議論の場 | RG21

Person of Interest: UK Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn

by David Parmer / Tokyo

For 32 years Jeremy Corbyn, Labour M.P., has represented the people of his constituency, Islington North in the Parliament of the United Kingdom. And now, the day may not be far off when Mr. Corbyn will represent the whole country and the Commonwealth as its Prime Minister.

Mr. Corbyn has been head of the Labour Party since his victory in 2015, but it was Labour’s win in the June 2017 election that has brought him to center stage. The press now talks of his “rock star” quality, especially in relation to the fading Theresa May, current Prime Minister. It is said that the Tories underestimated Mr. Corbyn and his organization in the last election, a mistake that they will probably not make in the next one. But perhaps there has been a shift in British politics and now it is time for Labour, with Mr. Corbyn at its helm, to have a go at the problems, challenges and opportunities that the UK is faced with.

Mr. Corbyn’s heart is with the left, and it has been there consistently.He is no flip-flopper when it comes to issues from Cuba to Syria to the economy. He says he is not a Marxist, but a Socialist, and on a number of issues he favors:

Public ownership of certain utilities and certain means of transport
Tax relief for the middle class
A united Ireland
Non-intervention militarily in the Middle East
A revised policy towards Saudi Arabia
A negotiated settled between Madrid and Catalonia
An equitable solution to the Palestinian question
Republicanism, but not abolishing the Royal Family
A revised Cuba policy
No British military response to North Korea

The question is will the Conservative Party continue to be seen as lackluster come the next election, and will Labour’s star, and indeed Mr. Corbyn’s star continue to rise. Will there be a shift to the Left in Europe, and will the UK get to experience Socialism with British Characteristics? Please log in and let us know what you think.

Photo:Chatham House via flickr

Making History

By Bill Lee

As the world knows, US President Donald Trump and Workers’ Party of Korea Chairman Kim Jong Un have been engaged in an escalating war of insults. Trump called Kim “little Rocket Man,” and Kim retaliated by calling Trump a “mentally deranged US dotard.” Kim wins that one.

But this mad spiral into acrimony could have serious repercussions, like nuclear war. This brinksmanship heading towards the chasm of disaster brings to (my) mind the old question about whether nations’ leaders can change or create history. Do Great Men (or women) make history, or do the forces of history move inexorably forward, as Marx thought, with individual human agency being just a bug in a gale?

For me, it depends on how we define “history.” And that, friends, is quite a task. I will go out on the limb and say that history is a teleological progression, a process heading toward some goal. That progression need not be linear, and, indeed, it is more likely cyclical or dialectical. The final goal is aspirational. I’m glad we cleared that up.

Now we have to examine some Great Leaders to see if they moved History forward. In the last century, we had Lenin, Roosevelt, Churchill, Hitler. Churchill is roundly considered the greatest leader in the 20^th century. But did he make history, did he move it forward? No, his energies were focused on stopping fascism not extending democracy (they booted him out just after the war). Hitler certainly created an impact, but the havoc he caused set history back. The only leader I can see who really propelled history forward is Mao Zedong. The peasant revolution may have been one of the forces of history waiting to happen, but it was Mao who recognized this and led that revolution. Would there have been one without Mao? Thus to my mind, the Great Leader theory of history is very rare, Mao the most recent exception, and mostly it is the forces of history churning inexorably forward.

Which brings us to our maxim for the day: Great Leaders can make history, but fools like Trump and Kim can only pervert it.

Kurds Vote on Independence

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Kurds in Northern Iraq voted overwhelmingly for an independent state on September 25th. The vote was said to be “non-binding” but 93% of those who voted supported an independent Kurdish state.

Opposition to the vote came swiftly, first form the central government in Baghdad, which banned flights to Kurdistan and took measures to take control of borders long managed by Kurdish fighters. Nor did the Kurds get much international support. The United States did not recognize the referendum and stated that it supports a united Iraq. Neighboring countries with Kurdish populations such as Iran and Turkey also condemned the vote.

The Kurds are now in a tricky position; having called for independence the question is “What next?” Without widespread international or regional support, it seems they are not going anywhere near independence soon. A worst-case scenario would be an Iraqi civil war, a conflict that no one would or could win.

So what are your thoughts on the thorny issue? How could it be resolved, and what will happen next. Please log in and let us know what you think.

