Grumpy Old Men |

By Bill Lee

With the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics slated to kick off in a few days, North Korea will likely “hijack” (US Vice President Mike Pence) the Olympics with their “charm offensive” (Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono).

After Kim Jong Un offered to hold talks with South Korea about sending North Korean athletes to the winter Olympics in his New Year’s address this year, the Kim regime has succeeded from going to sending a few athletes to dispatching a delegation of over 500 North Koreans, including its Moranbang girl band, a 229-member female cheer squad, and an art troupe, not to mention 22 athletes. The icing on the cake will be one of the most powerful figures in the regime, not 90-year-old Kim Jong Nam, president of the Supreme People’s Assembly Presidium, but 30-year-old Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s younger sister and deputy director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department, who, being Kim Jong Un’s closest blood relative, is supposed to wield great power in the regime. While Mike Pence dourly announced that the United States will unleash its “toughest sanctions ever,” this “Ivanka Trump of the Kim regime” is likely to steal Mike Pence’s “thunder” (Daily Beast) in Pyeongchang. Another PR victory for Pyongyang.

The question is what will happen after the Pyeongchang Paralympics conclude on March 18. Despite the ramped-up UN, US, and Japanese sanctions on North Korea, the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based think tank, issued a new report detailing that 49 countries violated international sanctions against North Korea up to 2017. There have been numerous media reports describing how North Korea evades the sanctions by using front companies, going through third countries, reflagging cargo ships, targeting corrupt governments, and so on. With so many leaks, it is likely the ship of sanctions will list badly if not sink.

In his statement in Tokyo, Pence trotted out the tired old demand for North Korea’s “complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization,” a sure non-starter for dialogue. If the United States agrees to the starting of talks with Pyongyang on the condition that North Korea agrees to suspend its nuclear and missile tests but makes the above-mentioned demand the ultimate end, the talks will collapse. That will lead to the resumption of at least North Korea’s missile tests. North Korea has only tested its Hwasong-14 ICBM twice and its Hwasong-15 ICBM once. Experts say a minimum of five test-launches is necessary for a missile to be ready to be deployed. Back to square one.

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