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Is Trump a political genius?

By Bill Lee

“The only time I’ve ever seen China worried is when they’re not sure what the US is going to do,” Victor Cha, a former advisor on Asian affairs in the G.W. Bush administration, was quoted as saying in a recent New York Times article. President Trump’s “unpredictability” is causing consternation in capitals around the world. Some view Trump’s impulsiveness as a clever tactic to keep adversaries (and friends) off guard and give him leverage. Perhaps. But based on his performance so far, some simple rules have emerged for not being fooled by Trump and for dealing with him.

First, as has been repeatedly pointed out, Trump is a master of distraction, a political genius at it. Just look at the recent missile strike on the Shayrat Airfield in Syria. With a simple order, Trump managed to:

demonstrate that the US is not reluctant to use military force,
show he is a person who cares about babies,
distract attention from a tough US-China summit,
give Xi Jinping a dramatic, firsthand look at the apparatus of American power and send him a message that the US could bypass China and attack North Korea,
turn attention away from the US Congressional investigations into Trump-Russia ties.

Should we assume that Trump’s sleight-of-hand distractions are the result of conscious calculations or random, bull-in-the-china-shop impulsiveness? I believe the former. Trump’s absurd claim that Barack Obama had him wiretapped at least shifted attention away from the Russia investigations.

Then here are some simple rules for dealing with Trump:

Don’t fall for distractions; look for the problem he is trying to evade.
Never believe his hyperbolic descriptions. Trump is fond of describing things as “disastrous,” “the worst ever,” “unbelievable,” etc. When Trump said he had developed an “outstanding” relationship with Xi Jinping, it means the two can be in the same room together without coming to blows.
Don’t believe that Trump worries about contradictions (“I support nuclear non-proliferation and it’s OK for Japan and South Korea to have nukes”), reversals of policies (viz. Syria), or hypocrisy (professions of horror about killed Syrian children but banning refugees from Syria); in other words, don’t believe he will be guided by usual constraints of rationality.
Don’t be afraid to believe Trump will back down (to wit, his quick acceptance of the one-China policy).

If we follow these rules, I believe we will be less likely to be surprised by President Trump and more able to make sense of his words and actions.

Tsai’s Taiwan One Year Later

David Parmer/Tokyo

May 20, 2017 will mark the first anniversary of Tsai Ing-wen’s presidency. It seems that many people’s high hopes for her presidency have not been fulfilled in these first 12 months. Two reasons given for her approval rating in the 30s are the economic stagnation that has not lifted, and disappointment among her more radical DPP supporters who would like to see a tougher stance towards Beijing.

Tsai’s first year was not a complete non-starter. She dealt with Beijing’s pressure on travel and tourism by initiating a New Southern Policy that was aimed at bringing Asian travelers and investors to Taiwan and welcoming new immigrants with revised visa requirements. Tsai also made a bold move by calling President-elect Donald Trump to wish him well. This was the first contact between presidents of both countries since 1979.

A year ago Tsai gave a lukewarm and ambiguous nod to the 1992 Consensus and “one China” policy. While this was not satisfactory in Beijing’s eyes, there was no mention of the “I” word (Independence) in her speech then, or since. In the year that followed her inauguration Tsai visited Central America and tried to shore up support among the ROC’s few diplomatic allies. China, meanwhile, continued to put pressure on international organizations to ban Taiwan participation.

President Tsai’s inauguration speech last May was filled with hope and vision. Her first year has come and gone. While there has been no major crisis, particularly in cross-strait relations, there has been no improvement either. It seems it is easy to envision a new order when one is campaigning, but much more difficult to execute once one is sitting at the presidential desk. (See Donald Trump on this.)

What will President Tsai’s second year bring? Please let us know what you think.

Photo: DPP FaceBook

Asian Waters – The Timeless Yangtze River

by David Parmer/Tokyo

China’s Long River (Cheng Jiang) is better known to the rest of the world as the Yangtze. It is the third longest river in the world, and the longest river in Asia. Like the Ganges and the Mekong you can’t read about Asian history, economics or politics without coming across a mention, or several mentions of the Yangtze.

The river originates on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and flows 6300km to the East China Sea. It flows through nine of China’s provinces and is considered the boundary between North China and South China.

