Place your bets — Where will China’s next overseas military base be?

By Bill Lee

For those who like board games like Civilization, a “gamer” would surely love a game built around the development of China’s overseas bases and ports, and a board game creator would probably make a handsome profit for designing such a game. There is one problem, however: China’s rapid and multi-directional moves would soon render the game arrangement obsolete.

Now that China has a functioning military base in Djibouti with an exclusive-use port facility also attached, the game is on among pundits about where China will open its next military base. The base in Djibouti makes perfect sense since much of China’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz and China sends large contingents of UN PKO units to Africa.

China has leased ports or bought the operating rights for several ports around the world. Stretching westward, China is building an artificial island that will have port facilities in the Strait of Malacca, as well as expanding the port of Kuantan on Malaysia’s east coast. Farther south, China’s Landbridge Group acquired a 99-year lease for Darwin port at the northern tip of Australia.

China has also bought the operating rights for Colombo Port City and Hanbantotan port in the southern part of Sri Lanka. China has acquired the operating rights for Gwadar port in Pakistan. And at the doorstep to Europe, the Chinese shipping and port giant Cosco has purchased the operating rights for the port of Piraeus in Greece. Chinese companies also have leases for ports in Panama and Brazil.

So excepting the South China Sea, where might China establish another military, not commercial, base, or a combination of the two? Because it has a strong relationship with Pakistan and sells it billions of dollars worth of military hardware, the Gwadar port area seems a leading candidate, particularly considering Gwadar’s strategic location as a mid-way point to the Middle East and beyond and as the hub of China’s “Silk Road.”

China’s military and economic planners must now be moving pieces around their global game boards looking for the best location for their next overseas military facility. Where will it be?

Say It Ain’t So — Another Icon Down the Drain

By Bill Lee

The rapidly growing list of powerful and rich men charged with sexual harassment, misconduct, and assault in the United States and elsewhere recently is astounding. Starting with beloved television star Bill Cosby, going on to Fox News giants Roger Ailes and Bill O’Reilly, snaring legendary movie producer Harvey Weinstein, and then recently bringing down the likes of film and theater star Kevin Spacey, liberal politicians Al Franken and John Conyers, ultra-conservative senatorial candidate Roy Moore, television news icon Charlie Rose, and others, the list disregards race, age, political creed, and sexual orientation. The necessary conditions for inclusion on the list seem to require that the harasser/attacker be male and in a position of significant power. And of course heading the list, but not suffering any of the consequences befalling the others, is the sexual predator in the White House, who, according to a recent New York Times report, has suggested, unbelievably, that the Access Hollywood tape in which he boasts about his sexual assaults, is “fake.”

The causes of the sexual predatory behavior are not obscure, but the consequences are not self-evident as they include, according to accounts from victims, (repressed) feelings of trauma and terror. And on a cheaply political level, will all of these revelations reduce the pool of future male political candidate who may be apprehensive that some inappropriate behavior done 20 years previously will come out? That reduction is a good thing, some will argue.

A controversy of sorts was sparked in China by an article in the China Daily in the wake of the allegations against Weinstein that claimed that sexual harassment does not happen in China because of cultural traditions. That caused quick and sharp repudiations of the claim, and the newspaper removed the article.

In the United States, the obtuse may shrug off the tsunami of allegations as part of the unravelling fabric of American culture or of a deeper strand of human nature, but many will see them as a learning moment that should be taken very seriously.

Is Donald Trump a moron?

By Bill Lee

Is Donald Trump a moron? As leaders in Asia get ready to host the US president in the coming weeks, that question deserves consideration. As has been reported, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reportedly called Trump a “moron,” officially a “fucking moron,” because he was angered that Trump had turned a speech to the Boy Scouts of America, which Tillerson was once the president of, into a political campaign speech, replete with calls to “lock her (Hillary Clinton), up.” Tillerson never actually denied using the epithet to describe Trump so we can assume the reporting is true.

