タグ: India-China

                            by David Parmer/Tokyo

An expert on international affairs from London’s famed Chatham House research institute was quoted by CNBC on August 16 as saying ” All logic says it won’t happen.” The expert was talking about the current India-China border tensions turning into war. Sadly, logic has little to do with situations that have reached a certain tipping point, and the current one might just have some logic-defying outcomes.

Tensions have been building since June 2017 when India sent troops to stop the building of a road by China in territory that it considers to be in Bhutan, a country whose defense matters are overseen by India. (The area is called Doklam by the Indians and Donglang by the Chinese.) Since then, China has beefed-up its forces and logistics in the area, and its media has repeatedly warned India to withdraw. A war of words has ensued.

On August 15 the South China Morning Post reported that India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi gave a stern warning during his speech on India’s Independence Day when he said:

” Be it the sea or the borders, cyber or space–in all spheres India is capable and we are strong enough to overcome those who try to act against our country.”

As was the case in 1962, India’s forces are no match for the Chinese PLA on paper. This, however, does not mean that they would not put up stiff resistance should fighting occur. Also, this time the Indian Air Force would certainly enter the fray. Indian naval forces would also probably perform well when called upon to do so.

The Doklam Plateau area is a sensitive area to the Indians, first because, of course, it is a disputed border area, but also because it is only about 34KM from the Siligun Corridor which is a vital supply line to India’s Northwest region.

Tensions have also started to simmer in the Ladak, Jammu and Kashmir region where PLA troops attempted to enter Indian-claimed territory.

On August 20, China’s Global Times reported that China’s PLA Western Theater Command carried out military exercises in which 10 units took part, and that these exercises included live fire training.

If we look at the 1962 India-China conflict, we see a number of similarities. In both cases we see a “war of words” carried out in their respective newspapers and now online. Today we can also see steadily rising tensions and warnings by the Chinese.

What followed in 1962 in India (and in China’s border disputes with its other neighbors, Russia and Viet Nam) was a lightning Chinese military strike followed by a period of calm and a Chinese withdrawal. In China’s border conflicts the term “teach a lesson” was repeated by China as one of its military objectives.

The question is now will China attempt to “teach a lesson” again to India, or will tensions de-escalate? The truth is it could go either way, and logic aside there could again be armed conflict at the top of the world. Please log in and give us your thoughts on this question.

Photo: dhiraj kateja via YouTube