In 208 AD the Battle of Red Cliffs was fought on the Yangtze southwest of Wuhan, preventing the warlord Cao Cao from capturing South China. Several centuries later in 1949, the Yangtze played another key role in China’s history. On April 20th of that year, Communist forces crossed the Long River, sealing the fate of the Nationalist forces under Chaing Kai-shek and setting the stage for the final liberation of all of China.

The Chinese use the river for many purposes from simple drinking water to irrigation, sanitation, transportation and Industry. Upriver, industry makes use of the river water, while down near where it joins the sea it provides irrigation for the rich farmlands so important to China’s agriculture. The river area accounts for 70% of China’s rice production and 70% of her fishery production.

Besides being a major transportation artery, the river also supports a vibrant tourism industry. Steamers journey upriver to Chongqing passing the immense Three Gorges Dam in Hubei province, and magnificent river scenery welcomes visitors at every turn.

The Yangtze ecosystem is home to 350 species of fish as well as the Finless Porpoise and the Chinese Alligator, while at the far end of the river near Chongqing we can find the habitat of China’s most famous mammals, the giant pandas.

As with any developed country, China must deal with the problem of industrial pollution. China is acting to push back harder against polluters and has installed 52 water quality monitoring stations along the river. The government has also banned the construction of chemical zones within one kilometer of the river. China has also recruited people to act as river chiefs to report and control pollution and to promote ecological restoration. E-commerce giant Alibaba also joined forces with several environmental organizations to protect and promote safe water in China. These groups include the AlibabaFoundation, Friends of Nature, Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, Green Hunan, and Beijing Green Foundation.

China’s Long River can easily be considered one of its greatest assets after her people. The proper management and development of this treasure will ensure the river keeps giving is benefits for centuries to come.

Photo: Jialiang Gao via flickr

Uber: How The Mighty Have Fallen

by David Parmer/Tokyo

Sometimes it seems poor UBER just can’t catch a break. Bad news after bad news seems to head their way. The ride-hailing service just got banned from the country of Italy. A judge citing unfair competition ruled against the west-coast company. So no Roman holiday for UBER.

UBER is not doing so good at home either. Employee Susan Fowler has charged UBER with allowing sexual harassment to exist and not taking proper action, citing her own alleged sexual harassment as an example.

A “bro” culture that dismisses a visit to a Korean karaoke club cum escort service as old news seems to be out of touch with the 21st century. Add to this a lawsuit over technology for autonomous vehicles, i.e. self-driving cars where Waymo claims UBER is using stolen tech, and the pressure gets heavier.

Then there is this: UBER’s founder Travis Kalanick who was caught on camera berating an UBER driver and then having to make a public apology. With all of the above one might think that Mr. Kalanick might be on his way out and looking for the NEXT thing. But no, apparently something called a dual-class share structure lets the founder have more votes than other board members. So Mr. Kalanick is going nowhere soon.

You might also ask what lesson can be learned from the ongoing UBER saga. And it seems to be this–if you have a lock on the newest development in tech, you can be a jerk and run your company any way you wish, and at the end of the day wave your index finger and shout “We’re #1!” For a while.

Italy bans UBER: The Verge

UBER to investigate sexual harassment C/NET

Why UBER won’t fire its CEO backchannel

Photo: J.D. Lasica via flickr

Person of Interest : U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson

David Parmer/Tokyo

There is an old American saying, “What you see is what you get.” The saying has two meanings: firstly, perception colors belief, and secondly, there is no mystery or hidden meaning to the topic in question. As far as Mr. Rex Wayne Tillerson, 69th Secretary of State of The United States, there seems to be no real mystery. A Republican president has appointed a no-nonsense businessman to head the State Department. Not since George P. Schultz, the Reagan-era secretary of state, has such a powerful CEO and business leader been appointed to the office.

Tillerson is the former Chairman and CEO of the energy conglomerate ExxonMobil. Sixty-five-year-old Tillerson had been with them from the start of his career in 1975. While lifetime employment seems to be a thing of the past in many industries, Tillerson was a one-company man, rising steadily to the top job.

Of particular interest these days is the Secretary’s ties with Russia. Along the way he curated the company’s Russia operations and got to know Vladimir Putin well.

It was reported that in 2014 Tillerson came out against the Russia sanctions over the annexation of Crimea for being an ineffective policy. His personal connection to Putin might have been a deciding factor in Trump’s choice of Tillerson for State, but now with all the heat on the Trump administration for real and alleged ties to the Kremlin, this connection may not shine as brightly.

What you see with Tillerson is what you get: a hard working, successful business executive (whose take-home pays was $40million) from Texas, an engineer and a pragmatist. He embraces the Christian faith, was president of the Boy Scouts of America and keeps his Texas home.

The only question really seems to be how long he will continue to function in the chaotic Trump administration. Critics have noted his absence from key meetings with foreign leaders. Some critics hold that his real loyalties are still with the corporation that he has given his life to.

Will Mr. Tillerson be able to ride out the storm that is the first 100 days of the Trump administration? Will he be able to get his department functioning like a well-oiled machine, or will he wait a decent interval to retire to Texas and plan his next move?

Please let us know what you think about this.

Photo: U.S. Department of State via flickr

What’s in a word?

By Bill Lee

If you’re a soldier and you hear automatic-weapon and mortar fire very close by, do you say that you heard “fighting” or “armed conflict”? Japanese Self-Defense Force members participating in a UN PKO in Sudan in July last year faced that question. Since they were right next to the battlefield, and naturally pretty excited, they called it “hageshii sento” (fierce fighting). But SDF Joint Staff officers and the Abe administration wanted to call it “armed conflict.” The reason is because SDF personnel sent abroad cannot be in an active battle zone; if they are, it’s a violation of the Constitution. Hence the government insisted on the anodyne phrase “armed conflict.”

But the story gets murkier. The SDF soldiers had been writing daily logs in Sudan and sending them to Tokyo. The logs apparently had some raw, first-hand accounts of the actual situation in Sudan, where more than 200 people were killed in Juba last July. It was the kind of information that couldn’t get out; if it did, the government would be forced to withdraw the mission. Aware of their existence, a journalist requested access to the logs. The SDF responded that they had “completely discarded” the logs. It’s inconceivable that they would. Inevitable talk of a “cover-up” followed.

Our favorite magnet for controversy, Defense Minister Tomomi Inada — is there a political controversy in Japan she’s not a part of? — vowed to launch an investigation. In the end, the government decided to withdraw the mission from Sudan, ostensibly because the SDF engineering unit there had completed its duties. The SDF has had to tie itself in knots to avoid violating the war-renouncing Constitution, including, as the example above shows, in its use of language. Another tortured misrepresentation: calling what are clearly the MSDF’s light aircraft carriers “helicopter destroyers.” By the way, know when the first Japanese UN PKO could have been? In 1958, during the Lebanon crisis. It’s an interesting story why Japan couldn’t follow through on then UN Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold’s request. If it had, Japan’s international diplomacy may have taken a very different turn. I’ll look at this story in a future post.

Photo by UNMISS via Flickr

“All Options” Mean “None”

By Bill Lee

On his recent trip to Asia, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (apparently known in the State Department as the extinct T. Rex for his phantom existence there) indicated that Trump et al. have run out of patience with the Obama administration’s policy of “strategic patience,” which avoided dialogue with Pyongyang to pressure it to abandon its nuclear arsenal, and that “all options” are now on the table, which presumably includes a preemptive strike against North Korea. The apparent shift in US policy reveals the sheer paucity of the Trump administration’s thinking on North Korea.

It should be noted that the US military formulated a new operations plan, OPLAN 5015, for dealing with North Korea in 2015, during the Obama administration. As far as can be gleaned, the secret plan calls for more aggressive military action against missile and nuclear facilities and the decapitating of the Kim Jong Un regime, including, of course, the Supreme Commander himself. It also plans for a preemptive strike against North Korea. But as has been repeatedly pointed out, North Korea’s missile and nuclear facilities are virtually impossible to locate because they are underground and, in the case of missile launchers, mobile. Even assassinating Kim Jong Un would be very difficult because of his uncertain whereabouts and use of doppelgangers, which had been verifiably used by Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in volume. Moreover, a preemptive attack would certainly invite a massive artillery barrage on Seoul in retaliation, resulting in immense loss of life.

The only answer is dialogue with Pyongyang; indeed, Donald Trump himself said he would be willing to sit down for a “hamburger” with KJU. It is often (mistakenly) alleged that dialogue never works with North Korea because the regime always reneges on its promises. But that is not always true. Remember the 1994 Agreed Framework. North Korea agreed to freeze its nuclear development in exchange for proliferation-resistant nuclear reactors and 500,000 tons of heavy-fuel oil annually. But it was the US side that almost immediately reneged on the deal — initially the non-supply of the fuel oil — because of the Republican takeover of the US Congress in 1994. Dialogue appears to be the only answer. Who knows? The untethered Trump and the megalomaniacal Kim Jong Un may become soul partners in dialogue.

Photo by Bruce Thomas via Flickr

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How’s that working out? China’s bold urbanization plan

by Bill Lee

A young girl stands as a look-out for the police. “They’re coming,” she shouts to her father, Xiang Qingdang. Xiang owns a restaurant in the Chenzhai district in the typically large central Chinese city of Zhengzhou. He is a so-called “migrant” worker, although he has lived in Zhengzhou for 30 years. The authorities are chasing out the rural migrant workers like Xiang from the Chenzhai district, which is where the migrant workers are allowed to live, before they demolish the district as part of China’s National New-type Urbanization Plan.

Launched in 2014, the Plan looks brilliant on paper. Hoping to stimulate the economy, the government wants 100 million migrant workers to become an engine for generating domestic demand. Creating domestic demand comes from urbanization. The idea is that making this sea of workers full-fledged urban residents will raise their incomes through better jobs and unleash their consumption potential. Urbanization will spark investment in urban infrastructure, thus stimulating the economy. It looks very rational, and only a nation like China, with its strong capability for social engineering, could pull it off.

But can it resettle 100 million people away from the mega-cities like Zhengzhou or Shanghai to small- and medium-sized cities scattered around central China? Migrant workers living in Chenzhai have no choice. Since their dwellings will be razed, they have three choices: go back to their villages, resettle in one of the new cities, or try to stay in Zhengzhou. According to an NHK documentary aired last year, each choice poses difficulties. People like Xiang Qingdang haven’t been back to their villages in decades; they neither want to live there nor will they be very well-received. Resettling in a new city is a Catch-22-type dilemma: Xiang wants to open a restaurant in a nearby newly developed city but there are no people there now; people won’t move into the new city unless there are amenities like restaurants. And the hukou (household registration) system makes it very difficult for migrant workers to receive official permission to remain in the mega-cities.

It’s a bold plan that looks as if it could solve many of China’s problems. But as seen from the worldwide refugee crisis and, in Japan’s case, the resettlement of disaster victims, moving large masses of people is always fraught with unforeseen problems. Will China succeed where others haven’t?

Photo of Ding Zhou by Clarence kk via Flickr

Search Giant Baidu Looks To Self-driving Cars and AI

by David Parmer/Tokyo

When referring to Internet search, nobody says “Baidu-It!” Yet. That’s despite the fact that the Baidu search engine has about 80% of the China search market. In 2016 Baidu this didn’t seem to matter as the stock was down 13% for the year. The good news was the Q4 beat expectations and that expectations are good for Q1 2017 and the rest of the year. So investor confidence is up, and maybe 2016 will be remembered as just a speed bump on the way to Baidu’s bright new future that includes two emerging technologies.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Baidu’s President and co-founder, Robin Li, spoke of Baidu’s future direction with regard to AI and self-driving vehicles. Li’s opinion was that the age of mobile Internet has passed and that the age of AI is upon us. And while people on the other side of the Pacific jockey for position in the autonomous vehicle market, Baidu seems to have pole position in Asia.

Maybe from 2017 a lot more people will be Goggling Baidu to see what’s up.

Bloomberg Robin Li

Photo: Fortune Live Media via flickr

Sweden to Revive Draft for Both Men and Women

by David Parmer/Tokyo

Well, if you are 18 years old and Swedish, next year you may be wearing camouflage–and not as a fashion item. The government of Sweden has announced that it will re-introduce universal conscription for men and women starting on January 1, 2018.

The draft is coming back after a seven year suspension for two reasons. The first is simply a manpower shortage. The jobs in the all-volunteer force are not being filled. The second is regional worries that Russia has gotten more aggressive toward its neighbors, and will continue to do so. Analysts cite Russian actions in Crimea and Ukraine as drivers of this anxiety.

One benefit of universal conscription besides simply filling empty slots is to create a sense of patriotism among younger citizens.One good example of this is Singapore which has ethnic diversity as its core, but requires members of all communities to serve. Giving up a year of one’s life to serve one’s country doesn’t seem unfair, and may have long-term benefits for Sweden.

Sweden MOD announcement

Photo: Sweden MOD