“Research Group 21” |

Taiwan Elections 2014: DPP Scores Big Win

Taiwan DPP Victory 29 Nov. 2014

DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen Announces Victory in 2014 Election (Photo: DPP)

Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) scored a decisive win over the ruling Nationalist Party (KMT) this weekend. The nine-in-one elections saw the opposition victorious in Taipei, Taoyuan and Greater Taichung. This election was the first time that the KMT had lost Taipei since 1998.

As a result of the election, Prime Minister Jiang Yi-huah resigned. President Ma Ying-jeou accepted Jiang’s resignation, apologized for the defeat and vowed to fight on. Observers seen the local election results as a referendum on Ma’s presidency, and a possible barometer for the 2016 presidential elections.The dismal showing by the KMT suggests that a majority of the Taiwanese people are not happy with KMT policies, particularly its ongoing relationship with Beijing.

Taipei Times: Premier Quits After Landslide Defeat:

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2014/11/30/2003605651

DPP Chair’s Remarks on Victory:

http://english.dpp.org.tw/the-taiwanese-people-have-spoken/

Person of Interest: Narendra Modi, India’s 15th PM

by David Parmer / Tokyo

“However advanced the technology may become, life is impossible without humanity, and that’s why we need a combination of science of thinking and art of living” Indian PM N. Modi in Japan

Narendra Modi became India’s 15th Prime Minister on 26 May 2014. It was a long road to the top, and one characterized by incessant hard work and self-transformation. Modi came from a modest home in India’s Gujurat state. He was reported to be an average student with a flair for rhetoric. While still a pre-teen he became interested in politics, and served a long political apprenticeship with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) or National Volunteer Organization, an Hindu patriotic organization.

In his teen years he travelled throughout his country, often visiting Ashrams or religious schools, but he eventually returned to politics as a full-time RSS worker. Modi then became involved in Gujurat politics and finally rose to the position of chief minister. During this time he joined the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP). In 2001 Modi was named chief minister of Gujurat, a position that he held until he was elected PM in 2014. In 2002 the notorious Gujurat riots occurred in which ethnic Hindu-Muslim violence resulted in the death of hundreds and possibly thousands of people. Modi was cleared of responsibility by the courts, but many continue to hold him responsible for the violence. During his tenure as chief minister of Gujurat Modi emphasized economic development. In 2014 he won a clear majority as BJP supported prime minister.

Modi is an interesting and complex character. He is a writer and poet with a flair for effective use of social media. On his website you can download some of his eBooks including:

Engaging the world
Make India Win
Fast Track Diplomacy
Digital Gujarat

Modi is a vegetarian who practices yoga and says he relaxes by working. A smart dresser, Indian media reports that he studied Public Relations techniques overseas. And he is nothing if not ambitious and forward looking. If there is such a thing as Indian soft power, PM Modi is its rock star. While he claims that he is not trying to counter Chinese influence, he is often traveling and meeting with regional and world leaders. India will hold a summit of 12 Pacific island nations in 2015, and President Barack Obama will be chief guest at India’s 66h Republic Day on January 26, 2015.

So the question is this: Is Mr. Modi what he seems to be? Is he an Indian nationalist who has become an internationalist? Is the evolution of Narendra Modi from local Hindu politician to world leader complete, or is he just getting started? Perhaps Mr. M. is the right man at the right time for India, for the region and the world. Let us hope so.

Narendra Modi ebooks online

http://www.narendramodi.in/category/ebooks/

Photo: Narendra Modi via flickr

China Unveils J-31 Stealth Fighter At Zuhai Airshow

PRC Stealth.jpg

Chinese J31 Stealth Fighter (Photo: SinaBlog)

China showed off its new J-31 stealth fighter at the biennial Zuhai Air Show last week. Known as the “Falcon Eagle”, the J-31 is China’s answer to America’s Lockheed Martin F-35. Built by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) this fifth generation fighter aircraft uses Chinese technology and is powered by Russian Klimov RD-93 engines. The J-31, like the F-35 is capable of being used on aircraft carriers. This would make it a prime candidate for China’s expanding naval aviation capability.

Of note at the Zuhai show was a scale model of the Shenyang FC-31, an export model of the J-31 produced by AVIC’s subsidiary Shenyang Aviation Company. According to experts, the FC-31 shows modifications not seen on the flying model of the J-31. The big question is who would be in the market for the FC-31. What countries have the need and could afford to add an advanced stealth fighter to their lineup? Pakistan is often cited as a possible customer for the J-31 to counter Indian acquisition of its own stealth fighter.

