Putin & Russia – What a Difference a Year Makes

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 Putin’s 2014 News Conference (Photo: Kermlin.ru)

Just about a year ago, on 21 Dec. 2013, we posted an article describing Vladimir Putin’s banner year. Things were going right for the president of Russia. Russia had been instrumental in brokering a Syrian peace deal, an energy agreement with Ukraine went in Russia’s favor, and the Sochi Olympic games were just down the road. A smiling Putin faced the world. But events have a way of making even the rosiest dream into a nightmare. In December 2014 a defiant Putin faced the world at his annual news conference. He promised that the economy would turn around within two years. And the while the economy wasn’t his only problem, it was certainly his main. Russia’s ruble had plunged in value by December 2014, and western sanctions imposed because of Russia’s support of Ukrainian separatists and Russia’s annexation of Crimea were taking their toll.

Added to that was the downing of a Malaysian airliner in July killing 283 passengers and 15 crew. Ukrainian fighters, using Russian equipment, are thought to be to blame. Russian oil exports plummeted as the global price of crude continued to slide at year end. Putin himself remains firm in his beliefs, and his popularity ratings would be the envy of any elected president in the world. Russia and China might again become new best friends, particularly with the progress being made on a new Silk Road. But Vladimir Putin has a tough road ahead in 2015. Hard economic times, sanctions and international isolation look  like they are what is on the cards for the coming year. But let us remember that Putin and the Russians are hardy survivors, and hard times don’t necessarily last forever. Maybe next December will tell a different story. Certainly the Russian president hopes so.

Tokyo 2020 Olympic Stadium Draws Fire

dezeen_Japan-National-Stadium-Zaha-Hadid-Tokyo-2020_1_784.jpg                                                        New Olympic Statium (http://www.dezeen.com)

Zaha Hadid’s design for the 2020 Olympic came under fire from Japanese architects this year resulting in changes in the original design. A group of Japanese architects led by award winning Fumiko Maki attacked Hadid’s proposed building as being too big, too expensive and poorly designed. The architects led by Maki included Toyo Ito, Kengo Kuma and Sou Fujimoto.

On 8 July 2014 dezeen magazine reported that the Japan Sports Council had reduced the budget for the stadium from 300 billion Yen to 189 billion Yen. Zaha Hadid Architects responded by adapting the design to make materials more cost efficient.

The national stadium is not the only venue that is being re-thought. The construction of 10 other venues are now being reviewed due to rising labor and construction costs. The use of existing facilities is being proposed as a cost-cutting alternative. On 19 November 2014  Reuters reported that, IOC Vice President John Coates urged Japan to move events outside the city to cut spending. Such moves would go against Japan’s Olympic bid proposal calling for no venue to be more than 8km from the Olympic Village.

It is likely that some solutions will be arrived at in meetings to be held in Japan in early 2015. Whatever the outcome, it is clear that is back to the drawing board for the 2020 Olympics.

 

Asian Waters— China’s Busy Bohai Sea Region

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                       China’s Bohai Sea Region (NASA)

                          by David Parmer

Viewed from space, the Bohai Sea region could be seen as an emerald dragon penetrating the Asian landmass. And that impression of power and energy is certainly borne out at ground level. The Bohai sea, the innermost gulf of the Yellow Sea is said to be one of the busiest seaways in the world. Whatever is happening in North China or will happen in North China is connected with the Bohai Sea.

640px-Seaways_Plan_for_the_Bohai_Sea.svg.png                                  (Map: Wikimedia)

To the north and east of the Bohai Sea is the Sea of Japan, to the south is the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea. The sea (and until recently often referred to as a “bay”) has its opening through the Bohai Strait which runs between the Liaoning peninsula on the north and the Shandong peninsula on the south.  The Bohai Sea is the ocean outlet for North China and West China, and is the commercial hub known as the Bohai Sea Economic Zone, which could be thought of as stretching west, past Beijing all the way to Inner Mongolia and as far north as China goes. The Bohai Sea is bordered by Shandong, Liaoning,  and Hebei provinces and by the municipality of Tianjin. Prominent cities include Tianjin, Tangshan, Yantai and Dalian.

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A variety of industries make the Bohai Sea region the powerhouse of North China that it is. These include fisheries, shipbuilding, transportation, hydropower, salt making and oil and gas. Oil fields include Shengli, Suizhong 36-1and Gudao. In addition, several rivers flow into the Bohai Sea including the Yellow ,Hai, Liao and Luan.

