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by David Parmer
Cuba’s long-serving president and revolutionary, Fidel Castro Ruz passed into history on November 25, 2016. Castro had been frail and in poor health, yet his death sent ripples around the world.
What many might have been expected at one time, i.e. Castro’s passing and the improving of relations with the US may or may not happen. Or if it happens, it will happen on Cuba’s terms. One fact that militates against this scenario is the incoming Trump administration that promises to be both conservative and hardline toward America’s “enemies.”
Many Americans dream of reform and opening up in Cuba brought about by trade and tourism. However, it would be a mistake to take the passing of Castro as the end of the Cuban Revolution. Cubans have withstood the US blockade for decades, and there are no signs that they are about to buckle simply Fidel Castro is no more.
Then there is China–Cuba’s #2 trading partner after Venezuela. Reuters reported on September 24, 2016 that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and visited the country, and he and Raul Castro had overseen the signing of 30 economic agreements to cover such areas as:
- Science
- Environment
- Industry
- Energy
- Public Health
- Agriculture
Also of interest was a Wall Street Journal article of March 18, 2016 that reported that Chinese electronics giant Huawei was involved in constructing Cuba’s Wi-Fi infrastructure. There has been no mention of a Chinese “pivot toward South America,” yet China is making some moves in that direction. And Cuba is a logical starting point.
Change will come to Cuba, particularly after Raul Castro relinquishes power in 2018 and elections take place in February of that year. But the Cuban Revolution will continue, and should the new US administration take an harsh or tough stance on Cuba, the Cubans will have not only the experience to deal with it, but there will also be many others who are prepared to do business with them, especially China.
Photo: lezumbalaberenjena via flickr