President Obama To Visit Hiroshima in May

The White House announced on Tuesday that President Barack Obama would visit Hiroshima in May when he is in Japan for the G-7 summit. Obama will be the first president to do so. News reports say he is not there to offer an apology, but to lay out a vision of a world without nuclear weapons. It is also worth remembering that Mr. Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009 for, among other things, promoting nuclear nonproliferation.

So what do you think? How important is this visit? Will it make a difference? Should Mr. Obama apologize to the Japanese nation? Please log in and give us your thoughts on this topic.

Photo: Travis Wise via flickr

Boots On The Ground in Syria

                            by David Parmer

“Boots on the ground” (i.e. one sovereign country’s military forces operating in another sovereign country’s territory) is not always the first option of choice in geopolitics. A major power like the U.S. or Russia can influence a situation by supplying money, weapons, advice and intelligence support to a client or allied state without putting its own troops in harm’s way.

In some cases, “boots on the ground” is a quick in and out–it could be a response to  something like a hostage situation or even a natural disaster. “Boots on the ground” may start off small, but there is always a chance for escalation.

Both the U.S. and Russia have memories of situations that began simply enough but then turned tragic. The U.S. had its Vietnam experience where it lost 58,000 troops, and the Russians had their Afghan experience where they lost 14,000 troops. The villain here is a concept known as “mission creep” where things start out small but escalate.

Which is all background for an announcement made by U.S. President Barack Obama on April 25 in Germany that an additional 250 American Special Operations Forces (SOF) would be sent to Syria as trainers and advisors. In October 2015, an initial 50 SOF personnel were dispatched. There is speculation that gains have been made, and the intention is to keep pressure on Daesh and go forward with the momentum. (Syria is not the only place where American boots are on the ground in the Middle East: there are now 4,000+ U.S. personnel in Iraq.)

Russia, despite its claims of leaving the Syrian conflict has SOF of its own in Syria. The Washington Post reported on March 29 that Russian Spetsnaz operators worked with Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah fighters to capture the city of Palmyra from Daesh.

The Post also reports that the mission of Russian forces is similar to that performed by U.S. SOF operators, i.e. training and targeting, with one exception–that Russian SOF go into battle with their clients.

There are reports on a Russian officer being killed in the battle for Palmyra by calling in air support when surrounded by Daesh fighters.

And what is ahead? It is hard to say. The coalition says it is pressing the militants hard and taking the fight to them. The real question is if the people of the U.S. and Russia are willing to see their soldiers die or be held captive. For bullets fly both ways, and even the bad guys have a good day now and then. Is there commitment in the U.S. and Russia to see this to the end regardless of what it takes?

Please log in and let us know your thoughts.

Image Photo: U.S. Department of Defense via flickr (Public Domain)

Cuba: The Old Men And The Sea

                               by David Parmer

In 1954 Ernest Miller Hemingway was awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature for his short novel The Old Man and the Sea. The story tells of Santiago, an old Cuban fisherman who has gone 84 days without catching a fish. The fisherman goes out one more time in the hopes that his luck will change, and it does. He hooks a huge marlin and after a long battle with the fish he heads back to shore. Along the way he is attacked by sharks numerous times. He does his best, but finally the sharks prevail, and he lands with only the head, tail and backbone of the great fish. The sharks have won.

Surely the aging leaders of Cuba’s Communist party know Hemingway’s story and maybe, subconsciously, they could see a parallel between the fish being attacked by sharks and the threat of Cuba’s revolution being eaten away by “the empire” and greedy capitalists.

It could be so, for the Seventh Congress of the Communist Party gave little ground in the area that the Chinese call “reform and opening up.” This Congress, held from April 16–19 passed few “reforms” and did not even tip its hat to “opening up.”

Well before the conference, former President Fidel Castro set the tone in his open letter to Barack Obama on March 27 published in the Granma newspaper. President Raul Castro, while noting the slow implementation of measures mandated at the last congress five years ago, echoed brother Fidel’s sentiments. He clearly stated than any reform measures, past or future, do not mean a return to Capitalism.

