the Party of Hope to form a major opposition party and give Japan a two-party political system. The DP’s poll ratings have been dismal, and its prospects in the next Upper House election are embarrassingly bad. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga was probably right in blasting the moves by Maehara and Koike as just political maneuvering without any basis in policy judgments. The LDP of course has a lot of policies, but the problem is that none of them work.

The DP-Party of Hope candidates could take 30 percent or so of the seats in the upcoming election, but would they really constitute an opposition force? A supporter of the contentious security laws, Koike is basically a conservative politician, as are most of the DP lawmakers like former DP deputy president Goshi Hosono who are defecting to her party. Thus what is likely to emerge after the election is one very large conservative bloc comprising the LDP and the Party of Hope and a very splintered real opposition, basically anchored by the Japanese Communist Party and some liberal DP members.