Chinese Economy #1 By 2016?

A report released this spring by the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Development predicts that China will be the leading world economy by 2016. The report titled OECD Economic Surveys China 2013 is available on the OECD website. In addition to analysis, it also contains policy recommendations including recommendations on Macro-structural policies, financial sector reform, competition and innovation, urbanization, intergovernmental fiscal relations and greening growth.

 The Chinese economy showed a steady double-digit growth to become the world’s second largest economy in 2010.  Growth for the first part of 2013 has been reported at 7.7%. The Chinese economy faces a number of problems including a re-balancing from an economy based on investment and exports to a more consumption-driven one. Other problems citied include property prices, an aging population, social inequality and the environmental costs of growth.

 Many believe that it is a bit premature to dismiss the current world’s number one economy, the United States. Vast stores of shale oil and gas are coming online, and analysts predict that the U.S. will be energy self-sufficient by 2020, and that the U.S. could easily become an energy exporter. This will give the U.S. a definite advantage over economies that will still have to rely on Gulf-region oil supplies in the second decade of this century.

 OECD Economic Surveys China 2013 Overview (PDF)

http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Overview_CHINA.pdf