There was no leadership change at the Seventh Congress, and no new economic or political reforms. Fidel Castro hinted that this might be his last appearance at a party congress, and Raul Castro oversaw the introduction of age limits that will retire older members. For the time being, the older generation will oversee the transition to a younger politbureau. Five new members were elected this time.

So how will the transition go? The hardline revolutionaries who poured into Havana on January 1,1959, including the Castro brothers will disappear. The revolution itself will change. The Chinese and Vietnamese models (made brief reference to by Raul Castro during the conference) have shown that a vibrant economy can co-exist with a one-party Communist system. But the present leadership seems no more enamored of these models than of Mr. Obama’s offer for a new relationship made the preceding month. There are many roads open for Cuba including ones that lead to the fate of the former Communist states of the Soviet Union and East Germany.

Vigorous management and a fresh vision for the future of the country, the society and the economy could make the difference, but when the leadership seems to focus  only  on sharks, and not opportunities, it is problematic.

What do you think? Please log in and give us your thoughts.

Photo: M.G.N. via flickr (Cropped for size)

In China: Uber vs Didi Heats Up

Not so long ago ride sharing was nowhere, now it is seemingly everywhere. And one of the places where market share is hotly contested is China. Homegrown Didi Kuaidi faces off against Silicon Valley interloper, megalith Uber to get the RMB of Chinese passengers. Uberfuhrer Travis Kalanick says the company is “sustainably” losing USD $1 billion (DEM 1,714,286,800) in China. Didi, meanwhile, is reportedly raising USD$1.5 billion (DEM 2,571,430,200) in new funding to bring its value to USD$ 25 billion (DEM 42,857,170,000). Worldwide, Uber’s Reich is worth something like USD$ 62.5 billion (DEM 107,142,925,000). Watching this slugfest in real-time, one wonders how it will end, with a win for the home team, a surprise upset by the invader, or a draw with both competitors settling for a big chunk of the market. And who knows “the next new thing” might just catch them both by surprise. Log in and let us know what you think.

Photo: Carlos ZGZ via flickr

Whistleblowers and Leakers–Back In The News

April 3, 2016 might go down in history as one of the most important days in modern journalism. On that day 149 documents were released about the offshore dealings of key business and political leaders and their associates from around the world. The documents were the tip of an enormous data iceberg. They were just some of the 11.5 million documents from a Panama-based corporate services provided named Mossack Fonseca that were leaked to media organizations worldwide.

Clearly, this breach of corporate security by an inside source far exceeds the materials released by Edward Snowden in 2013 in terms of scope and volume. The question here is will this leak (and we do not know the whistleblower except by the pseudonym “John Doe”) change anything? Beyond embarrassment, will there be prosecution, reform, or just a scandal that is forgotten in three months or so? What do you think? Please log in and give us your opinion on this matter.

Photo: Edward Snowden by coolloud via flickr

Hong Kong: Panama Papers Won’t Change Anything: EJInsight

G20 To Meet in Hangzhou in Autumn

China is getting set to host the 2016 G20 summit in its historic former capital of Hangzhou in Zheijiang Province. Hangzhou is becoming known as much for its high-tech companies as for its beautiful scenery and rich history. Internet giant Alibaba Kuidi Dache, Ant Financial and a host of others concentrated in Hangzhou’s industrial parks.

This year’s G20 summit to be held September 4-5 will have as its theme: “Building an innovative, invigorated, interconnected, inclusive world economy.”

On 8 March 2016 China’s Foreign Minister Wang Li spelled out China’s objectives for the coming G20 meeting:

  • To discover new sources of growth through innovation
  • To Inject new momentum into the world economy through reform
  • To open new prospects through development

Throughout the rest of the year RG21 will follow developments leading up to the 2016 G20 summit. If you have any comments or requests, please log in and let us know.

G20 Hangzhou 2016 Website

Some Thoughts on the Current Situation in the DPRK—An Interview with Bill Lee

RG-21 contributor Bill Lee has been a watcher of the goings on in the DPRK for many years. Recently he has turned his attention to China in addition to his main area of interest and specialty which is Japan. This week we caught up with Bill by email to get his take on recent developments in the DPRK.

