Soybeans at Center Stage in US–China Trade War.

                  by David Parmer / Tokyo

It should be fairly simple: one country produces something, another country buys it. Supply and demand. Case in point–soybeans. The US produces soybeans in abundance, China uses soybeans in abundance. Everything should be good. But it isn’t.

The US under the Trump administration has put substantial tariffs on Chinese goods, and China has retaliated by targeting US products, specifically soybeans by imposing a 25% tariff on soybeans and other agricultural products. China knows that soybeans are grown in the Midwestern United States in the heart of Trump country, and is using this fact to gain some leverage on the US administration.

Soybeans have long been the biggest US agricultural export to China with a recently estimated value of $12.3 billion. China’s appetite for soybeans is truly enormous: the worldwide crop of soybeans for 2018/19 is roughly 13.2M bushels, and China buys 4.2 M bushels, or roughly 1/3 of all beans produced. China uses soybeans for animal feed, oils and human consumption.

 The US, in fact, is the second-largest producer of soybeans in the world, Brazil being the first. What’s more, there are now other players in the game including Canada, and several South American countries such as Paraguay and Uruguay. China may turn to these other suppliers in the future if an end to the current trade war does not happen soon.

But what about the short term? In the short term China may simply have to continue buying US soybeans (which it halted temporarily). However, China will find itself in a buyer’s market because soybean prices have dropped 20% since May 2018, and prices are at a 10-year low. (China could also suspend its 25% tariff temporarily to meet the shortfall of beans, and then re-impose it when supplies were met.)

What is more problematic for both parties is the long-term situation surrounding the trade in soybeans. China will move to upgrade its own soybean production and source its soybeans from other producers in the world including the ones mentioned above.

For the US farmer, there is the real chance that the United States will be branded an “unreliable supplier” and the Chinese market, that took decades to cultivate, will be lost for a long time, if not forever.

Photo: Courtesy United Soybean Board via flickr

Liu Qing and the Future of DiDi Chuxing.

                 by David Parmer / Tokyo

40 Year old Liu Qing (Jean Liu), President of DiDi Chuxing oversaw the merger of two competing ride-hailing companies to form the present multi-headed DiDi Chuxing. The home-grown ride-hailing firm drove arch-rival Uber out of China after a bloody battle that saw cash burned on both sides like paper money at a Chinese funeral. Uber went, but other Chinese rivals have since risen up to challenge DiDi.

Beginning in 2015, Jean Liu has overseen the growth and development of a company that reportedly has 500 million users in 400 Chinese cities. Ms. Liu is a computer sciences graduate with a B.S. from prestigious Beijing University and an M.S. from Harvard University. She came to what is now DiDi after a 12-year stint at Goldman Sachs.

Several reasons have been given for DiDi’s success, during Jean Liu’s watch. These include:

  • Scale of operations
  • Efficiency of operations
  • Customer base
  • Local knowledge
  • Long term strategy
  • Comprehensive product range

Moreover, growth and innovation tend to be the hallmarks of a successful CEO, and under Ms. Liu DiDi has grown in terms of services and constantly innovated. DiDi secured a US$1 billion investment from Apple Computers, a move that seems well suited to both parties in terms of long-range gains. DiDi has also recently just spun off its top-of-the-line service DiDi Premier to be an independent company. On the domestic side, DiDi has launched DiDi Foodie and entered into the highly competitive Chinese food-delivery business with outlets in Wu Xi (Shanghai) and Nanjing. Internationally, the company has now started ride-hailing operations in Mexico, and most recently, in Melbourne, Australia.

It would be no mistake to suggest that DiDi is just getting started, and that there is lots more to come. Best to keep an eye out for not just DiDi, but also for the name Jean Liu.

Photo: World Economic Forum via flickr

Mattis Graduation Speech at NWC Spells Out US Policy.

On June 15, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis gave the commencement speech at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport R.I.