Photo: Kurdish YPG Fighter via Kurdishstruggle

The Strait of Malacca – Still Crowded, Still Dangerous and Still Vitally Important.

by David Parmer/Tokyo

Two years ago RG21 took a look at the Malacca Strait in its Asian Waterways series. Our view was that it was possibly the most important waterway in the world. Not much has changed since then, and the “big three” issues surrounding the strait remain at the forefront: traffic, piracy and geopolitics.

The numbers for piracy in 2017 are quite encouraging. Piracy in the Malacca Strait is down 24% year-on-year since 2016. This is thanks largely to the Malacca Straits Patrol supported by maritime assets from Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Problematic however, is the shift in pirate activity eastward to the Sibutu Passage in the Sulu-Celebes Sea area. Joint patrols by Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia are attempting to deal with this situation.

In 2014, we reported that the number of vessels transiting the Malacca Strait was in excess of 60,000. Last year the number jumped to more than 83,000. In such an highly trafficked area, accidents are inevitable. Two high-profile accidents have happened in the second half of this year. On August 21, the USS John S. McCain collided with an oil tanker in the strait resulting in the loss of life of 10 sailors. And in September an Indonesian tanker collided with a Dominican-registered dredger resulting in two dead and three crew missing.Traffic remains a critical problem and will probably only worsen resulting in further collisions and mishaps.

With such an important and vital waterway, it would not be surprising that geopolitics is a key concern in the equation. States with varying territorial claims and in and around the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean are seen to be jockeying for position to ensure their advantage in the present, and to be prepared in case of any future conflicts. Chinese, Indian and Pakistan submarines ply the waters of the region, and as of June 2017 India has stepped up its surface and airborne patrols around the Andman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal. Australia too continues its long-standing air patrols of the region, and joint US-Indian cooperation is increasing.

So, in two more years will the area have quieted down? Probably not. While piracy might be capped, traffic and geopolitical considerations will make the Malacca Strait and its littoral and maritime regions an area that looms large on everyone’s radar.

Photo: US Pacific Fleet via flickr

Breaking: India-China End Doklam Standoff

by David Parmer/Tokyo

In a surprise move on August 28, India and China agreed to disengagement in the Doklam region. Details are sketchy but Indian forces have pulled back ending the standoff that has gone on since June 2017. The Indian and Chinese leaders are scheduled to meet next month at the BRICS summit in China, and this quick resolution may have been pushed forward to facilitate that meeting.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a terse statement saying that disengagement is ongoing, while China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that Indian forces had withdrawn personnel and equipment that were on Chinese territory.

Disengagement and de-escalation are a good thing for both of these great powers and for the time being lives have been saved. However, border issues between China and India have been going on for decades, and will likely continue. Is there a solution that would end the threat of war once and for all? Please let us know your opinion on this.

Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement

Indian Ministry of External Affairs statement

Photo: J. Singh Bawa via flickr

India VS China Border Tension – Here we go again.

by David Parmer/Tokyo

An expert on international affairs from London’s famed Chatham House research institute was quoted by CNBC on August 16 as saying ” All logic says it won’t happen.” The expert was talking about the current India-China border tensions turning into war. Sadly, logic has little to do with situations that have reached a certain tipping point, and the current one might just have some logic-defying outcomes.

Tensions have been building since June 2017 when India sent troops to stop the building of a road by China in territory that it considers to be in Bhutan, a country whose defense matters are overseen by India. (The area is called Doklam by the Indians and Donglang by the Chinese.) Since then, China has beefed-up its forces and logistics in the area, and its media has repeatedly warned India to withdraw. A war of words has ensued.

On August 15 the South China Morning Post reported that India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi gave a stern warning during his speech on India’s Independence Day when he said:

” Be it the sea or the borders, cyber or space–in all spheres India is capable and we are strong enough to overcome those who try to act against our country.”

As was the case in 1962, India’s forces are no match for the Chinese PLA on paper. This, however, does not mean that they would not put up stiff resistance should fighting occur. Also, this time the Indian Air Force would certainly enter the fray. Indian naval forces would also probably perform well when called upon to do so.

The Doklam Plateau area is a sensitive area to the Indians, first because, of course, it is a disputed border area, but also because it is only about 34KM from the Siligun Corridor which is a vital supply line to India’s Northwest region.

Tensions have also started to simmer in the Ladak, Jammu and Kashmir region where PLA troops attempted to enter Indian-claimed territory.

On August 20, China’s Global Times reported that China’s PLA Western Theater Command carried out military exercises in which 10 units took part, and that these exercises included live fire training.