First sanctions. The greater world community including the United Nations is calling for and applying sanctions on North Korea.  Realistically, Bill, do you think these sanctions have any hope at all of influencing Kim Jung-un or the policy makers in the DPRK?

Sanctions and embargos have been imposed on the DPRK for over half a century but have never worked. Sanctions against South Africa were effective because just about the entire world condemned Pretoria and the white population was a minority. The freezing of Iran’s foreign bank assets was effective because their bank accounts were easily identifiable and the sanctions put a real strain on Iran’s potentially vocal middle class. However, neither of these conditions fit North Korea since Pyongyang’s bank accounts are supposedly more diffuse and hidden, abetted by Chinese banks, and the bulk of the North Korea population is so impoverished they won’t notice more sanctions or will be able to put up with further hardship.

North Korea continues to develop its  nuclear and missile technology. Do you see any scenario where the US, Korea and Japan will say “Enough” and take some pre-emptive action, say a surgical strike on the DPRK?

Certainly the United States would launch a preemptive strike if it were clear that North Korea had an ICBM warming up on the launch pad that intelligence indicated was headed for the US. But absent such an extreme case, it is unlikely — unless Donald Trump becomes president — that the US would launch a preemptive bombing of a nuclear or missile installation because: 1) most nuclear installations are underground in the DPRK and thus difficult to find and destroy, 2) hardware installations can always be rebuilt, and 3) the real danger from the DPRK is not an attack per se but the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology. The US and others fear that North Korea will sell actual nuclear devices or technology to terrorists or rogue states. Thus the US would have to kill all of the North Korean scientists and engineers who are building North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. That would probably be impossible.

Finally, what scenario do you see for the rest of 2016 vis-a-vis the DPRK and the world community?

Despite its bluster the KJU regime will, I think, shift its course to a more serious rebuilding of its economy. The nuclear and missile tests were a display for domestic and foreign audiences, but KJU has effectively shelved the songun “military first” policy and embarked on his byungjin policy of pursuing parallel goals of economic and military development. The convening of the Workers’ Party of Korea Congress in May, the first one in more than 35 years, is an indication that KJU will try to plot a new course from now.

 Thanks Bill for taking the time to answer our questions. If our readers have any questions for Bill or comments, please log in and post them below.

 Photo: Rodong Shinmun DPRK

 

 

 

 

Japan’s Tourist Tsunami

                       by David Parmer

There is an old saying “Be careful of what you ask for—you just might get it.” In the run-up to the Tokyo Olympics, Japan’s government set a target of 20 million tourists by 2020, but in 2015 ( according to a Japan Times report on January 19, 2016) the number of tourists to Japan totaled 19.73 million.

A virtual tidal wave of tourists came to Japan in 2015, and Japan seemed hard pressed to cope with it. The Japanese government is said to be planning to revise its 20 million tourists by 2020 target upward, and the 20 million mark itself may very well be hit in 2016.

So where is the rub? On face value it all seems good. But there is a real question whether a traditionally-insular country like Japan can cope with so many visitors. Japanese TV programs highlight the tourist influx focusing on the “bad manners” of visitors to Tokyo and Kyoto but fail to mention the ¥3.48 trillion that visitors pump into the struggling Japan economy.

And a final question might be how will Japan deal with tourists when the number jumps to close to 30 million/year? It seems that tourists need education on the customs and mores of Japan, but could it also be possible that Japan needs to find some way to deal with this “golden tsunami” that is hitting its shores? Please log in and give us your thoughts.

Photo: Kamakura, Great Buddha. DP.

 

American President’s Message on Lifting of Sanctions On Iran

The following is a speech delivered by Barack Obama, President of the United States on January 17th, 2016 regarding the lifting of sanctions on Iran.

 Here RG21 presents the original text published by the White House. Whenever possible, it is our aim to provide you with source documents, rather than simply a report or analysis. This will enable you to use your own intelligence and instincts to arrive at an informed opinion about world affairs without the filter and bias of the big media organizations. (Reading Time: 9 minutes).

For Immediate Release

Statement by the President on Iran

The Cabinet Room 

10:48 A.M. EST

     THE PRESIDENT:  This is a good day, because, once again, we’re seeing what’s possible with strong American diplomacy. 

