Sergey Kislyak–Your Favorite Uncle, or Russia’s Real-life Karla?

                          by David Parmer/Tokyo

Is Russia’s ambassador to the United States a hard-working diplomat serving his country, and whose conduct is beyond reproach, or is he a real-life version of Russia’s top spy and George Smiley’s nemesis, Karla, in the John Le Carre novels? Well, it depends on to whom you listen.

A bit of background. Sergey Ivanovich Kislyak is a career diplomat who has held a variety of postings within Russia’s Foreign Ministry in his 40 year diplomatic career. Besides working in various jobs related to scientific cooperation, he has been ambassador to Belgium, representative to NATO and First Secretary at the Russian Embassy in Washington. Since 2008 he has been the ambassador.

What has brought Kislyak’s name to the fore is his contact with members of the Trump team before and after the election of 2016. His repeated phone conversations with Trump’s short-lived National Security Advisor Michael Flynn cost Flynn his job. Now there is a furor over contacts between not only Attorney General Jeff Sessions, but also other members of the team. Trump’s favorable remarks about Russian President Vladimir Putin have also opened him to charges of being soft on Russia.

Jumping into the fray, CNN has quoted intelligence officials as labeling Kislyak as Russia’s top spy in the US.

The Russians have reacted with anger and distain at these charges. On March 3, CNN reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking at a press conference in Moscow said regarding Kislyak and his contacts:

“The ambassadors are appointed in order to maintain relationships,”

 “They are maintained by holding meetings, talks and establishing contacts with officials from both executive and legislative branches of power. I can only quote what the media said today – this all looks like a witch hunt.”

Two days later, on March 5, Nicholas Burns, Harvard Professor and former ambassador to NATO who had worked opposite Kislyak, appeared on CNN where he had some hard words about Kislyak and the Russians.

“He is no friend of the United States.”

He described the ambassador as intelligent and professional, but added:

“The Russians are trying to defeat the United State.”

“They don’t wish us well.”

Burns ended by saying the whole problem was caused by Trump’s soft policy on Russia and added that the US does not need Russia to defeat ISIS (Daesh).

So, which hat does Mr. Kislyak wear–diplomat, spy, or both? Please let us know your thoughts on this.

Photo: creative commons via wikipedia

 

 

 

 

ASEAN World Heritage Sites – Luang Prabang, Laos

Luang Prabang, the former royal capital of Laos has seen its share of history and conflict. Governments and armies have come and gone, yet one of ASEAN’s and Asia’s premier cultural and tourist destinations remains. Laos was again opened to tourism in 1989, and this saw the revival of this sleepy northern provincial capital located on the confluence of the Nam Kahan and Mekong rivers.

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In 1995, Luang Prabang was designated an UNESCO World Heritage Site.The UNESCO website gives the most concise reason for the selection:

Luang Prabang is an outstanding example of the fusion of traditional architecture and Lao urban structures with those built by the European colonial authorities in the 19th and 20th centuries. Its unique, remarkably well-preserved townscape illustrates a key stage in the blending of these two distinct cultural traditions.

 

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The charm of the mixed architecture together with the natural beauty of tropical Laos and the many Buddhist temples (33) makes Luang Prabang a tourist magnet. Travel by air is available from Thailand and Vietnam while boat and bus transport is available for the more adventurous travellers. Luang Prabang seems to have everything one could ask for except international fast food chains–something than many will find a welcome change.

UNESCO World Heritage Luang Prabang

Luang Prabang photos via wikipedia

Top Photo: by Paul via flickr

China MOD: No Boots on the Ground in Afghanistan!

China’s Ministry of Defense has categorically denied reports that the Chinese military is patrolling on the Afghanistan side of their border.

Stories  in foreign media about Chinese troops and military vehicles cross-border were said to be untrue. The explanation given for the alleged military activity was that joint anti-terrorism drills were taking place.

At a regular press conference on February 23, the MOD spokesperson, Colonel Ren Guoqiang declared:

 Question: There have been reports about China’s military forces patrolling inside eastern Afghanistan. Could you please confirm and brief us on relevant details?