Development of the region is not confined land: a plan has been put forward to build the world’s longest (123km) undersea tunnel connecting Dalian on the Liaoning peninsula to Yantai on the Shandong peninsula. This would cut travel time from eight hours to just under one hour. Construction costs and technology are under discussion but all indications suggest that the plan is a go for the not so distant future.

With so much development and constant traffic it is understandable that there are environmental concerns for the Bohai Sea area. Negative impacts that have been cited include pollution in Bohai Bay, loss of wetlands and a decrease in fish catches. These notwithstanding, it looks like the Bohai Sea and its surrounding area will only increase in importance to its region and to the overall Chinese economy.

 

http://www.unep.org/dewa/giwa/areas/reports/r34/regional_definition34b_giwa_r34.pdf

http://www.pemsea.org/profile/pollution-hotspots/bohai-sea

 

Taiwan Elections 2014: DPP Scores Big Win

Taiwan DPP Victory 29 Nov. 2014

                               DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen Announces Victory in 2014 Election (Photo: DPP)

Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) scored a decisive win over the ruling Nationalist Party (KMT) this weekend. The nine-in-one elections saw the opposition victorious in Taipei, Taoyuan and Greater Taichung. This election was the first time that the KMT had lost Taipei since 1998.

As a result of the election, Prime Minister Jiang Yi-huah resigned. President Ma Ying-jeou accepted Jiang’s resignation, apologized for the defeat and vowed to fight on. Observers seen the local election results as a referendum on Ma’s presidency, and a possible barometer for the 2016 presidential elections.The dismal showing by the KMT suggests that a majority of the Taiwanese people are not happy with KMT policies, particularly its ongoing relationship with Beijing. 

Taipei Times: Premier Quits After Landslide Defeat:

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2014/11/30/2003605651

DPP Chair’s Remarks on Victory:

http://english.dpp.org.tw/the-taiwanese-people-have-spoken/

Person of Interest: Narendra Modi, India’s 15th PM

                       by David Parmer / Tokyo

“However advanced the technology may become, life is impossible without humanity, and that’s why we need a combination of science of thinking and art of living” Indian PM N. Modi in Japan

Narendra Modi became India’s 15th Prime Minister on 26 May 2014. It was a long road to the top, and one characterized by incessant hard work and self-transformation. Modi came from a modest home in  India’s Gujurat state. He was reported to be an average student with a flair for rhetoric. While still a pre-teen he became interested in politics, and served a long political apprenticeship with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) or National Volunteer Organization, an Hindu patriotic organization.

 In his teen years he travelled throughout his country, often visiting Ashrams or religious schools, but he eventually returned to politics as a full-time RSS worker. Modi then became involved in Gujurat politics and finally rose to the position of chief minister. During this time he joined the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP). In 2001 Modi was named chief minister of Gujurat, a position that he held until he was elected PM in 2014. In 2002 the notorious Gujurat riots occurred in which ethnic Hindu-Muslim violence resulted in the death of hundreds and possibly thousands of people. Modi was cleared of responsibility by the courts, but many continue to hold him responsible for the violence. During his tenure as chief minister of Gujurat Modi emphasized economic development. In 2014 he won a clear majority as BJP supported prime minister.

 Modi is an interesting and complex character. He is a writer and poet with a flair for effective use of social media. On his website you can download some of his eBooks including:

  • Engaging the world
  • Make India Win
  • Fast Track Diplomacy
  • Digital Gujarat

Modi is a vegetarian who practices yoga and says he relaxes by working. A smart dresser, Indian media reports that he studied Public Relations techniques overseas. And he is nothing if not ambitious and forward looking. If there is such a thing as Indian soft power, PM Modi is its rock star. While he claims that he is not trying to counter Chinese influence, he is often traveling and meeting with regional and world leaders. India will hold a summit of 12 Pacific island nations in 2015, and President Barack Obama will be chief guest at India’s 66h Republic Day on January 26, 2015.

So the question is this: Is Mr. Modi what he seems to be? Is he an Indian nationalist who has become an internationalist?  Is the evolution of Narendra Modi from local Hindu politician to world leader complete, or is he just getting started? Perhaps Mr. M. is the right man at the right time for India, for the region and the world. Let us hope so.