As I said in my State of the Union address, ensuring the security of the United States and the safety of our people demands a smart, patient and disciplined approach to the world.  That includes our diplomacy with the Islamic Republic of Iran.  For decades, our differences with Iran meant that our governments almost never spoke to each other.  Ultimately, that did not advance America’s interests.  Over the years, Iran moved closer and closer to having the ability to build a nuclear weapon.  But from Presidents Franklin Roosevelt to John F. Kennedy to Ronald Reagan, the United States has never been afraid to pursue diplomacy with our adversaries.  And as President, I decided that a strong, confident America could advance our national security by engaging directly with the Iranian government.

We’ve seen the results.  Under the nuclear deal that we, our allies and partners reached with Iran last year, Iran will not get its hands on a nuclear bomb.  The region, the United States, and the world will be more secure.  As I’ve said many times, the nuclear deal was never intended to resolve all of our differences with Iran.  But still, engaging directly with the Iranian government on a sustained basis, for the first time in decades, has created a unique opportunity — a window — to try to resolve important issues.  And today, I can report progress on a number of fronts.

First, yesterday marked a milestone in preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.  Iran has now fulfilled key commitments under the nuclear deal.  And I want to take a moment to explain why this is so important. 

Over more than a decade, Iran had moved ahead with its nuclear program, and, before the deal, it had installed nearly 20,000 centrifuges that can enrich uranium for a nuclear bomb.  Today, Iran has removed two-thirds of those machines.  Before the deal, Iran was steadily increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium — enough for up to 10 nuclear bombs.  Today, more than 98 percent of that stockpile has been shipped out of Iran — meaning Iran now doesn’t have enough material for even one bomb. Before, Iran was nearing completion of a new reactor capable of producing plutonium for a bomb.  Today, the core of that reactor has been pulled out and filled with concrete so it cannot be used again. 

Before the deal, the world had relatively little visibility into Iran’s nuclear program.  Today, international inspectors are on the ground, and Iran is being subjected to the most comprehensive, intrusive inspection regime ever negotiated to monitor a nuclear program.  Inspectors will monitor Iran’s key nuclear facilities 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.  For decades to come, inspectors will have access to Iran’s entire nuclear supply chain.  In other words, if Iran tries to cheat — if they try to build a bomb covertly — we will catch them. 

So the bottom line is this.  Whereas Iran was steadily expanding its nuclear program, we have now cut off every single path that Iran could have used to build a bomb.  Whereas it would have taken Iran two to three months to break out with enough material to rush to a bomb, we’ve now extended that breakout time to a year — and with the world’s unprecedented inspections and access to Iran’s program, we’ll know if Iran ever tries to break out. 

Now that Iran’s actions have been verified, it can begin to receive relief from certain nuclear sanctions and gain access to its own money that had been frozen.  And perhaps most important of all, we’ve achieved this historic progress through diplomacy, without resorting to another war in the Middle East. 

I want to also point out that by working with Iran on this nuclear deal, we were better able to address other issues.  When our sailors in the Persian Gulf accidentally strayed into Iranian waters that could have sparked a major international incident.  Some folks here in Washington rushed to declare that it was the start of another hostage crisis.  Instead, we worked directly with the Iranian government and secured the release of our sailors in less than 24 hours.

This brings me to a second major development — several Americans unjustly detained by Iran are finally coming home.  In some cases, these Americans faced years of continued detention.  And I’ve met with some of their families.  I’ve seen their anguish, how they ache for their sons and husbands.  I gave these families my word — I made a vow — that we would do everything in our power to win the release of their loved ones.  And we have been tireless.  On the sidelines of the nuclear negotiations, our diplomats at the highest level, including Secretary Kerry, used every meeting to push Iran to release our Americans.  I did so myself, in my conversation with President Rouhani.  After the nuclear deal was completed, the discussions between our governments accelerated.  Yesterday, these families finally got the news that they have been waiting for. 

Jason Rezaian is coming home.  A courageous journalist for The Washington Post, who wrote about the daily lives and hopes of the Iranian people, he’s been held for a year and a half.  He embodies the brave spirit that gives life to the freedom of the press.  Jason has already been reunited with his wife and mom.

