日本語
English
中国語2014 is already half over. A series of international crises have come and gone and come. Ukraine which started the year off at center stage seems to have settled itself for the time being. Long standing ethnic differences have receded, but could flare up at any time. Russia seems to have lost interest in cold-war-ear-type brinksmanship in Ukraine. But out of nowhere Islamic militants calling themselves ISIS have come on center stage, declaring a state or Caliphate in the Syria, Iraq region. And the Sunni-Shia rivalry that was on the back burner has now, again, come to full boil. The South China Sea is quiet, although all concerned parties seem to be jockeying for position and preparing for the next round. So this week’s question is: What area of the globe do you think the next crisis will take place in? What region will capture world attention for the second half of 2014. Please log in and post your comments below.
Asian Waters—The Mighty Mekong in Crisis
Mekong Floating Market Viet Nam (Wikimedia)
by David Parmer
There is an old saying, “You can’t step in the same river twice.” Rivers by their nature flow and can be seen as manifestations of change. The Chinese concept of the nature of the universe, the Tao, was probably derived from the observation of flowing water. So a river changing is nothing surprising. Sadly, it seems as though, against all hope, Asia’s mighty Mekong River may be on the verge of irreversible change that will negatively impact millions of people locally, and countless people globally.
The Mekong River, Asia’s 12th longest waterway makes its way from the Tibetan plateau through China’s tropical Yunan province and south into Burma where it forms the Burma-Laos border, onward south where it again forms a border, this time the Laos- Thailand border. It enters Cambodia and exits into Vietnam’s Mekong delta and finally empties into the South China Sea. It is 4300 km or 2600 miles long.
The river, which is often considered to be of two main sections: upper Mekong and lower Mekong, is rich in biodiversity. It is said to be second only to the Amazon in this regard, and is home to more than 1200 species of fishes and one species of fresh water dolphin as well as the giant catfish which can be 3m long and weigh up to 300kg. Seasonal variations in flow and rapids make navigation along the Mekong difficult, but a lively trade takes place along its length, and up to 2.5 million tons of fish are harvested from its waters each year.
In 1995 four of the six river stakeholders, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam set up the Mekong River Commission to foster river development and promote the livelihood of people along the river. China and Burma did not join the group, but are considered “dialogue partners.”
Left alone, or managed well, the river could sustain life for generations to come. Unfortunately, such does not seem to be the course of future events. The river is now under threat from a number of sources. World Wildlife Funds cites climate change, illegal wildlife trade, pollution, climate change and hydropower to be the main challenges. Of these, damming for electric power is the most potentially devastating because of its effects on local water levels and fish habitat.
Dams (Proposed and Existing) on the Lower Mekong
Dams have already affected the various river ecosystems, but the most troubling are the proposed dams in Laos, which aims to become “the battery of Southeast Asia” by selling electric power to its neighbors. Piecemeal and uncoordinated development along the length of this great waterway looks to be the course of future events, and will clearly not be in the long term interest of the people who make their living from the mighty Mekong.
International Rivers, Lower Mekong Factsheet: http://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/the-lower-mekong-dams-factsheet-text-7908
WWF, Greater Mekong: https://www.worldwildlife.org/places/greater-mekong
Yasukuni Shrine Summer 2014
Yasukuni Shrine, Kudan Tokyo (Wikimedia)
Summer 2014 has come to Tokyo. The rainy season will finish in a week or so and the infamous Kanto summer heat will be here until the very end of September. Students will have a summer vacation, and office workers will be able to spend a few days with their families at the beach or in the mountains. And in August the Obon holiday will be observed. Obon is a time when Japanese people honor their ancestors, visit cemeteries and clean the gravesites. August 15th marks the end of WWII, and is a time when Japanese lawmakers visit the shrine to honor the war dead. Some say that the Japanese see Yasukuni Shrine the same way as Americans see Arlington national cemetery. But Japan’s neighbors, and wartime foes see it as a glorification of militarism, and a continuing symptom of Japan’s inability to come to terms with its imperial past. Tensions in East Asia are certainly at an all-time postwar high, and it is unlikely that the Japanese government members will deviate from their customary visit to the shrine, or that Japan’s neighbors will accept the shrine visits as normal and proper. So, what will we see in the summer of 2014? It looks like tensions will certainly continue to rise, and that Yasukuni will remain squarely in focus this summer.
China Housing Market-So Far, the 2014 Numbers Are Down
(Photo: China Daily Mail)
by David Parmer
Before 1987, terms like “supply and demand” and “buyer’s market” were probably unknown in China except to a few specialists. In 2014, the reality of these concepts, if not the theory, is common knowledge. China’s housing market is a good case in point. After a go-go market that looked like it would extend out to the horizon, reality has settled in it seems. Oversupply has arrived in China’s housing market, with estimates of around 50,000+ unsold units in China’s first-tier eastern cities. The market is characterized as having big inventories combined with sluggish sales.
The currency trading website Forex Minute reported on June 13, 2014 that sales are down 11% from a year ago and construction of new properties are down 19% for the January-May period as compared to the previous year. Sellers are taking counter-measures by offering various incentives to buyers, and in some cases price cuts. Evergrand Real Estate has cut prices by 15% according to Reuters and sales are trending upward. Meanwhile,the present oversupply is causing ripple effects throughout the greater Chinese economy. Industries like iron and steel making, cement manufacturing, tile making and furniture wholesaling are feeling the pinch. Workers’ wages in all of the above industries are also negatively impacted by the slowdown. Property investment accounts for a hefty 12% of China’s GDP. The government’s target of 7.5% growth for the current fiscal year could be in doubt.
Some analysts predict deep price cutting in the second half of the year that could result in sales targets for 2014 being met. Also banks seem reluctant to underwrite the housing market, and tight lending seems to be the order of the day. The result could be an adjustment in oversupply, which, combined with price cutting, could see the market beginning to stabilize by early 2015.
Iraq IS a hard place…
Things seemed to be going so well, and then? They weren’t. This last week has seen what looks like a full-fledged civil war beginning in Iraq. What happened? The U.S. left, elections were held and things moved along. Some sort of balance seemed to be holding among Sunnis, Shia and Kurds. And then it wasn’t. Alliances were made. Reports have former Bath party members joining with Sunnis. Militants and foreign fighters, too radical even for Al Qaeda, called ISIS, marched on Baghdad. The government of prime minister Nouri al-Malaki seems powerless to stop them. The U.S. said it won’t intervene, but that it will…send advisors and maybe… What is going on? From the “Arab Spring” to this? What is going on? Log in and let us know your opinion.
Person of Interest: Elon Musk
NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, left, congratulates SpaceX CEO and Chief Designer Elon Musk in front of the historic Dragon capsule that returned to Earth on May 31 following the first successful mission by a private company to carry supplies to the International Space Station on June 13, 2012 at the SpaceX facility in McGregor, Texas. (Photo: Wikimedia)
by David Parmer
If he did not exist…we would have to invent him.
If we were going to write a comic book, what the Japanese call “manga” and hipsters in Seattle call a “graphic novel,” we would need a hero. How about inventing an enigmatic hero, bigger than life who experiences a lonely childhood tinkering with computers on the southernmost part of the planet, then in his teens migrates to one of the most northern countries and begins university studies. After that he gains admission to a prestigious university in that country’s southern neighbor where he studies physics and economics at one of the nation’s top B-schools. He then starts a Ph.D. program at another elite school, but drops out after two days, whereupon he begins his stellar rise, i.e., a rise to the stars. First he hacks the financial system, makes it ridiculously easy to send money around the globe. From this he makes a cool $1.5 billion, then he goes on to co-found an electric car company named after the patron saint of geeks everywhere. He gets electric cars on the road, and along the way releases his patents so that others-without having to license his technology-can also build electric cars. He does this out of altruism, but also to get the industry (of which he is positioned squarely at the forefront) going. Sounds like a pretty good story? Shall we stop there, no, let’s keep going. He has an “interest” in space. He wants to see humans get off the planet, he is worried about our survival as a species. (What if a humongous asteroid hits the Earth? What if some virus threatens to wipe us all out?) So he forms a company, calls it Space X, and launches the first commercial satellite from a liquid fueled vehicle, and then gets a contract to send cargo to the planet’s orbiting space lab. He also plans to modify the cargo vehicle to carry a human crew into the far reaches of space. Well, OK, first to Mars– but a couple of decades before the nation’s space agency plans to do so. That should be enough for a good story, but wait, let’s add more: how about he invests in solar technology? His company becomes the largest provider of solar power systems and he plans a factory to be the biggest producer of solar panels on Earth. Finally, how about we add two wives and five children? OK, done. So what should we call the hero of our manga/graphic novel? Hmmmm. How about Elon Musk?
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/currency/2014/06/elon-musk-shares-tesla-patents.html
Massive AliBaba IPO Still On Track
Alibaba founder, Jack Ma ( WEF)
This summer promises the launch of what might be one of the biggest IPOs (Initial Public Offering) in history. China’s Hangzhou-based e-commerce giant Alibaba will be listed in New York soon, some say on August 8, which is seen as an auspicious date. Estimates of the size of the IPO range from a conservative $USD 20 billion to $USD 150 billion to $USD 200 billion. Besides its B-to-B flagship unit, Alibaba also has an online marketplace, Taobao, and AliPay, its financial arm that is bigger than PayPal. So if you are investing this year, would you buy some Alibaba stock for your portfolio? Please log in and post your thoughts.
