Taiwan DPP Suffers Stunning “Midterms” Loss.

                                    by David Parmer / Tokyo

Taiwan voters delivered a stunning defeat to the island’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party on November 24. The local elections could be considered much like the US midterm elections, that is, a referendum on the ruling party; in the US the Republicans and in Taiwan the DPP.

According to a Channel News Asia report, the KMT opposition party won 15 of 22 local seats, including those in the traditional DPP strongholds of Kaohsiung and Taichung.

As a result of the defeat Tsai Ing-wen resigned as DPP party chair but will remain president of Taiwan for another two years. Analysts say the turnaround was a result of voter displeasure with Tsai’s government performance particularly on domestic reforms and relations with the PRC.

 In addition to electing KMT candidates, voters also rejected same-sex marriage and changing Taiwan’s designated Olympics name of Chinese Taipei. This too, in addition to the overall results, was taken as a positive sign by the Beijing government.

What is very interesting about these election results is how they reveal the “temperature tolerance” of the Taiwan electorate. If the political temperature gets too “warm” vis-a-vis Beijing the voters don’t like it. They voted out the KMT in 2016 largely on the perception that the government was getting too close to Beijing.  However, it also seems that if the political temperature becomes too “cool” i.e. distance from Beijing becomes too great, they adjust the temperature by voting in the opposition as we have just seen on Nov.24, 2018.

The question now is how will President Tsai govern for the next two years in the light of this stinging defeat by the KMT? Another question is how this will affect Taiwan’s increasingly warming relations with the United States and the Trump administration.

With the resurgence of the KMT it is likely that we will also see the re-emergence of former president Ma Ying-jeou and the possibility that he will again run for office in 2020.

In the short term will relations with Beijing improve? Will Tsai Ing-wen be unable to govern effectively? What will happen to Taiwan-American relations?

Please let us know your thoughts on these questions

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Photo: CSIS via flickr

Person of Interest: John Bolton

                            by David Parmer / Tokyo

In selecting John R. Bolton as his third National Security Advisor, it looks like Donald Trump has finally gotten what he both wants and needs: a political soul-mate with a world view so close to his own as to be almost indistinguishable. After going through two military men, Trump has finally found not just a conservative, but his kind of conservative, in Bolton.

Trump’s National Security Advisor is no “yes man” to Trump. He doesn’t have to be. Apparently the only thing that they would disagree on would be Bolton’s moustache, otherwise it seems that, on policy, they could finish each other’s sentences. And if Bolton harbors any resentment about being third choice, he hasn’t shown it.

Bolton has a fine resume; an impressive record of government service and private employment. Since he graduated from Yale University with a BA and JD in 1974, he has been on a slow but steady upward trajectory. His early career saw him hold a couple Assistant Secretary of State Jobs and a couple of Assistant Attorney General jobs. For a brief period in 2005-2006 he was ambassador to the United Nations on a temporary basis, but withdrew before being confirmed by congress. Bolton has also worked in the private sector in a law firm, worked as a commentator on Mr. Trump’s favorite conservative network, FOX, and been involved with the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank.

Mr. Bolton, like his boss, is a unilateralist. For him, like Trump, “America First” is the rallying cry and fundamental proposition of his politics and worldview. Bolton has been a harsh critic of the JCPOA or “Iran Deal” signed by the US, Russia, China, the UK, Germany, France, and the EU. His language echoes Trump’s when he describes it as a monumental bad deal. Bolton is also a strong critic of North Korea, but has dialed back his rhetoric now that Mr. Trump has been engaging with DPRK Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un. Mr. Bolton has also weighed in on Taiwan, suggesting that the US might even station troops there and, in the process, displaying an abysmal lack of understanding of both the PRC’s history and of its resolve regarding Taiwan.

Bolton has threatened sanctions against the International Criminal Court of Justice if any indictments are handed down against US parties, and has threatened Iran as well. On September 26, 2018, TIME magazine quoted Bolton at the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) summit saying:

“If you cross us, our allies, or our partners; if you harm our

citizens; if you continue to lie, cheat, and deceive, yes, there will

indeed be hell to pay….. “Let my message today be clear: We are

watching, and we will come after you.”

 And to cap off Bolton’s hard line (which is, of course, Trump’s hard line) he has, in effect, reset the tone of America’s Latin America policy by branding Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua a “Troika of Tyranny.” In the speech delivered at Miami Dade Freedom Tower November 1, 2018 he announced sanctions would be used to bring these countries into line with the current administration’s view of proper international behavior.

It is now the end of November 2018, and just over four weeks from now, in January 2019, a Democrat-controlled House of Representatives will be sworn in. Things will surely change, and in times to come, people may look back and consider this period the high-water mark of Trumpism and Trumpian politics. Donald Trump and John Bolton’s worldview of politics and human life will soon be consigned to the trash bin of history–where it belongs.

Photo: Greg Skidmore via flickr

China and Russia Work To Preserve Siberian Tiger.

                                 by David Parmer / Tokyo

These days if you read the papers or watch TV or Internet news it may take you a while to find a positive story or one that looks like it may have a happy ending. This is particularly true with regard to the state of the planet that we all inhabit. So it is indeed encouraging to find that there is a lot of cautious good news about the preservation of the Siberian or Amur tiger population.