If we look at the 1962 India-China conflict, we see a number of similarities. In both cases we see a “war of words” carried out in their respective newspapers and now online. Today we can also see steadily rising tensions and warnings by the Chinese.

What followed in 1962 in India (and in China’s border disputes with its other neighbors, Russia and Viet Nam) was a lightning Chinese military strike followed by a period of calm and a Chinese withdrawal. In China’s border conflicts the term “teach a lesson” was repeated by China as one of its military objectives.

The question is now will China attempt to “teach a lesson” again to India, or will tensions de-escalate? The truth is it could go either way, and logic aside there could again be armed conflict at the top of the world. Please log in and give us your thoughts on this question.

Photo: dhiraj kateja via YouTube

Thucydides’ Mouse Trap

By Bill Lee

Graham Allison’s prognostications about a future war between China and the United States are like those of earthquake predictors. In his much-discussed book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Allison states that a US-China war is “more probable” than usually considered but not “inevitable.” You can’t lose with a prediction like that: “The chances are that a big earthquake will happen soon but it may be delayed for another 100, 10,000, or 1,000,000 years”; in other words, well after the predictor is dead. In the case of earthquake predictors, they may use a time scale of 300 years to develop their probabilities; Allison uses a time scale of 500 years and examines 16 historical cases, 12 of which prove his thesis.

The original Thucydides’ Trap of course happened when the rising Athens frightened Sparta into thinking they were threatened, which led them to start the Peloponnesian War. The theory holds that a rising power will often come into conflict with a dominant, established one.

Xi Jinping has already said there is no such thing as a Thucydides’ Trap. And according to Prof. Arthur Waldron of the University of Pennsylvania, the two greatest American classicists of the 20^th century, Prof. Donald Kagan of Yale and the late Prof. Ernst Badian of Harvard, showed that the idea of a Thucydides’ Trap does not actually exist in Thucydides’ text on the Peloponnesian War. What argues best against China falling into the Thucydides’ Trap and provoking war with America is the scourge that Thucydides himself could never have imagined: nuclear weapons.

Allison concludes that America can respond in four ways to the rising China: accommodate it, undermine it, make a long-term (30 years) treaty with the PRC, or define a new relationship with the Chinese. A new relationship means working with China to deal with other global problems like terrorism and, most importantly, climate change.

But why even suggest China is idiotic enough to start an Armageddonic war with America? To jump on the anti-China bandwagon and sell books? To have a complete misreading of China’s intentions? I suspect the latter. One thing that is very striking about Allison’s book is the references. He constantly refers to pronouncements by Henry Kissinger, certainly a major figure in US diplomacy towards China but not, despite a slim book on Chinese history, a true China scholar. Lee Kuan Yew gets quoted several times, but, incredibly, so does Whitaker Chambers (of Alger Hiss fame) for his views on Communism. In other words, Allison is clearly not an expert on China. In fact, reading over the long list of names in the Acknowledgement section of the book, I could not find one Chinese name. A strange omission for a book dealing with a very serious issue about China.

UNESCO World Heritage Sites– The Wild Altai Mountains

by David Parmer/Tokyo

These days we often focus on the destruction going on around planet Earth and we seem to forget that which is being preserved. Naturally, destruction makes a better and more dramatic news story, while preservation is somewhat tame by comparison. A story of wonderful preservation that needs to be told is the designation of the Altai (Altay) mountain range in western Asia as a UNESCO World Heritage Site, which began on the Russian side in 1998.

The Altai Mountains extend from northwest to southeast. They are 1650 km long and 130-200 km wide and abut on four countries: Russia, China Kazakhstan and Mongolia. They are the source of the Irtysh and Ob rivers and home to many spectacularly beautiful lakes. The highest mountain, Youyi tops out at 4,374m.

Rugged beauty and breath-taking scenery, while certainly important weren’t, the main reasons that UNESCO chose the Altai as a World-Heritage Site. No, what makes the Altai unique and well-worth preserving are its unique flora and fauna–plants and animals found nowhere else on Earth.

The Altai have mixed vegetation zones that include:

Steppe
Forest steppe
Mixed forest
Subalpine vegetation
Alpine vegetation
Glaciers
Wetlands

Because the Altai have had a stable climate since the Ice Age, the area still contains Ice Age fauna including:

Siberian ibex
Deer
Boar
Snow leopard
Altai Argali
Lynx
Brown bear

UNESCO has already designated the Russian North Slope ecosystem as the Golden Mountains of Altai. This area includes the Altai and Katun Nature reserves, Lake Teletskoye, Mt. Beluka and the Ukok Plateau. On the Chinese side the Chinese National Nature Reserve and the Provincial Nature reserves have been UNESCO-nominated. Together the Russian and Chinese sections represent the north and south slope ecosystems of the Altai.

