News | RG21 - Part 26

NATO’s Gets 13th Secretary General

Jens Stoltenberg (Photo: NATO)

On October 1, 2014 former Norwegian prime minister Jens Stoltenberg (55) became the 13th secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Born in 1959, Stoltenberg comes from a political family: his father was a politician and ambassador and his mother state secretary. Stoltenberg was a member of Norway’s parliament for 20 years, starting in 1993.

He served as prime minister from 200-2001, and then again from 2005-2013. Stoltenberg came to world attention after the domestic terrorist attack by Andres Behring Breivik which resulted in the death of 77 people. During his second term in office he increased Norway’s military spending, an action urged by US President Barack Obama on all NATO partners.

Analysts say the biggest challenge for the economist/politician will be dealing with Russia, particularly in light of the ongoing Ukraine crisis. Stoltenberg takes over from fellow Scandinavian politician Andres Fogh Rasmussen as 13th NATO secretary general. It is hoped that the number 13 will be a lucky one for him, and for the alliance.

RG 21 Story Updates

Jack Ma and Alibaba IPO

In our June 8, 2013 post we reported on Jack Ma and Internet e-commerce giant Alibaba. At the end of the post we mentioned that there were rumors of an IPO (Initial Public Offering) by 2015. The IPO happened in September 2014, and was the largest IPO ever for the New York Stock Exchange. The selling price of shares was around $68.00, but quickly rose to a high of $93.89. The IPO raised $25 billion, incidentally making Jack Ma the richest man in China. The RG21 post is here:

http://research-group21.com/admin/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&blog_id=3&id=47

Alibaba’s Jack Ma (Photo: china.org.cn)

US and Indian Mars Missions

On August 3, 2014 we reported about the US and India Mars missions. The Indian Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) Mangalyann was scheduled to enter Mars orbit on September 24, 2014 preceded by the NASA Maven vehicle on September 21, 2014. Both vehicles arrived on time and are now orbiting Mars collecting valuable data. Congratulations are in order for both NASA and India’s ISRO. Well done!

The RG21 post for August 3, 2014 is here:

http://research-group21.com/admin/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&blog_id=3&id=180

NASA Maven Orbiter (NASA)

India Magalyaan Orbiter ( ISRO)

India-China Border Standoff

And finally, on July 20, 2013, RG21 reported on India’s plan to stand up a 45,000-man strike force by 2020 to deal protect its border interests with China. In the same post we also mentioned a three-week standoff in April 2013 in the Ladak Plateau region that had been settled peaceably. The Ladak Plateau area was again in the news in September 2014. On September 8, Indian troops erected an observation post in the region. China retaliated by starting construction of a road, which the Indians considered well within their territory. Another standoff ensued. Troop strength is estimated at about 800 for the Chinese and 1500 for the Indian side. Again, both sides agreed to a peaceful solution, and a pull back was scheduled for September 26, 2014. Clearly tensions will remain along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and in the Ladak region. RG21 will continue to monitor developments in the region. RG21post on India-China border tensions here:

http://research-group21.com/admin/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&blog_id=3&id=59

Indian Mountain Troops (Defense Radar.com)

Asian Waters—The Very Busy Strait of Malacca

Strait of Mallaca (Photo: Maritime Trade Intelligence)

by David Parmer

You could argue that the Malacca strait is not just the most important waterway in Asia, but is also the most important waterway in the world. And you would be on strong ground in doing so. Just look at the facts. Every year 50-60,000 ships pass through the strait of Malacca. One-third of the world’s shipping trade and an enormous amount of crude oil (15.2m barrels a day in 2011) and petroleum products make the trip from the Andaman Sea to the South China Sea. It is the shortest sea route between the Persian Gulf and Asia, specifically resource-hungry countries like China, Japan and Korea.

The Malacca Strait is a 550-mile-long sea route, ranging in width from a wide 155miles, to 40 miles to a very harrowing 1.7 miles wide (in the Phillips Channel of the Singapore Strait). The Malacca Strait flows between Indonesia and Malaysia and Singapore. The maritime standard for the area is Malaccamax, i.e. that it can handle vessels with a maximum draught of 82 feet. But for vessels of any size, the busy Malacca Strait is not without its dangers.

malacca-strait-1.gif.jpeg

Map:Strait of Malacca (Encyclopedia of Earth)

In such a heavily trafficked area there is always danger of grounding, collision and oil spills. Sea-Seek Sailing Guide reports that there are 34 shipwrecks in the traffic separation channel. Add to this the annual appearance of serious haze from slash-and-burn agriculture on Sumatra that cuts visibility down to 200 meters. And finally, there is the scourge of mariners worldwide throughout history: piracy.