Recently, China has been criticized for being opaque in its defense capabilities and expenditures. The introduction of the J-31 in public might not have been designed to foster transparency, but it did give observers a first-hand look at what China is up to in the sky.

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20141115/DEFREG03/311150035/With-J-31-Flight-China-Makes-Statement

On The Silk Road Again

(Photo: Wikimedia)

by David Parmer

Just about a year ago (November 2013) RG21 took a look at the development of the New Silk Road, (http://research-group21.com/admin/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&blog_id=3&id=98) the revival of the ancient route linking the Orient and Occident. China is now giving focused attention to this project, and so this week we will bring you an update on developments.

China’s Xinhua News agency reported on November 8, that President Xi Jinping had pledged $40 billion for a New Silk Road Fund to link China and Europe. The fund to be overseen by Chinese banks, notably China Development Bank would promote the development of railways, ports, roads, pipelines and ports and related infrastructure.

The plan calls for not only a land-based Silk Road, but a maritime one as well. The land route would begin in Xi’an and end up in Europe, while the sea route would start in Guangdong province and terminate in Venice.

New Silk Road (Xinhua via Diplomat)

The plan is bold and ambitious, but not without its dangers. The vulnerability for the land route lies in its traversing so many countries, subject these days to wars, revolutions and changes of government. A large section of the route goes through Russia which has ongoing tensions with Europe over Ukraine. Logistically, problems of customs clearance and different railroad track gauges need to be addressed. It seems that while the world is focusing on the Middle East and Iraq, China is taking a long term view that may just alter the face of global trade in modern times as did the original Silk Road in ancient times.

Xinhua : http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-11/08/c_133774993.htm

Financial Times: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e8664a0e-44dd-11e4-9a5a-00144feabdc0.html

ASEAN Members: Singapore

480px-View_from_UOB_Plaza_1,_Singapore_-_20091211.jpg Singapore Skyline (Wikimedia)

by David Parmer

In many ways Singapore can be considered an accidental country. It seems historical and geographical factors converged to create a unique state that started its life as a colonial possession and evolved to become a vibrant Asian democracy which has yet to reach its potential as a regional leader and model.

There is an old saying in the real estate business: “location, location, location.” Meaning location is the key to property value. And “location” is just one of Singapore’s selling points. Singapore is located at the tip of the Malay peninsula with the Strait of Malacca to its left and the South China Sea to its right. The country consists of 63 islands and has a land mass of 241 sq. mi (624 sq.km)

The Strait of Malacca is one of the busiest waterways in the world, which makes Singapore one of the five busiest ports in the world. And this facilitates another Singapore business; ship repair. Other sectors of the vibrant Singapore economy include:

Financial services
Oil drilling
Rubber production
Manufacturing
Tourism

To staff these industries Singapore can call upon a population of around 5.5 million-40% of whom are non-citizens. Singaporeans speak English (30%) Mandarin Chinese (50%) and Malay (12%) Tamil (03%). Other dialects of Chinese are also spoken. English, however, is considered a primary language. Singapore has an extensive state-supported school system in which students score high in mathematics and science. There are also two local public universities that are highly ranked internationally.

Singapore’s British connection began with a treaty to establish a trading post signed by Sir Stamford Raffles and the Sultan of Johor in 1819. It became a Crown Colony in 1946, achieved full self government in 1959. It briefly joined the Federation of Malaysia in 1963, and, in 1965, became a parliamentary republic.

Present day Singapore is one of the five founding members of ASEAN, is a member of the Non-Aligned Movement, and is a member of the British Commonwealth of Nations.

In general Singapore has good relations with its neighbors, although there are border issues with Malaysia and an ongoing and severe pollution problem caused by slash-and-burn agriculture in neighboring Indonesia that blankets the city and often causes serious visibility problems in the hyper-busy Strait of Malacca.

Singapore has a capable military and mandatory national service (draft). The country had assistance from Israel’s IDF in setting up its military, and besides Israel it has military connections with Australia, France and the US.

Singapore, the accidental country, looks to have a bright future. The real question is can it continue to embrace its ethnic and linguistic diversity to forge a long term and unique Singapore identity that will let it play to its strengths in this century and beyond. So far, so good.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sn.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore#History

http://www.yoursingapore.com/meet-know-singapore.html

G20 Heads To Brisbane in November 2014

640px-Brisbane_Convention_&_Exhibition_Centre.jpg Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre (Wikimedia)

G20 leaders head to Brisbane, Queensland Australia next month for the G20 Leaders’ meeting. From the 15-16 November 2014 leaders and 3,000 delegates from 19 countries and the European Union will meet to discuss a variety of issues important to the world economics (except climate change). The Brisbane Leaders’ Summit is the culmination of Australia’s 2014 presidency of the G20. During the year several sub-conferences were held leading up to Brisbane 2014.

The Leader’s Summit has been held eight times since 2008. The organization has met since 1999, and now welcomes some countries as observers.

Australia’s agenda for 2014 included a focus on:

Promoting stronger economic growth
Making the global economy more resilient to deal with future shocks

The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre, and is seen as a chance to showcase Brisbane as a world city. Extensive preparations have been made for the event to include tight security during the time of the event.

G20 2014:

https://www.g20.org/sites/default/files/documents/factsheets/Fact%20sheet-G20%20Leaders%20Summit.pdf

China’s Innovaters—Names You Had Better Get To Know

Li Jun Introduces new Xiaomi phone

by David Parmer

Can China innovate? Will China innovate? Does China innovate? It seems that some critics would rather make up their own answers to these questions than take a look at the evidence on the ground.They blame the government, the school system and the government industries for China’s inability to innovate. Rote learning and government interference are the big problems holding China back they say. What?

The evidence for Chinese innovation is clearly quite to the contrary of what critics are putting out. Current Chinese history is a story of constant and ongoing innovation. Chinese innovation can be seen in areas such as:

Telecommunications
Mobile technology
Online services
Biotechnology
Medical devices

The current period in China’s development is seen as a movement from imitation to innovation, from producer to designer. It is clear that this transition is not only ongoing but has massive government and industry support. Forbes magazine states that there are no less than 1500 R&D centers set up in China by foreign companies alone, not to mention Chinese institutions. Locally there are an estimated 700 hi-tech incubators, and China’s universities turn out 700,000 engineering graduates annually. The amount of R&D facilities around the city of Hangzhou alone is staggering. Some estimates give a figure of 2% of GDP for the R&D budget nationally.

Recently US Vice President Joe Biden challenged a university graduating class to name one innovative product from China. A very interesting reply came from CNN Money (see below) that named four Chinese organizations that might answer his question:

Xiaomi-mobile device maker
Tencent-messaging service
Huawei-telecom equipment maker
B.G.I- Biotech leader

Much of China’s innovation is directed internally, but Xiaomi and Tencent (We Chat) and Lenovo have already made their presence known in the world market.

In the history of science we have the famous question posed by British scientist Dr. Joseph Needham: Why did China, the birthplace of so many ancient technologies that pre-dated their western counterparts, lose its technological will and edge to Europe and the west? Now the focus for the 21st century and beyond should be: What innovations can we expect from the people who gave us gunpowder, printing and the magnetic compass?

Photo: Androidheadlines.com

CNN Money: http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/29/technology/innovation/biden-china-innovation/

China-Hotbed of Innovation: http://www.innovationmanagement.se/2013/01/09/china-hotbed-of-innovation-for-our-planet-in-the-21st-century/

NATO’s Gets 13th Secretary General

Jens Stoltenberg (Photo: NATO)

On October 1, 2014 former Norwegian prime minister Jens Stoltenberg (55) became the 13th secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Born in 1959, Stoltenberg comes from a political family: his father was a politician and ambassador and his mother state secretary. Stoltenberg was a member of Norway’s parliament for 20 years, starting in 1993.

He served as prime minister from 200-2001, and then again from 2005-2013. Stoltenberg came to world attention after the domestic terrorist attack by Andres Behring Breivik which resulted in the death of 77 people. During his second term in office he increased Norway’s military spending, an action urged by US President Barack Obama on all NATO partners.

Analysts say the biggest challenge for the economist/politician will be dealing with Russia, particularly in light of the ongoing Ukraine crisis. Stoltenberg takes over from fellow Scandinavian politician Andres Fogh Rasmussen as 13th NATO secretary general. It is hoped that the number 13 will be a lucky one for him, and for the alliance.

Asian Waters—The Very Busy Strait of Malacca

Strait of Mallaca (Photo: Maritime Trade Intelligence)

by David Parmer

You could argue that the Malacca strait is not just the most important waterway in Asia, but is also the most important waterway in the world. And you would be on strong ground in doing so. Just look at the facts. Every year 50-60,000 ships pass through the strait of Malacca. One-third of the world’s shipping trade and an enormous amount of crude oil (15.2m barrels a day in 2011) and petroleum products make the trip from the Andaman Sea to the South China Sea. It is the shortest sea route between the Persian Gulf and Asia, specifically resource-hungry countries like China, Japan and Korea.