Secretary Mattis congratulated the graduates of the one-year course at told them to maintain the important relationships that they had formed during their course of study at NWC to enhance global security. After his opening remarks Mattis stated that the United States faces several challenges going forward:

  • North Korea as an ongoing threat
  • ISIS and its worldwide ambitions and activities
  • Russia and its distain for NATO
  • China that seems to be reverting to Ming Dynasty policy toward its neighbors

Secretary Mattis also mentioned the recently released National Defense Strategy that had three key components:

  • Building a more lethal force
  • Strengthening alliances and building new partnerships
  • Reforming and modernizing the Department of Defense

While this is a relatively short speech, its two sections give direct insight into U.S. thinking regarding both challenges and remedies for U.S. military to move forward. A link to the speech is given below.

(Reading time 7-10 minutes)

Full Remarks by Secretary Mattis via DOD

Photo: US Naval War College via flickr

US Withdrawal From JCPOA – Here’s Why.

Just over a month ago, on May 8, 2018, US President Donald Trump announced the ending of American participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or “Iran nuclear deal.” The following White House fact sheet explains the rationale behind the Trump administration’s reasons for doing so. While there has been much reporting around the US withdrawal, the reasons President Trump thinks this is not only necessary, but also in the best interests of the US and the world have not been clearly stated. This fact sheet makes the reasons for Mr. Trump’s action clear. The document contains three sections:

  • PROTECTING AMERICA FROM A BAD DEAL: President Donald J. Trump is terminating the United States’ participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran and re-imposing sanctions lifted under the deal.
  • IRAN’S BAD FAITH AND BAD ACTIONS: Iran negotiated the JCPOA in bad faith, and the deal gave the Iranian regime too much in exchange for too little.
  • ADDRESSING IRANIAN AGGRESSION: President Trump is committed to ensuring Iran has no possible path to a nuclear weapon and is addressing the threats posed by the regime’s malign activities.           

The link below is to the original document. (Reading time: 7 minutes)

White House Gov. statement

Photo: Dave Stanley via flickr

Modi Keynote Spells Out Peaceful Vision for the Indo-Pacific Region

                    by David Parmer / Tokyo

“Asia of rivalry will hold us all back. Asia of cooperation will shape this century”

On June 1, India’s PM, Narendra Modi delivered the keynote at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue of the 17th Asia Security Summit in Singapore. PM Modi laid out his grand vision for a peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific region. He stressed India’s historical ties with the region going back to ancient times, and he outlined India’s view of the important work being done by the ASEAN nations. Modi’s tone was inclusive, statesman-like, positive, and non-combative. His grand vision stresses cooperation, not confrontation. The full English text is attached below. (Reading Time: 12 minutes.)

________________________________________________

June 01, 2018

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong,
Thank you for your friendship, your leadership of India-Singapore partnership and a better future for the region.
Defence Ministers,
Mr. John Chipman,
Dignitaries and Excellencies,
Namaskar and a very good evening to all of you!

I am pleased to return to a region, known to India since ancient times as सुवर्णभूमि, (the land of gold).

I am also happy to be here in a special year. In a land-mark year of India’s relationship with ASEAN.

In January, we had the unique honour of hosting ten ASEAN leaders on our Republic Day. The ASEAN-India Summit was a testimony of our commitment to ASEAN, and to our Act East policy.

For thousands of years, Indians have turned to the East. Not just to see the Sun rise, but also to pray for its light to spread over the entire world. The human-kind now looks to the Rising East, with the hope to see the promise that this 21st century beholds for the whole world, because the destiny of the world will be deeply influenced by the course of developments in the Indo-Pacific region.

Because, this new age of promise is also caught in shifting plates of global politics and the fault lines of history. I am here to say that the future we seek does not have to be as elusive as Shangri La; that we can shape this region in our collective hopes and aspirations. No where is it more apt to pursue this than in Singapore.This great nation shows us that when the oceans are open, the seas are secure, countries are connected, the rule of law prevails and the region is stable, nations, small and large, prosper as sovereign countries. Free and fearless in their choices.

Singapore also shows that when nations stand on the side of principles, not behind one power or the other, they earn the respect of the world and a voice in international affairs. And, when they embrace diversity at home, they seek an inclusive world outside.

