RG21’s Predictions for 2021

                        by David Parmer / Tokyo

Here are a few “predictions” from RG-21 for 2021. None of them are really new, but rather the ways that existing situations might develop in the New Year.

China-VS-US: We took a look at this topic before here at RG-21, and our conclusions have not changed much. The new Biden administration will not fundamentally change its relationship with the People’s Republic of China. Certainly the bellicose tone favored by President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will be toned down. Diplomacy will be back in fashion and this includes relations with the PRC. The constant attacks on the CPC (Communist Party of China) will cease from the US government, but not from right-wing elements within the US.

As former Secretary of Defense James Mattis saw it, China is a “strategic competitor” but not an enemy. This may very well be the approach that the Biden administration takes. Also, the Trump administration has left the Biden people with several cards to play vis-a-vis China. While some sanctions may be lifted as a “good will” gesture, the others will be bargaining chips which the US will happily remove in return for concessions from the PRC.

As for the South China Sea issue, neither China nor the US will budge much if at all. As for the Indo-Pacific, the US will continue to do what it has been doing to form a coalition around the area to maintain a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” From the Chinese side this may very well be seen as an effort to contain or encircle China.

The US will continue to evaluate Huawei’s role in building and re-building infrastructure worldwide. The case of Meng Wanzhou might be re-evaluated and dropped or settled out of court as a “good will” gesture to the PRC.

 President Biden will get US allies on board with whatever China policy the US decides to adopt. This may be easier than might be imagined since, for now, China and Europe are not on the best of terms.

Finally, with better US-China dialogue, consular facilities that were closed on a tit-for-tat basis may be quickly re-opened.

Iran-VS-US: Relations between the US and the Islamic Republic are at such a low point that almost anything done in a positive manner would be seen as significant. After China, Iran is next on the list threats to the US as seen by the Trump administration.

To this end President Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA or “Iran Deal” despite Iran’s independently verified full compliance with the terms of the agreement. As we have written previously, the Europeans  (together with China and Russia) have kept the agreement on “life support” after the US withdrawal.  The US and Israel have kept Iran in their sights, and have taken provocative actions that only strengthen the radical elements within Iran, and then use the results of those provocations to show how dangerous Iran is.

Here again, the Trump administration has left the US with some cards to play. Sanctions could be lifted in exchange for that which the US and its allies want. For example, a whole host of sanctions could be lifted for some movement on Iran’s limiting its missile program, one that causes much more threat to its neighborhood than a nuclear capability.

It was the US and Israel that wanted Iran to re-negotiate the JCPOA to include this program that caused the US to withdraw from the JCPOA. The strategy was that crippling sanctions would drive Iran back to the table to negotiate over its missile program. This did not happen. The Iranians, just like the Cubans bore the brunt of US sanctions and did not fold.

The Biden administration could begin immediately to re-weave the JCPOA. First by re-joining, and then when Iran is found in compliance, to release much-needed funds to the government of Iran.

The original strategy of the JCPOA was to strengthen the moderate elements in the Iran power structure, and it is likely that this strategy will again be used.

Taiwan-VS-China-VS-US: The bottom line is this–the US Taiwan policy will not fundamentally change, but the tone will. Support for Taiwan (as is) is rock solid in the US congress. Weapons sales will continue. What will happen first is the rhetoric regarding China will be toned-down.

Also, the drawing of Taiwan closer to US will probably stop. Despite the Taiwan Relations Act, high-level visits by US officials will be seen for what they are: provocative acts which could potentially de-stabilize a precarious situation. Acts that could be seen as re-recognizing Taiwan as “China” will be toned-down or eliminated. But the US will not budge on Taiwan or on the “freedom of navigation” within the Taiwan Strait.

In a sense, this takes the US out of the equation in the question of China-vs-Taiwan. In another sense, both parties are back to “square one.” And what is “square one?” China claims Taiwan as its territory and has promised to return the island to the PRC even using force if necessary. Taiwan sees itself as a de-facto independent country, and clings to the Republic of China name not as an anachronism but as a reality. Again and again the people of the island have reported that they see themselves as Taiwanese and not Chinese.

President Tsai Ing-wen’s Democratic Progressive Party is called an “independence” party, but it knows that if it declares “independence” it will cross a redline that will probably lead to the PRC invading.

China may be thinking (and hoping) that if the DPP does not deliver to its constituents, then the pro-Beijing Kuomintang opposition party may take power and relations would again improve significantly.

The situation for now: stalemate. But from the PRC’s point of view, the clock is ticking. Tick-tock, tick-tock.

US-VS-Europe: Old friends meet again. Traditional allies close ranks. Relations between the US and Europe will take a monumental leap forward once Joe Biden raises his hand and takes the oath of office of the President of the United States. Trump’s distain for diplomacy and for long-standing relationships that do not benefit the US in his way of calculating will no longer be policy.

The Biden administration will again re-assert US world leadership and call on the Europeans to join. With its strong traditional allies the US will have a joint face regarding both China and Russia.

US-Turkey-NATO: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey is going his own way and is far along on making Turkey a viable regional power. There have been comments that he is creating a new Ottoman Empire with himself at the center. Turkey is the only Muslim member of NATO, and the US has for years had a base at Incirlik on Turkish soil. And yet, Turkey despite its NATO membership went ahead and bought the powerful and capable Russian Triumph S-400 missile system. In retaliation, the US removed Turkey from a lucrative and advanced program in fabricating the cutting-edge F35 fighter.

Erdogan also has brought force to bear on the Kurdish fighters in Syria whom it counts as terrorists. These same Kurds are seen as staunch US allies, or at least they were before the Trump administration pulled US advisors out, thereby signaling Erdogan that is OK to do what he wishes with the Kurds.

It is likely that the US will mend fences with the Kurds as well as soon as Donald Trump is gone. But the US will now have to face new challenges in the region. Both Iran and Turkey will be mid-level players who will be calling the shots in their neighborhood. It will be up to the Biden administration to formulate a strategy to deal with these two emerging and powerful regional powers.

Korea-VS-The World: There are no signs that the Kim dynasty will go away any time soon. Kim Jong-un will continue to rule and will continue to hone his nuclear powered military. He will probably try to upgrade his submarine fleet (if anyone will sell him the boats) and will continue to strengthen his special forces as well.

Kim’s strategy for the South in the event of war would be asymmetrical warfare to start with including the use of special forces to disrupt communications and transport in the South and then use his massive conventional forces to invade following a withering rain of artillery fire on Seoul and a missile attack on the largest US base in the country, Camp Humphreys, which is just 97km (60 miles) from the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).

Donald Trump’s attempt to get concessions from Kim failed. His meetings resulted in nothing taking place except the optics of a meeting. The Biden administration will have to deal with the Korea stalemate as well. Kim will probably use his nuclear arsenal to try to intimidate the US and Japan, and extract some kind of concessions from the South.

Perhaps the only negative to be found in the departure of Donald Trump from the office of US president will be the fact that Kim could never be sure of Trump’s mental state, and he could never be sure that Trump would not “press the button” on the DPRK.

With a more measured and professional Biden in office, it is likely that Kim, without the fear of immediate nuclear reprisal from Trump, will again begin to stir things up on the Korean peninsula.

There are a few more areas of interest that could heat up in 2021. Next time we will take a look at a few including Russia, Syria, Central Africa, and the Nordic countries.

Photo: Marshall Space Flight Center via flickr

506 Days Till US Presidental Election.

                           by David Parmer / Tokyo

In just over 500 days the United States will hold the most important presidential election in its 238-year history. On the surface, the election will be about whether Donald Trump gets another 4 years in the White House. But more fundamentally, it can be seen as a battle for the soul of America.

Donald J. Trump, real-estate tycoon, dealmaker, and 45th President of the United States has brought his own brand of populism to Washington. Polls consistently show his approval rating hovering around 35% and sometimes a bit higher. Many of those who voted for Trump did so in a belief that he would “shake things up.” And that he has done. It seems that this mandate has no limits and he can virtually do what he wants. He is famously quoted as saying that he could shoot someone on New York’s Fifth Avenue, and that there would be no backlash. It looks like he is right. Scandal after scandal just do not affect him, and the phrase “like water off a duck’s back” comes to mind.

More important than Trump’s personal style, about which much has been written, is his America First ideology. Trump’s philosophy boils down to: “If it ain’t broke, break it!” Trump has embraced foreign dictators like Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin and dismissed the advice of Washington professionals (including his own intelligence agencies) in the American government. Trump has also picked fights with America’s traditional allies and disparaged NATO. The most insidious part about Trump and his cohorts is the re-shaping of traditional American values. Trump claims to return to real-American values, but his policies speak otherwise. And now, Donald Trump wants another 4 years. Will he get those 4 years?

Trump will be voted out of office in November 2020 if the Democrats have their way. As of June 2019, their best candidate for doing this is former Vice President Joe Biden. Biden won’t get the Democratic nomination without a fight, and a tough one at that, but he has one magic quality: elect-ability. This means that if anyone can beat Trump he is seen as the one to do it.

There are 24 Democrats including Biden vying for the job of president. Biden’s strategy, from the beginning, is to target Trump and not his fellow Democrats. True, he will have to “mix it up” with them in several debates over the next 506 days, but he might just let them sort themselves out, and the last man/woman standing will get to be his running mate.

Democrats need to put up a centrist as a presidential candidate in order to challenge Trump in his 35% base areas, and Biden fits the bill perfectly. Probably to appease the Democratic Party’s leftists, however, Biden’s running mate will either be an “ethnic” or a woman. Senator Kamala Harris fits both bills and is a likely choice. Senator Corey Booker, a black liberal with impressive credentials, might also be chosen. Another possibility for Biden’s running mate is former Congressman Beto O’Rourke. Will the Democratic Party put forward two “white guys” in the age of diversity? That remains to be seen.

These are dangerous times in and of themselves and also by virtue of the climate that Donald Trump has created. The world is a much more dangerous place because of the policies the Trump administration has put in place vis-a-vis NATO, Iran, Russia and China to name just a few. With this in mind, it is no stretch to see this as the most important election in American history. Not only the US, but countries around the world wait with bated breath for the results of the 2020 presidential election.

Photo: Bastin Grenshake Tzovaras  via flickr 

Please let us know your thoughts on this.

 

American President’s Message on Lifting of Sanctions On Iran

The following is a speech delivered by Barack Obama, President of the United States on January 17th, 2016 regarding the lifting of sanctions on Iran.

 Here RG21 presents the original text published by the White House. Whenever possible, it is our aim to provide you with source documents, rather than simply a report or analysis. This will enable you to use your own intelligence and instincts to arrive at an informed opinion about world affairs without the filter and bias of the big media organizations. (Reading Time: 9 minutes).

For Immediate Release

Statement by the President on Iran

The Cabinet Room 

10:48 A.M. EST

     THE PRESIDENT:  This is a good day, because, once again, we’re seeing what’s possible with strong American diplomacy. 

As I said in my State of the Union address, ensuring the security of the United States and the safety of our people demands a smart, patient and disciplined approach to the world.  That includes our diplomacy with the Islamic Republic of Iran.  For decades, our differences with Iran meant that our governments almost never spoke to each other.  Ultimately, that did not advance America’s interests.  Over the years, Iran moved closer and closer to having the ability to build a nuclear weapon.  But from Presidents Franklin Roosevelt to John F. Kennedy to Ronald Reagan, the United States has never been afraid to pursue diplomacy with our adversaries.  And as President, I decided that a strong, confident America could advance our national security by engaging directly with the Iranian government.

We’ve seen the results.  Under the nuclear deal that we, our allies and partners reached with Iran last year, Iran will not get its hands on a nuclear bomb.  The region, the United States, and the world will be more secure.  As I’ve said many times, the nuclear deal was never intended to resolve all of our differences with Iran.  But still, engaging directly with the Iranian government on a sustained basis, for the first time in decades, has created a unique opportunity — a window — to try to resolve important issues.  And today, I can report progress on a number of fronts.

First, yesterday marked a milestone in preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.  Iran has now fulfilled key commitments under the nuclear deal.  And I want to take a moment to explain why this is so important. 

Over more than a decade, Iran had moved ahead with its nuclear program, and, before the deal, it had installed nearly 20,000 centrifuges that can enrich uranium for a nuclear bomb.  Today, Iran has removed two-thirds of those machines.  Before the deal, Iran was steadily increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium — enough for up to 10 nuclear bombs.  Today, more than 98 percent of that stockpile has been shipped out of Iran — meaning Iran now doesn’t have enough material for even one bomb. Before, Iran was nearing completion of a new reactor capable of producing plutonium for a bomb.  Today, the core of that reactor has been pulled out and filled with concrete so it cannot be used again. 

Before the deal, the world had relatively little visibility into Iran’s nuclear program.  Today, international inspectors are on the ground, and Iran is being subjected to the most comprehensive, intrusive inspection regime ever negotiated to monitor a nuclear program.  Inspectors will monitor Iran’s key nuclear facilities 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.  For decades to come, inspectors will have access to Iran’s entire nuclear supply chain.  In other words, if Iran tries to cheat — if they try to build a bomb covertly — we will catch them. 

So the bottom line is this.  Whereas Iran was steadily expanding its nuclear program, we have now cut off every single path that Iran could have used to build a bomb.  Whereas it would have taken Iran two to three months to break out with enough material to rush to a bomb, we’ve now extended that breakout time to a year — and with the world’s unprecedented inspections and access to Iran’s program, we’ll know if Iran ever tries to break out. 

Now that Iran’s actions have been verified, it can begin to receive relief from certain nuclear sanctions and gain access to its own money that had been frozen.  And perhaps most important of all, we’ve achieved this historic progress through diplomacy, without resorting to another war in the Middle East. 

I want to also point out that by working with Iran on this nuclear deal, we were better able to address other issues.  When our sailors in the Persian Gulf accidentally strayed into Iranian waters that could have sparked a major international incident.  Some folks here in Washington rushed to declare that it was the start of another hostage crisis.  Instead, we worked directly with the Iranian government and secured the release of our sailors in less than 24 hours.

This brings me to a second major development — several Americans unjustly detained by Iran are finally coming home.  In some cases, these Americans faced years of continued detention.  And I’ve met with some of their families.  I’ve seen their anguish, how they ache for their sons and husbands.  I gave these families my word — I made a vow — that we would do everything in our power to win the release of their loved ones.  And we have been tireless.  On the sidelines of the nuclear negotiations, our diplomats at the highest level, including Secretary Kerry, used every meeting to push Iran to release our Americans.  I did so myself, in my conversation with President Rouhani.  After the nuclear deal was completed, the discussions between our governments accelerated.  Yesterday, these families finally got the news that they have been waiting for. 

Jason Rezaian is coming home.  A courageous journalist for The Washington Post, who wrote about the daily lives and hopes of the Iranian people, he’s been held for a year and a half.  He embodies the brave spirit that gives life to the freedom of the press.  Jason has already been reunited with his wife and mom.

Pastor Saeed Abedini is coming home.  Held for three and half years, his unyielding faith has inspired people around the world in the global fight to uphold freedom of religion.  Now, Pastor Abedini will return to his church and community in Idaho. 

Amir Hekmati is coming home.  A former sergeant in the Marine Corps, he’s been held for four and a half years.  Today, his parents and sisters are giving thanks in Michigan.

Two other Americans unjustly detained by Iran have also been released — Nosratollah Khosravi-Roodsari and Matthew Trevithick, an Iranian — who was in Iran as a student.  Their cases were largely unknown to the world.  But when Americans are freed and reunited with their families, that’s something that we can all celebrate. 

So I want to thank my national security team — especially Secretary Kerry; Susan Rice, my National Security Advisor; Brett McGurk; Avril Haines; Ben Rhodes — our whole team worked tirelessly to bring our Americans home, to get this work done.  And I want to thank the Swiss government, which represents our interests in Iran, for their critical assistance. 

And meanwhile, Iran has agreed to deepen our coordination as we work to locate Robert Levinson — missing from Iran for more than eight years.  Even as we rejoice in the safe return of others, we will never forget about Bob.  Each and every day, but especially today, our hearts are with the Levinson family, and we will not rest until their family is whole again. 

In a reciprocal humanitarian gesture, six Iranian–Americans and one Iranian serving sentences or awaiting trial in the United States are being granted clemency.  These individuals were not charged with terrorism or any violent offenses.  They’re civilians, and their release is a one-time gesture to Iran given the unique opportunity offered by this moment and the larger circumstances at play.  And it reflects our willingness to engage with Iran to advance our mutual interests, even as we ensure the national security of the United States.

So, nuclear deal implemented.  American families reunited.  The third piece of this work that we got done this weekend involved the United States and Iran resolving a financial dispute that dated back more than three decades.  Since 1981, after our nations severed diplomatic relations, we’ve worked through a international tribunal to resolve various claims between our countries.  The United States and Iran are now settling a longstanding Iranian government claim against the United States government.  Iran will be returned its own funds, including appropriate interest, but much less than the amount Iran sought. 

For the United States, this settlement could save us billions of dollars that could have been pursued by Iran.  So there was no benefit to the United States in dragging this out.  With the nuclear deal done, prisoners released, the time was right to resolve this dispute as well.

Of course, even as we implement the nuclear deal and welcome our Americans home, we recognize that there remain profound differences between the United States and Iran.  We remain steadfast in opposing Iran’s destabilizing behavior elsewhere, including its threats against Israel and our Gulf partners, and its support for violent proxies in places like Syria and Yemen.  We still have sanctions on Iran for its violations of human rights, for its support of terrorism, and for its ballistic missile program.  And we will continue to enforce these sanctions, vigorously.  Iran’s recent missile test, for example, was a violation of its international obligations.  And as a result, the United States is imposing sanctions on individuals and companies working to advance Iran’s ballistic missile program.  And we are going to remain vigilant about it.  We’re not going to waver in the defense of our security or that of our allies and partners.    

But I do want to once again speak directly to the Iranian people.  Yours is a great civilization, with a vibrant culture that has so much to contribute to the world — in commerce, and in science and the arts.  For decades, your government’s threats and actions to destabilize your region have isolated Iran from much of the world.  And now our governments are talking with one another.  Following the nuclear deal, you — especially young Iranians — have the opportunity to begin building new ties with the world.  We have a rare chance to pursue a new path — a different, better future that delivers progress for both our peoples and the wider world.  That’s the opportunity before the Iranian people.  We need to take advantage of that.  

And to my fellow Americans, today, we’re united in welcoming home sons and husbands and brothers who, in lonely prison cells, have endured an absolute nightmare.  But they never gave in and they never gave up.  At long last, they can stand tall and breathe deep the fresh air of freedom. 

As a nation, we face real challenges, around the world and here at home.  Many of them will not be resolved quickly or easily.  But today’s progress — Americans coming home, an Iran that has rolled back its nuclear program and accepted unprecedented monitoring of that program — these things are a reminder of what we can achieve when we lead with strength and with wisdom; with courage and resolve and patience.  America can do — and has done — big things when we work together.  We can leave this world and make it safer and more secure for our children and our grandchildren for generations to come. 

I want to thank once again Secretary Kerry; our entire national security team, led by Susan Rice.  I’m grateful for all the assistance that we received from our allies and partners.  And I am hopeful that this signals the opportunity at least for Iran to work more cooperatively with nations around the world to advance their interests and the interests of people who are looking for peace and security for their families.

Thank you so much.  God bless you, and God bless the United States of America.

                          END             11:03 A.M. EST   

Source: The White House website

 

Iran President’s Message on Lifting of Sanctions

The following is a written message from Hassan Rouhani, President of the Islamic Republic to the people of Iran sent on January 17th, 2016 regarding the lifting of sanctions.

Here RG21 presents the original translated text published by the government of Iran. Whenever possible, it is our aim to provide you with source documents, rather than simply a report or analysis. This will enable you to use your own intelligence and instincts to arrive at an informed opinion about world affairs without the filter and bias of the big media organizations. (Reading Time: 6 minutes)

In the Name of Allah, the Most Beneficent, the Most Merciful

Brave and heroic people of Iran, today JCPOA concluded

I praise God for this great gift and show my utmost respect to you patient people

Happy to you all this glorious victory!

In the history of every nation there are moments which clearly shows the position and character of the nation; a time when the world’s eyes are stuck to the decision and the will/desire of the nation, while world peoples are concentrating on the subject and eagerly wait to hear from the nation.

Today, the officially announcement of the implementation of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) means that the Iranian nuclear program is “ever secured”, the tyrannical resolutions against the Iranian nation are canceled, the sanctions are removed, Iran’s nuclear rights has been accepted by all and the Iranian economy became a global one.

We have accomplished and won the professional and complex negotiations and reached an agreement with the world with dignity and authority based on the divine blessings, auspices of Imam Mahdi, according to the fatwa of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution about the prohibition of nuclear weapons and by relying on the vote of the people of Iran on 24 June 2013 and with the skills of Iranian diplomats and nuclear scientists, as well.

Now we have passed behind the dangerous winding road in the economy and still follow the strategy of resistance economy, the strategy which is not against world economy but in conjunction with it.

Implementation of JCPOA is not against any country. As friends are happy with it, the rivals also should have no concern about it; because Iran is not any threat to any state or nation. We are also fully prepared to protect the honor of Iran, to defend our country’s sovereignty, to be a messenger of peace, stability and security in the region and the world.

The victory in the nuclear negotiation is not a factional victory, but for all Iranians and the implementation of the JCPOA is not against any domestic faction or political group, because it is the ending result of all Iranian nation resistance, thoughtfulness, well management and will to show the world that it is a people against any war and violence who have chosen logic, negotiation and excellent debate.

Respected Iranians

I am well informed about what had happen to you during the years of sanctions and foreign pressures. But it is time to construct, reconstruct and flourish, because from now on there is no boycotting chain on the feet of national economy, as we are witnessing the dignity and independence of our country, as well.

Now is the time to build and flourish. You people have passed behind the sanctions with patience, dignity and pride. Today is a transitional period from sanctions to development which requires endeavors, hard working, initiative and investment, and it is a time for all Iranians especially for youth to seize the very opportunities of flourish.

I praise and appreciate the people of Iran, the Supreme Leader of Islamic Revolution, Grand Ayatollahs, the diplomatic system, the legislators and the previous governments, as well. I bow down and praise all-Mighty Allah and congratulate this historic moment in the life of the Iranian nation, to all the martyrs, especially the martyrs of the Iran nuclear technology who taught us the lesson of hard working, patience, dignity and honor.

I need to thank each and every one of our fellow citizens anywhere in the world, for their two and a half years of complicity with government and their round the clock efforts to cooperate with the government of prudence and hope to finally reach the very deal which has put an end to the sanctions.

With the laudation and greetings to the brave nation of Iran. Peace be upon you as you endured.

Hassan Rouhani/President of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Source: Website of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran