カテゴリー: 議論の場

                                        Whole Earth (Photo: NASA via Wikimedia)

As 2014 winds down, we can take a moment and look forward to 2015 and try to figure out what the world will be like next year. It is clear that many issues prominent in 2014 will continue to be front page news: Ukraine, Korean nuclear issues, the Russian economy, the Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute and the rise of the Islamic State. Terrorism worldwide will probably a key issue, with very few countries being immune to terrorist threats. The volatile price of energy and its impact on the environment will also be front and center. And surely some very unexpected things will happen. So what is your opinion? How will 2015 go?  Do you see a bright year, or a dark year, or more typically a mix of light and dark? Log in and give us your thoughts.

 

Crude oil prices are hovering at around $60/barrel at the end of 2014, and “oversupply” is the word of the day in the oil business. Too much oil means prices are dropping and will drop still further. The U.S. and Canada move forward producing their own shale oil. Worldwide demand is down, and energy exporting countries like Russia and Iran are hurting. The Saudis say they will not cut production even if the price goes to $20/barrel. Some predict that crude oil will never again climb to $100/barrel. Never is a long time, and history teaches us that things change. But for the short term, and that means in the first half of 2015, we will probably see the continuation of the oil glut, and its associated economic fallout. So what do you think? Are lower prices for crude oil a good thing? Or not? Log in a give us your thoughts on this.

                                              Hong Kong Cleanup (Wikimedia)

Police moved in and cleared the last of the Hong Kong protesters on Thursday 11 December. Police arrested 200 people, while a reported 800 people were detained and released the following day. It was over after 75 days. Workers cleared barricades and cleaned up. Life went back to normal. The question is what was accomplished? The Beijing government did not back down on its decision to vet candidates for the 2017 elections. On the whole, Hong Kong police acted with restraint and there was no loss of life on either side. So what was accomplished? Is this a complicated situation or very simple? Will protests take place again next year, or will students and opponents switch tactics? Can any compromise be reached before 2017? Please log in and give us your thoughts.

 

                             by David Parmer

This past weekend saw Taiwan’s ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party take a major beating from the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The landslide win by the DPP lead to the resignation of Prime Minister Jiang Yi-hua. The ruling KMT has had increasingly warm relations with Beijing, and noticeable successes in trade, banking and tourism. However, the DPP’s gains suggest that the Taiwanese people are not entirely happy with the KMT, and this election was their chance to bring the ruling party’s mandate into question. One factor that might have influenced voters is the ongoing Occupy movement in the Hong Kong SAR. Far from over, the movement still has support and has gotten no satisfaction regarding its demands regarding the 2017 elections in Hong Kong with regard to candidate approval by Beijing. Taiwan has its own presidential elections in 2016, and the results of the nine-in-one election of November 2014 do not bode well for the KMT. So Beijing has the possibility of continued strife in Hong Kong, and the possibility of an unacceptable (anti-PRC) government in Taipei. The next 24 months will be a time to watch. How will Beijing react? Or will it take proactive steps to deal with these two situations on its periphery? Please log in and give us your thoughts.

 

                                                                 (Photo: Def. Gov.)

U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel resigned on Monday November 24th. Hagel had held the position for two years, and will stay on until a successor can be found. Hagel is President Barak Obama’s third secretary of defense. His predecessors were Robert Gates and Leon Panetta. Reports state that Mr. Hagel never really became a member of Mr. Obama’s inner circle, and that he had differences with the National Security Council’s Susan Rice. Since the rise of Islamic State, the U.S. Defense policy has taken a different course than when Mr. Hagel was appointed. His management skills have also been called into question.

Looking at the situation, who do you think will, or should replace Mr. Hagel, and will there be a major shift in U.S. defense policy? Please log in and post your answers here.

 

 

                                       Mr. Kim ( KCNA)

The United Nations General Assembly Human Rights Committee voted (119-19) on November 19th to refer North Korea to the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity.

The DPRK’s allies, Cuba, China and Russian voted against the draft resolution. Before the resolution could be sent to the World Court, it would have to have the United Nations Security Council approval, and observers say that there is little chance for the resolution to be approved. The question is how the North will react to the UN resolution? Will it be seen as an insult, or a provocation, or an excuse to continue its nuclear program? Will the North react with an “incident” like the capture of a vessel, shelling the South, or increasing its propaganda efforts? Log in and give us your thoughts on this question.

The Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation forum will meet in Beijing from November 9-10, 2014. This has been decided. What has not been decided, and what is potentially one of the bigger news events of the year is whether Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinxing will meet or not. Relations between Japan and China have been frosty since 2012 with the Senkaku/Diaou Islands issue constantly on the boil. From the Chinese side there is also the issue of Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine. Apparently there is much last-minute negotiating between the foreign ministers of both countries to see if the meeting can be made to happen. So the questions are: Will the meeting happen? Can any significant breakthroughs be made if it does happen? Please log in and give us your thoughts on this question. 

This past week (Oct. 26-Nov.1,2014) was a bad week in space. First on October 28th an Antares rocket with a Cygnus cargo spacecraft operated by the Orbital Science Corporation was aborted in a fiery explosion at its launch site off the coast of Virginia. The vehicle was carrying 5,000 pounds of material for the International Space Station when it exploded. NASA and the contractor say that the material was not vital, and that ISS astronauts have enough supplies to last them into the future. Just three days later another spectacular crash occurred over California’s Mojave desert. This time the vehicle was the Virgin Galactic Space Ship Two, operated by Virgin Galactic, a subsidiary of the Virgin group. One pilot was killed and another seriously injured. The vehicle was completely destroyed, and debris was seen littering the desert.  While these two incidents were disappointing and in one case tragic, they are not unusual in the rocket business. Those with long memories will look back to the late 1950s and early 1960s when rocket after rocket exploded or was destroyed in the early days of unmanned space flight. The real question is what can be learned from both of these incidents, and how can such occurrences be even further minimized in the future. Please log in and give us your thoughts.

This month has seen the continuation of balloon launches by South Korean  anti DPRK activists from the town of  Paju. After a recent launch a balloon that had lost altitude was fired upon by North Korean forces, prompting a return of fire from the South. The huge balloons reported contain not only propaganda, but sometimes chocolate snacks, U.S. $1 bills and USB drives with South Korean entertainment content. Since the latest incident residents are worried about shelling from the North in retaliation. The government says it can not stop the launches, but will intervene if there is violence between pro and anti forces on the ground. So how will North Korea react in the future? Will they simply protest, or will there be a strong reaction, again sending tensions sky high? Please log in and give us your thoughts.

 

                                                           (Photo: Wikimedia)

In autumn 2014 we can’t turn on the TV without hearing the latest reports of the Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa and in other parts of the world. The images are frightening, the prognosis for patients seemingly not good. And there is the questions of the possible spread of the disease to other parts of the world like China, Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia. While we are getting a flood of information from the media, are we getting enough information and more importantly, the right information? How worried should we be, and what can we do to prevent the spread of this virus and to protect ourselves. Please log in and give us your thoughts on this question.