作者別: RG21管理者

                  Myanmar President Thien Sien

Myanmar’s year as ASEAN chair for 2014 ended on November 13th when the gavel was handed to Malaysia who will be ASEAN’s 2015 chair. The transfer took place at a ceremony at the close of the 25th ASEAN  Summit in Naypyidaw, Myanmar. So how did Myanmar handle the job in 2014? Most observers seem to agree that they did it pretty well.

The 2014 theme was “Moving Forward In Unity to a Peaceful and Prosperous Community.” Myanmar faced a lot of challenges as it began its year. Internationally, Myanmar had to balance its relations with China with its obligations to ASEAN. Members Vietnam and The Philippines had ongoing disputes with China regarding the South China Sea. Domestically, the recently-emerging Myanmar, led by Thien Sien, had to deal with its problems relating to minorities, specifically the Rohingya and Rakhine peoples. Also, domestically, the country was forced to deal with hosting 21st century events and meetings with antiquated infrastructure.

Myanmar chaired the organization in the year leading up to the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015. Malaysia is expected to move the agenda forward, but some observers speculate that implementation of the AEC, featuring a single market and production base, by the end of 2015 is ambitious at best.

 For Myanmar, its term as ASEAN chair can be seen as a further example of its reform and opening to the world. Focus will now be shifted to elections scheduled for autumn 2015. This year will probably see Myanmar occupied with its internal development and human rights issues, so there will probably be no major developments on the foreign policy front either regionally or internationally. For its 2014 ASEAN chair, it looks like Myanmar got a B+, and that’s pretty good.

http://asiafoundation.org/in-asia/2014/01/08/asean-chairmanship-offers-opportunity-for-myanmar/ 

http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/myanmar_issue_brief_4_final_web.pdf

          Davos-Klosters Switzerland (WEF)

It’s January again, and from the 21st to the 24th of the month, business, political and social leaders will be in Davos-Klosters Switzerland for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. This has been going on since 1971 when Klaus Schwab, Professor of Business Policy at the University of Geneva, chaired the first event. Now it is enough to  simply say “Davos” to conjure up images of leaders from a broad spectrum of fields meeting in an idyllic Swiss resort.

On its website the WEF describes it simply as “the world’s foremost multistakeholder community of leaders.”  These include:

• CEOs
• Political Leaders
• Heads of International Organizations
• Young Global Leaders
• Social Entrepreneurs
• Technology Pioneers
• Media Leaders Spiritual and Cultural Leaders

 Political leaders attending will include Ahmet Davutoglu, Prime Minister, Beji Caid Essebsi, President of Tunisia, Francois Hollande, President of France, Li Keqiang, Prime Minister of the People’s Republic of China, Angela Merkel, Federal Chancellor of Germany, John Kerry, US Secretary of State, Matteo Renzi Prime Minister of Italy and Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa, among others.

 The theme for the 2015 meeting will be the “New Global Context” which will focus on ongoing issues including:

• Growth and Stability
• Crisis and Cooperation
• Society and Security
• Innovation and Industry

  One of the key concepts of the event is for leaders from different disciplines and domains to meet, network and exchange ideas. A ticket to Davos costs a reported $70,000 which gives the ticket holder admission to 250+ sessions in the busy, four-day event. For the rest of us, 100 of the high-powered sessions will be broadcast online. 

Video: Professor Klaus Schwab on Davos 2015

https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/01/video-professor-klaus-schwab-on-davos-2015/

 

                               by David Parmer

All over the world nations project power with immense armies, legions of armored vehicles, swift attack helicopters and sleek jet aircraft. Viewing these forces we might be tempted to think that sea power is a remnant of history at best. But in the geopolitics of Asia we must look to the sea. From Vladivostok in the north to the Strait of Malacca in the south to the Pacific and Indian oceans, water, and not vast steppes, is the key geographical feature. Navies, far from being a thing of the past are the mobile chess pieces with which countries will vie for their strategic goals. And naval technology is constantly evolving to keep up with ever-changing military/political scenarios unfolding on the watery surface of our planet.

This week we will take a look at three ships designed to project force and further national interest. First we will look at Taiwan, then China and finally the United States. 

                 Taiwan Tuo Jiang Corvette (Photo: China Post)

In March 2014 the Taiwan navy took delivery of the first of its new Tuo Jiang class High Efficiency Wave Piercing Catamarans. The Tuo Jiang is a 500 ton twin hull boat that is capable of speeds up to 38kts and has a range of 2,000 nautical miles. The boat carries a crew of 41 and packs a variety of lethal weapons systems. These include eight HF-3 supersonic anti-ship missiles, eight HF-2 anti-ship missiles, six M-32 torpedoes, a primary 76mm gun in front, a Close In Weapons System (CIWS) and two 12.7mm machine guns.

The vessel’s speed, stealth configuration and weapons systems have led it to be dubbed the “carrier killer.” Analysts see the Tuo Jiang vessels (and a total of 12 are now scheduled to be built) as Taiwan adopting the doctrine of asymmetric warfare against its biggest potential rival, the PRC. The doctrine of asymmetric warfare lets a smaller or less technologically advanced adversary use unconventional weapons and tactics to deal with its larger rival. The above-mentioned speed, stealth and weapons package make the Tuo Jiang a formidable adversary for bigger, more conventional naval hardware. The PRC, however, is reported to have a fleet of 60 similar, swift vessels matching the Tuo Jiang.