 

 Narendra Modi ebooks online

http://www.narendramodi.in/category/ebooks/

Photo: Narendra Modi via flickr

China Unveils J-31 Stealth Fighter At Zuhai Airshow

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              Chinese J31 Stealth Fighter (Photo: SinaBlog)

China showed off its new J-31 stealth fighter at the biennial Zuhai Air Show last week. Known as the “Falcon Eagle”, the J-31 is China’s answer to America’s Lockheed Martin F-35. Built by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) this fifth generation fighter aircraft uses Chinese technology and is powered by Russian Klimov RD-93 engines. The J-31, like the F-35 is capable of being used on aircraft carriers. This would make it a prime candidate for China’s expanding naval aviation capability.

Of note at the Zuhai show was a scale model of the Shenyang FC-31, an export model of the J-31 produced by AVIC’s subsidiary Shenyang Aviation Company. According to experts, the FC-31 shows modifications not seen on the flying model of the J-31. The big question is who would be in the market for the FC-31. What countries have the need and could afford to add an advanced stealth fighter to their lineup? Pakistan is often cited as a possible customer for the J-31 to counter Indian acquisition of its own stealth fighter.

Recently, China has been criticized for being opaque in its defense capabilities and expenditures. The introduction of the J-31 in public might not have been designed to foster transparency, but it did give observers a first-hand look at what China is up to in the sky.

 

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20141115/DEFREG03/311150035/With-J-31-Flight-China-Makes-Statement 

On The Silk Road Again

640px-Silk_Road_1992.jpg                             (Photo: Wikimedia)

                              by David Parmer

Just about a year ago (November 2013) RG21 took a look at the development of the New Silk Road, (http://research-group21.com/admin/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&blog_id=3&id=98) the revival of the ancient route linking the Orient and Occident. China is now giving focused attention to this project, and so this week we will bring you an update on developments.

 China’s Xinhua News agency reported on November 8, that President Xi Jinping had pledged $40 billion for a New Silk Road Fund to link China and Europe. The fund to be overseen by Chinese banks, notably China Development Bank would promote the development of railways, ports, roads, pipelines and ports and related infrastructure.

The plan calls for not only a land-based Silk Road, but a maritime one as well. The land route would begin in Xi’an and end up in Europe, while the sea route would start in Guangdong province and terminate in Venice.

thediplomat_2014-05-08_17-47-26-386x230.png                                                             New Silk Road (Xinhua via Diplomat)

 The plan is bold and ambitious, but not without its dangers. The vulnerability for the land route lies in its traversing so many countries, subject these days to wars, revolutions and changes of government. A large section of the route goes through Russia which has ongoing tensions with Europe over Ukraine. Logistically, problems of customs clearance and different railroad track gauges need to be addressed. It seems that while the world is focusing on the Middle East and Iraq, China is taking a long term view that may just alter the face of global trade in modern times as did the original Silk Road in ancient times.

 

 Xinhua : http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-11/08/c_133774993.htm

 Financial Times: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e8664a0e-44dd-11e4-9a5a-00144feabdc0.html

 

ASEAN Members: Singapore

480px-View_from_UOB_Plaza_1,_Singapore_-_20091211.jpg                        Singapore Skyline (Wikimedia)

                                by David Parmer

In many ways Singapore can be considered an accidental country. It seems historical and geographical factors converged to create a unique state that started its life as a colonial possession and evolved to become a vibrant Asian democracy which has yet to reach its potential as a regional leader and model.

 There is an old saying in the real estate business: “location, location, location.” Meaning location is the key to property value. And “location” is just one of Singapore’s selling points. Singapore is located at the tip of the Malay peninsula with the Strait of Malacca to its left and the South China Sea to its right. The country consists of 63 islands and has a land mass of 241 sq. mi (624 sq.km)

The Strait of Malacca is one of the busiest waterways in the world, which makes Singapore one of the five busiest ports in the world. And this facilitates another Singapore business; ship repair. Other sectors of the vibrant Singapore economy include:

  • Financial services
  • Oil drilling
  • Rubber production
  • Manufacturing
  • Tourism

 To staff these industries Singapore can call upon a population of around 5.5 million-40% of whom are non-citizens.  Singaporeans speak English (30%) Mandarin Chinese (50%) and Malay (12%) Tamil (03%).  Other dialects of Chinese are also spoken. English, however, is considered a primary language. Singapore has an extensive state-supported school system in which students score high in mathematics and science. There are also two local  public universities that are highly ranked internationally.

