Obama: Senkaku Islands Covered by Treaty

At the start of his Asian trip U.S. President Barack Obama clearly stated that the Senkaku Islands as they are known in Japan come under the provisions of the U.S.-Japan defense treaty. At the same time Mr. Obama stated that he hoped the issue between Japan and China over the disputed islands could be settled in an amicable manner. While Mr. Obama says no line has been drawn, what he has said means the U.S. would come to the aid of Japan in the event of any Chinese military action with regard to the Senkaku Islands. (Known as the Diaoyu in China). We now approach mid-year 2014.  The question is what will happen? How will this play out? Will tensions rise this year, will there be incidents in the disputed islands? Log in and give us your opinion. 

ASEAN Transboundry Haze Problem-Good Intentions, But Slow Progress.

indonesia_tmo_2013170.jpg

                        (NASA Satellite Image 2013)

ASEAN Environmental ministers from Singapore, Brunei, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia met in Brunei on April 2 to discuss ongoing efforts to counter transboundry haze.This was the 16th Meeting of the Sub-Regional Ministerial Steering Committee (MSC) on Transboundry Haze Pollution.The ministers noted the unfavorable conditions for 2014 brought about by below-average rainfall. This condition is likely to persist until October 2014. 

 On the positive side the ministers commended Indonesia for its efforts in implementing its Plan of Action (POA) dealing with transboundry haze. They also commended Indonesia for its efforts to expedite the process of ratification of the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundry Haze. In addition the ministers provided guidance on implementation of MSC activities to include:

  • monitoring
  • fire prevention
  • establishing a Task Force to deal with fire suppression

 ASEAN has been dealing with the Transboundry Haze problem since 1997 when it formed the Regional Haze Action Plan (RHAP) to deal with prevention, monitoring and mitigation. Malaysia was tasked with taking the lead in prevention, Indonesia with mitigation and Singapore with monitoring. The RHAP lead to the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundry Haze Pollution that was adopted in 2002 and entered into force in 2003.

 Haze is defined as dust, smoke and dry particles in the atmosphere that distort clarity and limit visibility. In quantity, haze can be considered another form of pollution which degrades air quality and can lead to serious short and long term harm for human health.

The ASEAN area’s recent problems arise from a combination of dry weather that encourages the development of wildfires, and the clearing of land for commercial purposes. Traditional slash and burn methods of agriculture also contribute to a lesser degree.

While the 16th MSC’s meeting noted ongoing progress in dealing with the problem, the most worrying part of its statement is the prognosis for the continuation of dry conditions for the year 2014 which could lead to the formulation of a myriad on hotspots, sending smoke and particles into the atmosphere and threatening the region even further.

16th MSC Cross Border Meeting Final Media Release: http://app.mewr.gov.sg/web/contents/contents.aspx?contid=1959

 

 

 

 

Report On A Trip To The Korean DMZ

RG21 Researcher and global strategist Philippe Valdois recently made a trip to the DMZ seperating North and South Korea. Here are some of his thoughts on what he experienced. ED.

No other place on Earth can compare with the Korean Demilitarized Zone or DMZ for the weight of history it carries and as a place of unresolved animosities.

 I recently was offered the chance to visit part of the long gone village of Panmunjom, now the Joint Security Area, as a guest of the United Nations Command. Situated inside the DMZ, a strip of land 4 km wide and 250 km long separating North and South Korea, it has been the site of all negotiations between the 2 countries since the signing of the Armistice Agreement, on July 27, 1953, when each side agreed to move back their troops back 2,000 meters from the front line. It is also the most militarized border in the world. The line running in the center of the DMZ, the Military Demarcation Line, also goes through Panmunjom and in particular down the middle of the conference tables inside the buildings. When the main conference building is unoccupied, visitors have the possibility to stand on the North-Korean side of the table. Before that they have to be briefed and to sign a Visitors Declaration (UNC REG 551-5) warning that “The visit to the Joint Security Area at Panmunjom will entail entry into a hostile area and possibility of injury or death as a direct result of enemy action.”

 This is not in fact a trivial matter. Since the mid-60s’, many incidents have occurred in the DMZ resulting in deaths, including some inside the JSA.  The most famous one is the so-called axe murder incident, in 1976, when North Korean soldiers attacked members of a work party trimming a tree blocking the line of sight from a checkpoint situated at the entrance of the Bridge of No Return (where the return of prisoners of war had taken place decades before). Two unarmed US officers were murdered and the incident was filmed. Now a sobering monument marks the site where the tree originally stood.