 Answer18: My colleague has already responded to this question before. According to the information provided by relevant departments, the law-enforcement departments of China and Afghanistan, in accordance with the agreement of strengthening border law enforcement cooperation between the two sides, have been conducting joint law enforcement operations in areas bordering both countries in recent years, in order to jointly prevent and fight against terrorism activities and organized transnational crimes.

I’d like to point out that the report of some foreign media that the Chinese military vehicles entered Afghanistan for patrol is untrue.

Does the MOD explanation makes sense, or could there be another explanation? Please let us know you opinion.

Photo: mod.gov.cn/Li Aiming

Mystery Deepens over Chinese Forces in Afghanistan (Financial Times)

Online Financing: Ponzi Scheme or Engine for Growth?

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By Bill Lee

China’s 1.4 billion people are reportedly sitting on US$16 trillion of personal assets. The problem for the people is how to maximize gains from those assets, and for the government how to utilize that cash hoard for the economy. China’s ingenious answer: online financing, or, as it’s called in China, Internet finance.  

People want the highest returns on their investments, and with many individual investors stung by the rollercoaster ride of China’s stock markets, they are looking for other roads to riches. Online financing companies post offerings for private-sector SMEs looking for investment on the Internet. With only a smartphone, an individual can read information about the company, including the company’s credit history, and with only a few clicks, invest in it. The fin-tech companies promise returns of up to 30%.

For the government, wishing to rid China of the label as the “world’s factory,” online financing provides a way to channel much-needed capital to private-sector SMEs such as steel subcontractors, which have been hit by the glut of Chinese steel. Banks are normally supposed to function as conduits for providing capital to companies to grow the economy — the Lehman shock in America showed what happens when banks ignore that function and get greedy — but China’s banks have their hands full financing huge SOEs. It all seems an elegant solution for all.

The main pitfall of course is the Internet finance companies scamming their investors. Up to a third of these companies have reportedly received complaints, not the least of which involve the president of the company pulling up stumps and leaving town. Though not as big as the Bernie Madoff scandal, the Ezubao online finance company duped more than $7.5 billion from investors in a Ponzi scheme. Although these scandals are what always generate the headlines, they don’t give an accurate picture. It may have problems, but online financing has made China a venture capital superpower.

Photo: Andrew Erickson via Flickr

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The S-400 Triumf–Russia’s “Killer App”

                            by David Parmer/Tokyo

Are you having a busy week? OK, here is the bottom line of this article to save you time reading the whole thing. Bottom line: if it flies, Russia’s S-400 Triumf air defense missile system can knock it out of the sky.

The S-400 Triumf (NATO designation SA-21 Growler) can track 300 targets, has a range of 400 km, and its missiles can reach an altitude of 30km. A battery of S-400 has eight launchers, a control center, radar and a basic load of 16 missiles.

The S-400 is designed to eliminate all sorts of aerial targets including:

  • Bombers
  • AWACS
  • U2
  • Advanced generation fighters
  • Cruise missiles
  • Ballistic missiles

Moreover, the S-400 can detect stealth and non-stealth aircraft at extended ranges. The Triumf can also function as part of an integrated air defense system, (IADS) a system that nullifies, to a certain extent, the opponent’s stealth technology and jamming capabilities.

The S-400 is not a “new” system. It was first rolled out by Russia in 2007 and is now in operation in Russia as well as being deployed in Syria. As a matter of course, Russia has supplied its own needs before turning to export inquiries. Indeed, there seems to be no shortage of potential buyers including Turkey and Vietnam among others.

India, for one is eager to get its hands on the S-400; it plans to place three systems in its western region and two systems in its eastern region. There was much fanfare in October 2016 over the signing of an S-400 arms deal with Russia, but no delivery date has been announced publicly.

The PRC is also a prime customer for the S-400 system. A report in Sputnik News on 15 February 2017 quotes Rostec State Corporation as saying China’s systems are now under production. This is good news for China, but worrisome for China’s potential opponents.The S-400 will not only let China guard its own airspace, (A2/AD) but also extend its coverage to airspace over Taiwan and the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.

The S-400 system isn’t new, but all reports suggest it is one of Russia’s best “killer apps” when it comes to weapons systems and global arms sales.

Photo: Russian S-400 Missile System via Financial Express

The Handshake That Changed The World

                                by David Parmer

The photo above captures forever the moment when Richard M. Nixon, 37th President of The United States extended his hand to China’s premier, Zhou Enlai. President Nixon called his trip “the week that changed the world” and this handshake was the start of that week.

For more than 20 years the US and the PRC had not been talking. The US backed the Republic of China (ROC) during the bloody civil war following the defeat of Japan. The US had also fought Chinese troops in the Korean War. So, in short, there was no love lost. Americans were imperialists and the PRC were “Red Chinese.”  What’s more, during his long political career, Richard Nixon had made no secret of his strong anti-communist convictions.

Later, some said that, precisely because of those anti-communist credentials, only Nixon could have made this gesture and this trip. While Mr. Nixon spoke of making a safer world and a world of peace during the public ceremony in Washington before his departure on February 17th, deeper political realities were underneath, particularly an attempt to gain leverage on the Soviet Union by making peace with the PRC. Some commentators suggest that the US also hoped to get some leverage on the North Vietnamese with the aid of Chinese help.

China itself had had border disputes with it colossal neighbor to the north, and just a few years before had engaged in a drawn-out shooting incident along their Ussuri River border. So perhaps both the US and China  saw some tactical advantages in their relations with the Soviets in addition to other hoped-for benefits.

No sooner had Nixon and his party arrived at their guesthouse on that February day than Chairman Mao sent Premier Zhou to tell the president that the chairman would see them. Now. Mr. Nixon, Henry Kissinger, Winston Lord and one Secret Service agent motored over to see the chairman for a two-hour meeting. (The minutes of the meeting as taken by Mr. Lord can be read here.) Nixon and Mao had a frank discussion, but Mao was in turn philosophical, jovial and obscure. The aging and frail Mao had made his point, and now it was up to Premier Zhou to work out the details (and keep Chairman Mao updated on the proceedings.)

In the week that followed there were predictably speeches and toasts and meetings and sightseeing for the Nixons and their party. They went to West Lake in Hangzhou, to the Beijing Zoo, and to the Great Wall outside of Beijing. At the Great Wall, it was Mr. Nixon who waxed philosophical, giving the opinion that it was a great people who built the Great Wall. He also noted his party had travelled 17,000 miles, to get to China, but he felt that “it was worth coming.”

For the final stop on the trip the president’s party returned to Shanghai, and there, at the Jin Jiang Hotel, the Shanghai Communiqué was written and agreed upon. The document pointed out areas of agreement between the two countries and laid out a roadmap for normalization of relations.

Of particular note was the statement concerning Taiwan that became the “One China Policy.” This could be seen as the second most important outcome of Mr. Nixon’s visit coming very close to the sheer audacity of making the trip at all.

In his closing remarks the president said, “generations will look back and thank us.” It is now 45 years later. Does this generation realize the significance of February 1972, or will more time have to pass before there is clarity on this game-changing event?

Photo: Richard Nixon and  Zhou Enlai February 21, 1971.  Beijing/Public Domain

US to Iran: There’s A New Marshal in Town

                            by David Parmer

In US Western movies when a new law officer comes to clean up a corrupt town or replace a weak response to crime with a strong one, and deal with the “bad hombres,” it is said “There’s a new Marshal in town.”

“Iran is playing with fire–they don’t appreciate how ‘kind’ President Obama was to them. Not me! “ (Donald Trump, Twitter February 3, 2017)

When asked whether his administration’s tough new posture could mean a military strike, Trump answered, “Nothing’s off the table.” (Washington Post, February 2, 2017)

And just a day earlier, on February 1, Mr. Trump’s National Security Advisor, Michael Flyn made a special announcement, telling the world that Iran is “on notice” after conducting a ballistic missile test on January 29th.

So there is no doubt about the message from Washington. It came loud and clear: There is a new marshal in town. And from now on, things will be different vis-a-vis Iran. Much different.

During the election and after the election, candidate Trump and then President Trump sent out a strong anti-Iran message. Trump tweeted about the Iran nuclear deal, and how Washington had foolishly released Iran’s billions.

Israel and Saudi Arabia were on the same page, criticizing the nuclear deal that had been hammered out after long and hard negotiations by Iran and the international community.