There is tourism in the Altai, particularly on the Russian side. However, travel there at present is for the hardy and fit. Mass tourism has yet to arrive, and there is no Altai Disneyland or theme parks.

But all is not well in paradise, as there is a standing plan to build a gas pipeline from southern Siberia to northwest China through Altai that would cross the Ukok Plateau, home of the endangered Snow Leopard.

So when would be a good time to visit these mountains? Probably as soon as possible, for even in a protected UNESCO designated area change is both inevitable and ongoing.

Would you like to visit this region? Give us your thoughts.

Photo: Lake Kucherla wikipedia

Map: Kazakhstan website

Photo: http://www.slope.ru/index.php/mountain-adventures/altai-mountains

Happy Birthday Canada! 150 Years and Counting.

Well, just about everyone loves a birthday party, and Canada had a big one last weekend. There were all kinds of events held to commemorate the 150th anniversary of Canada’s federation, when Canada, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick joined to form a dominion (basically a country) on July 1, 1867. In truth, Canada didn’t get real independence till 1931, with some finishing touches in 1982.

However, Queen Elizabeth II is still the sovereign of Canada. (And Australia and New Zealand as well as the United Kingdom.) It was fitting then that Prince Charles and the Duchess of Cornwall make their appearance at celebrations held this past weekend.

Canada Day festivities were held on Parliament Hill, Ottawa. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke his message of inclusiveness:

“We don’t care where you’re from or what religion you practice, or whom you love–you’re all welcome in Canada.”

Not everyone was prepared to have a good time. Many Indigenous people felt the celebrations were not for them and declined to participate. There were also rumblings about the construction of an oil pipeline. However Saturday and Sunday’s 150-year celebrations, despite rainy weather, seemed to be something that most Canadians chose to support and celebrate.

To cap it off, Donald Trump, head of state of Canada’s southern neighbor Tweeted:

“Happy Canada Day to all the great people of Canada and to your Prime Minister and my new found friend @ Justin Trudeau #Canada 150”

So what more could one ask for? Happy 150 Canada! Here’s wishing you another great 150!

( Does Canada really have a bright future? Log in and let us know what you think.)

Photo: Don The Up North Memories via flickr

Sontaku — Currying Favor

by Bill Lee

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Donald Trump have something in common: brewing scandals. Abe’s has to do with possible influence peddling and Trump’s with the Russian interference in the US elections. The common thread between them is that it is difficult to prove actual direct involvement by either of them.

In Japan the Abe scandals center on what is called sontaku seiji (忖度政治). In the dictionary definition of the word, sontaku means “to suppose, to conjecture, to assume.” But in this context, sontaku means to try to curry favor with higher-ups by anticipating what you think they want and acting proactively without waiting for instructions. The fishy and creepy nursery school operator, Yasunori Kagoike, who is at the center of the Moritomo Gakuen scandal, accused bureaucrats of being the cause of the sweetheart land deal that saw him acquire land for a nursery school at a cut rate because they were trying to please, and thus curry favor with, Abe, who supported Kagoike. Sontaku is supposed by Japanese to be a uniquely Japanese (or Chinese, since the word first appears in a Chinese poem) practice, probably because of the suggestion of unspoken communication.

But we can see a good example of sontaku in America. The Trump election team is suspected of being involved in some sort of collusion with the Russians, yet no hard evidence has so far surfaced to substantiate the claim. And none likely will. We can very easily see sontaku at work here as Trump underlings, trying to anticipate Trump’s wishes and thus curry favor with him, contacting the Russians to collude in their election hacking. Trump never ordered them to work with the Russians, so his hands are clean, and he will never be implicated.

By the way, despite liberals’ fantasies, Trump will probably be never impeached. Even if he were, he would never satisfy liberals’ fervent wish to see him reflect on his transgressions, or to show any remorse for his transgressions. It would be a very unsatisfying scene. Trump would likely just shrug, and say, “So I was impeached. Life goes on. Being president wasn’t such a great gig anyway. I’m going to build some golf courses.” Any bets on Trump winning a second term?