For India, though, Singapore means more. It’s the spirit that unites a lion nation and a lion city.Singapore is our springboard to ASEAN. It has been, for centuries, a gateway for India to the East.For over two thousand years, the winds of monsoons, the currents of seas and the force of human aspirations have built timeless links between India and this region. It was cast in peace and friendship, religion and culture, art and commerce, language and literature. These human links have lasted, even as the tides of politics and trade saw their ebb and flow.

Over the past three decades, we have re-claimed that heritage to restore our role and relationships in the region.For India, no region now receives as much attention as this. And, for good reasons.

Oceans had an important place in Indian thinking since pre-Vedic times. Thousands of years ago, the Indus Valley Civilisation as well as Indian peninsula had maritime trade. Oceans and Varuna – the Lord of all Waters – find a prominent place in the world’s oldest books- the Vedas. In ancient Puranas, written thousands of years ago, the geographical definition of India is with reference to the seas: उत्तरों यत समुद्रस्य meaning, the land which lies to the north of the seas.

Lothal, in my home state Gujarat, was among the world’s oldest ports. Even today there are remains of a dock. No wonder Gujaratis are enterprising and travel widely even today! The Indian Ocean has shaped much of India’s history. It now holds the key to our future. The ocean carries 90% of India’s trade and our energy sources. It is also the life line of global commerce. The Indian Ocean connects regions of diverse cultures and different levels of peace and prosperity. It also now bears ships of major powers.Both raise concerns of stability and contest.

To the East, the Malacca Strait and South China Sea connect India to the Pacific and to most of our major partners – ASEAN, Japan, Republic of Korea, China and the Americas.Our trade in the region is growing rapidly. And, a significant part of our overseas investments flow in this direction. ASEAN alone accounts for over 20%.

Our interests in the region are vast, and our engagement is deep. In the Indian Ocean region, our relationships are becoming stronger. We are also helping build economic capabilities and improve maritime security for our friends and partners.We promote collective security through forums like Indian Ocean Naval Symposium.

We are advancing a comprehensive agenda of regional co-operation through Indian Ocean Rim Association. And, we also work with partners beyond the Indian Ocean Region to ensure that the global transit routes remain peaceful and free for all.

Three years ago, in Mauritius, I described our vision in one word – Sagar, which means ocean in Hindi. And, Sagar stands for Security and Growth for All in the Region and, that is the creed we follow to our East now even more vigorously through our Act East Policy by seeking to join India, especially her East and North-East, with our land and maritime partners to the east.

South-east Asia is our neighbour by land and sea.With each Southeast Asian country, we have growing political, economic and defence ties. With ASEAN, from dialogue partners, we have become strategic partners over the course of 25 years. We pursue our relations through annual summits and 30 dialogue mechanisms. But even more through a shared vision for the region, and the comfort and familiarity of our old links.

We are active participants in ASEAN-led institutions like East Asia Summit, A.D.M.M. Plus and A.R.F. We are part of BIMSTEC and Mekong-Ganga Economic Corridor – a bridge between South and Southeast Asia.

Our ties with Japan – from economic to strategic – have been completely transformed. It is a partnership of great substance and purpose that is a corner-stone of India’s Act East Policy. There is a strong momentum in our cooperation with Republic of Korea. And, there is a fresh energy in our partnerships with Australia, as also New Zealand.

With several of our partners, we meet in formats of three or more.More than three years ago, I landed at dawn in Fiji to start a successful new phase of engagement with Pacific Island Nations. The meetings of the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation, or FIPIC, have bridged the distance of geography through shared interests and action.

Beyond East and Southeast Asia, our partnerships are strong and growing.It is a measure of our strategic autonomy that India’s Strategic Partnership, with Russia, has matured to be special and privileged.

Ten days ago in an informal summit at Sochi, President Putin and I shared our views on the need for a strong multi-polar world order for dealing with the challenges of our times. At the same time, India’s global strategic partnership with the United States has overcome the hesitations of history and continues to deepen across the extraordinary breadth of our relationship.It has assumed new significance in the changing world. And, an important pillar of this partnership is our shared vision of an open, stable, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific Region. No other relationship of India has as many layers as our relations with China. We are the world’s two most populous countries and among the fastest growing major economies. Our cooperation is expanding. Trade is growing. And, we have displayed maturity and wisdom in managing issues and ensuring a peaceful border.

In April, a two-day informal Summit with President Xi helped us cement our understanding that strong and stable relations between our two nations are an important factor for global peace and progress. I firmly believe that, Asia and the world will have a better future when India and China work together in trust and confidence, sensitive to each other’s interests.

India has a growing partnership with Africa, propelled through mechanisms such as India-Africa Forum Summits. At its core are cooperation based on Africa’s requirements, and a history of warmth and mutual respect.

Friends,

Coming back to our region, India’s growing engagement is accompanied by deeper economic and defence cooperation. We have more trade agreements in this part of the world than in any other. We have Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements with Singapore, Japan and South Korea.

We have Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN and Thailand. And, we are now actively participating in concluding the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. I have just paid my first visit to Indonesia, India’s neighbour 90 nautical miles close, and not 90 nautical miles apart.

My friend President Widodo and I upgraded India-Indonesia relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Among other shared interests, we have a common vision for maritime cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. On way from Indonesia, I stopped over briefly in Malaysia to meet one of ASEAN’s most senior leaders, Prime Minister Mahathir.

Friends,

India Armed Forces, especially our Navy, are building partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region for peace and security, as well as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. They train, exercise and conduct goodwill missions across the region. For example, with Singapore, we have the longest un-interrupted naval exercise, which is in its twenty fifth year now.

We will start a new tri-lateral exercise with Singapore soon and we hope to extend it to other ASEAN countries. We work with partners like Vietnam to build mutual capabilities. India conducts Malabar Exercise with the United States and Japan. A number of regional partners join in India’s Exercise Milan in the Indian Ocean, and participate in RIMPAC in the Pacific.

We are active in the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia – in this very city. Distinguished members of the audience, Back home, our principal mission is transforming India to a New India by 2022, when Independent India will be 75 years young.

We will sustain growth of 7.5 to 8% per year. As our economy grows, our global and regional integration will increase. A nation of over 800 million youth knows that their future will be secured not just by the scale of India’s economy, but also by the depth of global engagement. More than any where else, our ties will deepen and our presence will grow in the region. But, the future we seek to build needs a stable bedrock of peace. And, this is far from certain.

There are shifts in global power, change in the character of global economy and daily disruption in technology. The foundations of the global order appear shaken. And, the future looks less certain. For all our progress, we live on the edge of uncertainty, of unsettled questions and unresolved disputes; contests and claims; and clashing visions and competing models.

We see growing mutual insecurity and rising military expenditure; internal dislocations turning into external tensions; and new fault lines in trade and competition in the global commons. Above all, we see assertion of power over re-course to international norms. In the midst of all this, there are challenges that touch us all, including the un-ending threat of terrorism and extremism. This is a world of inter-dependent fortunes and failures. And, no nation can shape and secure it on its own.

It is a world that summons us to rise above divisions and competition to work together. Is that possible ?

Yes. It is possible. I see ASEAN as an example and inspiration. ASEAN represents the greatest level of diversity of culture, religion, language, governance and prosperity of any grouping in the world.

It was born when Southeast Asia was a frontline of global competition, a theatre of a brutal war and a region of uncertain nations. Yet, today, ASEAN has united ten countries behind a common purpose. ASEAN unity is essential for a stable future for this region.

And, each of us must support it, not weaken it. I have attended four East Asia Summits. I am convinced that ASEAN can integrate the broader region. In many ways, ASEAN is already leading the process. In doing so, it has laid the foundation of the Indo-Pacific Region. The East Asia Summit and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership – two important initiatives of ASEAN – embrace this geography.

Friends,

The Indo-Pacific is a natural region. It is also home to a vast array of global opportunities and challenges. I am increasingly convinced with each passing day that the destinies of those of us who live in the region are linked. Today, we are being called to rise above divisions and competition to work together.

The ten countries of South East Asia connect the two great oceans in both the geographical and civilizational sense. Inclusiveness, openness and ASEAN centrality and unity, therefore, lie at the heart of the new Indo-Pacific. India does not see the Indo-Pacific Region as a strategy or as a club of limited members.

Nor as a grouping that seeks to dominate. And by no means do we consider it as directed against any country. A geographical definition, as such, cannot be. India’s vision for the Indo-Pacific Region is, therefore, a positive one. And, it has many elements.