Trump regularly uses the tactic of hurling charges made against him back at the parties making the charges. Accordingly, he called the executives of NBC News, which broke the story, “morons.” He of course now regularly speaks of the “fake news” put out by network and cable news companies that originally pointed out the false claims made by Trump. And now that the Mueller investigation is getting grand juries to indict Trump associates, if not Trump himself, the Donald is accusing Hillary Clinton of receiving bribes from the Russians.

Who is the big winner in all of this? Xi Jinping. As Fareed Zakaria pointed out in his latest GPS program, Xi’s rise not only in China, but in many countries around the world, is due not necessarily to the brilliance of Xi, of which there is clear evidence, but to the decline of America, embodied by its president, Donald Trump.

The answer to the question: “Is Donald Trump a moron?” Yes.

Making a Difference: ROBOTERRA’s Yao Zhang

by David Parmer / Tokyo

At 33, Yao Zhang is already making a difference in the world of education and robotics. Zhang has been nominated as one of the World Economic Forum’s Young Global Leaders and included in Robohub’s “25 women in robotics you need to know about.” She has also been acknowledged by the US Department of State which awarded her its “Best 10 Global Citizen Service Award.”

Yao Zhang is CEO and co-founder of ROBOTERRA, a Silicon Valley/ China startup that makes hardware kits and software backup for kids to learn both robotics and programming.

In 2014 Zhang and co-founder Sui Shalong, an Apple alumnus formed the company in Santa Clara, California. This was Zhang’s second successful startup, the first being Minds Abroad, a company focused on improving study abroad programs worldwide.

Zhang graduated from the Beijing Central University of Finance and Economics and then took a Ph.D. at Columbia University. She followed that with short stints at McKinsey and Co. and the Soros Foundation before starting her own ventures.

ROBOTERRA kits are designed to teach children to build and program robots. The Origin kit is priced at around US$300. Users get a modular kit and the use of Castle Rock programing software using C++. Zhang’s aim is not only to introduce users to robotics but also teach logic and give them a boost in their STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) curriculum. The kits can be found in 500 schools in 30 countries.

Website: roboterra.com

Photo: World Economic Forum via flickr

2017 Report on Russian Military Power and Objectives

by David Parmer / Tokyo

“The Russian military has built on the military doctrine, structure, and capabilities of the former Soviet Union, and although still dependent on many of the older Soviet platforms, the Russians have modernized their military strategy, doctrine, and tactics to include use of asymmetric weapons like cyber and indirect action such as was observed in Ukraine.”

The 2017 unclassified report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (Russia Military Power–Building A Military to Support Great Power Aspirations) is the current version of a report titled Soviet Military Power mandated by then Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger in 1981.

The “comeback” of a resurgent Russian military from a hollowed-out post Soviet Union military organization to its present level of robust capabilities is documented. It says Russia has created a smaller, more mobilie and more balanced mix of forces to both protect its perceived interests and to project power in its area of influence

Evidence of this can be found in Russia’s actions including:

Seizing the Crimea Peninsula
Destabilizing eastern Ukraine
Intervening in Syria
Shaping the information environment

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the US are seen as principle threats to Russian sovereignty and ambitions. Of particular interest regarding Russian activities are its numerous cyber threats to the US and the free world. A prime example of this is the Russian “Troll Army” that tries to shape the Internet environment to Russia’s favor.

Russian military capabilities are discussed from a strategic point of view, then a section is devoted to each of its assets: Army, Navy, Rocket Forces, Cyber activities, Special Forces, Intelligence and Arms Sales.

In the post-post Cold War era, a resurgent Russia can only be ignored at a nation’s peril. Please let us know your thoughts on this matter.

(The report can be found in its entirety online by following the link below. Est. reading time: 50 minutes)

Report: Russia Military Power

Photo: Pantsir S1, Dmitry Terekhov via flickr

Winter Is On Its Way To Beijing

by David Parmer / Tokyo

November 7-22 on the old solar calendar is called “lidong” in China and is considered the official beginning of winter. Beijing’s heating season starts in mid-November and runs to mid-March. However the Beijing area reported is first light snow on October 10th in its Haitou Mountain area, several weeks before the season begins.

Temperatures in November head downward from a low of 5°C to a frosty -2°C in December to an even-more-frosty -4° in January to a still-more-frosty -2°C in February before returning to a more reasonable 5°C in March at the end of the heating season.

Dry and cold months bring their own pleasures and challenges to China’s capital. Despite the relatively short days and cold nights, residents can enjoy skiing and skating and take pleasure in eating several seasonal hot dishes and visiting temple fairs.

Every year Beijing experiences compromised air quality that is the result of a number of contributing factors including motor vehicle exhaust, the burning of coal for heating and industry, and construction dust. Add to this a dry winter climate with slight precipitation and the result is air quality issues of varying degrees for the winter months.

In 2017 China’s government has taken further steps to tackle the air-quality problem. This winter (2017-18) there will be a construction halt for the building of roads and waterworks and a ban on the demolition of old housing. All but necessary construction will be halted. It remains to be seen if these measures will produce the desired improvement in air quality.

As for the Beijing winter, it seems that the choice of attitude is up to the individual resident or visitor: it can be seen as a quiet and peaceful time to draw in and recharge, or a season to be endured until the first buds of spring appear on the capitol’s barren trees and bushes.

Photo: Snowy Gate by Jack via flickr

Photo: Beijing Hot Pot, Joanne Wan via flickr

Photo: Summer Palace in Winter michel_china via flickr

Person of Interest: US Senator Cory Booker

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Is US Senator Cory Booker “the real deal?” Well, it depends who you talk to. The senator is not without his critics, but it often looks like they have to work hard to find things to criticize him for. For instance, Booker was Mayor of Newark, New Jersey from 2006-2013. In that time he did not eliminate crime (although crime rates fell during his tenure) or put an end to poverty in the city, but then he never promised to do so. Downtown development received a boost however, but school system reforms were sluggish.

In 2013 Mayor Booker ran for the US senate and was elected as Democratic junior senator from New Jersey. Senator Booker is considered a liberal, but it seems that he is more pragmatic than dogmatic, taking positions that that can be seen at times liberal, libertarian and even pro-business. So again there has been criticism from both left and right.

Cory Booker was born on April 27, 1969 to middle-class African-American parents. He played football in high school and at Stanford University where he earned a bachelor’s degree and master’s degree. He then went on to Oxford University where he took a degree in American History. Finally, he followed this up with a law degree from Yale University.

While mayor, Booker was known as a “hands on” type guy. There are several incidents on record where he took personal action to help voters, and to sort things out. He is reported to have shoveled snow for an elderly constituent, saved someone from a burning building and opened his home to New Jersey residents after hurricane Sandy.

Cory Booker was considered for vice president by the Democrats in 2016. And it is too bad that it didn’t happen. A Biden-Booker ticket might have been able to defeat Donald Trump. Now politicians and voters are looking forward to the 2020 presidential elections.

Already many names have been put forward, but, as yet, Cory Booker is not mentioned as a front-runner or even a serious contender. Perhaps the defeated Democratic Party needs to sort itself out first. Whatever happens, Senator Booker will surely be in the 2020 mix. His is a name to remember.

Photo: Cory Booker, US Senate

Asian Waters–China’s Vital West River (Xi Jiang)

China’s busy Xi River is the third of the three great rivers that flow across China from east to west. In order they are the Yellow River, Yangtze and Xi River.The Xi is formed in Wuzhou by the joining of the Gui and Xun River.The river flows eastward and empties into the Pearl River Delta, one of the most important manufacturing centers on earth, and the site of a mega-city not seen before.

