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NATO’s Gets 13th Secretary General

Jens Stoltenberg (Photo: NATO)

On October 1, 2014 former Norwegian prime minister Jens Stoltenberg (55) became the 13th secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Born in 1959, Stoltenberg comes from a political family: his father was a politician and ambassador and his mother state secretary. Stoltenberg was a member of Norway’s parliament for 20 years, starting in 1993.

He served as prime minister from 200-2001, and then again from 2005-2013. Stoltenberg came to world attention after the domestic terrorist attack by Andres Behring Breivik which resulted in the death of 77 people. During his second term in office he increased Norway’s military spending, an action urged by US President Barack Obama on all NATO partners.

Analysts say the biggest challenge for the economist/politician will be dealing with Russia, particularly in light of the ongoing Ukraine crisis. Stoltenberg takes over from fellow Scandinavian politician Andres Fogh Rasmussen as 13th NATO secretary general. It is hoped that the number 13 will be a lucky one for him, and for the alliance.

China’s Not-Quite-Perfect 65th Birthday

On October1, 2014 China will celebrate it’s 65th birthday. 65 years ago, on October 1, 1949 Mao Zedong proclaimed in a resounding voice the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The country had much to celebrate: the end of a bloody civil war, the end of centuries of foreign domination and intervention and the end of the warlords. The following 65 years have seen massive changes and improvements as well as turbulent times. But China has clearly emerged as a world power with vast political and military might, and its own space program. But at 65 China still has many problems. Perhaps the biggest is in its dealings with its minorities. The question is how can China deal with Tibet, Xinjiang and now Hong Kong? How can people’s expectations be matched with the realities of 21st century politics? How can China continue to grow and adapt and be an all-inclusive society providing peace, security and freedom to all of its peoples? A big question for the leaders who will again go to Tiananmen Square on October 1. Log in and post your comments.

RG 21 Story Updates

Jack Ma and Alibaba IPO

In our June 8, 2013 post we reported on Jack Ma and Internet e-commerce giant Alibaba. At the end of the post we mentioned that there were rumors of an IPO (Initial Public Offering) by 2015. The IPO happened in September 2014, and was the largest IPO ever for the New York Stock Exchange. The selling price of shares was around $68.00, but quickly rose to a high of $93.89. The IPO raised $25 billion, incidentally making Jack Ma the richest man in China. The RG21 post is here:

http://research-group21.com/admin/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&blog_id=3&id=47

Alibaba’s Jack Ma (Photo: china.org.cn)

US and Indian Mars Missions

On August 3, 2014 we reported about the US and India Mars missions. The Indian Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) Mangalyann was scheduled to enter Mars orbit on September 24, 2014 preceded by the NASA Maven vehicle on September 21, 2014. Both vehicles arrived on time and are now orbiting Mars collecting valuable data. Congratulations are in order for both NASA and India’s ISRO. Well done!

The RG21 post for August 3, 2014 is here:

http://research-group21.com/admin/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&blog_id=3&id=180

NASA Maven Orbiter (NASA)

India Magalyaan Orbiter ( ISRO)

India-China Border Standoff

And finally, on July 20, 2013, RG21 reported on India’s plan to stand up a 45,000-man strike force by 2020 to deal protect its border interests with China. In the same post we also mentioned a three-week standoff in April 2013 in the Ladak Plateau region that had been settled peaceably. The Ladak Plateau area was again in the news in September 2014. On September 8, Indian troops erected an observation post in the region. China retaliated by starting construction of a road, which the Indians considered well within their territory. Another standoff ensued. Troop strength is estimated at about 800 for the Chinese and 1500 for the Indian side. Again, both sides agreed to a peaceful solution, and a pull back was scheduled for September 26, 2014. Clearly tensions will remain along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and in the Ladak region. RG21 will continue to monitor developments in the region. RG21post on India-China border tensions here:

http://research-group21.com/admin/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&blog_id=3&id=59

Indian Mountain Troops (Defense Radar.com)

Piracy: Crime or Terrorism or Both?

Captain Scarfield (Howard Pyle’s Book of Pirates 1921)

It is strange that piracy once almost extinct in the 19th and 20th centuries, has come back to haunt us in the 21st century. Theft, kidnapping and more on the high seas or costal waters is again part of the landscape. The most common instances of piracy are found around Somalia in Africa and the area around the Malacca strait. Twenty countries in Southeast Asia have joined in an anti-piracy coalition, while others have cooperated to create safe maritime passage around Africa. The question is are the developed nations doing enough? Can piracy or the causes of piracy be eliminated? Do we need to call piracy a form of terrorism and bring all our resources to bear, or are current efforts enough? Please log in and let us know your opinion on this matter.

Asian Waters—The Very Busy Strait of Malacca

Strait of Mallaca (Photo: Maritime Trade Intelligence)

by David Parmer

You could argue that the Malacca strait is not just the most important waterway in Asia, but is also the most important waterway in the world. And you would be on strong ground in doing so. Just look at the facts. Every year 50-60,000 ships pass through the strait of Malacca. One-third of the world’s shipping trade and an enormous amount of crude oil (15.2m barrels a day in 2011) and petroleum products make the trip from the Andaman Sea to the South China Sea. It is the shortest sea route between the Persian Gulf and Asia, specifically resource-hungry countries like China, Japan and Korea.

The Malacca Strait is a 550-mile-long sea route, ranging in width from a wide 155miles, to 40 miles to a very harrowing 1.7 miles wide (in the Phillips Channel of the Singapore Strait). The Malacca Strait flows between Indonesia and Malaysia and Singapore. The maritime standard for the area is Malaccamax, i.e. that it can handle vessels with a maximum draught of 82 feet. But for vessels of any size, the busy Malacca Strait is not without its dangers.

malacca-strait-1.gif.jpeg

Map:Strait of Malacca (Encyclopedia of Earth)

In such a heavily trafficked area there is always danger of grounding, collision and oil spills. Sea-Seek Sailing Guide reports that there are 34 shipwrecks in the traffic separation channel. Add to this the annual appearance of serious haze from slash-and-burn agriculture on Sumatra that cuts visibility down to 200 meters. And finally, there is the scourge of mariners worldwide throughout history: piracy.

Reports of the extent of Malacca piracy vary, some say it has decreased to almost nothing, and others say there is a sharp rise in attacks on merchant shipping. Reports from 2013 show a steady decline in attacks, while others pinpoint Malacca as a piracy hot spot comparable to the Somali coast. Increase or decrease notwithstanding, the Malacca Strait is an area where pirates abound. Malacca pirates mostly target valuables on the ships and crews’ possessions, although some more sophisticated gangs steal oil products. In 2006, due to a decreased risk, the global insurer Lloyds dropped its “war risk classification” for ships sailing the strait.

Decreased piracy activity is due in part thanks to the Malacca Straits Sea Patrol, operated by Indonesia, Malaysian, Singapore and Thailand. These countries also share information and intelligence on piracy. Countries in the region also cooperate through membership in the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP). In September 2014, the United States became the 20th member of ReCAAP, and sent a US Coast Guard admiral to sit on its board.

Since 2007, there has also been three-nation cooperation through the Cooperative Mechanism on Safety of Navigation and Environmental Protection in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.

So, is the Strait of Malacca the most important waterway in Asia and in the world? If you say “yes” you will probably be right.

Piracy Decrease:

http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/manualassets/pirates_2014/index.html

Piracy Increase:

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/indonesia/140326/malacca-strait-piracy-hotspot

Regional, 20-Country Anti-Piracy Organization:

http://www.recaap.org

U.S. China Policy: What’s up?

National Security Council (Photo: White House Gov.)

by David Parmer

A key element of stage magic is misdirection: while we watch the magician’s right hand, his left hand holds the disappearing coin. Faced with the back-and-forth of US-China relations, one wonders where is the substance and where is the illusion. Are we seeing one, or the other? Or both? On one hand the US and China are wary of one another. The “pivot to Asia” can be interpreted to mean the US plans to check Chinese power. And China’s de facto “no fly zone” in the S. China Sea has raised the tension level with the US and her allies. Pushback from the Chinese side on the Diaoyu/Senkaku issue has further raised tensions and soured relations with Japan, one of the US’s closest post-war allies. OK. So relations are frosty, and there won’t be any invitations for a beer after work-but wait just a minute. In 2014 the Obama administration has sent it’s “A” team to China. Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel went in April, and then Secretary of State John Kerry in August (accompanied, apparently, by everyone in Washington except the ticket taker at the Smithsonian) and in September, National Security Advisor Susan Rice put in her appearance in Beijing to lay the groundwork for President Barak Obama’s visit in November. So what is going on? In the old old old days states sent their representatives to the Middle Kingdom to pay their respects to the Son of Heaven. But surely, nothing like that could be going on now? Could it? So where is the substance and where the illusion? What aren’t we seeing in the US-China relationship? Which hand holds the coin? Log in and give us your opinion.

U.S. Sends Rice To China

Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi (R) holds talks with U.S. President Barack Obama’s National Security Advisor Susan Rice in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 8, 2014. (Xinhua/Wang Ye)

On September 2, 2014, the US National Security Council released the following statement:

From September 7-9, 2014, National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice will travel to Beijing, China, for meetings with senior Chinese officials, including State Councilor Yang Jiechi, to consult on a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues. She will underscore the United States’ commitment to building a productive relationship between our two countries in advance of the President’s visit to China in November.

The purpose of Rice’s visit was to lay the groundwork for President Barack Obama’s visit to the PRC in November after the APEC meeting. Rice was the guest of State Councilor Yang Jiechi, and it appears that the substantive talks during this trip took place on September 8, with Yang. According to Chinese reports, they discussed a number of issues.

From the Chinese side, Yang said China hopes to:

Implement consensus reached previously by both heads of state
Advance strategic mutual trust
Enhance cooperation
Manage and control differences

From the American side, Rice said the US hopes to:

Continue to maintain high-level dialogue
Have in-depth discussions on a wide range of regional and global issues
Make a bi-lateral commitment to building a new model of major country relationships

On September 9, Rice met with Foreign Minister Wang Yi where Wang stated that China sees Obama’s visit as a meeting of great importance. The issue of a new style of world power relations was addressed by Wang. Also on September 9, Rice met General Fan Changlong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Discussions were pointed, with China expressing strong concern about US close-in surveillance. Rice and Fan also discussed other issues concerning military cooperation and the new style world power relations.

Finally on September 9, Rice met with President Xi Jinping where they discussed a variety of issues and the new model for China-US major country relationship. During her visit Rice reiterated that there was a lot happening in her area of responsibility globally, but that the US saw her visit to China as a top priority.

Chinese foreign minister meets US National Security Advisor:

http://www.ecns.cn/2014/09-09/133630.shtml

Yang Jiechi holds talks with Assistant to the President for National Security:http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1189597.shtml

Sport and National Pride

320px-Kei_Nishikori_1,_Wimbledon_2013_-_Diliff.jpg

K. Nishikori, Wimbleldon 2013 ( Wikimedia/D. Iliff)

This week saw a tremendous national buzz build around Japanese tennis star Kei Nishikori as he made his way to the finals at the U.S. Open; the first Japanese to do so in 96 years. To do this he defeated world #1 Novak Djokovic. Sadly for Japanese fans, Nishikori’s tennis wasn’t the best on the day, and the crown went to Croatian Narin Cillic. So game over. But the question of national pride remains. Is it important for citizens to support athletes in national competitions simply because they share the same passport? Should the pride of a country rise and fall with the performance of its athletes? What about the Olympic Games? Is it time to tone down the nationalism? Please log in and tell us what you think about national pride and sport.

ASEAN Members Lineup : Brunei

Brunei (2).jpg

(Photo: Brunei Halal Industry Innovation Centre)

ASEAN member country Brunei, Darussalam (the Nation of Brunei, The Abode of Peace) is located on the north coast of the island of Borneo. It has a coastline on the South China sea and is surrounded by Sarawak Malaysia. Brunei is a former British protectorate which gained full independence on 1 January 1984. In the same week, on 7 January 1984, Brunei became a member of ASEAN.

Two things define Brunei Darussalam: religion and money. The official religion of Brunei is Islam and this year the country has moved to adopt a more strict form of Sharia law. Of interest is the recent development by the country of the Halal brand. The branding is an attempt to show prospective clients that the country’s products are produced and managed according to Islamic law. Brunei Darussalam is rich. Very rich. Its fortunes come from vast stores of petroleum and natural gas. International partners cooperate with the country in producing and exporting its products. Japan is one of its biggest customers for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). As a result of the resource wealth per capita income of its 400,000 plus population is high and many social services are provided by the government free or for a small charge. Brunei is a member of several international organizations including ASEAN, and the British Commonwealth. Brunei has close ties with both Singapore and Malaysia. There is still a British military presence in the country.

The country is governed by the absolute leader, Hassani Bolkiah, the 29th Sultan of Brunei. He has governed since 1967, lives in an 1800 room palace, reportedly has three wives, attended the British Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, is a collector of expensive cars and is worth $20 billion. The Sultan also holds several portfolios in the government.

The capital is Bandar Seri Begawan where the Brunei International Airport is located. Currency is the Brunei dollar (B$), but Singapore dollars are also used.

China Cooperates on Counter-Terrorism

China, like all major countries around the globe faces its share of 21st century terrorist threats. The threat to China is both local and global. Locally, China sees threats from its western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang. Internationally, Chinese interests are global with many situated on the African continent.

In 2001 China set up the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which is made up of six members: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The SCO was designed to deal with political, economic and military cooperation. SCO has held joint military exercises over the years called “Peace Missions.” The latest was held in the late summer of 2014 in Inner Mongolia. The purpose of these exercises was, and is, to counter the threats from separatism, extremism and terrorism. In recent years the exercises have been scaled back, but they still involve conventional military forces. Critics suggested that such forces were not suited to current terrorist threats, but events in the Middle East especially in Syria and northern Iraq suggest that conventional forces do indeed have a large role to play in counter-terrorism. SCO counter-terrorist cooperation seems robust and is likely to continue in the future.

While cooperation with its neighbors seems fairly straightforward, cooperation with the United States in a different matter. In July 2014, China and the U.S. agreed to increase cooperation on counter-terrorism. China Daily USA reported on July 17th, 2014 Chinese Vice Minister Cheng Guoping had met that week with U.S. ambassador-at-large Tina Kaidanow coordinator for terrorism at the State Department. Cheng was quoted as saying:

“Terrorism poses a direct threat to the United States, and China has also made fighting terrorist activities as a top priority for maintaining social stability,” So while increased cooperation is a good thing, the question is whether differences in the perception of what constitutes terrorism will ever be eliminated.

China sees its biggest domestic threat from Uighur Jihadists, namely the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). A series of railway station attacks to include bombing and knifings in Urumqi, Kunming and Guangzhou are clear evidence of terrorism from the Chinese point of view. Moreover, China accuses the US of having a “double standard” as far as terrorism is concerned in not condemning these attacks as terrorist acts. The U.S. has viewed China’s problems with its minorities as “human rights” issues, further alienating the Chinese side. China feels it has given the US its support in its counter-terrorism, but that reciprocity has not been forthcoming. So the July meetings are a good sign, a further step in the right direction.

China in the 21st century will have to continue to make alliances with friends and neighbors around the globe to deal with terrorism both locally and globally. And many countries will have to get used to having the Middle Kingdom as their new friend and ally in the battle.

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2014-07/17/content_17818028.htm