     China Coast Guard Cutter Haijing (Photo: WantChina Times)

While Taiwan and the U.S. (see below) are exploring smaller and faster vessels to further their strategic game plans, China is going for big. The China Coast Guard (CCG) has ordered two 10,000 ton cutters (12,000 tons loaded), the first, the Haijing 2901 is already in the water at the Shanghai Jiangnan Shipyards and painted with CCG colors. These two will be the largest CG vessels in the world-and certainly larger than Japan’s Shikishima class cutters. Tops speed is reported to be 25kts.

Initial reports said the vessels would be armed with powerful water cannon, but now armament is listed as a 76mm rapid- fire naval gun, two secondary turrets and two AA machine guns. When completed these ships will certainly be deployed in the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku area of the East China Sea where they would signal the PRC’s intentions and determination, if not shift the balance of power in the area.

 USS Independence (LCS 2-front) and USS Freedom (LCS 1-rear)  (Photo: Naval Technology.com)

In keeping with the trend for smaller, faster and mission-versatile requirements, the U.S. Navy adopted two versions of the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS). The Navy opted for two versions of these vessels designed to operate in shallow water and near-shore littoral zones. The first is the monohull Freedom class designed by Lockheed-Martin, and the second is the Independence class trimaran built by General Dynamics/Astal USA. The first Freedom class ship entered service in 2008 and the first Independence class ship entered service in 2009. Although the ships vary greatly, they have the same modular mission concept. The ships are designed to be able to switch “modules” to handle a variety of missions and challenges. These mission modules include:

 

• Surface warfare
• Anti-submarine warfare
• Mine countermeasures
• Irregular warfare

 

Both ships have a top speed of 40kts, carry a crew of 98, and have 2 MH-60 helicopters. Armament consists of a 57mm gun, 21-RIM-116 missiles and 4X50.cal machine guns.

Production of LCSs was originally set at 55 ships, but as of 2014 this has been scaled back to 32. There is now talk of building a next generation of Small Surface Combatants (SSC) based on the LCS hull. Export of the LCS has not gotten much beyond the interest level by foreign governments.

 

http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/taiwan-receives-first-carrier-killer-ship/ 

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20141216000064&cid=1101

http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/littoral/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Introducing Ashton Carter (Photo: White House Gov.)

On November 24, 2014, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel resigned after two years on the job. Hagel had a rough confirmation hearing and never seemed to find his feet at the Department of Defense. Hagel was hired to wind things down; the U.S. military was set to shrink and U.S. forces were pulling out of Afghanistan. Reports suggest that Hagel was having a rough time during his two years, particularly with President Obama’s inner circle.

 Several names were put forward as replacements for Mr. Hagel, but in the end the President settled on Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter. Mr. Carter served as Assistant Secretary of Defense under President Bill Clinton and Deputy Secretary of Defense from October 2011-December 2013. Mr. Carter’s specialties at the Pentagon were budgets and weapons acquisitions. He is reported to have both technical knowledge and policy knowledge. It is expected that his confirmation hearings will go smoothly.

 Mr. Carter has an impressive resume. He was a Rhodes Scholar, and was awarded a Ph.D. in Physics from Oxford University. He also has degrees in Physics and Medieval History from Yale University. Mr. Carter also lectured at Harvard University’s Kennedy School. If confirmed, Ashton Carter would probably have no problems with the Obama insiders. He also promised in his nomination speech to say exactly what he thinks.  Mr. Carter’s confirmation hearings will begin in 2015.

Insight into Mr. Carter’s thinking:

Foreign Affairs –  Running The Pentagon Right by Ashton Carter 

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/140346/ashton-b-carter/running-the-pentagon-right

 Putin’s 2014 News Conference (Photo: Kermlin.ru)

Just about a year ago, on 21 Dec. 2013, we posted an article describing Vladimir Putin’s banner year. Things were going right for the president of Russia. Russia had been instrumental in brokering a Syrian peace deal, an energy agreement with Ukraine went in Russia’s favor, and the Sochi Olympic games were just down the road. A smiling Putin faced the world. But events have a way of making even the rosiest dream into a nightmare. In December 2014 a defiant Putin faced the world at his annual news conference. He promised that the economy would turn around within two years. And the while the economy wasn’t his only problem, it was certainly his main. Russia’s ruble had plunged in value by December 2014, and western sanctions imposed because of Russia’s support of Ukrainian separatists and Russia’s annexation of Crimea were taking their toll.

Added to that was the downing of a Malaysian airliner in July killing 283 passengers and 15 crew. Ukrainian fighters, using Russian equipment, are thought to be to blame. Russian oil exports plummeted as the global price of crude continued to slide at year end. Putin himself remains firm in his beliefs, and his popularity ratings would be the envy of any elected president in the world. Russia and China might again become new best friends, particularly with the progress being made on a new Silk Road. But Vladimir Putin has a tough road ahead in 2015. Hard economic times, sanctions and international isolation look  like they are what is on the cards for the coming year. But let us remember that Putin and the Russians are hardy survivors, and hard times don’t necessarily last forever. Maybe next December will tell a different story. Certainly the Russian president hopes so.