The second major incident happened in 1984 when a Soviet defector ran across the MDL. Four people were killed in the resulting exchange of fire.

 It is however necessary to note than if, for the most part, incursions by the North-Korean agents across the DMZ, and the discovery of four tunnels having certainly be dug by North Korea to facilitate an invasion, have made the news, the North had also to contend with a number of raids and sabotage operations by South-Korean forces. Partly declassified documents such as this one http://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve12/d286 show that such actions have taken place. Those operations, few of them having been made public, could only antagonize an already paranoiac regime.

 I came out of this visit and another to the War Memorial of Korea, convinced that it might take decades for trust to be built between the two sides. Manufactured or not, fear is a day-to-day reality for the people of South Korea. It is evident that with the present regime in North-Korea, peace and unification will not happen, but it is also clear that from a geopolitical perspective, support to a regime which has done so little for its people can only make this situation worse and encourage North-Korea to isolate itself.

 

Notes On A Visit To China (3)

Bill Lee

 From March 25 to 30, I made another short visit to China — this time to Shenyang in northeastern China and Beijing. The icy relations between Japan and South Korea began to thaw slightly when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korean President Park Geun-hye met together with President Barack Obama in Geneva at the Nuclear Security Summit at his urging. Prime Minister Abe made a statesmanlike gesture by greeting President Park in Korean, but Abe still sends mixed signals on the sex slave and other issues, and Park appears intent on proving to her constituency in South Korea that she is not pro-Japan, as her father was. There was also a resumption of official talks between Japan and North Korea after a long hiatus. President Xi Jinping was in Europe for a grand tour, grabbing headlines in the China media for enhancing China’s global presence, while at home unprecedented corruption cases were building against very high-level former and current Chinese party officials.

                                                                          Shenyang

The infamous Mukden Incident, when the Japanese Imperial Army allegedly blew up part of a railway as a pretext for invading Manchuria, occurred near Shenyang, then called Mukden. A large memorial marks the spot, with the date of the Incident, September 18, 1931, etched deeply and dramatically in the memorial wall. In Shenyang last month, Japanese and North Korean officials met to discuss the abduction issue, which Japan keenly wishes to resolve, but the negotiations are seen as creating a possible rift between Japan and its partner countries the United States and South Korea. Shenyang is also fairly close to North Korea, and a noticeable Korean presence exists in the city. For many observers of North Korea, a Hamletian dilemma grips them as they question whether to engage or not to engage the DPRK. The official US line is that North Korea should not be engaged, considering their supposed reneging on past agreements that has made the United States conclude that it “would not buy this horse for a third time” (then Defense Secretary Robert Gates), unless they agree to negotiate an end to their nuclear program. In an article in NK News, B.R. Meyers says, “No tour group [to Pyongyang] is complete without at least one suck-up.” A suck-up is one who bows to the statue of Kim Il Sung, as used to be required a number of years ago, apologizes for US actions against the DPRK, or otherwise tries to engage North Korea. In the US State Department, being labeled an “engager” of the DPRK is probably a kiss-of-death career-wise. Meyers likens engagers to the foreign visitors to the 1936 Berlin Olympics who went home “with a better view of Hitler than before,” or as Neville Chamberlains. Engagement is seen as propping up the status quo; isolation or boycotts are the answer. Certainly boycotting South Africa helped to dismantle apartheid, but the problem is that North Korea is already isolated; further isolating it will likely have no effect if China continues its infusions of aid.

 

Articulate North Koreans can make a strong case for engagement. Some “officials” can become quite expansive, but not unguarded, in expressing themselves, especially if they feel some bond of trust with their interlocutors. When asked about Dennis Rodman’s recent visit to the DPRK, one official said, with some embarrassment, “Anyway, he is gone and that is over.” On the current situation in the DPRK, one immediately said that they had “gotten rid of” Jang Song Thaek because he had “mismanaged” the economy, only wanting to build hotel resorts, and promote himself. One wonders how closely associated Jang was with the newly built luxury ski resort in North Korea. Did sour business disputes precipitate Jang’s fall, as the main South Korean intelligence agency claims?  Jang wanted to open up the country to gain foreign currency, and a ski resort would fit that bill. But on the other hand, Kim Jong Un was seen touring the facility, clearly enjoying himself and deeming it “at the center of the world’s attention.” One can only speculate; that is the nature of the game.