Reports of the extent of Malacca piracy vary, some say it has decreased to almost nothing, and others say there is a sharp rise in attacks on merchant shipping. Reports from 2013 show a steady decline in attacks, while others pinpoint Malacca as a piracy hot spot comparable to the Somali coast. Increase or decrease notwithstanding, the Malacca Strait is an area where pirates abound. Malacca pirates mostly target valuables on the ships and crews’ possessions, although some more sophisticated gangs steal oil products. In 2006, due to a decreased risk, the global insurer Lloyds dropped its “war risk classification” for ships sailing the strait.

Decreased piracy activity is due in part thanks to the Malacca Straits Sea Patrol, operated by Indonesia, Malaysian, Singapore and Thailand. These countries also share information and intelligence on piracy. Countries in the region also cooperate through membership in the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP). In September 2014, the United States became the 20th member of ReCAAP, and sent a US Coast Guard admiral to sit on its board.

Since 2007, there has also been three-nation cooperation through the Cooperative Mechanism on Safety of Navigation and Environmental Protection in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.

So, is the Strait of Malacca the most important waterway in Asia and in the world? If you say “yes” you will probably be right.

Piracy Decrease:

http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/manualassets/pirates_2014/index.html

Piracy Increase:

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/indonesia/140326/malacca-strait-piracy-hotspot

Regional, 20-Country Anti-Piracy Organization:

http://www.recaap.org

U.S. Sends Rice To China

Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi (R) holds talks with U.S. President Barack Obama’s National Security Advisor Susan Rice in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 8, 2014. (Xinhua/Wang Ye)

On September 2, 2014, the US National Security Council released the following statement:

From September 7-9, 2014, National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice will travel to Beijing, China, for meetings with senior Chinese officials, including State Councilor Yang Jiechi, to consult on a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues. She will underscore the United States’ commitment to building a productive relationship between our two countries in advance of the President’s visit to China in November.

The purpose of Rice’s visit was to lay the groundwork for President Barack Obama’s visit to the PRC in November after the APEC meeting. Rice was the guest of State Councilor Yang Jiechi, and it appears that the substantive talks during this trip took place on September 8, with Yang. According to Chinese reports, they discussed a number of issues.

From the Chinese side, Yang said China hopes to:

Implement consensus reached previously by both heads of state
Advance strategic mutual trust
Enhance cooperation
Manage and control differences

From the American side, Rice said the US hopes to:

Continue to maintain high-level dialogue
Have in-depth discussions on a wide range of regional and global issues
Make a bi-lateral commitment to building a new model of major country relationships

On September 9, Rice met with Foreign Minister Wang Yi where Wang stated that China sees Obama’s visit as a meeting of great importance. The issue of a new style of world power relations was addressed by Wang. Also on September 9, Rice met General Fan Changlong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Discussions were pointed, with China expressing strong concern about US close-in surveillance. Rice and Fan also discussed other issues concerning military cooperation and the new style world power relations.

Finally on September 9, Rice met with President Xi Jinping where they discussed a variety of issues and the new model for China-US major country relationship. During her visit Rice reiterated that there was a lot happening in her area of responsibility globally, but that the US saw her visit to China as a top priority.

Chinese foreign minister meets US National Security Advisor:

http://www.ecns.cn/2014/09-09/133630.shtml

Yang Jiechi holds talks with Assistant to the President for National Security:http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1189597.shtml

ASEAN Members Lineup : Brunei

Brunei (2).jpg

(Photo: Brunei Halal Industry Innovation Centre)

ASEAN member country Brunei, Darussalam (the Nation of Brunei, The Abode of Peace) is located on the north coast of the island of Borneo. It has a coastline on the South China sea and is surrounded by Sarawak Malaysia. Brunei is a former British protectorate which gained full independence on 1 January 1984. In the same week, on 7 January 1984, Brunei became a member of ASEAN.

Two things define Brunei Darussalam: religion and money. The official religion of Brunei is Islam and this year the country has moved to adopt a more strict form of Sharia law. Of interest is the recent development by the country of the Halal brand. The branding is an attempt to show prospective clients that the country’s products are produced and managed according to Islamic law. Brunei Darussalam is rich. Very rich. Its fortunes come from vast stores of petroleum and natural gas. International partners cooperate with the country in producing and exporting its products. Japan is one of its biggest customers for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). As a result of the resource wealth per capita income of its 400,000 plus population is high and many social services are provided by the government free or for a small charge. Brunei is a member of several international organizations including ASEAN, and the British Commonwealth. Brunei has close ties with both Singapore and Malaysia. There is still a British military presence in the country.

The country is governed by the absolute leader, Hassani Bolkiah, the 29th Sultan of Brunei. He has governed since 1967, lives in an 1800 room palace, reportedly has three wives, attended the British Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, is a collector of expensive cars and is worth $20 billion. The Sultan also holds several portfolios in the government.

The capital is Bandar Seri Begawan where the Brunei International Airport is located. Currency is the Brunei dollar (B$), but Singapore dollars are also used.

China Cooperates on Counter-Terrorism

China, like all major countries around the globe faces its share of 21st century terrorist threats. The threat to China is both local and global. Locally, China sees threats from its western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang. Internationally, Chinese interests are global with many situated on the African continent.

In 2001 China set up the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which is made up of six members: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The SCO was designed to deal with political, economic and military cooperation. SCO has held joint military exercises over the years called “Peace Missions.” The latest was held in the late summer of 2014 in Inner Mongolia. The purpose of these exercises was, and is, to counter the threats from separatism, extremism and terrorism. In recent years the exercises have been scaled back, but they still involve conventional military forces. Critics suggested that such forces were not suited to current terrorist threats, but events in the Middle East especially in Syria and northern Iraq suggest that conventional forces do indeed have a large role to play in counter-terrorism. SCO counter-terrorist cooperation seems robust and is likely to continue in the future.

While cooperation with its neighbors seems fairly straightforward, cooperation with the United States in a different matter. In July 2014, China and the U.S. agreed to increase cooperation on counter-terrorism. China Daily USA reported on July 17th, 2014 Chinese Vice Minister Cheng Guoping had met that week with U.S. ambassador-at-large Tina Kaidanow coordinator for terrorism at the State Department. Cheng was quoted as saying:

“Terrorism poses a direct threat to the United States, and China has also made fighting terrorist activities as a top priority for maintaining social stability,” So while increased cooperation is a good thing, the question is whether differences in the perception of what constitutes terrorism will ever be eliminated.

China sees its biggest domestic threat from Uighur Jihadists, namely the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). A series of railway station attacks to include bombing and knifings in Urumqi, Kunming and Guangzhou are clear evidence of terrorism from the Chinese point of view. Moreover, China accuses the US of having a “double standard” as far as terrorism is concerned in not condemning these attacks as terrorist acts. The U.S. has viewed China’s problems with its minorities as “human rights” issues, further alienating the Chinese side. China feels it has given the US its support in its counter-terrorism, but that reciprocity has not been forthcoming. So the July meetings are a good sign, a further step in the right direction.

China in the 21st century will have to continue to make alliances with friends and neighbors around the globe to deal with terrorism both locally and globally. And many countries will have to get used to having the Middle Kingdom as their new friend and ally in the battle.

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2014-07/17/content_17818028.htm

Hillary 2016!

(Photo: Xinhua)

by David Parmer

Hillary. In American politics, in 2014, that one word is enough. Google “Hill…” in Google News, and the first suggestion that you get will be: “Hillary Rodham Clinton.” The next general election is in 2016, but it looks as if the campaign has already begun. Like runners milling about the starting line of a marathon, stretching, getting hydrated and pacing around to burn off nervous energy, a list of potential candidates both Republican and Democrat are waiting for the starting gun of the 2016 election.

For the record, as of August 2014, Hillary says she has not decided whether to run or not. It is a clever tactic, for once she does declare, the race is on, and it doesn’t end until election day 2016. Now she has space to prepare and explore options without intense media scrutiny. (There is still plenty of scrutiny, just not at the white hot level it will be when she surely does announce her candidacy.) It seems, that, as for now, as the old saying goes, she is getting her ducks in order. Some of that ordering is thought to be learning from the mistakes she made in 2008 when she ran for the nomination against Barack Obama. And making sure they don’t happen again.

So maybe Hillary won’t run? Not a chance. A glance at Clinton’s career track from Girl Scout to Wellesley College to Yale Law to political staffer to high-powered attorney to First Lady of the U.S. to Senator to rival for the 2008 Democratic nomination to 67th Secretary of State of the United States, points to one thing: the Presidency.

Hillary Rodham Clinton, indeed, has an impressive track record. Starting out as a conservative Republican she has morphed into being a mainstream Democrat. Along the way she has consistently championed women’s and children’s rights. In foreign policy she has advocated “smart power ” a mix of hard and soft power that includes military, economic capabilities, alliances and partnerships. And while she was at State, she visited 112 countries the most of any secretary of state.

So when will Hillary “decide” ? Maybe early next year. Or maybe the race has already begun and she is ahead, out in front and heading for that goal line that she can see ever so clearly. The media seems to think so, and probably most Americans do too. Whatever the outcome, whether she runs for President or not, it is clear Hillary will do it on her terms.

Kurdistan’s Peshmerga–Key Players In A New Game

(Photo: Enno Lenze/flickr)

by David Parmer

News reports on 18 August 2014 report that Iraqi special forces together with Kurdish peshmerga and supported by U.S. and Iraqi air power have taken back the Mosul Dam from IS (Islamic State) fighters. The Mosul dam, located on the Tigris river, is a key objective in the fight with IS forces, as it supplies electric power to northern Iraq and its destruction would cause flooding and devastation to most of the country.

The question is, who are these peshmerga, and how do they fit into the puzzle that is the ever-changing face of the early 21st century middle east?

The peshmerga (“those who face death”) who have a reputation as fierce and disciplined fighters, are the soldiers of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurdish people (numbering around 25 million) have no independent homeland, but are scattered around the region from Iraq and Iran to Turkey and Syria. While organized Kurdish military have existed since the sundown of the Ottoman empire, it was not until December 1945 when Mustafa Barzani created the short-lived Mahabad Republic that the peshmerga came into being. These forces fought in the Kurd-Iraq war and in the rebellion against the central government. Finally in a Kurdish civil war the KDP, Kurdish Democratic Party fought with the PUK, Party for United Kurdistan until a U.S. brokered peace deal was put in place. During the U.S. Invasion of Iraq there was U.S.-Kurdish cooperation, and in 2003, the peshmerga joined U.S. Special Forces in defeating Saddam Hussein.

After Saddam’s downfall the Kurds were granted a semi-independent region in the new Iraq. The peshmerga remained intact under the new government, and continued to have a reputation for being an effective military force. Then in 2014, in a spillover from the Syrian war, ISIS, or the Islamic State as it is now called, started to seize territory in northern Iraq in a effort to establish an Islamic caliphate. Initially, IS forces were thought to be headed for Bagdad, but they attacked north instead taking territory and routing the Iraqi army, seizing abandoned heavy weapons and armor at the same time.

In August 2014 the peshmerga were pushed back, and it looked like key Kurdish territory would fall to the IS offensive. The U.S. acted relatively quickly. On 8 August 2014 President Obama ordered bombing of IS positions and targets and promised military support.

Numbers of us military personnel have been increased, and there are now an estimated 1,000 U.S. troops involved.

There was general surprise that the peshmerga had been pushed back so soundly by IS. Retreating in itself is not the end in warfare: commanders from George Washington to Mao Zedong have had to retreat time and again, and gone on to ultimate victory. But the temporary defeat seems to have tarnished the reputation of the peshmerga and given a wake-up call to all concerned.

In the August 2014 war, the peshmerga had to face battle-hardened IS forces, that were tough, committed and confident. The peshmerga were skilled in guerrilla warfare, but they faced the newly heavily-armed IS forces who fought a new type of semi-conventional fight. IS forces simply overwhelmed them.

In a blog post for the Washington Institute, Michael Knights cites several reasons for the poor Kurdish performance.

Poor positioning of forces
Kurd rivalry
Alienation of Sunni tribes
Inexperienced troops
Shortages of equipment and logistics

The upshot of the August action has been commitments from several nations to support the peshmerga. These include the U.S., and Britain, with reports of Iranian involvement as well. The peshmerga have, and are to receive weapons and logistical support as well as air support and intelligence.

The support seems to be working, and in the first major action, Iraqi and Kurdish forces have moved on the Mosul dam and driven out IS fighters. So for the present it looks like the Kurds will be the surrogates of many parties interested in seeing IS stopped, and will get all the support they need. The concern in the west is that a resurgent Kurdish military will further fuel hopes for an independent Kurdish homeland. But for the time being, in northern Iraq, the peshmerga are the only game in town.

Willing to face death: A history of Kurdish military forces

http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3203&context=etd

What Iraq’s Kurdish Peshmerga Really Need

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/what-iraqs-kurdish-peshmerga-really-need

50 Years Ago – The World in 1964

50 years–If you are young it is forever, if you are old, it’s just last week.

by David Parmer

In 1964 Japan hosted the Summer Olympics in Tokyo from October 10-24. If ever there was a symbolic meaning to the venue of the games, this was it. In Just 19 years from 1945, Japan had transformed herself from a defeated, bombed-out shell of a country into a world economic power, respected for its hi-tech products of unquestionable quality, whose names like Sony, Panasonic, Nikon, Toshiba and Honda were known worldwide. Domestically, the Japan National Railways (JNR) ran the Shinkansen or Bullet Train from Tokyo to Osaka. It was another amazing feat of post-war Japanese engineering and technology. Also, in 1964 Japanese citizens were again given the right to travel abroad, and travel they did in flag-following groups to all parts of the world.

In 1964, China too made its mark on the international stage. On October 16, 1964 China exploded its first 22 kiloton nuclear device in the Xinjiang region of western China. China thus became the fifth member of the nuclear club after the U.S., Soviet Union, Britain and France. The year saw China launch what might be called a foreign-relations offensive by establishing ties with a host of countries around the world. Premier Zhou Enlai travelled to Burma, Pakistan, Ceylon and several countries in Africa. The jewel in this particular crown was the normalization of ties and recognition of the PRC by France, the first western power to do so.

In the United States, Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater for the Presidency. In 1964, the United States faced three big issues: the Civil Rights Movement, the Space Race and The Cold War. On July 2, 1964 the Civil Rights Act was passed abolishing segregation. (In might be noted in passing that this was roughly 100 years after President Abraham Lincoln had issued the Emancipation proclamation freeing the slaves.) On November 28, 1964 the US launched Mariner 4, one of the first in a long series of Mars probes that continues even until today. The Space Race was an unofficial completion with the Soviet Union, which they led off by launching a basketball-sized satellite in 1958, and which would culminate with an American Moon landing in 1969. The Cold War with the Soviet Union took a new face in 1964 when Nikita Khrushchev was ousted and a collective leadership was put in place under Leonid Brezhnev. The following years came to be known as the Brezhnev Era, which was noted for its economic stagnation but significant military strengthening. On August 7, 1964 the US congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution giving the president war powers to deal with North Vietnam after an attack on a US naval vessel. The US also sent an additional 5,000 advisors to South Vietnam, bringing the number of Americans on the ground to 21,000.

Finally, in 1964, French writer John Paul Sartre won the Nobel Prize for Literature, and Martin Luther King won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Life On Mars? Not So Far Off.

Mars Curiosity Rover (Photo:NASA)

by David Parmer/Tokyo

In the latter part of this century, the most common life form on Mars will probably be humans from Asia-Pacific. These would be Chinese, Indians or Americans.

India now has a Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM), Mangalyaan, headed for Mars and scheduled to enter Mars orbit September 24, 2014. The Indian MOM is to be preceded by a NASA vehicle, Maven, that will enter orbit September 21, 2014. Mangalyaan was launched by the Indian Space Research Organisation in November 2013 on a shoestring budget of $75,000,000, attesting to Indian ingenuity and ability to “make do.”

Media reports see India’s space programs as space race with China similar to the U.S. vs. Russia space race of the 1960s. Evidence suggests that China is not interested in “racing” into space, but is taking a slow and steady approach, with the emphasis on “steady.” In an National Public Radio (NPR) broadcast in 2013, the director of the Chinese National Space Science Center, Wu Ji said that China, when it sends its Mars mission, will not duplicate the science that the U.S. and India do, but will rather set new scientific goals. The Chinese, buoyed by the success of the Chang’e 3 spacecraft and its rover Yutu on their lunar mission are now looking toward a 2020 Mars mission with a 2030 planetary samples mission. China’s first Mars mission, the Yinghuo -1 launched on November 9,2011 was a failure. However, failed Mars missions abound as the challenges are immense. So the failure of China’s first attempt was not unusual. What seems clear, however, is China’s long-terms national commitment to space exploration.

NASA has been in the vanguard of Mars exploration with a history of fly-by, orbiter and lander and robot programs. The Curiosity rover, which landed in 2012 has been a stunning success performing flawlessly and doing good scientific research, including finding what appears to be evidence of ancient streams. Evidence of water points to ancient life. All very exciting. NASA, like China, has its sights set on 2020 for its next rover mission. The 2020 mission, already well into the planning stages) will look for potential life on Mars, gather knowledge about the planet and demonstrate techniques for further exploration.