The Malacca Strait is a 550-mile-long sea route, ranging in width from a wide 155miles, to 40 miles to a very harrowing 1.7 miles wide (in the Phillips Channel of the Singapore Strait). The Malacca Strait flows between Indonesia and Malaysia and Singapore. The maritime standard for the area is Malaccamax, i.e. that it can handle vessels with a maximum draught of 82 feet. But for vessels of any size, the busy Malacca Strait is not without its dangers.

malacca-strait-1.gif.jpeg

Map:Strait of Malacca (Encyclopedia of Earth)

In such a heavily trafficked area there is always danger of grounding, collision and oil spills. Sea-Seek Sailing Guide reports that there are 34 shipwrecks in the traffic separation channel. Add to this the annual appearance of serious haze from slash-and-burn agriculture on Sumatra that cuts visibility down to 200 meters. And finally, there is the scourge of mariners worldwide throughout history: piracy.

Reports of the extent of Malacca piracy vary, some say it has decreased to almost nothing, and others say there is a sharp rise in attacks on merchant shipping. Reports from 2013 show a steady decline in attacks, while others pinpoint Malacca as a piracy hot spot comparable to the Somali coast. Increase or decrease notwithstanding, the Malacca Strait is an area where pirates abound. Malacca pirates mostly target valuables on the ships and crews’ possessions, although some more sophisticated gangs steal oil products. In 2006, due to a decreased risk, the global insurer Lloyds dropped its “war risk classification” for ships sailing the strait.

Decreased piracy activity is due in part thanks to the Malacca Straits Sea Patrol, operated by Indonesia, Malaysian, Singapore and Thailand. These countries also share information and intelligence on piracy. Countries in the region also cooperate through membership in the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP). In September 2014, the United States became the 20th member of ReCAAP, and sent a US Coast Guard admiral to sit on its board.

Since 2007, there has also been three-nation cooperation through the Cooperative Mechanism on Safety of Navigation and Environmental Protection in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.

So, is the Strait of Malacca the most important waterway in Asia and in the world? If you say “yes” you will probably be right.

Piracy Decrease:

http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/manualassets/pirates_2014/index.html

Piracy Increase:

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/indonesia/140326/malacca-strait-piracy-hotspot

Regional, 20-Country Anti-Piracy Organization:

http://www.recaap.org

U.S. Sends Rice To China

Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi (R) holds talks with U.S. President Barack Obama’s National Security Advisor Susan Rice in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 8, 2014. (Xinhua/Wang Ye)

On September 2, 2014, the US National Security Council released the following statement:

From September 7-9, 2014, National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice will travel to Beijing, China, for meetings with senior Chinese officials, including State Councilor Yang Jiechi, to consult on a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues. She will underscore the United States’ commitment to building a productive relationship between our two countries in advance of the President’s visit to China in November.

The purpose of Rice’s visit was to lay the groundwork for President Barack Obama’s visit to the PRC in November after the APEC meeting. Rice was the guest of State Councilor Yang Jiechi, and it appears that the substantive talks during this trip took place on September 8, with Yang. According to Chinese reports, they discussed a number of issues.

From the Chinese side, Yang said China hopes to:

Implement consensus reached previously by both heads of state
Advance strategic mutual trust
Enhance cooperation
Manage and control differences

From the American side, Rice said the US hopes to:

Continue to maintain high-level dialogue
Have in-depth discussions on a wide range of regional and global issues
Make a bi-lateral commitment to building a new model of major country relationships

On September 9, Rice met with Foreign Minister Wang Yi where Wang stated that China sees Obama’s visit as a meeting of great importance. The issue of a new style of world power relations was addressed by Wang. Also on September 9, Rice met General Fan Changlong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Discussions were pointed, with China expressing strong concern about US close-in surveillance. Rice and Fan also discussed other issues concerning military cooperation and the new style world power relations.

Finally on September 9, Rice met with President Xi Jinping where they discussed a variety of issues and the new model for China-US major country relationship. During her visit Rice reiterated that there was a lot happening in her area of responsibility globally, but that the US saw her visit to China as a top priority.

Chinese foreign minister meets US National Security Advisor:

http://www.ecns.cn/2014/09-09/133630.shtml

Yang Jiechi holds talks with Assistant to the President for National Security:http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1189597.shtml