U.S. Issues 2014 Report on PLA
(Chinese Infantry Photo: U.S. Gov. Def. Wikimedia)
by David Parmer
Public Law 106-65, provides that the Secretary of Defense shall submit a report “in both classified and unclassified form, on military and security developments involving the People’s Republic of China. The report shall address the current and probable future course of military-technological development of the People’s Liberation Army and the tenets and probable development of Chinese security strategy and military strategy, and of the military organizations and operational concepts supporting such development over the next 20 years. The report shall also address United States- China engagement and cooperation on security matters during the period covered by the report, including through United States-China military-to-military contacts, and the United States strategy for such engagement and cooperation in the future.” (Prologue U.S. Defense Annual Report to Congress 2014)
The United States Department of Defense has released its annual report on China’s military. Titled “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” The report states that the PRC continues its long-range modernization program that will improve its ability to fight and win short-duration high-intensity conflicts. China has focus on Taiwan, but is also the South and East China seas.
Military relations between the U.S. and China are expanding, but the U.S. side has concerns about China’s transparency regarding its real military spending figures.
In 2013, the report continues, relations were good, and the U.S. calls on China “to contribute constructively to efforts with the United States, our allies and partners and the greater international community to maintain peace and stability.”
The report consists of six chapters: four special topics and three appendixes.
- Annual update
- Understanding China Strategy
- Force Modernization goals land Trends
- Resources For Force Modernization
- Force Modernization For A Taiwan Contingency
- U.S.-China Military-to-Military Contacts
There are also four special topics and three appendixes. One of the special topics deals with China’s first aircraft carrier and one of the appendixes deals with China and Taiwan forces data.
China’s reaction was swift, and not positive. In a China Daily (USA) article entitled “Experts take aim at ‘biased’ Pentagon report on China” China’s Ministry of Defense is quoted as stating: “It is completely wrong that Washington issues this so-called report year after year, making irresponsible accusations over China’s normal development of its national defense and military.”
http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_china_report_final.pdf
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/2014-06/09/content_17573999.htm
Did Russia Blink?
The troubles in Ukraine continue. Despite separatist threats, intimidation and disruption, elections in the former Soviet republic were held. Russian troop strength on Ukraine’s borders has reportedly decreased. Kiev is working to get control of the country and deal with the situation in its eastern provinces. And what of Russia’s involvement in this matter: have the leaders in the Kremlin thought twice about the costs of what is to be gained and lost in meddling in Ukraine’s internal affairs? Has Russia been reassured, or does it fear a NATO noose slowly tightening around its neck? Are proposed sanctions the reason Russia has backed off, or is Russia simply biding its time? Please log in and post your thoughts.
Person of Interest: U.S. Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel
(Photo: Dep. of Defense)
by David Parmer
“To question your government is not unpatriotic–to not question your government is unpatriotic.”
On February 26, 2013, then Senator Chuck Hagel was confirmed as the 24th Secretary of Defense of the United States. His confirmation was not without controversy. Nominated on Jan 7, 2013 by President Barak Obama, he faced stiff grilling from congress, particularly his Republican colleagues. His nomination was the first ever to be filibustered. Ostensibly, congress was concerned about his support for Israel, which is a pillar of American foreign policy. Ultimately Hagel weathered the storm and was nominated. One would think that Republicans would be glad to have one of their own in a top position in a Democratic administration, and would have given him a pass. And the reason they didn’t? Probably very simple: from the beginning of his political career, Chuck Hagel has been his own man, i.e. he has followed his conscience and done what he sees as right and good for the country, not just his own party.
Hagel has had a steady, if not meteoric rise to the top. He was born on October 4, 1946 in North Platte, Nebraska the oldest of six children. He attended Catholic high school, started technical school and then volunteered for the U.S. Army. He served in Vietnam, was wounded twice and rose to the rank of sergeant. After the Army, he worked in various jobs in radio, and attended the University of Nebraska, graduating in 1971 with a degree in history. Hagel’s career in politics began when he was a staffer for Nebraska Republican Congressman John Y. McCollistor. After working as a lobbyist, he served on Ronald Regan’s successful presidential campaign. In the 1980s he cofounded Vanguard Cellular Systems, and in 1996 launched his own senate campaign. He was a U.S. senator from 1997-2009. During the Iraq war Senator Hagel was critical of the Bush administration and the policies of his own party. He was openly critical of Bush insiders like Carl Rove. He also strongly opposed Bush’s 2007 plan to send another 20,000 troops to Iraq.
From 2009, following his retirement from the senate and prior to his nomination in 2013, Hagel was a professor at the Edmund A Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He also continued to pursue his various business interests.
Secretary Hagel has come aboard in some interesting times. And the global chess board, once intelligible and potentially manageable, now looks more like a game of Jumanji. As Secretary of Defense he must deal with multiple challenges, including America’s pivot to Asia and its support for its Asian allies in the face of growing disputes with China, Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and the ongoing challenges of terrorism, failed states and the nuclear threat from North Korea.
The spearhead of American power must be sharp, but the spear must be wielded judiciously. And who better to do it than Chuck Hagel, a former soldier who has seen the face of war firsthand and knows the costs of war.
(Compiled from Web sources)