The panthera tigrisis found only in the Russian Far East, China and Korea. The species came very close to extinction in the 1940s with the number of animals down to 40. Since WWII tiger numbers have been on the increase, and there are now an estimated 450-500 animals roaming the wild north of Russia, China and Korea.

Russia was first to protect the species in the 1980s, and the plight of the Siberian tiger has come to the attention of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin himself. Protection is important because the animals are threatened by:

  • Poachers
  • Loss of forest land
  • Human trespass
  • Lack of prey
  • Loss of home range

International organizations like the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) are working to support efforts to save the Siberian tiger. One such effort is the Sikhote-Alin Biosphere by WCS and the adopt-a-tiger program by the WWF.

Efforts are now being made to:

  • Keep population numbers up
  • Protect tiger ranges
  • Promote increase of tiger prey
  • Encourage legislation to protect the species
  • Educate the public on the various tiger programs
  • Other efforts include stiff penalties for poaching, banning logging, and converting hunters and poachers into forest rangers.

Not only in Russia, but also in China tiger preservation has become a priority. In 2013 President Xi Jinping announced the plan to develop a national park system. The system will be rolled out in 2020. A major piece of this plan is a 15,000 kmpark in the Jilin-Heilongjiang region that will be 60% larger than the US Yellowstone Park and will be home to the Siberian tiger. Much has to be done in the areas slated to become national parks including relocating some residents, finding work for them and putting an end to logging.

While all is not perfect, the Siberian tiger is receiving needed attention from government, the scientific community, and NGOs. In the foreseeable future, Siberian tiger populations may reach to several hundred of these magnificent animals. If you are interested in helping in this program you can contact the organizations listed below.

WWF Amur Tiger: https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/amur-tiger

WCS Siberian Tiger Project: https://russia.wcs.org/en-us/Projects/Siberian-Tiger-Project.aspx

 

 

 

Iran Oil Exports–VS–New American Sanctions.

                  by David Parmer / Tokyo

US Sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran will “snap back” on November 5, 2018. The ailing Iran economy is expected to be heavily impacted, and Iranians are already protesting the move. US President Donald Trump used his executive powers to pull the US out of the JCPOA or “Iran nuclear deal” because he considered it a bad deal, and that the funds released by the lifting of sanctions would be used to fund Iran’s military activity in the region. The administration also felt that the deal itself was really not “comprehensive” because it did not include Iran’s missile development program although that program was not part of the 2015 agreement.

The other parties to the JCPOA including the EU, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China have been working to try to save the deal despite the withdrawal of the United States. This has generally been tough going since global businesses mainly use US dollars and many European companies fear sanctions against themselves and their US operations. This has caused many countries to pull out of agreements that were just getting going after the lifting of sanctions in 2015.

In an effort to save the JCPOA, the Europeans are in a process of setting up a Special Purpose Vehicle to allow their companies to continue to trade with Iran. This entity would not be a bank, and would not use US dollars. Another idea is to use barter for goods, a method that will be employed in “humanitarian” exceptions to the sanctions. Another work-around would be to use currencies other than US dollars for trade.

In an opinion piece in the Financial Times published on Nov. 4, 2018, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin used strong language to warn those who would try to dodge or subvert sanctions:

We will not tolerate banks companies or other entities that seek to circumvent our sanctions. We will view them as complicit in funding Iran’s malign ambitions.”

The US is clearly waging economic warfare on the Islamic Republic. The rationale is that this will bring about:

  • Some kind of regime change due to popular uprising
  •  Cessation of military actions in Iran’s neighborhood
  • A change in Iran’s nuclear and missile programs
  •  A return by Iran to the negotiating table to discuss the above

It does not take a lot of forethought to see that this will not happen. Iran has survived sanctions before, and just as in the case of US sanctions on Cuba, the sanctions only rally the people to the side of the government, and the country survives in an atmosphere of depravation and self-reliance.

Already the sanctions are somewhat porous in that the US will give 8 countries waivers to continue to import Iranian oil for the short term.

Finally, many consider that US actions in pulling out and reposing sanctions has seriously damaged US credibility and prestige. In short: the US cannot be trusted to honor its word given in an internationally sanction treaty.

Time will tell what happens with Iran-US relations, and with US-European relations that appear to be rapidly cooling. Please let us know your thoughts on this issue.

Photo:  Kharg Island by alisamii via flickr

NORDEFCO Adapts to a Changing Northern Defense Environment.

                             by David Parmer / Tokyo

“ The main aim and purpose of the Nordic Defence Cooperation (NORDEFCO) is to strengthen the participating nations´national defence, explore common synergies and facilitate efficient common solutions. ” (NORDEFCO website).

While the South China Sea, the overall Indo-Pacific area, and the Persian Gulf draw almost daily media attention, observers of geo-politics would be well advised to keep an eye on the Baltic region and the Nordic countries that border it. The Baltic area lacks the overt tension of the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait but there is now a quiet reshuffle going on in response to the changing local and world situation vis-a-vis an emergent Russia projecting power both locally and globally.

 Of the 5 Nordics, traditionally Sweden and Finland have maintained official neutrality while Denmark and Norway have joined NATO. Starting in 2009 these five countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden) formed Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO) to foster military and political cooperation in areas such as:

  • Cost sharing
  • Joint solutions
  • Joint actions

NORDEFCO states that it is neither a military alliance nor a command structure. Over the years the organization has had a number of successes, particularly in the area of training. Joint procurement has taken the slow road due to the various political and military considerations of the members. Despte this, joint procurement of a common combat uniform is now underway. For the future the organization is focusing on better communications among members and landing rights for unarmed military aircraft of member countries.

Of great concern to the Nordic countries is Russia’s willingness to exert its military power as seen in the takeover of Crimea and its proxy war in Ukraine. Add to this Russia’s continuing support of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. It is clear that if Russia has the will, it can project force in a robust and effective manner when it sees its national interest at risk or when it sees such action as supporting its long-term national interest.

Considering this, many observers feel that Sweden and Finland though not NATO members might be now considering full membership in the organization.

A precursor to this, or a sign pointing in that direction might be the hosting and participation in NATO’s biggest military exercise in recent history: Trident Juncture 18.

Scheduled to be held from 25 October to 7 November 2018, Trident Juncture 18 will involve some 50,000 participants from 31 NATO nations and NATO partner countries. Action will take place in central and eastern Norway, but also in Sweden, Finland and Iceland. The exercise can be seen as a NATO response to an “Article 5” situation where a NATO member is attacked and the organization must respond in force and in a timely manner. While no “enemy” is specified for the exercise, it is clear that Russia is seen as the potential aggressor.

The willingness to participate in this exercise by Sweden and Finland and the permission to use their territory for positioning and moving forces can be interpreted as another sign of the changing geo-political climate at the top of the world. It can also be seen that while NORDEFCO is working, the parties concerned are now considering other options for their military and political positions.

Photo: US 7th Army (Danish Soldier) via flickr

Viet Nam Gets First Female President.

Viet Nam has gotten its first female president, even if it is only for a short while. 61-year old Dang Thi Ngoc Thin, Vice President of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam became acting president on the death of President Tran Dai Quang on September 21, 2018.

Thin, a long-time member of the Communist Party of Viet Nam (CPV) is a member of the party central committee, a deputy chief of the party central office and former VP of the Viet Nam Women’s Union. She was elected vice president on April 8, 2016 with 91% of the vote.

Viet Nam’s National Assembly will meet on October 22, and in all likelihood confirm 74-year-old Nguyen Phu Trong, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Viet Nam as the country’s next president.

It now looks as if Trong will hold both the office of president and his present post. This is not without precedent, but unusual of late. This would mean that Trong would hold two of the four top jobs in Viet Nam’s communist government.

Photo: VOV

US Vice-President Has Strong Words For China.

                                    by David Parmer / Tokyo

“President Trump’s leadership is working; and China wants a different American President.” (US Vice-President Mike Pence, Oct. 4, 2018)

On October 4, 2018 US Vice President Mike Pence made a speech before the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. In a 40-minute presentation, Mr. Pence laid out the Trump administration’s perception of US-China relations.

The speech is a list of complaints about and accusations against Chinese policy both domestically and internationally, but particularly as with regard to the United States. The underlying theme in Pence’s speech is the oft-repeated underlying theme of Trump’s view on international politics, treaties and agreements: that the United States is being treated unfairly by allies and rivals alike, and it is time for this to stop. Vice-President Pence also dragged out the “China is a currency manipulator” theme which has been around in Trumpworld since before the 2016 election.

Mr. Pence’s speech was not ill-informed on historical matters; clearly his “China experts” have had their input into the speech. This, however, is just decoration for the Trumpian policy agenda and worldview that it puts forth in every paragraph.

China did not react well to Mr. Pence’s speech. On October 5, one day after the speech the spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hua Chunying, made a forceful comeback, saying in part:

“The relevant speech made unwarranted accusations against China’s domestic and foreign policies and slandered China by claiming that China meddles in US internal affairs and elections. This is nothing but speaking on hearsay evidence, confusing right and wrong and creating something out of thin air. The Chinese side is firmly opposed to it.”

 It is worth taking the time  (about 12 minutes) to read Mr. Pence’s speech for yourself. We include it here in its entirity. Please let us know what you think about the points covered in the speech.

_______________________________________________________

Remarks by Vice President Pence on the Administration’s Policy Toward China

 October 4, 2018

The Hudson Institute

Washington, D.C.

11:07 A.M. EDT

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Thank you, Ken, for that kind introduction. To the Members of the Board of Trustees, to Dr. Michael Pillsbury, to our distinguished guests, and to all of you who, true to your mission in this place, “think about the future in unconventional ways” –- it is an honor to be back at the Hudson Institute.

For more than a half a century, this Institute has dedicated itself to “advancing global security, prosperity, and freedom.” And while Hudson’s hometowns have changed over the years, one thing has been constant: You have always advanced that vital truth, that American leadership lights the way.

And today, speaking of leadership, allow me to begin by bringing greetings from a great champion of American leadership at home and abroad –- I bring greetings from the 45th President of the United States of America, President Donald Trump. (Applause.)

From early in this administration, President Trump has made our relationship with China and President Xi a priority. On April 6th of last year, President Trump welcomed President Xi to Mar-a-Lago. On November 8th of last year, President Trump traveled to Beijing, where China’s leader welcomed him warmly.

