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Turkey The New Regional Power?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

The face of Turkey today is the face of its leader and president, Recp Tayyip Erdogan. Mr. Erdogan is imposing his vision of the way things might be not just on his own country, but also on his region and indeed the world.

The once proud and powerful Ottoman Empire disappeared after WWI, but it seems to many that the president is determined to bring back the days of glory when the Ottoman Turks were both feared and respected. Mr. Erdogan, using a combination of soft power and military force, might just be the man to do it.

Under Mr. Erdogan Turkey has asserted and inserted itself around its region and beyond. In the not-too-distant past Turkey joined NATO as its only Islamic member and was looking toward possible EU membership. But then Turkey began to assert its own policy which while not anti-western was certainly pro-Turkey.

In home waters Turkey has had an ongoing dispute with the EU over drilling for energy resources off Cyprus. The dispute began in 2018 regarding the exclusive economic zone around Cyprus. Despite opposition and recommendations from the European Council in 2019 Turkey has continued with its exploration activities.

In 2016 the powerful Turkish military began an incursion into Syria to defeat the Islamic State (ISIS/ DAESH). A long and bloody conflict ensued which had its roots all the way back to 2011. During its involvement in the Syrian civil war Turkey has lost at least 300 personnel killed and had numerous aircraft and armored vehicles destroyed. Turkey conducted another major incursion into Syria in 2019 to protect its borders and remove pro-Kurdish forces.

In January 2020 Turkey entered the Libyan civil war on the side of the side of the GNA or Government of National Accord, the established government of Libya. Turkey has reportedly supplied intelligence support, air and naval support as well as introducing Syrian mercenary fighters in support of the government. Turkey’s support and the victory of its proxies would demonstrate to the region and o the world Turkey’s ability to project power and influence the outcome of regional conflicts. In 2020 Turkey has also backed Azerbaijan in its fight with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

And it is not just its neighbors and the Europeans with whom Turkey is asserting itself, now it is the United States. In what seems to be a “no winner” contest Turkey and the US are embroiled in a very unfriendly discussion over Turkey’s decision to buy the Russian S-400 “Triumf” missile system, and incredibly lethal air defense weapon that far surpasses the US Patriot missile system.

Turkey was on board to buy the Patriot system but the US refused the technology transfer that would enable it to be copied and built. The Turks retaliated by turning to Russia for the S-400 system and the US retaliated by excluding Turkey (a NATO partner) from its F35 fighter jet program. As of later 2020, Turkey is going ahead with its S-400 acquisition (including test firing) and the US is talking sanctions.

It seems that Mr. Erdogan is determined to make Turkey a real regional power going forward. The Turkish economy is predicted to make a healthy rebound in 2021 despite some contraction. Given that and the president’s popularity among the voters, there is a good chance that modern Turkey just might become the new Ottoman Empire, at least in spirit.

Photo: Pavel Vanka via flickr

Turkey’s Military Fully Capable Of Projecting Power.

by David Parmer / Tokyo

The Turks live in a rough neighborhood–their country borders Iran, Iraq, Syria, and just across the Black Sea is Russia. So for defense alone they have to have credible military power. Moreover challenges often lie across the border, and they must have the ability to project power cross-border to defend what they see as their national interests. An example of this cross-border power projection was their October 2019 incursion into northern Syria in the wake of US withdrawal.

The Kurdish insurgency has always been a stone in their shoe, and so when the Kurds lost their American shield, it was the perfect vacuum in which to cross the border and deal with the long-standing issue of the Kurdish threat. Turkey easily has the power to do that, and their strength is impressive.

Estimates are that Turkey has 3/4 of a million soldiers under arms with another 1/2 million in reserve. They also have 4200 tanks of all types and 10,000 assorted armored vehicles, 475 helicopters, 1300 self-propelled artillery pieces and 1500 towed artillery pieces. They have over 500 combat aircraft including 270 F16 fighters-the biggest fleet outside of the US military. Although not playing a role in the current cross-border situation, they have a robust but small naval force of 16 frigates and 14 type-209 submarines. They also possess cruise missiles with a range of more that 150 miles.

Kurdish forces were, and are, no match for Turkish might, particularly without their American “allies.” News reports suggest that in the vacuum left by the Americans, the Kurds turned to President Bashar al Assad’s regime and its Russian allies for help. The Russians are now co-patrolling northern Syria with the Turks. It is indeed a complicated situation, for Turkey is a staunch NATO ally, and NATO faces off mainly against Russia.

Turkey gets its military hardware mainly from the US and Germany, NATO allies of theirs. They also have their own defense industry to make equipment like armored vehicles of all types. A surprise for NATO was President Erdogan’s decision to buy the powerful and deadly Russian S-400 Triumph air defense missile system instead of comparable equipment from American or other non-Russian suppliers.

That being said, President Erdogan has to walk a thin line between Russian and the US, its main supplier of military equipment, its NATO partner and the tenant at his Inchlink airbase. However, it is fairly clear that Turkey will not only act in what it sees as its self-interest, but will use its massive military power as it sees fit and will be willing to face criticism or even harsh sanctions to do so.

It is a complicated situation for all parties concerned. What is your opinion on this matter?

Photo:BMC Turkey, https://www.bmc.com.tr/en/corporate/press-center

Kurdistan’s Peshmerga–Key Players In A New Game

(Photo: Enno Lenze/flickr)

by David Parmer

News reports on 18 August 2014 report that Iraqi special forces together with Kurdish peshmerga and supported by U.S. and Iraqi air power have taken back the Mosul Dam from IS (Islamic State) fighters. The Mosul dam, located on the Tigris river, is a key objective in the fight with IS forces, as it supplies electric power to northern Iraq and its destruction would cause flooding and devastation to most of the country.

The question is, who are these peshmerga, and how do they fit into the puzzle that is the ever-changing face of the early 21st century middle east?

The peshmerga (“those who face death”) who have a reputation as fierce and disciplined fighters, are the soldiers of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurdish people (numbering around 25 million) have no independent homeland, but are scattered around the region from Iraq and Iran to Turkey and Syria. While organized Kurdish military have existed since the sundown of the Ottoman empire, it was not until December 1945 when Mustafa Barzani created the short-lived Mahabad Republic that the peshmerga came into being. These forces fought in the Kurd-Iraq war and in the rebellion against the central government. Finally in a Kurdish civil war the KDP, Kurdish Democratic Party fought with the PUK, Party for United Kurdistan until a U.S. brokered peace deal was put in place. During the U.S. Invasion of Iraq there was U.S.-Kurdish cooperation, and in 2003, the peshmerga joined U.S. Special Forces in defeating Saddam Hussein.

After Saddam’s downfall the Kurds were granted a semi-independent region in the new Iraq. The peshmerga remained intact under the new government, and continued to have a reputation for being an effective military force. Then in 2014, in a spillover from the Syrian war, ISIS, or the Islamic State as it is now called, started to seize territory in northern Iraq in a effort to establish an Islamic caliphate. Initially, IS forces were thought to be headed for Bagdad, but they attacked north instead taking territory and routing the Iraqi army, seizing abandoned heavy weapons and armor at the same time.

In August 2014 the peshmerga were pushed back, and it looked like key Kurdish territory would fall to the IS offensive. The U.S. acted relatively quickly. On 8 August 2014 President Obama ordered bombing of IS positions and targets and promised military support.

Numbers of us military personnel have been increased, and there are now an estimated 1,000 U.S. troops involved.

There was general surprise that the peshmerga had been pushed back so soundly by IS. Retreating in itself is not the end in warfare: commanders from George Washington to Mao Zedong have had to retreat time and again, and gone on to ultimate victory. But the temporary defeat seems to have tarnished the reputation of the peshmerga and given a wake-up call to all concerned.

In the August 2014 war, the peshmerga had to face battle-hardened IS forces, that were tough, committed and confident. The peshmerga were skilled in guerrilla warfare, but they faced the newly heavily-armed IS forces who fought a new type of semi-conventional fight. IS forces simply overwhelmed them.

In a blog post for the Washington Institute, Michael Knights cites several reasons for the poor Kurdish performance.

Poor positioning of forces
Kurd rivalry
Alienation of Sunni tribes
Inexperienced troops
Shortages of equipment and logistics

The upshot of the August action has been commitments from several nations to support the peshmerga. These include the U.S., and Britain, with reports of Iranian involvement as well. The peshmerga have, and are to receive weapons and logistical support as well as air support and intelligence.

The support seems to be working, and in the first major action, Iraqi and Kurdish forces have moved on the Mosul dam and driven out IS fighters. So for the present it looks like the Kurds will be the surrogates of many parties interested in seeing IS stopped, and will get all the support they need. The concern in the west is that a resurgent Kurdish military will further fuel hopes for an independent Kurdish homeland. But for the time being, in northern Iraq, the peshmerga are the only game in town.

Willing to face death: A history of Kurdish military forces

http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3203&context=etd

What Iraq’s Kurdish Peshmerga Really Need

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/what-iraqs-kurdish-peshmerga-really-need