カテゴリー: 議論の場

TV images again show Israel’s tanks moving toward the West Bank and Israel’s bombs falling on Palestinian targets. The same TV programs show Hammas missiles headed into Israel. People are dying on both sides of the border. And? Cease fires take place and are broken and more people die. Hammas has missiles, just as the Taliban had Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs). Both use(d) a low-tech weapon to combat an heavily armed and technological superior opponent. For the Palestinians the missile is their IED, and their equalizer. But weapons systems are not the real question here. The question is how can Israel and Palestine co-exist peacefully? The answer to that question may well not come until the end of this century or beyond when factors outside the problem change the context of the stalemate. What those factors will be is anybody’s guess. Peace in the Middle East? How about peace between Israel and Palestine? What do you think? Log in and give us your answer.

“Let me emphasize to you today the United States does not seek to contain China. We welcome the emergence of a peaceful, stable, prosperous China that contributes to the stability and the development of the region…”(Sec. John Kerry)

 U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss the conclusion of the 5th Annual U.S.-China People-to-People Exchange and Sixth Strategic and Economic Dialogue between the two nations on July 10, 2014. (Photo: Wikimedia)

                                                                  by David Parmer

Secretary of State John Kerry went to China last week with a high level delegation to attend a series of meetings with Chinese counterparts. Some reports suggested modest success in the meetings. The two countries discussed climate change, nuclear non-proliferation and North Korea and Iran’s nuclear programs as well as cooperation on fighting terrorism. Areas of difference remain centered on alleged cyber attacks on U.S. officials and ongoing territorial issues. Kerry went out of his way to stress that the U.S. does not seek to contain China, but rather welcomes China’s emergence, and the continuation of good relations that began with a handshake 35 years ago. 

In his remarks at the opening of the Sixth Round of the U.S.- China Strategic and Economic dialogue, Secretary also said: 

 I am particularly pleased to be here with my co-chair, the Secretary of the Treasury, Jack Lew; with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen; with our Secretary of Commerce, Penny Pritzker; with the Secretary of Energy, Ernie Moniz; with our Trade Representative, Mike Froman. As I look down the line with many other members of government, the top advisors (inaudible) my deputy, (inaudible) Deputy Secretary of State William Burns — in fact, as I looked at the (inaudible) of people from the American delegation here, it is obvious to me that not a lot is getting done back in Washington today. It is being done here.

By the time Kerry and his delegation left, meetings had been held, topics discussed, and agreements made. Reports mentioned no big breakthroughs. But what was Kerry’s message? What did the composition of the Kerry delegation ( containing some of the administration’s top appointees) say to the Chinese without words? It said we value you, we respect you, we are sending some of our highest officials to the Middle Kingdom. Our relationship is not just important, it is vital. The U.S. and the Obama administration showed respect to China. They were not speaking Mandarin, but they were speaking the language of the Chinese. 

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2014 is already half over. A series of international crises have come and gone and come. Ukraine which started the year off at center stage seems to have settled itself for the time being. Long standing ethnic differences have receded, but could flare up at any time. Russia seems to have lost interest in cold-war-ear-type brinksmanship in Ukraine. But out of nowhere Islamic militants calling themselves ISIS have come on center stage, declaring a state or Caliphate in the Syria, Iraq region. And the Sunni-Shia rivalry that was on the back burner has now, again, come to full boil. The South China Sea is quiet, although all concerned parties seem to be jockeying for position and preparing for the next round. So this week’s question is: What area of the globe do you think the next crisis will take place in? What region will capture world attention for the second half of 2014. Please log in and post your comments below.

                                            Yasukuni Shrine, Kudan Tokyo (Wikimedia)

Summer 2014 has come to Tokyo. The rainy season will finish in a week or so and the infamous Kanto summer heat will be here until the very end of September. Students will have a summer vacation, and office workers will be able to spend a few days with their families at the beach or in the mountains. And in August the Obon holiday will be observed. Obon is a time when Japanese people honor their ancestors, visit cemeteries and clean the gravesites. August 15th marks the end of WWII, and is a time when Japanese lawmakers visit the shrine to honor the war dead. Some say that the Japanese see Yasukuni Shrine the same way as Americans see Arlington national cemetery. But Japan’s neighbors, and wartime foes see it as a glorification of militarism, and a continuing symptom of Japan’s inability to come to terms with its imperial past. Tensions in East Asia are certainly at an all-time postwar high, and it is unlikely that the Japanese government members will deviate from their customary visit to the shrine, or that Japan’s neighbors will accept the shrine visits as normal and proper. So, what will we see in the summer of 2014? It looks like tensions will certainly continue to rise, and that Yasukuni will remain squarely in focus this summer.

Things seemed to be going so well, and then? They weren’t. This last week has seen what looks like a full-fledged civil war beginning in Iraq. What happened? The U.S. left, elections were held and things moved along. Some sort of balance seemed to be holding among Sunnis, Shia and Kurds. And then it wasn’t. Alliances were made. Reports have former Bath party members joining with Sunnis. Militants and foreign fighters, too radical even for Al Qaeda, called ISIS, marched on Baghdad. The government of prime minister Nouri al-Malaki seems powerless to stop them.  The U.S. said it won’t intervene, but that it will…send advisors and maybe… What is going on?  From the “Arab Spring” to this? What is going on? Log in and let us know your opinion.

                                            Alibaba founder, Jack Ma ( WEF)

This summer promises the launch of what might be one of the biggest IPOs (Initial Public Offering) in history. China’s Hangzhou-based e-commerce giant Alibaba will be listed in New York soon, some say on August 8, which is seen as an auspicious date. Estimates of the size of the IPO range from a conservative $USD 20 billion to $USD 150 billion to $USD 200 billion. Besides its B-to-B flagship unit, Alibaba also has an online marketplace, Taobao, and AliPay, its financial arm that is bigger than PayPal. So if you are investing this year, would you buy some Alibaba stock for your portfolio? Please log in and post your thoughts.

http://www.alibaba.com

http://www.engtaobao.com

 

 

 

 

The troubles in Ukraine continue. Despite separatist threats, intimidation and disruption, elections in the former Soviet republic were held.  Russian troop strength on Ukraine’s borders has reportedly decreased. Kiev is working to get control of the country and deal with the situation in its eastern provinces. And what of Russia’s involvement in this matter: have the leaders in the Kremlin thought twice about the costs of what is to be gained and lost in meddling in Ukraine’s internal affairs? Has Russia been reassured, or does it fear a NATO noose slowly tightening around its neck? Are proposed sanctions the reason Russia has backed off, or is Russia simply biding its time? Please log in and post your thoughts.

Channel News Asia reports that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will propose a more pro-active role for Japan in regional disputes at the Asian Security Summit to be held this weekend. Observers say that Abe will base this activism on the enhanced U.S.-Japan security alliance.  So if Japan does become more active, and it’s government  passes legislation allowing it to assist other nations, how will this change the balance of power in the region?.  Will Asian countries welcome Japan’s resurgent power, or will memories of the Pacific War cause them to view Japan’s activism with skepticism? Let us know your thoughts on a more pro-active Asian Japan. Log in and post your thoughts. 

China and Russia, old Socialist allies from a way back seem to again be getting close. While economic activity in recent times has remained robust, politically they have gone their own ways since the days of Chairman Mao. Now things seem to be changing. China is embroiled in not just one but several border disputes with its neighbors in the East China Sea and South China Sea. Russia has its own problems with Ukraine and the West. In times of need it is good to have a friend, and maybe this is what both Presidents were thinking this week when they met in China. The signing of a 30-year, $400 billion deal for Russia to supply natural gas to China satisfies both countries’ needs: Russia for a new customer other than Europe for its energy, and China to find a steady supply of clean energy to feed the incessant demands of its economy. The gas deal also gives Putin some leverage in Ukraine, as Western sanctions will not have quite the bite if China would take up the slack created by the defection of Western European customers. Russia and China also went to hold naval maneuvers this week. (.http://english.cntv.cn/2014/05/22/VIDE1400728504756848.shtml)

While events on Russia’s western frontier, and China’s eastern frontier get the media attention, the two together form a significant part of the global land mass and economy, and central Asia on which they both border is just waking up. The West and Japan might have to start to re-think some of their strategies. (Please log in and let us know what you think.) 

For our first annual Reader Survey, the RG21 staff would like to know what stories you find most interesting and what type of stories would you like to read in the future. We will endeavor to continue to bring you the most useful stories concerning the politics, economics, history, culture and business of the Asia-Pacific region. If there is a special area of coverage that you would like us to consider, please log in and give us your opinions.