Over the course of the past two years, our President has forged a strong personal relationship with the President of the People’s Republic of China, and they’ve worked closely on issues of common interest, most importantly the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

But I come before you today because the American people deserve to know that, as we speak, Beijing is employing a whole-of-government approach, using political, economic, and military tools, as well as propaganda, to advance its influence and benefit its interests in the United States.

China is also applying this power in more proactive ways than ever before, to exert influence and interfere in the domestic policy and politics of this country.

Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States has taken decisive action to respond to China with American action, applying the principles and the policies long advocated in these halls.

In our National Security Strategy that the President Trump released last December, he described a new era of “great power competition.” Foreign nations have begun to, as we wrote, “reassert their influence regionally and globally,” and they are “contesting [America’s] geopolitical advantages and trying [in essence] to change the international order in their favor.”

In this strategy, President Trump made clear that the United States of America has adopted a new approach to China. We seek a relationship grounded in fairness, reciprocity, and respect for sovereignty, and we have taken strong and swift action to achieve that goal.

As the President said last year on his visit to China, in his words, “we have an opportunity to strengthen the relationship between our two countries and improve the lives of our citizens.” Our vision of the future is built on the best parts of our past, when America and China reached out to one another in a spirit of openness and friendship.

When our young nation went searching in the wake of the Revolutionary War for new markets for our exports, the Chinese people welcomed American traders laden with ginseng and fur.

When China suffered through indignities and exploitations during her so-called “Century of Humiliation,” America refused to join in, and advocated the “Open Door” policy, so that we could have freer trade with China, and preserve their sovereignty.

When American missionaries brought the good news to China’s shores, they were moved by the rich culture of an ancient and vibrant people. And not only did they spread their faith, but those same missionaries founded some of China’s first and finest universities.

When the Second World War arose, we stood together as allies in the fight against imperialism. And in that war’s aftermath, America ensured that China became a charter member of the United Nations, and a great shaper of the post-war world.

But soon after it took power in 1949, the Chinese Communist Party began to pursue authoritarian expansionism. It is remarkable to think that only five years after our nations had fought together, we fought each other in the mountains and valleys of the Korean Peninsula. My own father saw combat on that frontier of freedom.

But not even the brutal Korean War could diminish our mutual desire to restore the ties that for so long had bound our peoples together. China’s estrangement from the United States ended in 1972, and, soon after, we re-established diplomatic relations and began to open our economies to one another, and American universities began training a new generation of Chinese engineers, business leaders, scholars, and officials.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, we assumed that a free China was inevitable. Heady with optimism at the turn of the 21st Century, America agreed to give Beijing open access to our economy, and we brought China into the World Trade Organization.

Previous administrations made this choice in the hope that freedom in China would expand in all of its forms -– not just economically, but politically, with a newfound respect for classical liberal principles, private property, personal liberty, religious freedom — the entire family of human rights. But that hope has gone unfulfilled.

The dream of freedom remains distant for the Chinese people. And while Beijing still pays lip service to “reform and opening,” Deng Xiaoping’s famous policy now rings hollow.

Over the past 17 years, China’s GDP has grown nine-fold; it’s become the second-largest economy in the world. Much of this success was driven by American investment in China. And the Chinese Communist Party has also used an arsenal of policies inconsistent with free and fair trade, including tariffs, quotas, currency manipulation, forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and industrial subsidies that are handed out like candy to foreign investment. These policies have built Beijing’s manufacturing base, at the expense of its competitors -– especially the United States of America.

China’s actions have contributed to a trade deficit with the United States that last year ran to $375 billion –- nearly half of our global trade deficit. As President Trump said just this week, in his words, “We rebuilt China” over the last 25 years.

Now, through the “Made in China 2025” plan, the Communist Party has set its sights on controlling 90 percent of the world’s most advanced industries, including robotics, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence. To win the commanding heights of the 21st century economy, Beijing has directed its bureaucrats and businesses to obtain American intellectual property –- the foundation of our economic leadership -– by any means necessary.

Beijing now requires many American businesses to hand over their trade secrets as the cost of doing business in China. It also coordinates and sponsors the acquisition of American firms to gain ownership of their creations. Worst of all, Chinese security agencies have masterminded the wholesale theft of American technology –- including cutting-edge military blueprints. And using that stolen technology, the Chinese Communist Party is turning plowshares into swords on a massive scale.

China now spends as much on its military as the rest of Asia combined, and Beijing has prioritized capabilities to erode America’s military advantages on land, at sea, in the air, and in space. China wants nothing less than to push the United States of America from the Western Pacific and attempt to prevent us from coming to the aid of our allies. But they will fail.

Beijing is also using its power like never before. Chinese ships routinely patrol around the Senkaku Islands, which are administered by Japan. And while China’s leader stood in the Rose Garden at the White House in 2015 and said that his country had, and I quote, “no intention to militarize” the South China Sea, today, Beijing has deployed advanced anti-ship and anti-air missiles atop an archipelago of military bases constructed on artificial islands.

China’s aggression was on display this week, when a Chinese naval vessel came within 45 yards of the USS Decatur as it conducted freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea, forcing our ship to quickly maneuver to avoid collision. Despite such reckless harassment, the United States Navy will continue to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows and our national interests demand. We will not be intimidated and we will not stand down. (Applause.)

America had hoped that economic liberalization would bring China into a greater partnership with us and with the world. Instead, China has chosen economic aggression, which has in turn emboldened its growing military.

Nor, as we had hoped, has Beijing moved toward greater freedom for its own people. For a time, Beijing inched toward greater liberty and respect for human rights. But in recent years, China has taken a sharp U-turn toward control and oppression of its own people.

Today, China has built an unparalleled surveillance state, and it’s growing more expansive and intrusive – often with the help of U.S. technology. What they call the “Great Firewall of China” likewise grows higher, drastically restricting the free flow of information to the Chinese people.

And by 2020, China’s rulers aim to implement an Orwellian system premised on controlling virtually every facet of human life — the so-called “Social Credit Score.” In the words of that program’s official blueprint, it will “allow the trustworthy to roam everywhere under heaven, while making it hard for the discredited to take a single step.”

And when it comes to religious freedom, a new wave of persecution is crashing down on Chinese Christians, Buddhists, and Muslims.

Last month, Beijing shut down one of China’s largest underground churches. Across the country, authorities are tearing down crosses, burning bibles, and imprisoning believers. And Beijing has now reached a deal with the Vatican that gives the avowedly atheist Communist Party a direct role in appointing Catholic bishops. For China’s Christians, these are desperate times.

Beijing is also cracking down on Buddhism. Over the past decade, more than 150 Tibetan Buddhist monks have lit themselves on fire to protest China’s repression of their beliefs and their culture. And in Xinjiang, the Communist Party has imprisoned as many as one million Muslim Uyghurs in government camps where they endure around-the-clock brainwashing. Survivors of the camps have described their experiences as a deliberate attempt by Beijing to strangle Uyghur culture and stamp out the Muslim faith.

As history attests though, a country that oppresses its own people rarely stops there. And Beijing also aims to extend its reach across the wider world. As Hudson’s own Dr. Michael Pillsbury has written, “China has opposed the actions and goals of the U.S. government. Indeed, China is building its own relationships with America’s allies and enemies that contradict any peaceful or productive intentions of Beijing.”

In fact, China uses so-called “debt diplomacy” to expand its influence. Today, that country is offering hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure loans to governments from Asia to Africa to Europe and even Latin America. Yet the terms of those loans are opaque at best, and the benefits invariably flow overwhelmingly to Beijing.

Just ask Sri Lanka, which took on massive debt to let Chinese state companies build a port of questionable commercial value. Two years ago, that country could no longer afford its payments, so Beijing pressured Sri Lanka to deliver the new port directly into Chinese hands. It may soon become a forward military base for China’s growing blue-water navy.

Within our own hemisphere, Beijing has extended a lifeline to the corrupt and incompetent Maduro regime in Venezuela that’s been oppressing its own people. They pledged $5 billion in questionable loans to be repaid with oil. China is also that country’s single largest creditor, saddling the Venezuelan people with more than $50 billion in debt, even as their democracy vanishes. Beijing is also impacting some nations’ politics by providing direct support to parties and candidates who promise to accommodate China’s strategic objectives.

And since last year alone, the Chinese Communist Party has convinced three Latin American nations to sever ties with Taipei and recognize Beijing. These actions threaten the stability of the Taiwan Strait, and the United States of America condemns these actions. And while our administration will continue to respect our One China Policy, as reflected in the three joint communiqués and the Taiwan Relations Act, America will always believe that Taiwan’s embrace of democracy shows a better path for all the Chinese people. (Applause.)

Now these are only a few of the ways that China has sought to advance its strategic interests across the world, with growing intensity and sophistication. Yet previous administrations all but ignored China’s actions. And in many cases, they abetted them. But those days are over.

Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States of America has been defending our interests with renewed American strength.

We’ve been making the strongest military in the history of the world stronger still. Earlier this year, President Trump signed into law the largest increase in our national defense since the days of Ronald Reagan -– $716 billion to extend the strength of the American military to every domain.

We’re modernizing our nuclear arsenal. We’re fielding and developing new cutting-edge fighters and bombers. We’re building a new generation of aircraft carriers and warships. We’re investing as never before in our armed forces. And this includes initiating the process to establish the United States Space Force to ensure our continued dominance in space, and we’ve taken action to authorize increased capability in the cyber world to build deterrence against our adversaries.

At President Trump’s direction, we’re also implementing tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, with the highest tariffs specifically targeting the advanced industries that Beijing is trying to capture and control. And as the President has also made clear, we will levy even more tariffs, with the possibility of substantially more than doubling that number, unless a fair and reciprocal deal is made. (Applause.)

These actions — exercises in American strength — have had a major impact. China’s largest stock exchange fell by 25 percent in the first nine months of this year, in large part because our administration has been standing strong against Beijing’s trade practices.

As President Trump has made clear, we don’t want China’s markets to suffer. In fact, we want them to thrive. But the United States wants Beijing to pursue trade policies that are free, fair, and reciprocal. And we will continue to stand and demand that they do. (Applause.)

Sadly, China’s rulers, thus far, have refused to take that path. The American people deserve to know: In response to the strong stand that President Trump has taken, Beijing is pursuing a comprehensive and coordinated campaign to undermine support for the President, our agenda, and our nation’s most cherished ideals.

I want to tell you today what we know about China’s actions here at home — some of which we’ve gleaned from intelligence assessments, some of which are publicly available. But all of which are fact.

As I said before, as we speak, Beijing is employing a whole-of-government approach to advance its influence and benefit its interests. It’s employing this power in more proactive and coercive ways to interfere in the domestic policies of this country and to interfere in the politics of the United States.

The Chinese Communist Party is rewarding or coercing American businesses, movie studios, universities, think tanks, scholars, journalists, and local, state, and federal officials.

And worst of all, China has initiated an unprecedented effort to influence American public opinion, the 2018 elections, and the environment leading into the 2020 presidential elections. To put it bluntly, President Trump’s leadership is working; and China wants a different American President.

There can be no doubt: China is meddling in America’s democracy. As President Trump said just last week, we have, in his words, “found that China has been attempting to interfere in our upcoming [midterm] election[s].”

Our intelligence community says that “China is targeting U.S. state and local governments and officials to exploit any divisions between federal and local levels on policy. It’s using wedge issues, like trade tariffs, to advance Beijing’s political influence.”

In June, Beijing itself circulated a sensitive document, entitled “Propaganda and Censorship Notice.” It laid out its strategy. It stated that China must, in their words, “strike accurately and carefully, splitting apart different domestic groups” in the United States of America.

To that end, Beijing has mobilized covert actors, front groups, and propaganda outlets to shift Americans’ perception of Chinese policy. As a senior career member of our intelligence community told me just this week, what the Russians are doing pales in comparison to what China is doing across this country. And the American people deserve to know it.

Senior Chinese officials have also tried to influence business leaders to encourage them to condemn our trade actions, leveraging their desire to maintain their operations in China. In one recent example, China threatened to deny a business license for a major U.S. corporation if they refused to speak out against our administration’s policies.

And when it comes to influencing the midterms, you need only look at Beijing’s tariffs in response to ours. The tariffs imposed by China to date specifically targeted industries and states that would play an important role in the 2018 election. By one estimate, more than 80 percent of U.S. counties targeted by China voted for President Trump and I in 2016; now China wants to turn these voters against our administration.

And China is also directly appealing to the American voters. Last week, the Chinese government paid to have a multipage supplement inserted into the Des Moines Register –- the paper of record of the home state of our Ambassador to China, and a pivotal state in 2018 and 2020. The supplement, designed to look like the news articles, cast our trade policies as reckless and harmful to Iowans.

Fortunately, Americans aren’t buying it. For example, American farmers are standing with this President and are seeing real results from the strong stands that he’s taken, including this week’s U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, where we’ve substantially opened North American markets to U.S. products. The USMCA is a great win for American farmers and American manufacturers. (Applause.)

But China’s actions aren’t focused solely on influencing our policies and politics. Beijing is also taking steps to exploit its economic leverage, and the allure of their large marketplace, to advance its influence over American businesses.

Beijing now requires American joint ventures that operate in China to establish what they call “party organizations” within their company, giving the Communist Party a voice –- and perhaps a veto -– in hiring and investment decisions.

Chinese authorities have also threatened U.S. companies that depict Taiwan as a distinct geographic entity, or that stray from Chinese policy on Tibet. Beijing compelled Delta Airlines to publicly apologize for not calling Taiwan a “province of China” on its website. And it pressured Marriott to fire a U.S. employee who merely liked a tweet about Tibet.

And Beijing routinely demands that Hollywood portray China in a strictly positive light. It punishes studios and producers that don’t. Beijing’s censors are quick to edit or outlaw movies that criticize China, even in minor ways. For the movie, “World War Z,” they had to cut the script’s mention of a virus because it originated in China. The movie, “Red Dawn” was digitally edited to make the villains North Korean, not Chinese.

But beyond business and entertainment, the Chinese Communist Party is also spending billions of dollars on propaganda outlets in the United States and, frankly, around the world.

China Radio International now broadcasts Beijing-friendly programs on over 30 U.S. outlets, many in major American cities. The China Global Television Network reaches more than 75 million Americans, and it gets its marching orders directly from its Communist Party masters. As China’s top leader put it during a visit to the network’s headquarters, and I quote, “The media run by the Party and the government are propaganda fronts and must have the Party as their surname.”

It’s for those reasons and that reality that, last month, the Department of Justice ordered that network to register as a foreign agent.

The Communist Party has also threatened and detained the Chinese family members of American journalists who pry too deep. And it’s blocked the websites of U.S. media organizations and made it harder for our journalists to get visas. This happened after the New York Times published investigative reports about the wealth of some of China’s leaders.

But the media isn’t the only place where the Chinese Communist Party seeks to foster a culture of censorship. The same is true across academia.

I mean, look no further than the Chinese Students and Scholars Association, of which there are more than 150 branches across America’s campuses. These groups help organize social events for some of the more than 430,000 Chinese nationals studying in the United States. They also alert Chinese consulates and embassies when Chinese students, and American schools, stray from the Communist Party line.

At the University of Maryland, a Chinese student recently spoke at her graduation of what she called, and I quote, the “fresh air of free speech” in America. The Communist Party’s official newspaper swiftly chastised her. She became the victim of a firestorm of criticism on China’s tightly-controlled social media, and her family back home was harassed. As for the university itself, its exchange program with China — one of the nation’s most extensive — suddenly turned from a flood to a trickle.

China exerts academic pressure in other ways, as well. Beijing provides generous funding to universities, think tanks, and scholars, with the understanding that they will avoid ideas that the Communist Party finds dangerous or offensive. China experts in particular know that their visas will be delayed or denied if their research contradicts Beijing’s talking points.

And even scholars and groups who avoid Chinese funding are targeted by that country, as the Hudson Institute found out firsthand. After you offered to host a speaker Beijing didn’t like, your website suffered a major cyberattack, originating from Shanghai. The Hudson Institute knows better than most that the Chinese Communist Party is trying to undermine academic freedom and the freedom of speech in America today.

These and other actions, taken as a whole, constitute an intensifying effort to shift American public opinion and policy away from the “America First” leadership of President Donald Trump.

But our message to China’s rulers is this: This President will not back down. (Applause.) The American people will not be swayed. And we will continue to stand strong for our security and our economy, even as we hope for improved relations with Beijing.

Our administration is going to continue to act decisively to protect America’s interests, American jobs, and American security.

As we rebuild our military, we will continue to assert American interests across the Indo-Pacific.

As we respond to China’s trade practices, we will continue to demand an economic relationship with China that is free, fair, and reciprocal. We will demand that Beijing break down its trade barriers, fulfill its obligations, fully open its economy — just as we have opened ours.

We’ll continue to take action against Beijing until the theft of American intellectual property ends once and for all. And we will continue to stand strong until Beijing stops the predatory practice of forced technology transfer. We will protect the private property interests of American enterprise. (Applause.)

And to advance our vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, we’re building new and stronger bonds with nations that share our values across the region, from India to Samoa. Our relationships will flow from a spirit of respect built on partnership, not domination.

We’re forging new trade deals on a bilateral basis, just as last week President Trump signed an improved trade deal with South Korea. And we will soon begin historic negotiations for a bilateral free-trade deal with Japan. (Applause.)

I’m also pleased to report that we’re streamlining international development and finance programs. We’ll be giving foreign nations a just and transparent alternative to China’s debt-trap diplomacy. In fact, this week, President Trump will sign the BUILD Act into law.

Next month, it will be my privilege to represent the United States in Singapore and Papua New Guinea, at ASEAN and APEC. There, we will unveil new measures and programs to support a free and open Indo-Pacific. And on behalf of the President, I will deliver the message that America’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific has never been stronger. (Applause.)

Closer to home, to protect our interests, we’ve recently strengthened CFIUS — the Committee on Foreign Investment — heightening our scrutiny of Chinese investment in America to protect our national security from Beijing’s predatory actions.

And when it comes to Beijing’s malign influence and interference in American politics and policy, we will continue to expose it, no matter the form it takes. We will work with leaders at every level of society to defend our national interests and most cherished ideals. The American people will play the decisive role — and, in fact, they already are.

As we gather here, a new consensus is rising across America. More business leaders are thinking beyond the next quarter, and thinking twice before diving into the Chinese market if it means turning over their intellectual property or abetting Beijing’s oppression. But more must follow suit. For example, Google should immediately end development of the “Dragonfly” app that will strengthen Communist Party censorship and compromise the privacy of Chinese customers. (Applause.)

It’s also great to see more journalists reporting the truth without fear or favor, digging deep to find where China is interfering in our society, and why. And we hope that American and global news organizations will continue to join this effort on an increasing basis.

More scholars are also speaking out forcefully and defending academic freedom, and more universities and think tanks are mustering the courage to turn away Beijing’s easy money, recognizing that every dollar comes with a corresponding demand. And we’re confident that their ranks will grow.

And across the nation, the American people are growing in vigilance, with a newfound appreciation for our administration’s actions and the President’s leadership to reset America’s economic and strategic relationship with China. Americans stand strong behind a President that’s putting America first.

And under President Trump’s leadership, I can assure you, America will stay the course. China should know that the American people and their elected officials in both parties are resolved.

As our National Security Strategy states: We should remember that “Competition does not always mean hostility,” nor does it have to. The President has made clear, we want a constructive relationship with Beijing where our prosperity and security grow together, not apart. While Beijing has been moving further away from this vision, China’s rulers can still change course and return to the spirit of reform and opening that characterize the beginning of this relationship decades ago. The American people want nothing more; and the Chinese people deserve nothing less.

The great Chinese storyteller Lu Xun often lamented that his country, and he wrote, “has either looked down at foreigners as brutes, or up to them as saints,” but never “as equals.” Today, America is reaching out our hand to China. And we hope that soon, Beijing will reach back with deeds, not words, and with renewed respect for America. But be assured: we will not relent until our relationship with China is grounded in fairness, reciprocity, and respect for our sovereignty. (Applause.)

There is an ancient Chinese proverb that reads, “Men see only the present, but heaven sees the future.” As we go forward, let us pursue a future of peace and prosperity with resolve and faith. Faith in President Trump’s leadership and vision, and the relationship that he has forged with China’s president. Faith in the enduring friendship between the American people and the Chinese people. And Faith that heaven sees the future — and by God’s grace, America and China will meet that future together.

Thank you. God bless you. And God bless the United States of America. (Applause.)