The Iranians were having none of it. Iran’s VON news agency reported on February 7 that Iran’s Supreme Leader Seyyed Ali Khameni when addressing Iran Air Force members prior to the 38th anniversary of the Islamic revolution stated: “Iranians are not afraid of threats.”

Al Jazeera reported on February 7,  that during the same speech, the Supreme Leader went on to say:

“We are thankful to this gentleman … he showed the real face of America,” Khamenei said in a speech to military officers in Tehran on Tuesday.

“[It was] what we have said for more than 30 years – that there is political, economic, moral and social corruption in the ruling system of the US. This gentleman came and brought it out into the open in the election and after the election.”

But Khameni didn’t stop there, he responded to Trump’s tweet about being kind by saying that the former (Obama) administration was responsible for the creation of Daesh and the problems in Iraq and Iran.

On February 10 IRNA News reported that, Iran’s Major General Yahya Rahmin Safavi, former commander of the Revolutionary Guards and advisor to Khameni said that the “triangle of evil” (US, UK, Israel) could not pose any threat against Iran.

So the gauntlet has been thrown down. A war of words in ongoing. The question now is: How will these words turn into action? One answer is more sanctions from the US against persons and institutions of the Islamic Republic. Another response might be covert action against Iran’s proxies in the region.

One worrying scenario would be armed confrontation between US and Iran naval or air forces in the region. In January 2016 two US navy boats were seized by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and the world saw pictures of American sailors in surrender mode before the Revolutionary Guard. This incident is only a year old and certainly fresh in the minds of many who saw the US diplomatic response as weak. Given the current mindset in Washington regarding Iran, one could expect a strong, forceful and decisive military response should anything of a similar nature take place.

There has been no “dialing back” of rhetoric on either side, and seemingly no intention on Washington’s part to do so. So tensions will remain high and the possibility for military action is a real probability. 

Photo:kate gabrielle via flickr (Creative Commons)

His Universe in Seven Days

by Bill Lee

Like God, US President Donald Trump tried to create his own world in seven days. Did he succeed? He signed executive orders — thunderbolts from God — paving the way for construction of the Dakota XL pipeline — bury my heart at Wounded Knee — starting construction on his beloved border wall — “I’ll get Mexico to pay for it” — and pulling the United States out of the TPP. He also made an odd speech at the CIA, making false claims about the size of his inauguration crowd, and on and on. It is difficult to remember it all since there was such a torrent of news. He and his minions succeeded in doing what they apparently do best — creating chaos. But was it gross incompetence, or cunning calculation? Is there method in his madness? Is the flood of action meant to keeps his opponents off balance and distract them from the more important minutiae of change, the fine print, like what he’s actually going to do with Obamacare? His order banning — “extreme vetting” as they tried to recast it — anyone from his designated Muslim-majority countries entering the US ignited virulent protests, but the ban could very well be a precursor to greatly escalated military action by the United States in Iraq and Syria. Trump knows that such action would trigger waves of more refugees, and so he wanted to put a ban on refugees in place to prevent any from fleeing the increased violence. Trump and his advisors had two months to plan their program after entering the White House, and perhaps they are playing it out just the way it was planned.

Photo: antefixus21 via Flickr

2017 The Dawn of a New Year

Soon the year 2017 will dawn and we will all face a new year filled with promise and hope and many challenges. Opportunities for new advances in science and technology and new ideas and creativity in the arts will flow. At the same time we will be faced with the prospect of wars and tensions worldwide. Global warming, poverty and a global environment under constant threat are all issues that will persist in 2017. So we are faced with both challenges and hope in the coming year. Please log in and give us your thoughts on what will happen in 2017, and what is important to you.

Photo: Jerryang via flickr

Happy Holidays and Thanks!

All of us at Research Group 21 would like to wish you Happy Holidays, and to thank you for your support during 2016.

The Year of the Monkey has lived up to its name, for nothing seemed settled and everything seemed wild like the antics of Sun Wu Kong, the monkey in Journey To The West.

We hope it was a prosperous and educational year for you, and we wish you a rich and happy and healthy 2017. Please continue to follow us, and log in to give us your comments on world events in the coming year.

Photo: Denis Collette via flickr