Pastor Saeed Abedini is coming home.  Held for three and half years, his unyielding faith has inspired people around the world in the global fight to uphold freedom of religion.  Now, Pastor Abedini will return to his church and community in Idaho. 

Amir Hekmati is coming home.  A former sergeant in the Marine Corps, he’s been held for four and a half years.  Today, his parents and sisters are giving thanks in Michigan.

Two other Americans unjustly detained by Iran have also been released — Nosratollah Khosravi-Roodsari and Matthew Trevithick, an Iranian — who was in Iran as a student.  Their cases were largely unknown to the world.  But when Americans are freed and reunited with their families, that’s something that we can all celebrate. 

So I want to thank my national security team — especially Secretary Kerry; Susan Rice, my National Security Advisor; Brett McGurk; Avril Haines; Ben Rhodes — our whole team worked tirelessly to bring our Americans home, to get this work done.  And I want to thank the Swiss government, which represents our interests in Iran, for their critical assistance. 

And meanwhile, Iran has agreed to deepen our coordination as we work to locate Robert Levinson — missing from Iran for more than eight years.  Even as we rejoice in the safe return of others, we will never forget about Bob.  Each and every day, but especially today, our hearts are with the Levinson family, and we will not rest until their family is whole again. 

In a reciprocal humanitarian gesture, six Iranian–Americans and one Iranian serving sentences or awaiting trial in the United States are being granted clemency.  These individuals were not charged with terrorism or any violent offenses.  They’re civilians, and their release is a one-time gesture to Iran given the unique opportunity offered by this moment and the larger circumstances at play.  And it reflects our willingness to engage with Iran to advance our mutual interests, even as we ensure the national security of the United States.

So, nuclear deal implemented.  American families reunited.  The third piece of this work that we got done this weekend involved the United States and Iran resolving a financial dispute that dated back more than three decades.  Since 1981, after our nations severed diplomatic relations, we’ve worked through a international tribunal to resolve various claims between our countries.  The United States and Iran are now settling a longstanding Iranian government claim against the United States government.  Iran will be returned its own funds, including appropriate interest, but much less than the amount Iran sought. 

For the United States, this settlement could save us billions of dollars that could have been pursued by Iran.  So there was no benefit to the United States in dragging this out.  With the nuclear deal done, prisoners released, the time was right to resolve this dispute as well.

Of course, even as we implement the nuclear deal and welcome our Americans home, we recognize that there remain profound differences between the United States and Iran.  We remain steadfast in opposing Iran’s destabilizing behavior elsewhere, including its threats against Israel and our Gulf partners, and its support for violent proxies in places like Syria and Yemen.  We still have sanctions on Iran for its violations of human rights, for its support of terrorism, and for its ballistic missile program.  And we will continue to enforce these sanctions, vigorously.  Iran’s recent missile test, for example, was a violation of its international obligations.  And as a result, the United States is imposing sanctions on individuals and companies working to advance Iran’s ballistic missile program.  And we are going to remain vigilant about it.  We’re not going to waver in the defense of our security or that of our allies and partners.    

But I do want to once again speak directly to the Iranian people.  Yours is a great civilization, with a vibrant culture that has so much to contribute to the world — in commerce, and in science and the arts.  For decades, your government’s threats and actions to destabilize your region have isolated Iran from much of the world.  And now our governments are talking with one another.  Following the nuclear deal, you — especially young Iranians — have the opportunity to begin building new ties with the world.  We have a rare chance to pursue a new path — a different, better future that delivers progress for both our peoples and the wider world.  That’s the opportunity before the Iranian people.  We need to take advantage of that.  

And to my fellow Americans, today, we’re united in welcoming home sons and husbands and brothers who, in lonely prison cells, have endured an absolute nightmare.  But they never gave in and they never gave up.  At long last, they can stand tall and breathe deep the fresh air of freedom. 