END

11:47 A.M. EDT

Photo: The White House via flickr

Text of VP Pence’s Speech: The White House

People’s Republic of China October 1, 1949 – October 1, 2018.

2018 Marks the 69th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. It has been a tumultuous seven decades since Mao Zedong stood atop Tienanmen square and declared that the Chinese people have stood up. The nation has moved from war to peace and from foreign intervention to total self-sovereignty. The economy after a rocky start has become one of the strongest in the world, and is now ranked at #2. President Xi Jinping has proposed a grand vision in creating an even better life and society for the 21st century and beyond. The future holds much in store for the PRC and the Chinese people. What do you think will happen in China and in the world in the next 80 years? Please let us know your thoughts. 

The Mystery of Aung San Suu Kyi.

                by David Parmer / Tokyo

It would be convenient if there were some easy answers to the question: “What is going on with Aung San Suu Kyi?” There are some things we know, and some things we may never know about the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize winner.

We know she is Burma’s state counselor, her party, the National League for Democracy having won the 2105 election with her taking office in March 2016. We also know she has a record of fighting for democracy in her native Burma.

And we know that she has not spoken up about the alleged rape, murder, and genocide of Rohingya Muslims from Rakhine state. (Rohingya have left Burma by the hundreds of thousands and now the numbers are estimated to be at 500,000.) Nor has she spoken out for the two Reuters journalists who were jailed for reporting about the massacre of Rohingya. She rather claimed that they had been tried and jailed properly for violating the Official Secrets Act.

We also know that Suu Kyi has been roundly condemned abroad for her stance on these two issues, i.e. the Rohingya genocide and the jailing of the journalists. Several awards that have been given her  (short of the Nobel Peace Prize) have been withdrawn.

So what is going on with Suu Kyi? What is rationale for remaining in power (such as it is) and not speaking out? Does she feel she can ultimately do more good by ignoring these questions and staying where she is? Is she retreating to fight another day, or are her personal beliefs not so far different from the generals whose hands still rest on the levers of power in Burma?

Suu Kyi has spent 15 years under house arrest, and maybe the 73-year old widow has decided that she doesn’t have that many years left on this Earth, and she doesn’t want to spend them under house arrest, or in a real prison for taking action that would in no way change the policy of the real power holders in Burma. Those of us who have our freedom, and have always had it, may not have a clue about what it means to lose that freedom. Suu Kyi does, and maybe she is not willing to throw that freedom away for a lost cause no matter how “moral” it would seem in the short term.

It would be nice to have some easy answers, to find her “guilty” of not stepping forward and exerting her moral authority, or what is left of it. But we are not in her shoes and it is extremely hard to know the heart and mind of another human being–any other human being, but especially Aung San Suu Kyi.

Photo: Northern Ireland Office via flickr

A Most Dangerous Time.

                by David Parmer / Tokyo

As of September 11, 2018 there are 56 days until the US midterm elections for the US House of Representatives and the US Senate on November 6, 2018. All things considered, it is a very dangerous time. The reasons for this are not hard to discern.

First, Donald Trump is hounded not only by the specter of the Robert Mueller investigation into Russian collusion in the 2016 election and the ongoing scandals concerning women who claim to have had affairs with him, but also by what his former attorney Michael Cohen (who was convicted in US Federal Court on 8 counts of tax evasion and unlawful campaign contributions) could make known about the Trump organization in exchange for a plea deal with the government. Cohen joined a long line of Trump officials convicted of various charges including former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort.

While Donald Trump puts on a brave face and predicts a “red wave” (Republican victory) in November in front of his base, most analysts suggest that there will, in fact, be a “blue wave” (Democratic victory) of monumental proportions. No one can tell how big this will be, but it will be a referendum on the Trump presidency, and not one that will please the 45th President of the United States.

CNN reported on September 11 that Trump’s support among independent voters was down to 31%. These might be the same people who wanted to “give him a chance” in 2016, but who have now woken up to his egregious incompetence to hold the highest office in the land.

Donald Trump’s most common response when confronted with unpleasant reality is to create a distraction, something to take his voters’ minds off the latest scandal placed at his feet or upon his head. The coming “blue wave” will mean that Trump is finally checked by congress as the Founding Fathers intended when they framed the US constitution. Checked, and possibly impeached for his many crimes and misdemeanors. And herein lies the danger, for this time Trump cannot simply hold a rally in front of his followers and rail against “fake news.” No, this time he will have to create a distraction of mammoth proportions to outweigh the blue tsunami heading for Trump Tower.

Trump still has enormous power under the US Constitution, and there is no telling how he will use it. He could easily get the US into a shooting war or shooting incident with countries like Iran or China or even Russia. A manufactured incident like the “Gulf of Tonkin” or a real one like the attack on the World Trade Center on 9/11 would make Trump a “wartime president” and theoretically hide his troubles as Americans rallied around the flag. It is also possible that countries that wish to see Trump remain in power (read Russia) might assist him by creating an incident to aid him.

So these are dangerous times indeed. While Trump may be deluded into thinking that the strength of the economy might save him, he is still cunning enough to sense what is approaching in just 56 days. Let us hope that those patriots inside the government and inside the White House prevent him further setting the world aflame and unbalancing the world order. May God help us all.

Photo:NASA HQ via flickr