One,

It stands for a free, open, inclusive region, which embraces us all in a common pursuit of progress and prosperity. It includes all nations in this geography as also others beyond who have a stake in it.

Two,

Southeast Asia is at its centre. And, ASEAN has been and will be central to its future. That is the vision that will always guide India, as we seek to cooperate for an architecture for peace and security in this region.

Three,

We believe that our common prosperity and security require us to evolve, through dialogue, a common rules-based order for the region. And, it must equally apply to all individually as well as to the global commons. Such an order must believe in sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as equality of all nations, irrespective of size and strength. These rules and norms should be based on the consent of all, not on the power of the few. This must be based on faith in dialogue, and not dependence on force. It also means that when nations make international commitments, they must uphold them. This is the foundation of India’s faith in multilateralism and regionalism; and, of our principled commitment to rule of law.

Four,

We should all have equal access as a right under international law to the use of common spaces on sea and in the air that would require freedom of navigation, unimpeded commerce and peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law. When we all agree to live by that code, our sea lanes will be pathways to prosperity and corridors of peace. We will also be able to come together to prevent maritime crimes, preserve marine ecology, protect against disasters and prosper from blue economy.

Five,

This region, and all of us, have benefitted from globalisation. Indian food is among the best examples of these benefits! But, there is growing protectionism – in goods and in services. Solutions cannot be found behind walls of protection, but in embracing change. What we seek is a level playing field for all. India stands for open and stable international trade regime. We will also support rule-based, open, balanced and stable trade environment in the Indo-Pacific Region, which lifts up all nations on the tide of trade and investment. That is what we expect from Regional Comprehnsive Economic Partnership. RCEP must be comprehensive, as the name suggests, and the principles declared. It must have a balance among trade, investment and services.

Six,

Connectivity is vital. It does more than enhance trade and prosperity. It unites a region. India has been at the crossroads for centuries. We understand the benefits of connectivity. There are many connectivity initiatives in the region. If these have to succeed, we must not only build infrastructure, we must also build bridges of trust. And for that, these initiatives must be based on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, consultation, good governance, transparency, viability and sustainability. They must empower nations, not place them under impossible debt burden. They must promote trade, not strategic competition. On these principles, we are prepared to work with everyone. India is doing its part, by itself and in partnership with others like Japan – in South Asia and Southeast Asia, in the Indian Ocean, Africa, West Asia and beyond. And, we are important stake-holders in New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Finally,

All of this is possible, if we do not return to the age of great power rivalries I have said this before: Asia of rivalry will hold us all back. Asia of cooperation will shape this century. So, each nation must ask itself: Are its choices building a more united world, or forcing new divisions? It is a responsibility that both existing and rising powers have. Competition is normal. But, contests must not turn into conflict; differences must not be allowed to become disputes. Distinguished members of the audience, It is normal to have partnerships on the basis of shared values and interests. India, too, has many in the region and beyond.

We will work with them, individually or in formats of three or more, for a stable and peaceful region. But, our friendships are not alliances of containment. We choose the side of principles and values, of peace and progress, not one side of a divide or the other. Our relationships across the world speak for our position.

And, when we can work together, we will be able to meet the real challenges of our times. We will be able to protect our planet. We will be able to ensure non-proliferation We will be able to secure our people from terrorism and cyber threats.

In conclusion, let me say this again: India’s own engagement in the Indo-Pacific Region – from the shores of Africa to that of the Americas – will be inclusive. We are in-heritors of Vedanta philosophy that believes in essential oneness of all, and celebrates unity in diversity एकम सत्यम, विप्राः बहुदावदंति (Truth is one, the learned speak of it in many ways). That is the foundation of our civilizational ethos – of pluralism, co-existence, open-ness and dialogue. The ideals of democracy that define us as a nation also shape the way we engage the world.

So, it translates into five S in Hindi: सम्मान (respect); सम्वाद (dialogue); सह्योग (cooperation), शांति (peace), and समृद्धि (prosperity). It’s easy to learn these words! So, we will engage with the world in peace, with respect, through dialogue and absolute commitment to international law.

We will promote a democratic and rules-based international order, in which all nations, small and large, thrive as equal and sovereign We will work with others to keep our seas, space and airways free and open; our nations secure from terrorism; and our cyber space free from disruption and conflict. We will keep our economy open and our engagement transparent. We will share our resources, markets and prosperity with our friends and partners. We will seek a sustainable future for our planet, as through the new International Solar Alliance together with France and other partners.

This is how we wish ourselves and our partners to proceed in this vast region and beyond. The ancient wisdom of the region is our common heritage. Lord Buddha’s message of peace and compassion has connected us all. Together, we have contributed much to human civilisation. And, we have been through the devastation of war and the hope of peace. We have seen the limits of power. And, we have seen the fruits of cooperation.

This world is at a crossroad There are temptations of the worst lessons of history. But, there is also a path of wisdom. It summons us to a higher purpose: to rise above a narrow view of our interests and recognise that each of us can serve our interests better when we work together as equals in the larger good of all nations. I am here to urge all to take that path.

Thank you.
Thank you very much.

*****

 Photo and text: Narendra Modi.in
 

Trump Nominates Admiral Harry Harris as Ambassador to Seoul

                by David Parmer / Tokyo

On May 18 Admiral Harry B. Harris was nominated to be US ambassador to the Republic of Korea. Harris was slated to become US ambassador to Australia, but Korea apparently took precedence in the mind of the Trump administration and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Admiral Harris, a 1978 graduate of the US Naval Academy, has had a long and distinguished career as both a sailor and an aviator. His last command was head of the Pacific Command, a job that he turned over to Admiral Phil Davidson. Harris was said to be a hawk on China, and his successor, Davidson, is thought to be the same.

The post of ambassador to Korea has been vacant since 2017, as have many diplomatic jobs. Whether this is a strategy of the Trump administration or simply their inability to get qualified people to fill important jobs is unclear. It has been reported that Republican senator Bob Corker turned down the Australia job citing work still to be done in the senate. Corker is slated to retire in the near future, and perhaps he does not want to sully his reputation by working for the present administration.

It is unlikely that any “smoking gun” will be found in Harris’ background by congress, and it is likely that he will be confirmed as ambassador. Once again, the undisciplined Donald Trump has nominated a disciplined military man to an important post. Admiral Harris will bring intelligence, experience, and leadership to the job. Let’s hope that Admiral Harris can serve out his term as ambassador in one of the world’s hottest hot spots without suffering damage to his sterling reputation.

 

 

Photo: US Pacific Fleet via flickr

Speaking Truth To Power – “A Higher Loyalty” by James Comey

                      by David Parmer / Tokyo

For the last year and a half the world has seen America at its worst in the person of Donald Trump and his administration of “B-Team” yes-men and yes-women. It is important for the world  to understand that the United States has men and women of intelligence, sophistication, wit, competence and integrity who are again ready to step forward once Donald Trump is soundly defeated in an election, or is impeached. Former FBI Director James Comey is such a man.

In his recently published memoir, A Higher Loyalty–Truth Lies and Leadership, Director Comey lays out a timeline of the events that made him the man his is. Starting at a childhood incident where he and his brother were held at gunpoint by an intruder, he takes us through his early life of being bullied and bullying. He outlines his career working for the US government at the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York where he prosecuted Mafia bosses.

From 1996-2001 he worked as Managing Assistant US Attorney at the US Attorney’s office for the Eastern District of Virginia. He then went on to be involved in investigationg the Whitewater scandal involving then President Bill Clinton. Comey rose steadily in the US government, and moved up to be United States Attorney for The Southern District of New York where he prosecuted TV personality Martha Stewart for securities fraud and lying to the FBI. During the second Bush administration, Comey became active in opposing domestic surveillance by the National Security Agency, and was also opposed to “enhanced interrogation” which is basically torture by another name. Comey left government service from 2005 to 2013 and worked in the private sector.

In 2013 James Comey was appointed as the 7th Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation by President Barack Obama and continued to serve in that job until he was fired without warning or ceremony by Donald Trump on May 9, 2017 on manufactured and baseless allegations of poor performance. 

During the 4 years that he was FBI director, Comey not only handled high-profile cases such as the Hillary Clinton e-mail debacle, and the probe in Russia’s meddling in the 2016 US election.

Shortly after Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2017, Trump tried to court Comey and, in private meetings, tried to intimidate him and force him to get on the same page with the Trump administration’s policies. Comey refused to pledge loyalty to Trump. Once he told Trump that he was wrong about his saying that America was as murderous as Russia, Comey ceased to exist as a possible ally for Trump.

Throughout his career, James Comey chose to support the law and speak the truth as he saw it. When he was made FBI director, Comey decided that the thing he wanted was ethical leaders in the Bureau. Specifically:

“I told the organization that I had an ambitious goal: the FBI would one day be the government’s premier leadership factory…”The FBI would supply America’s corporate leaders in the future, and

“We would teach that great leaders are

 (1) people of integrity and decency;

(2) confident enough to be humble;

(3) both kind and tough;

(4) transparent; and

(5) aware that we all seek meaning in work.

 We would also teach them (6) that what they say is important, but what they do is far more important, because their people are always watching them. In short, we would demand and develop ethical leaders.”  (Pg. 130, A Higher Loyalty, Kindle edition) [Emphasis added].

Finally, the Epilogue to his book, Director Comey makes the following damming indictment of Donald Trump:

“Donald’ Trump’s presidency threatens much of what is good in this nation. We all bear responsibility for the deeply flawed choices put before voters during the 2016 election, and our country is paying a high price: this president is unethical and untethered to truth and institutional values.His leadership is transactional, ego driven and about personal loyalty...” (Pg. 275, A Higher Loyalty, Kindle edition) [Emphasis added].

To get a real insight into the policy and the tone of the Trump administration, and to get a sense of what integrity and ethical leadership is, James Comey’s book is a “must read.”

 

 

 

 

 

The Iran Nuclear Deal – All In Vain?

                   by David Parmer / Tokyo

The above photo shows then Secretary of State John Kerry addressing reporters on July 14, 2015 in Vienna and announcing that, after years of arduous negotiations, an agreement had been reached between the West and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program. This agreement officially knows as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has since become to be known as “the Iran nuclear deal.”  

Certification for the JCPOA is due on May 12, 2018, and Donald Trump may decide to pull the U.S. out of the deal. Trump has been attacking the agreement since he was running for the presidency in 2015. In his typical “you wait and see” manner he has not said clearly what he will do, but all signs and hints indicate that he will not certify the agreement this time.

Trump has his allies on this including his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, National Security Advisor John Bolton and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The shared narrative is that this is a bad deal, and that it must be fixed or re-negotiated and several unrelated issues (such as Iran’s missile program and Iran’s behavior in its region and in Syria) must be added on to the agreement. One more “requirement” to a new deal would be the inspection of Iran’s military bases.

Iran’s answer to this call for re-negotiation is a firm and unequivocal “no.” In an interview with US network NPR, on April 24, 2018 Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said:

“I believe Europe has said that they are not prepared to renegotiate this agreement and I think it’s very prudent, because anybody who participated in the negotiation of this deal would tell you that opening this package would be tantamount to opening a Pandora’s box, and we’ll never be able to close it.”

The question now is whether there is any “plan B” possible or available to the parties to the agreement. The “Europeans” mean France, Germany, Great Britain, and the EU. Other parties are China, Russia, Iran, and the USA. If the US pulls out of the agreement where does that leave everyone else? There seem to be a couple possible scenarios.

1) The Europeans and Russia and China continue to move forward without the US and the JCPOA continues without the US. Pulling out of the deal would mean that the US would re-impose sanctions in order to get Iran to the table regarding its missile program and its support of its clients in Yemen and Syria. It is doubtful that Iran would be in any mood to negotiate these issues or to change its position in any way.

2) Iran could pull out of the deal completely. No compromise with the Russians, Chinese or Europeans. A unilateral (actually bi-lateral) withdrawal. And while Iran has repeatedly stated that it has no intention to build nuclear weapons, this might just push them over the edge. They might find themselves in the same mental space as the North Koreans: surrounded by enemies intent on destroying them, the only answer is to produce and maintain nuclear weapons.

In either of these two scenarios, the Trump-Israel-Saudi coalition might just decide to act preemptively by attacking Iran to effect regime change. They might start by bombing or attacking Iran’s nuclear sites to “prevent” Iran from getting a bomb to put on their missiles. This would inflame the Middle East, lead to war, and have a massive negative effect on the world economy.

Whatever happens regarding the May 12 certification will not be good. The best case scenario would be for the US to sign on again for another period, but this is not likely to happen as Trump has staked his credibility with his followers on either getting what he wants (impossible) or pulling the US out of the agreement.

A cynic might say that since Trump won’t get his war in Korea, he will have to settle for Iran. Let us hope that such is not the case.

Iran FM Zarif’s interview on NPR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Photo: U.S. Department of State via flickr

Truth, Lies, and James Comey

 

By Bill Lee

James Comey, the former FBI director fired by Donald Trump, is a unique public figure in America for being reviled by both liberal Democrats and Trumpian Republicans. He’s hated of course by Clinton Democrats for announcing 11 days before the presidential election that the FBI had reopened its investigation into Clinton’s e-mails, thus generating enough adverse publicity against Clinton to tip the election to Trump, or so Clintonites believe. Trumpians hate Comey because he revealed that Trump tried to make him end the FBI’s investigation into Michael Flynn, that, and his subsequent firing, possible causes for obstruction of justice charges against Trump,

So who is James Comey? In his recently published book, A Higher Loyalty: Truth, Lies, and Leadership, Comey portrays himself as an apolitical civil servant whose only interest is preserving the integrity of the FBI and the values at the core of the American enterprise. He prosecuted Martha Stewart for insider trading because she lied, and resisted the George W. Bush administration’s torture policy because it was inhumane. He announced the reopening of the Clinton e-mail investigation because concealing it would have been unethical.

Comey can be a good story teller. His narratives describing his youth, career as a prosecutor, and defense of the then Attorney General John Ashcroft as he lay seriously ill in a hospital bed from the attempts of Bush administration officials to make him sign an authorization for continuing their torture policy are compelling and read well. He does less well with his sermons about the majesty of the FBI. However, Comey comes across as quite believable. Despite his showmanship, which he himself recognizes, Comey seems like a pleasant, honest fellow, whose accounts of his meetings with Trump are surely more believable than Trump’s denials. There is much to recommend in the book, not the least of which are his descriptions of Trump’s manic, egocentric, stream-of-consciousness discourse. The key theme in the book is leadership, what it is and what it isn’t. Comey makes clear that Trump is the antithesis of a true leader. Comey prides himself on his leadership of the FBI; don’t be surprised if he tries for a run at public office as an independent.

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Photo by Daily Brian via Flickr

Who Wins, China or the US?

By Bill Lee

Is a trade war between China and the United States looming? For all his switching  of positions, Donald Trump has been very consistent for decades in decrying America’s trade imbalances, which he views as unfair to America and a lessening of its strength. In the area of tariffs, liberal Democrats are with Trump because the tariffs, presumably, protect American blue-collar workers. Republicans like free, no-tariffs trade. Rather than a battle between liberals and conservatives, though, right-wing nativist and Trump supporter Steve Bannon sees this as a battle between “globalists” and “nationalists.”

The debate now is about which side would win a trade war, the United States or China. Those who claim China would win cite the likely loss of lucrative value-added exports from America to China such as Boeing jets or iphones as well as agricultural products like soybeans and beef. Walmart products like clothing and electrical goods would also become more expensive for hard-pressed American consumers.

Those who claim America would win a trade war with China assert as reasons the great dependence China has on the US market, the fragility of the Chinese economy relative to the US economy, and the greater size of the American economy. Those opposed to those views say that China can simply sell its electronic and other mid-tech goods to developing regions like India, Latin America, and Africa. 

The key point seems to be that China could weather and possibly prevail in a trade war with the US but that it would require a redirection of Chinese exports, which will be feasible in the long run but hard work in the short term. In other words, rather than risk a trade war, China could simply make a few concessions to the United States about its own tariffs on American goods, knowing full well that it will more than make up for any short-term temporary losses in the long term.

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