 Singapore’s British connection began with a treaty to establish a trading post signed by Sir Stamford Raffles and the Sultan of Johor in 1819. It became a Crown Colony in 1946, achieved full self government in 1959. It briefly joined the Federation of Malaysia in 1963, and, in 1965, became a parliamentary republic.

Present day Singapore is one of the five founding members of ASEAN, is a member of the Non-Aligned Movement, and is a member of the British Commonwealth of Nations.

 In general Singapore has good relations with its neighbors, although there are border issues with Malaysia and an ongoing and severe pollution problem caused by slash-and-burn agriculture in neighboring Indonesia that blankets the city and often causes serious visibility problems in the hyper-busy Strait of Malacca.

 Singapore has a capable military and mandatory national service (draft). The country had assistance from Israel’s IDF in setting up its military, and besides Israel it has military connections with Australia, France and the US.

Singapore, the accidental country, looks to have a bright future. The real question is can it continue to embrace its ethnic and linguistic diversity to forge a long term and unique Singapore identity that will let it play to its strengths in this century and beyond. So far, so good.

 

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sn.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore#History

http://www.yoursingapore.com/meet-know-singapore.html

 

 

 

G20 Heads To Brisbane in November 2014

640px-Brisbane_Convention_&_Exhibition_Centre.jpg                                             Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre (Wikimedia)

G20 leaders head to Brisbane, Queensland Australia next month for the G20 Leaders’ meeting. From the 15-16 November 2014 leaders and 3,000 delegates from 19 countries and the European Union will meet to discuss a variety of issues important to the world economics (except climate change). The Brisbane Leaders’ Summit is the culmination of Australia’s 2014 presidency of the G20. During the year several sub-conferences were held leading up to Brisbane 2014.

The Leader’s Summit has been held eight times since 2008. The organization has met since 1999, and now welcomes some countries as observers.

Australia’s agenda for 2014 included a focus on:

  • Promoting stronger economic growth
  • Making the global economy more resilient to deal with future shocks

 The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre, and is seen as a chance to showcase Brisbane as a world city. Extensive preparations have been made for the event to include tight security during the time of the event.

 G20 2014:

https://www.g20.org/sites/default/files/documents/factsheets/Fact%20sheet-G20%20Leaders%20Summit.pdf 

 

 

China’s Innovaters—Names You Had Better Get To Know

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                         Li Jun Introduces new Xiaomi phone 

                                     by David Parmer

Can China innovate? Will China innovate? Does China innovate? It seems that some critics would rather make up their own answers to these questions than take a look at the evidence on the ground.They blame the government, the school system and the government industries for China’s inability to innovate. Rote learning and government interference are the big problems holding China back they say. What?

The evidence for Chinese innovation is clearly quite to the contrary of what critics are putting out. Current Chinese history is a story of constant and ongoing innovation. Chinese innovation can be seen in areas such as:

  • Telecommunications
  • Mobile technology
  • Online services
  • Biotechnology
  • Medical devices

The current period in China’s development is seen as a movement from imitation to innovation, from producer to designer. It is clear that this transition is not only ongoing but has massive government and industry support. Forbes magazine states that there are no less than 1500 R&D centers set up in China by foreign companies alone, not to mention Chinese institutions. Locally there are an estimated 700 hi-tech incubators, and China’s universities turn out 700,000 engineering graduates annually. The amount of R&D facilities around the city of Hangzhou alone is staggering. Some estimates give a figure of 2% of GDP for the R&D budget nationally.

Recently US Vice President Joe Biden challenged a university graduating class to name one innovative product from China. A very interesting reply came from CNN Money (see below) that named four Chinese organizations that might answer his question:

  • Xiaomi-mobile device maker
  • Tencent-messaging service
  • Huawei-telecom equipment maker
  • B.G.I- Biotech leader

 Much of China’s innovation is directed internally, but Xiaomi and Tencent (We Chat) and Lenovo have already made their presence known in the world market.

In the history of science we have the famous question posed by British scientist Dr. Joseph Needham: Why did China, the birthplace of so many ancient technologies that pre-dated their western counterparts, lose its technological will and edge to Europe and the west? Now the focus for the 21st century and beyond should be: What innovations can we expect from the people who gave us gunpowder, printing and the magnetic compass? 

 Photo: Androidheadlines.com

 CNN Money: http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/29/technology/innovation/biden-china-innovation/

China-Hotbed of Innovation: http://www.innovationmanagement.se/2013/01/09/china-hotbed-of-innovation-for-our-planet-in-the-21st-century/