As a nation, we face real challenges, around the world and here at home.  Many of them will not be resolved quickly or easily.  But today’s progress — Americans coming home, an Iran that has rolled back its nuclear program and accepted unprecedented monitoring of that program — these things are a reminder of what we can achieve when we lead with strength and with wisdom; with courage and resolve and patience.  America can do — and has done — big things when we work together.  We can leave this world and make it safer and more secure for our children and our grandchildren for generations to come. 

I want to thank once again Secretary Kerry; our entire national security team, led by Susan Rice.  I’m grateful for all the assistance that we received from our allies and partners.  And I am hopeful that this signals the opportunity at least for Iran to work more cooperatively with nations around the world to advance their interests and the interests of people who are looking for peace and security for their families.

Thank you so much.  God bless you, and God bless the United States of America.

                          END             11:03 A.M. EST   

Source: The White House website

 

Iran President’s Message on Lifting of Sanctions

The following is a written message from Hassan Rouhani, President of the Islamic Republic to the people of Iran sent on January 17th, 2016 regarding the lifting of sanctions.

Here RG21 presents the original translated text published by the government of Iran. Whenever possible, it is our aim to provide you with source documents, rather than simply a report or analysis. This will enable you to use your own intelligence and instincts to arrive at an informed opinion about world affairs without the filter and bias of the big media organizations. (Reading Time: 6 minutes)

In the Name of Allah, the Most Beneficent, the Most Merciful

Brave and heroic people of Iran, today JCPOA concluded

I praise God for this great gift and show my utmost respect to you patient people

Happy to you all this glorious victory!

In the history of every nation there are moments which clearly shows the position and character of the nation; a time when the world’s eyes are stuck to the decision and the will/desire of the nation, while world peoples are concentrating on the subject and eagerly wait to hear from the nation.

Today, the officially announcement of the implementation of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) means that the Iranian nuclear program is “ever secured”, the tyrannical resolutions against the Iranian nation are canceled, the sanctions are removed, Iran’s nuclear rights has been accepted by all and the Iranian economy became a global one.

We have accomplished and won the professional and complex negotiations and reached an agreement with the world with dignity and authority based on the divine blessings, auspices of Imam Mahdi, according to the fatwa of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution about the prohibition of nuclear weapons and by relying on the vote of the people of Iran on 24 June 2013 and with the skills of Iranian diplomats and nuclear scientists, as well.

Now we have passed behind the dangerous winding road in the economy and still follow the strategy of resistance economy, the strategy which is not against world economy but in conjunction with it.

Implementation of JCPOA is not against any country. As friends are happy with it, the rivals also should have no concern about it; because Iran is not any threat to any state or nation. We are also fully prepared to protect the honor of Iran, to defend our country’s sovereignty, to be a messenger of peace, stability and security in the region and the world.

The victory in the nuclear negotiation is not a factional victory, but for all Iranians and the implementation of the JCPOA is not against any domestic faction or political group, because it is the ending result of all Iranian nation resistance, thoughtfulness, well management and will to show the world that it is a people against any war and violence who have chosen logic, negotiation and excellent debate.

Respected Iranians

I am well informed about what had happen to you during the years of sanctions and foreign pressures. But it is time to construct, reconstruct and flourish, because from now on there is no boycotting chain on the feet of national economy, as we are witnessing the dignity and independence of our country, as well.

Now is the time to build and flourish. You people have passed behind the sanctions with patience, dignity and pride. Today is a transitional period from sanctions to development which requires endeavors, hard working, initiative and investment, and it is a time for all Iranians especially for youth to seize the very opportunities of flourish.

I praise and appreciate the people of Iran, the Supreme Leader of Islamic Revolution, Grand Ayatollahs, the diplomatic system, the legislators and the previous governments, as well. I bow down and praise all-Mighty Allah and congratulate this historic moment in the life of the Iranian nation, to all the martyrs, especially the martyrs of the Iran nuclear technology who taught us the lesson of hard working, patience, dignity and honor.

I need to thank each and every one of our fellow citizens anywhere in the world, for their two and a half years of complicity with government and their round the clock efforts to cooperate with the government of prudence and hope to finally reach the very deal which has put an end to the sanctions.

With the laudation and greetings to the brave nation of Iran. Peace be upon you as you endured.

Hassan Rouhani/President of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Source: Website of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran