Asian Waters—The Very Busy Strait of Malacca

Strait of Mallaca (Photo: Maritime Trade Intelligence)

by David Parmer

You could argue that the Malacca strait is not just the most important waterway in Asia, but is also the most important waterway in the world. And you would be on strong ground in doing so. Just look at the facts. Every year 50-60,000 ships pass through the strait of Malacca. One-third of the world’s shipping trade and an enormous amount of crude oil (15.2m barrels a day in 2011) and petroleum products make the trip from the Andaman Sea to the South China Sea. It is the shortest sea route between the Persian Gulf and Asia, specifically resource-hungry countries like China, Japan and Korea.

The Malacca Strait is a 550-mile-long sea route, ranging in width from a wide 155miles, to 40 miles to a very harrowing 1.7 miles wide (in the Phillips Channel of the Singapore Strait). The Malacca Strait flows between Indonesia and Malaysia and Singapore. The maritime standard for the area is Malaccamax, i.e. that it can handle vessels with a maximum draught of 82 feet. But for vessels of any size, the busy Malacca Strait is not without its dangers.

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Map:Strait of Malacca (Encyclopedia of Earth)

In such a heavily trafficked area there is always danger of grounding, collision and oil spills. Sea-Seek Sailing Guide reports that there are 34 shipwrecks in the traffic separation channel. Add to this the annual appearance of serious haze from slash-and-burn agriculture on Sumatra that cuts visibility down to 200 meters. And finally, there is the scourge of mariners worldwide throughout history: piracy.

Reports of the extent of Malacca piracy vary, some say it has decreased to almost nothing, and others say there is a sharp rise in attacks on merchant shipping. Reports from 2013 show a steady decline in attacks, while others pinpoint Malacca as a piracy hot spot comparable to the Somali coast. Increase or decrease notwithstanding, the Malacca Strait is an area where pirates abound. Malacca pirates mostly target valuables on the ships and crews’ possessions, although some more sophisticated gangs steal oil products. In 2006, due to a decreased risk, the global insurer Lloyds dropped its “war risk classification” for ships sailing the strait.

Decreased piracy activity is due in part thanks to the Malacca Straits Sea Patrol, operated by Indonesia, Malaysian, Singapore and Thailand. These countries also share information and intelligence on piracy. Countries in the region also cooperate through membership in the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP). In September 2014, the United States became the 20th member of ReCAAP, and sent a US Coast Guard admiral to sit on its board.

Since 2007, there has also been three-nation cooperation through the Cooperative Mechanism on Safety of Navigation and Environmental Protection in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.

So, is the Strait of Malacca the most important waterway in Asia and in the world? If you say “yes” you will probably be right.

Piracy Decrease:

http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/manualassets/pirates_2014/index.html

Piracy Increase:

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/indonesia/140326/malacca-strait-piracy-hotspot

Regional, 20-Country Anti-Piracy Organization:

http://www.recaap.org

U.S. China Policy: What’s up?

National Security Council (Photo: White House Gov.)

by David Parmer

A key element of stage magic is misdirection: while we watch the magician’s right hand, his left hand holds the disappearing coin. Faced with the back-and-forth of US-China relations, one wonders where is the substance and where is the illusion. Are we seeing one, or the other? Or both? On one hand the US and China are wary of one another. The “pivot to Asia” can be interpreted to mean the US plans to check Chinese power. And China’s de facto “no fly zone” in the S. China Sea has raised the tension level with the US and her allies. Pushback from the Chinese side on the Diaoyu/Senkaku issue has further raised tensions and soured relations with Japan, one of the US’s closest post-war allies. OK. So relations are frosty, and there won’t be any invitations for a beer after work-but wait just a minute. In 2014 the Obama administration has sent it’s “A” team to China. Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel went in April, and then Secretary of State John Kerry in August (accompanied, apparently, by everyone in Washington except the ticket taker at the Smithsonian) and in September, National Security Advisor Susan Rice put in her appearance in Beijing to lay the groundwork for President Barak Obama’s visit in November. So what is going on? In the old old old days states sent their representatives to the Middle Kingdom to pay their respects to the Son of Heaven. But surely, nothing like that could be going on now? Could it? So where is the substance and where the illusion? What aren’t we seeing in the US-China relationship? Which hand holds the coin? Log in and give us your opinion.

U.S. Sends Rice To China

Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi (R) holds talks with U.S. President Barack Obama’s National Security Advisor Susan Rice in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 8, 2014. (Xinhua/Wang Ye)

On September 2, 2014, the US National Security Council released the following statement:

From September 7-9, 2014, National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice will travel to Beijing, China, for meetings with senior Chinese officials, including State Councilor Yang Jiechi, to consult on a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues. She will underscore the United States’ commitment to building a productive relationship between our two countries in advance of the President’s visit to China in November.

The purpose of Rice’s visit was to lay the groundwork for President Barack Obama’s visit to the PRC in November after the APEC meeting. Rice was the guest of State Councilor Yang Jiechi, and it appears that the substantive talks during this trip took place on September 8, with Yang. According to Chinese reports, they discussed a number of issues.

From the Chinese side, Yang said China hopes to:

Implement consensus reached previously by both heads of state
Advance strategic mutual trust
Enhance cooperation
Manage and control differences

From the American side, Rice said the US hopes to:

Continue to maintain high-level dialogue
Have in-depth discussions on a wide range of regional and global issues
Make a bi-lateral commitment to building a new model of major country relationships

On September 9, Rice met with Foreign Minister Wang Yi where Wang stated that China sees Obama’s visit as a meeting of great importance. The issue of a new style of world power relations was addressed by Wang. Also on September 9, Rice met General Fan Changlong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Discussions were pointed, with China expressing strong concern about US close-in surveillance. Rice and Fan also discussed other issues concerning military cooperation and the new style world power relations.

Finally on September 9, Rice met with President Xi Jinping where they discussed a variety of issues and the new model for China-US major country relationship. During her visit Rice reiterated that there was a lot happening in her area of responsibility globally, but that the US saw her visit to China as a top priority.

Chinese foreign minister meets US National Security Advisor:

http://www.ecns.cn/2014/09-09/133630.shtml

Yang Jiechi holds talks with Assistant to the President for National Security:http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1189597.shtml

Sport and National Pride

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K. Nishikori, Wimbleldon 2013 ( Wikimedia/D. Iliff)

This week saw a tremendous national buzz build around Japanese tennis star Kei Nishikori as he made his way to the finals at the U.S. Open; the first Japanese to do so in 96 years. To do this he defeated world #1 Novak Djokovic. Sadly for Japanese fans, Nishikori’s tennis wasn’t the best on the day, and the crown went to Croatian Narin Cillic. So game over. But the question of national pride remains. Is it important for citizens to support athletes in national competitions simply because they share the same passport? Should the pride of a country rise and fall with the performance of its athletes? What about the Olympic Games? Is it time to tone down the nationalism? Please log in and tell us what you think about national pride and sport.

ASEAN Members Lineup : Brunei

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(Photo: Brunei Halal Industry Innovation Centre)

ASEAN member country Brunei, Darussalam (the Nation of Brunei, The Abode of Peace) is located on the north coast of the island of Borneo. It has a coastline on the South China sea and is surrounded by Sarawak Malaysia. Brunei is a former British protectorate which gained full independence on 1 January 1984. In the same week, on 7 January 1984, Brunei became a member of ASEAN.

Two things define Brunei Darussalam: religion and money. The official religion of Brunei is Islam and this year the country has moved to adopt a more strict form of Sharia law. Of interest is the recent development by the country of the Halal brand. The branding is an attempt to show prospective clients that the country’s products are produced and managed according to Islamic law. Brunei Darussalam is rich. Very rich. Its fortunes come from vast stores of petroleum and natural gas. International partners cooperate with the country in producing and exporting its products. Japan is one of its biggest customers for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). As a result of the resource wealth per capita income of its 400,000 plus population is high and many social services are provided by the government free or for a small charge. Brunei is a member of several international organizations including ASEAN, and the British Commonwealth. Brunei has close ties with both Singapore and Malaysia. There is still a British military presence in the country.

The country is governed by the absolute leader, Hassani Bolkiah, the 29th Sultan of Brunei. He has governed since 1967, lives in an 1800 room palace, reportedly has three wives, attended the British Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, is a collector of expensive cars and is worth $20 billion. The Sultan also holds several portfolios in the government.

The capital is Bandar Seri Begawan where the Brunei International Airport is located. Currency is the Brunei dollar (B$), but Singapore dollars are also used.

China Cooperates on Counter-Terrorism

China, like all major countries around the globe faces its share of 21st century terrorist threats. The threat to China is both local and global. Locally, China sees threats from its western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang. Internationally, Chinese interests are global with many situated on the African continent.

In 2001 China set up the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which is made up of six members: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The SCO was designed to deal with political, economic and military cooperation. SCO has held joint military exercises over the years called “Peace Missions.” The latest was held in the late summer of 2014 in Inner Mongolia. The purpose of these exercises was, and is, to counter the threats from separatism, extremism and terrorism. In recent years the exercises have been scaled back, but they still involve conventional military forces. Critics suggested that such forces were not suited to current terrorist threats, but events in the Middle East especially in Syria and northern Iraq suggest that conventional forces do indeed have a large role to play in counter-terrorism. SCO counter-terrorist cooperation seems robust and is likely to continue in the future.

While cooperation with its neighbors seems fairly straightforward, cooperation with the United States in a different matter. In July 2014, China and the U.S. agreed to increase cooperation on counter-terrorism. China Daily USA reported on July 17th, 2014 Chinese Vice Minister Cheng Guoping had met that week with U.S. ambassador-at-large Tina Kaidanow coordinator for terrorism at the State Department. Cheng was quoted as saying:

“Terrorism poses a direct threat to the United States, and China has also made fighting terrorist activities as a top priority for maintaining social stability,” So while increased cooperation is a good thing, the question is whether differences in the perception of what constitutes terrorism will ever be eliminated.

China sees its biggest domestic threat from Uighur Jihadists, namely the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). A series of railway station attacks to include bombing and knifings in Urumqi, Kunming and Guangzhou are clear evidence of terrorism from the Chinese point of view. Moreover, China accuses the US of having a “double standard” as far as terrorism is concerned in not condemning these attacks as terrorist acts. The U.S. has viewed China’s problems with its minorities as “human rights” issues, further alienating the Chinese side. China feels it has given the US its support in its counter-terrorism, but that reciprocity has not been forthcoming. So the July meetings are a good sign, a further step in the right direction.

China in the 21st century will have to continue to make alliances with friends and neighbors around the globe to deal with terrorism both locally and globally. And many countries will have to get used to having the Middle Kingdom as their new friend and ally in the battle.

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2014-07/17/content_17818028.htm

The White House 2016 – Who Is In The Race?

(Photo: white house.gov)

Isn’t it a little early to be thinking about the 2016 U.S. general election? Maybe not. Surely by early next year several people will declare themselves to be candidates for either the Republican or Democratic nomination. Already we can see the outline of the race to come. But who are the people in question? Let’s take a look.

Republicans

Senator Paul Rand

Governor Jeb Bush

Governor Christ Christie

Governor Bobby Jindal

Democrats

Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton

Vice President Joe Biden

Senator Elizabeth Warren

Senator Bernie Sanders

Senator Russ Feingold

Governor Andrew Cuomo

Governor Jerry Brown

Governor Martin O’Malley

These are the early possibilities. Some names will surely disappear, and some new ones will appear. Dark horses will appear seemingly from nowhere and some leading candidates will bow out for one reason or another. In short, it will be presidential politics as usual in the USA. And it will surely be exciting and worth watching.

What do you think? Please log in and let us know.

Hillary 2016!

(Photo: Xinhua)

by David Parmer

Hillary. In American politics, in 2014, that one word is enough. Google “Hill…” in Google News, and the first suggestion that you get will be: “Hillary Rodham Clinton.” The next general election is in 2016, but it looks as if the campaign has already begun. Like runners milling about the starting line of a marathon, stretching, getting hydrated and pacing around to burn off nervous energy, a list of potential candidates both Republican and Democrat are waiting for the starting gun of the 2016 election.

For the record, as of August 2014, Hillary says she has not decided whether to run or not. It is a clever tactic, for once she does declare, the race is on, and it doesn’t end until election day 2016. Now she has space to prepare and explore options without intense media scrutiny. (There is still plenty of scrutiny, just not at the white hot level it will be when she surely does announce her candidacy.) It seems, that, as for now, as the old saying goes, she is getting her ducks in order. Some of that ordering is thought to be learning from the mistakes she made in 2008 when she ran for the nomination against Barack Obama. And making sure they don’t happen again.

So maybe Hillary won’t run? Not a chance. A glance at Clinton’s career track from Girl Scout to Wellesley College to Yale Law to political staffer to high-powered attorney to First Lady of the U.S. to Senator to rival for the 2008 Democratic nomination to 67th Secretary of State of the United States, points to one thing: the Presidency.

Hillary Rodham Clinton, indeed, has an impressive track record. Starting out as a conservative Republican she has morphed into being a mainstream Democrat. Along the way she has consistently championed women’s and children’s rights. In foreign policy she has advocated “smart power ” a mix of hard and soft power that includes military, economic capabilities, alliances and partnerships. And while she was at State, she visited 112 countries the most of any secretary of state.

So when will Hillary “decide” ? Maybe early next year. Or maybe the race has already begun and she is ahead, out in front and heading for that goal line that she can see ever so clearly. The media seems to think so, and probably most Americans do too. Whatever the outcome, whether she runs for President or not, it is clear Hillary will do it on her terms.

Will Iraq survive? Should it?

On August 14,2014 Iraq’s prime minister, Nouri al Maliki, agreed to step down. He is to be replaced by Haider al Abadi. But will Maliki’s resignation clear the air? Does a united Iraq have a chance? Some say that the dissolution of Iraq has already happened and that separate Shi’a, Sunni and Kurd regions are de-facto a new country. Can some type of federal system exist? Can Mr. al Abadi undo the factionalism created by Mr. al Maliki? Is Iraq as we know it finished? Will it survive? Should it? Please log in and post your comments.

Photo: US Dep. of State via flickr

Kurdistan’s Peshmerga–Key Players In A New Game

(Photo: Enno Lenze/flickr)

by David Parmer

News reports on 18 August 2014 report that Iraqi special forces together with Kurdish peshmerga and supported by U.S. and Iraqi air power have taken back the Mosul Dam from IS (Islamic State) fighters. The Mosul dam, located on the Tigris river, is a key objective in the fight with IS forces, as it supplies electric power to northern Iraq and its destruction would cause flooding and devastation to most of the country.

The question is, who are these peshmerga, and how do they fit into the puzzle that is the ever-changing face of the early 21st century middle east?

The peshmerga (“those who face death”) who have a reputation as fierce and disciplined fighters, are the soldiers of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurdish people (numbering around 25 million) have no independent homeland, but are scattered around the region from Iraq and Iran to Turkey and Syria. While organized Kurdish military have existed since the sundown of the Ottoman empire, it was not until December 1945 when Mustafa Barzani created the short-lived Mahabad Republic that the peshmerga came into being. These forces fought in the Kurd-Iraq war and in the rebellion against the central government. Finally in a Kurdish civil war the KDP, Kurdish Democratic Party fought with the PUK, Party for United Kurdistan until a U.S. brokered peace deal was put in place. During the U.S. Invasion of Iraq there was U.S.-Kurdish cooperation, and in 2003, the peshmerga joined U.S. Special Forces in defeating Saddam Hussein.

After Saddam’s downfall the Kurds were granted a semi-independent region in the new Iraq. The peshmerga remained intact under the new government, and continued to have a reputation for being an effective military force. Then in 2014, in a spillover from the Syrian war, ISIS, or the Islamic State as it is now called, started to seize territory in northern Iraq in a effort to establish an Islamic caliphate. Initially, IS forces were thought to be headed for Bagdad, but they attacked north instead taking territory and routing the Iraqi army, seizing abandoned heavy weapons and armor at the same time.

In August 2014 the peshmerga were pushed back, and it looked like key Kurdish territory would fall to the IS offensive. The U.S. acted relatively quickly. On 8 August 2014 President Obama ordered bombing of IS positions and targets and promised military support.

Numbers of us military personnel have been increased, and there are now an estimated 1,000 U.S. troops involved.

There was general surprise that the peshmerga had been pushed back so soundly by IS. Retreating in itself is not the end in warfare: commanders from George Washington to Mao Zedong have had to retreat time and again, and gone on to ultimate victory. But the temporary defeat seems to have tarnished the reputation of the peshmerga and given a wake-up call to all concerned.

In the August 2014 war, the peshmerga had to face battle-hardened IS forces, that were tough, committed and confident. The peshmerga were skilled in guerrilla warfare, but they faced the newly heavily-armed IS forces who fought a new type of semi-conventional fight. IS forces simply overwhelmed them.

In a blog post for the Washington Institute, Michael Knights cites several reasons for the poor Kurdish performance.

Poor positioning of forces
Kurd rivalry
Alienation of Sunni tribes
Inexperienced troops
Shortages of equipment and logistics

The upshot of the August action has been commitments from several nations to support the peshmerga. These include the U.S., and Britain, with reports of Iranian involvement as well. The peshmerga have, and are to receive weapons and logistical support as well as air support and intelligence.

The support seems to be working, and in the first major action, Iraqi and Kurdish forces have moved on the Mosul dam and driven out IS fighters. So for the present it looks like the Kurds will be the surrogates of many parties interested in seeing IS stopped, and will get all the support they need. The concern in the west is that a resurgent Kurdish military will further fuel hopes for an independent Kurdish homeland. But for the time being, in northern Iraq, the peshmerga are the only game in town.

Willing to face death: A history of Kurdish military forces

http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3203&context=etd

What Iraq’s Kurdish Peshmerga Really Need

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/what-iraqs-kurdish-peshmerga-really-need