 North Koreans are also grateful to George W. Bush. Because of his administration’s veiled threat to destroy North Korea, the North Koreans felt justified in developing their nuclear weapons for protection. They are more ambivalent about somebody like Bill Clinton. North Korea also believes the United States is using North Korea as the “bad boy” in Asia to explain its presence there and “justify its arms buildup.” Apparently, North Korea would negotiate with the United States on two conditions: the signing of a peace treaty and compensation to North Korea for “Cold War debts.” One North Korean said, perhaps straining credulity, that North Korea “wants to become like Switzerland” and could become a buffer between the United States and China. Could North Korea become America’s friend? Why not, say the North Koreans. The United States now has friendly relations with Vietnam, its former enemy (not to mention Japan). A final bit of North Korean Yin/Yang wisdom: “Don’t make friends; recognize them,” and “Never accept anything; but don’t refuse anything.”

 We saw some main must-see sights in Shenyang. The former residence of Zhang Zuolin and Zhang Xueliang is an interesting compound filled with period receptions rooms, offices, and houses and bedrooms for the various wives of the two warlords of Manchuria. Zhang Zuolin, the father, was assassinated by the Japanese to allow his then opium-addicted son, Xueliang, to take power because they thought he would be more malleable. But that didn’t turn out to be the case as Xueliang transformed himself into a fervent patriot, and even kidnapped Chiang Kai-shek in 1936 — the Xian Incident — to get him to join forces with the Communists to drive out the Japanese invaders. He was later exiled to Taiwan and ended up in Honolulu, where he lived to 100. Legend has it that Xueliang flipped coins, which are lovingly preserved, to decide whether to assassinate two officials considered too pro-Japan. The two officials lost the toss.

 In Shenyang, one must of course visit the Imperial Palace, a vast complex and the only existing royal palace in China other than the Forbidden City. Like the palace complex in Beijing, the Shenyang Imperial Palace is meant to impress, which it grandly does with its sweeping spaces, high walls, and imposing buildings. Shenyang’s air was quite polluted so it was a welcome respite to go to Beiling Park, where the Zhaoling Tomb is located. The Tomb is a vast area, divided into three parts, and filled with pine trees, a moat, gates, and pavilions, it offers a tranquil refuge from the city. At the northern end of the park is the Underground Palace, the tomb of the Emperor and his wife, which sits under the Treasure Top, a man-made hill, which one walks around along the “crescent” path. Of discordant interest was the presence of two cosplay girls, in full anime regalia, being photographed by a pack of men with expensive cameras.


RG21-Shenyang.jpg           Treasure Top at the Zhaoling Tomb. Note the solitary tree at the top of the mound.


 Food in northeastern China is hearty, with meat stews, pork “tempura” – razor-thin slices of pork fried in batter — and the delectable pan-fried crepes stuffed with Chinese chives and shredded shrimp.

Going to Beijing by high-speed train was worthwhile, if nothing more than to compare the ride with the journey from Beijing to Shanghai. The train for the latter trip is usually filled with businesspeople, who tend to be quieter, thinking about their business deals. But the trip from Shenyang appears to bring the northerners to Beijing, which makes for a more raucous and vivid journey. One tip: buy a box lunch in the dining car early-on because they sell out fast and only frozen lunches are left.

 Among other places in Beijing, we walked around the campus of Renmin University, where it was interesting to see the students reciting English out-loud repeatedly, which is why Chinese students are better than Japanese students at English, ate chocolate at Godiva’s Beijing flagship store, enjoyed a massage with a young woman stepping on your back, and strolled around the Houhai district, where a lot of bars — some featuring eye-catching pole dancers near the entrance to draw you in — cafes, and “live” houses are located.

 I also realized why so many Chinese people want to shop in Japan, the States, or Europe. It’s not because the goods are necessarily better there; they’re cheaper. I wanted to buy some carry-on luggage, thinking it might be cheaper, but found that in the up-scale department stores, the luggage was about three times more expensive than what I could get in the US, granted, though, it was better quality. Income disparities notwithstanding, it’s great to be the second biggest economy in the world.

                                                                     RG21-Amy-1.jpg

                                                              ShaoMing Ou, RG21 Publisher

Is e-commerce for you, or not?

These days a large portion of what is bought and sold all over the globe is done electronically. While so-called bricks and mortar stores probably will not disappear completely, more and more of their business is lost to online e-commerce. Shopping online is clearly here to stay. But is it for you? Many people prefer to shop (at least initially) in a traditional store, to see and feel the goods and to interact with the seller. Others are quite content to shop and pay electronically. So what is your opinion? Which do you prefer, shopping online, or shopping in person? Or both? Please post your comments once you have logged in.

 

 

China Internet: Who’s On First?

0013729e4ad909f3586d32.jpg                          ( Photo: China Daily)

                             by David Parmer

An old expression from American baseball is: You can’t tell the players without a scorecard.This means you can’t understand a situation until you have some concrete information. This concept clearly applies to the Internet in China. It is hard to easily describe the vibrancy, the fluidity, the size and scope of China’s Internet. Not only are there a multitude of players, but positions are always changing. Reports rate the players in search, e-commerce or social media, but just a few months later, the data is obsolete. Companies jockey for position, and players rise and fall in ranking. Try to find out who has the biggest market share in the search category, for example, and you will probably come up with Baidu, but then the second to fifth tier search companies seem to be always changing in terms of rank and users depending on who is reporting, and who is counting. The Chinese Internet has about 591 million users, this seems to be the agreed-upon figure, after that all bets are off.

 Search

Baidu        50% to 60%

Qihu (360) 20% to 25%

Sogu         10% to 12%

Google      1.3% to 1.6%

In March 2014 a government backed search engine ChinaSo was launched with the backing of Xinhua and China Mobile. Most analysts have low expectations for this new service.

 e-Commerce

Chinese e-commerce is a two- tier system with B2C (Business to Customer) and C2C (Customer to Customer) models in place. The leaders are:

 B2C

TMall (Alibaba)      50%

Jindong (Tencent)  17%

 C2C

Taobao (Alibaba)

PaiPai   (Tencent)

 Figures for B2C sales were $25.6 billion, and a whopping $71 billion for C2C. Of interest in the e-commerce segment is a reported migration of customers from C2C digital market places to B2C sites. Reasons given are that customers are tired of shoddy goods and are looking to more vendor reliability.

Social Media

In social media the Alibaba vs Tencent model continues. eModeration reports that 91% of Chinese Internet users have a social media account. The numbers for early 2014 look like this:

 QZone (Tencent)               712M users

Tencent Weibo                  507 M users

Sina Weibo                        500 M users

We Chat (QQ)                   300 M users

Pengyou                            259 M users

As mid-year 2014 approaches, it looks like his year will be another dynamic year for China’s Internet. And with the economy officially shifting to a domestic consumption model, the non-stop development, expansion and dynamism of China’s Internet can only continue to grow.

 (Data: eModeration/Tech in Asia)

 

 

 

Rising Tensions In East Asia

Tensions continue to rise in East Asia. Japan and China spar over the Senkaku/Diaoyu issue. Korea and Japan still mull historical issues and North Korea continues to be unpredictable. The Philippines and China are in a dispute over territorial waters. And Taiwan buys more arms from the U.S. while experiencing domestic unrest. At a global security conference on Feb. 2, 2014, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that East Asia is like 19th century Europe. He said  “Between Japan and China, the issue for the rest of us is that neither side be tempted to rely on force to settle the issue.” The Wall Street Journal reported that a top U.S. official, Admiral Harry B. Harris Jr. told a naval conference in Australia on April 9, that “There’s both growing uncertainty in the region and increasing tensions–a witches’ brew, if you will, for miscalculation,” So what will happen? Will miscalculations lead to more than a war of words? Can we expect a genuinely “hot” incident this year? Give us your thoughts on this matter.

U.S. China Defense Talks Feature Some Blunt Words

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                        (Photo: U.S. Dept. of Def.)

                              by David Parmer

For many Americans, a trip to China is a once in a lifetime dream. They get to see Beijing, tour the Forbidden City, meet Chinese people, soak in the culture and have some real Chinese food. And even on a business trip it is possible to squeeze in some of these things. But for U.S. Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel, China was no dream vacation this April. In fact it was not even a great business trip.

 On April 7, the Secretary landed in Qingdao on China’s eastern coast following a meeting with ASEAN defense ministers in Hawaii and a drop-in at Japan. As the first event of his visit, he toured China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, where he was briefed and met with crew members. Hagel was the first foreign dignitary to be accorded this honor. China presented this as a show of transparency. From here things became less cordial.

 On April 8, Hagel met with Fan Changlong, Vice Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, who told him bluntly that China was dissatisfied with remarks he made at the ASEAN meeting and while in Japan. Later in the same day China’s Minister of Defense and the U.S. Secretary of Defense held a joint press conference at Defense Headquarters in Beijing, where both traded barbs. The New York Times reported that General Chang said “China has indisputable sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands.” He also boldly asserted: “The Chinese military can assemble as soon as summoned, fight any battle and win.” On the status of U.S. allies, Secretary Hagel stated, “The Philippines and Japan are longtime allies of the United States.” “We have mutual self-defense treaties with both of these countries.”

 On April 9, Secretary Hagel concluded his visit by meeting with China’s president, XiJinping in Beijing. It was reported that in the meeting he asked for China’s cooperation in containing North Korea. President Xi noted that Hagel’s meeting would lead to better military-to-military understanding. On April 10, Secretary Hagel was off to Mongolia for the last stop on his Asian tour. As for his China visit, it might have been a bit rough business-wise, but he did get to visit the Forbidden City.

 

 

 

A New Century, A New Democracy?

The beginning of the 21st century seems to be bringing forth a new type of democracy spawned by technology and the social media. Mass protests are easy to organize, and tens of thousands of people can be mobilized in a relatively short period to support or oppose some issue or cause. Except in what is know as direct democracy, where the people exercise power directly, most democracies have representatives of the people who following their wishes enact law and public policy. In the 21st century we have seen more and more action by citizens to protest the behavior of their leaders or government. This has often lead to bloody confrontation and even to the overthrow of certain governments. In many of the cases worldwide, citizens ignore their elected representatives and take to the streets.But what form of government is this? Is this democracy or anarchy? What do you think? Where do citizen protests end? How should democracy function in the 21st century, and is there anything better available? Please post you thoughts and comments.  

Taiwan: Push Comes To Shove on Trade Agreement

Taiwan Protest.jpg(Photo: Facebook Sunflower Student Movement)

                 by David Parmer

 Protest, confusion, disagreement and stalemate mark Taiwan’s political scene this week. Politics in Taiwan has long been a tug-of-war between the ruling Koumintang (KMT) and opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) but it now looks like the student-civic group coalition known as the Sunflower Student Movement may become a permanent third force in the island nation’s political scene.

 Trouble began on March 17, when the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) was voted upon and passed by the KMT majority without a clause-by-clause review. Opponents claim the bill was rammed through in record time using a “black box” maneuver. They objected to the bill because they believe that it gives the PRC more and undue influence on the Taiwan economy, and at the same time will negatively impact Taiwan jobs.

What seemed to be a “done deal” quickly backfired. On March 18, students occupied the main chamber of the Legislative Yuan. On March 23, they briefly occupied the Executive Yuan, but were forcibly ejected by riot police with what some claimed was excessive force. Student demands were laid out by protest leader Lin Fei-fan on March 30. These include:

  • Sending back the Cross Straits Trade Service Agreement
  • Creating a cross straits monitoring act
  • Convening a citizens’ constitutional assembly
  • Calling on all legislators to stand by the people

 The DPP sided with the students stating that the agreement will make Taiwan more dependent on the PRC, is not transparent and, as mentioned, was rushed through without proper oversight. According to a Taipei Times report on April 2, 2014, the DPP recommended 24 items including banking, printing and publishing be reconsidered. They called for much greater scrutiny and transparency.

 President Ma Ying-jeou , in order to resolve the standoff, agreed to meet the student leaders without condition, but his offer was rebuffed. He then proposed a national affairs conference on economics and trade to address this issue. On April 3, Bloomberg reported that Taiwan’s cabinet had approved a bill to monitor agreements with the PRC in hopes of ending the impasse. Protest leader Lin Fei-fan was quoted as saying the bill will not satisfy student demands. The KMT seems determined to stay the course and only make limited concessions, while the Sunflower movement coalition shows no signs of going away anytime soon. 

 It seems 21st century politics, characterized by the active participation of young people and the use of social media, has come to Taiwan. What was  until very recently a two-party game, with the KMT moving toward the PRC economically and the DPP resisting, now has a new player. And if the Sunflower movement does morph into a new political force, it will surely have its own agenda and its own take on the future of cross strait trade and economic relations.

 Wall Street Journal analysis of standoff results: http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/04/11/taiwan-tallies-winners-and-losers-after-political-standoff/