The Xi river’s 2,197 km of waterway stays unfrozen year round allowing transport to go upriver as far as Wuzhou where small river boats can take cargo further inland. At its eastern end, the Xi River supplies water to Guangxi, Guangdong and Macau. Waterways and rivers like the Xi have long been the mainstay of Chinese life and commerce and will surely do so for a long, long time to come.

Photo: Wikimedia commons

Map:lahistoriconmpas

Finland and Sweden to Join NATO – Yes? No? Maybe?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

In 2017 media interest has been constantly shifting, from the South China Sea to the Korean Peninsula, to the Middle East to the India-China border and seemingly back again in an endless loop. One vital area of global interest, the Nordic region has received little attention, perhaps because of a lack of “incidents” during the year.

But the stakes at the top of the world are real to the countries themselves, to Europe, to NATO and to Russia.

Russian actions in Ukraine and Crimea have re-energized debate in both Sweden and Finland concerning possible NATO membership. These two countries have done an intricate dance, being both non-members of NATO but cozying up to the organization. Since the 1990s Finland and Sweden have participated in the NATO Partnership for Peace, but have stayed away from applying for full membership.

Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has issued a blunt warning to Sweden that NATO membership for Sweden would be seen in a very negative light and as a threat to Russian security. It seems that Russia draws the line with Sweden and Finland although Norway, Iceland and Denmark are full NATO members.

Over the years both countries, Sweden and Finland, have walked a thin line, attending to their own national interests yet not wanting to antagonize their powerful neighbor to the east. The topic of NATO membership is likely to emerge as a key element in the 2018-19 presidential and parliamentary elections in Finland.

Polls suggest that 50% of Swedes are now against NATO membership and 55% of Finns also oppose membership.

Finally, how does the situation look from the Russian perspective? Surely viewing NATO maneuvers and cooperation with her close neighbors, and the presence of US troops almost everywhere in the region (limited in numbers though they may be) must make Russia more than a bit uneasy.

How will this situation play out in the near and mid term? Will some “incident” occur in the near future to put the Nordic region on the world’s TV screens? Please give us your thoughts on NATO and on this matter.

Photo: Finnish Soldier in Latvia, by US Army Europe via flickr

Person of Interest: UK Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn

by David Parmer / Tokyo

For 32 years Jeremy Corbyn, Labour M.P., has represented the people of his constituency, Islington North in the Parliament of the United Kingdom. And now, the day may not be far off when Mr. Corbyn will represent the whole country and the Commonwealth as its Prime Minister.

Mr. Corbyn has been head of the Labour Party since his victory in 2015, but it was Labour’s win in the June 2017 election that has brought him to center stage. The press now talks of his “rock star” quality, especially in relation to the fading Theresa May, current Prime Minister. It is said that the Tories underestimated Mr. Corbyn and his organization in the last election, a mistake that they will probably not make in the next one. But perhaps there has been a shift in British politics and now it is time for Labour, with Mr. Corbyn at its helm, to have a go at the problems, challenges and opportunities that the UK is faced with.

Mr. Corbyn’s heart is with the left, and it has been there consistently.He is no flip-flopper when it comes to issues from Cuba to Syria to the economy. He says he is not a Marxist, but a Socialist, and on a number of issues he favors:

Public ownership of certain utilities and certain means of transport
Tax relief for the middle class
A united Ireland
Non-intervention militarily in the Middle East
A revised policy towards Saudi Arabia
A negotiated settled between Madrid and Catalonia
An equitable solution to the Palestinian question
Republicanism, but not abolishing the Royal Family
A revised Cuba policy
No British military response to North Korea

The question is will the Conservative Party continue to be seen as lackluster come the next election, and will Labour’s star, and indeed Mr. Corbyn’s star continue to rise. Will there be a shift to the Left in Europe, and will the UK get to experience Socialism with British Characteristics? Please log in and let us know what you think.

Photo:Chatham House via flickr