議論の場 | RG21

Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst

By Bill Lee

Is hoping for the best but preparing for the worst always the best mindset? Doing so lessens shock, so when you go for a medical exam hoping for a clean bill of health but are prepared to hear you have an incurable illness and only six months to live, you’re not completely devastated. But this mindset is deeply pessimistic and can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In the case of Donald Trump, hoping for the best means praying he’ll be removed from office as soon as possible, and preparing for the worst means realizing he could be president for another six years. But in this case, hoping for the best seems the most realistic path. In America, the mid-term elections in which all seats in the lower House of Representatives chamber and one-third of the upper Senate chamber seats will be up for election are coming up in November. The Democrats’ chances of winning a simple majority in the House of Representatives are very good since they only have to win 24 seats, and with the announced retirements of many incumbent Republicans, including House speaker Paul Ryan, Republicans seem almost to be giving up on retaining their control. The Senate will be a harder challenge for the Democrats since, because of a skewed election map, many more Democrats will be up for reelection than Republicans, putting them at greater risk of defeat. Still the Dems only need to gain two more seats to grab a majority.

If the Democrats control the House, they can initiate impeachment proceedings, and with the help of several discontented Republicans, Trump could be impeached and thus removed from office.

Is that an overly optimistic prediction? Some would say so, particularly if the US economy continues to grow. But Trump’s personal scandals — including the probable arrest of his personal attorney, Michael Cohen — and chaotic administration may drag the Republican party, which Noam Chomsky has called the most dangerous organization in the history of humankind, down.

So continue to hope for the best and prepare for the best of the worst.

Back by Poplular Demand: Russia’s S-400 In The News Again

by David Parmer / Tokyo

In February 2017 we reported about Russia’s “killer app,” the powerful S-400 Triumf missile system. The Triumf is back in the news and reports are showing that it is getting not only a lot of interest, but firm orders from countries around the world. Countries mentioned include India, China, and Turkey. Military.com (21 March2018) reports that there is also interest from the Gulf states of Qatar and Saudi Arabia in an area that has traditionally been a US arms preserve. In 2017 Iran’s Tasnim News (28 August 2017) quoted a Russian official in charge of arms exports as saying at least 10 orders for S-400 systems were being processed.

Business Insider (19 January 2018) reports that delivery of S-400 systems to China is now ongoing. Placing these missiles in Fujian province will give the PRC coverage of the Taiwan airspace, a significant leg-up if armed hostilities develop between Taiwan and the PRC down the road. Negotiations for sales of the system to India and Turkey are ongoing.

So why the interest in the S-400? Well, the answer might be found in a somewhat-gloating article in Russia’s RT news (21 March 2018). The S-400 is the best anti-aircraft, anti-missile system available today for export. It far out-performs its nearest rival, the venerable American Patriot missile system which has been around for about 30 years. The Triumf’s missiles are faster, can fly higher and can be launched much quicker.

Russia has also been deploying these missiles to Syria since 2015. Besides supporting its client state, and intimidating America and its clients, this could also be seen as a way to collect performance data in an active combat zone.

Right now American and European hi-tech manufacturers must be engaged in some serious catch-up to try to come up with powerful and versatile equipment to match what Russia has already fielded. In the meantime, Russian cash-registers will ring-up sales, and this most-lethal system will be seen in more and more places around the globe.

Do you have any thoughts on this? Please let us know.

Russia RT News article on Triumf

Photo: Russia Ministry of Defense

Russians say “Nyet!” to Charges of US Election Meddling

by David Parmer / Tokyo

The US Justice Department on 16 February 2018 handed down an indictment against 13 Russian nationals and 3 Russian organizations charging them with meddling in the 2016 election and engaging in conspiracy to defraud the United States. CNN reported on 17 February 2018 that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein said that the Russians were engaged in “information warfare against the United States.” The indictment charges the Russians interfered by:

Creating social media news
Staging political rallies
Stealing US identities to open accounts
Encouraging minorities not to vote

Russians were quick to push back. Mr. Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the indictment-named Internet Research Agency was quoted by the N.Y. Times as saying ” The Americans are very impressionable people.”

On 17 February 2018, the UK’s Independent reported former Russian ambassador to the US Sergey Kislyak as saying:

“Whatever allegations are being mounted against us are simply fantasies…” And finally, on 17 February 2018, the BBC reported that Russian Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the allegations outright calling them “blather.”

So who do you believe? The FBI or the Russians? Please log in and let us know what you think.

Photo: US Dept. of State via flickr

Will The US Attack the DPRK Anytime Soon?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

The media is full of reports that the US is seriously considering a limited attack on North Korea known as a “bloody nose” strike.

The thinking is that the US would attack the DPRK, a sovereign country with which it is not at war, and that this attack would somehow make Kim Jong-un come to his senses, abandon his nuclear ambitions and head to the negotiating table pronto.

Factored in to the thinking is apparently the assumption that Kim and his regime want most of all to survive and continue in power, and for this reason they would not launch a massive nuclear, biological, cyber or conventional attack against the US and its South Korean and Japanese friends.

Clearly, Kim would have to make some kind of military response to save face. He could very easily attack US forces in South Korea paricularly Camp Humphreys a base 60 miles from Seoul that has about 28,000 US military personnell. Such an attack would cause massive Americian casualties. This would certainly be seen as a 9/11 moment, and give the Trump administration carte blanche to pursue a wider war.

A US strike would propably be a cruise missle strike on Kim’s rocket testing and launch facilities in an effort to set back the clock on his nuclear program. Would this work? Probably not. Putting aside Korean pride for a moment, there is still the concept of juche, or self-relaiance, a revolutionary ideal put forward by DPRK founder, Kim Il-sung. This ideal of standing alone in the face of adversity no matter how grave should give an excellent indicator of the stubborn and uncompromising response from the Kim regime. There would be no heading to the negotiating table.

Will this “bloody nose” work as a threat or as an actual military operation? What do you think? Please share your thoughts.

Photo: John Pavelka via flickr

China’s Belt and Road Links Old Routes and New Opportunities

by David Parmer / Tokyo

This year RG21 will be doing a series of articles on the Belt and Road Initiative that revives the old Silk Road both on land and sea and not only brings East and West closer, but also promises benefits to those it touches along the way.

In 2017 China marked four years of its Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China’s President Xi Jinping in 2013.The original concept was “Silk Road Economic Belt” and “21st Century Maritime Road.” This project has been described as the largest overseas investment project launched by a country, with $900 billion earmarked for development. Financing for the project involves the Asian Infrastructure Bank and financial institutions in 68 countries including The Work Bank, The Asian Development Bank, The BRICS New Development Bank and the Eurasian Development Bank as well as a number of other sovereign wealth funds and institutions.

In 2017 China hosted the Belt and Road Forum For International Cooperation in Beijing on May 14-15. Representatives from 130 countries and 70 international organizations attended. Topics covered included:

Infrastructure
Energy and natural resources
Production
Project study

In our next article we will be looking at the China Railway Express, or CR Express that operates transcontinental cargo trains from places like Yiwu in China all the way to Spain.

If you have any thoughts on the Silk Road or this project, please share them with us.

Photo: Sathish J via flickr

Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller and The Russia Investigation

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Did Russia interfere in the 2016 U.S. elections? Did Donald Trump’s people collude with Russia? How involved is the Trump empire with Russian money? There is every likelihood that we will get answers to these and many more questions in 2018. The answers will come from the US Department of Justice’s investigation into Russian meddling chaired by Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller.

Mueller’s Background

Mr. Mueller was the sixth director of the FBI (2001-2013). He is a Republican appointed by Republican President George W. Bush. (Mueller is considered to be a public servant of outstanding ability and impeccable character, and this fact is widely recognized by both Democrats and Republicans.) His initial 10-year term was extended another two years by President Barack Obama.

After graduating from Princeton University Mueller joined the US Marine Corps rising to the rank of captain and being decorated for valor while serving in Viet Nam where he sustained wounds in combat. He graduated from the University of Virginia law school in 1973 and began a career of government service for 12 years where he was US Attorney and Deputy Attorney General.

In 2001 he was nominated by President George W. Bush for the post of Director of the FBI. Shortly after assuming office the United States was attacked by Saudi terrorists who flew hijacked airplanes into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. After 9/11, Mueller re-configured the FBI to have a major counter-terrorism role in defending the United States. Robert Mueller served as FBI director from 2001-2013; the second longest serving director after J. Edgar Hoover himself.

Post FBI and Special Counsel

After leaving the FBI, Mr. Mueller did a brief stint as a professor at Stanford University followed by work for a Washington law firm, he also handled some government work dealing with the Volkswagen emissions settlement during this period. On May 17, 2017 Robert Mueller was appointed as Special Counsel for the Investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 United States election.

Mueller’s investigation quickly began to bear fruit when on October 5, 2017 former Trump foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about contacts he had with the Russian government in 2016. Following this, on October 30, 2017 Trump aides Paul Manifort and Rick Gates were charged with a number of violations of US law including money laundering, violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, making false and misleading statements and conspiracy against the US. (Both have pleaded not-guilty, and of this writing Manifort is suing Mueller and the Department of Justice.)

On December 1, General Michael T. Flynn, Donald Trump’s former national security advisor entered a guilty plea and made an agreement with the Justice Department for making false testimony about his contacts with former Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak.

Where From Here?

Reports indicate that Donald Trump feels plagued by the Russia investigation and would like it to go away. Characteristically, when his people get into trouble he cuts them loose and claims that they had very little contact with him or his campaign.

There has been much speculation that Donald Trump will fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller. This is not as simple as it seems, and would not be in Trump’s interest, but that may not stop the ever-impulsive former businessman.

According to senate Intelligence Vice-Chair, Mark Warner, (CNBC, 19 December 2017) firing Mr. Mueller would be ” a political disaster for the president and a constitutional crisis.”

But reason (which seems to take as many vacations from the White House as Trump himself) may not hold sway in Trump’s mind as the drumbeat of the Russia investigation gets louder and louder. Already questions of obstruction of justice in the firing of James Comey have been raised, and now bigger questions concerning relations between Deutsche Bank and the Trump organization and between Michael Flynn and Jared Kushner and Russian money are beginning to surface.

Who knows what will happen? One thing we can be sure of however: Robert Mueller and his team will be relentless in the pursuit of the facts, for we hold this truth to be sacred–no one is above the law.

Please let us know your thought on this topic.

Photo: Wikipedia (Public Domain)

Compiled from Web sources.

Place your bets — Where will China’s next overseas military base be?

By Bill Lee

For those who like board games like Civilization, a “gamer” would surely love a game built around the development of China’s overseas bases and ports, and a board game creator would probably make a handsome profit for designing such a game. There is one problem, however: China’s rapid and multi-directional moves would soon render the game arrangement obsolete.

Now that China has a functioning military base in Djibouti with an exclusive-use port facility also attached, the game is on among pundits about where China will open its next military base. The base in Djibouti makes perfect sense since much of China’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz and China sends large contingents of UN PKO units to Africa.

China has leased ports or bought the operating rights for several ports around the world. Stretching westward, China is building an artificial island that will have port facilities in the Strait of Malacca, as well as expanding the port of Kuantan on Malaysia’s east coast. Farther south, China’s Landbridge Group acquired a 99-year lease for Darwin port at the northern tip of Australia.

China has also bought the operating rights for Colombo Port City and Hanbantotan port in the southern part of Sri Lanka. China has acquired the operating rights for Gwadar port in Pakistan. And at the doorstep to Europe, the Chinese shipping and port giant Cosco has purchased the operating rights for the port of Piraeus in Greece. Chinese companies also have leases for ports in Panama and Brazil.

So excepting the South China Sea, where might China establish another military, not commercial, base, or a combination of the two? Because it has a strong relationship with Pakistan and sells it billions of dollars worth of military hardware, the Gwadar port area seems a leading candidate, particularly considering Gwadar’s strategic location as a mid-way point to the Middle East and beyond and as the hub of China’s “Silk Road.”

China’s military and economic planners must now be moving pieces around their global game boards looking for the best location for their next overseas military facility. Where will it be?

Is Donald Trump a moron?

By Bill Lee

Is Donald Trump a moron? As leaders in Asia get ready to host the US president in the coming weeks, that question deserves consideration. As has been reported, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reportedly called Trump a “moron,” officially a “fucking moron,” because he was angered that Trump had turned a speech to the Boy Scouts of America, which Tillerson was once the president of, into a political campaign speech, replete with calls to “lock her (Hillary Clinton), up.” Tillerson never actually denied using the epithet to describe Trump so we can assume the reporting is true.

Trump regularly uses the tactic of hurling charges made against him back at the parties making the charges. Accordingly, he called the executives of NBC News, which broke the story, “morons.” He of course now regularly speaks of the “fake news” put out by network and cable news companies that originally pointed out the false claims made by Trump. And now that the Mueller investigation is getting grand juries to indict Trump associates, if not Trump himself, the Donald is accusing Hillary Clinton of receiving bribes from the Russians.

Who is the big winner in all of this? Xi Jinping. As Fareed Zakaria pointed out in his latest GPS program, Xi’s rise not only in China, but in many countries around the world, is due not necessarily to the brilliance of Xi, of which there is clear evidence, but to the decline of America, embodied by its president, Donald Trump.

The answer to the question: “Is Donald Trump a moron?” Yes.

2017 Report on Russian Military Power and Objectives

by David Parmer / Tokyo

“The Russian military has built on the military doctrine, structure, and capabilities of the former Soviet Union, and although still dependent on many of the older Soviet platforms, the Russians have modernized their military strategy, doctrine, and tactics to include use of asymmetric weapons like cyber and indirect action such as was observed in Ukraine.”

The 2017 unclassified report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (Russia Military Power–Building A Military to Support Great Power Aspirations) is the current version of a report titled Soviet Military Power mandated by then Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger in 1981.

The “comeback” of a resurgent Russian military from a hollowed-out post Soviet Union military organization to its present level of robust capabilities is documented. It says Russia has created a smaller, more mobilie and more balanced mix of forces to both protect its perceived interests and to project power in its area of influence

Evidence of this can be found in Russia’s actions including:

Seizing the Crimea Peninsula
Destabilizing eastern Ukraine
Intervening in Syria
Shaping the information environment

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the US are seen as principle threats to Russian sovereignty and ambitions. Of particular interest regarding Russian activities are its numerous cyber threats to the US and the free world. A prime example of this is the Russian “Troll Army” that tries to shape the Internet environment to Russia’s favor.

Russian military capabilities are discussed from a strategic point of view, then a section is devoted to each of its assets: Army, Navy, Rocket Forces, Cyber activities, Special Forces, Intelligence and Arms Sales.

In the post-post Cold War era, a resurgent Russia can only be ignored at a nation’s peril. Please let us know your thoughts on this matter.

(The report can be found in its entirety online by following the link below. Est. reading time: 50 minutes)

Report: Russia Military Power

Photo: Pantsir S1, Dmitry Terekhov via flickr

Finland and Sweden to Join NATO – Yes? No? Maybe?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

In 2017 media interest has been constantly shifting, from the South China Sea to the Korean Peninsula, to the Middle East to the India-China border and seemingly back again in an endless loop. One vital area of global interest, the Nordic region has received little attention, perhaps because of a lack of “incidents” during the year.

But the stakes at the top of the world are real to the countries themselves, to Europe, to NATO and to Russia.

Russian actions in Ukraine and Crimea have re-energized debate in both Sweden and Finland concerning possible NATO membership. These two countries have done an intricate dance, being both non-members of NATO but cozying up to the organization. Since the 1990s Finland and Sweden have participated in the NATO Partnership for Peace, but have stayed away from applying for full membership.

Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has issued a blunt warning to Sweden that NATO membership for Sweden would be seen in a very negative light and as a threat to Russian security. It seems that Russia draws the line with Sweden and Finland although Norway, Iceland and Denmark are full NATO members.

Over the years both countries, Sweden and Finland, have walked a thin line, attending to their own national interests yet not wanting to antagonize their powerful neighbor to the east. The topic of NATO membership is likely to emerge as a key element in the 2018-19 presidential and parliamentary elections in Finland.

Polls suggest that 50% of Swedes are now against NATO membership and 55% of Finns also oppose membership.

Finally, how does the situation look from the Russian perspective? Surely viewing NATO maneuvers and cooperation with her close neighbors, and the presence of US troops almost everywhere in the region (limited in numbers though they may be) must make Russia more than a bit uneasy.

How will this situation play out in the near and mid term? Will some “incident” occur in the near future to put the Nordic region on the world’s TV screens? Please give us your thoughts on NATO and on this matter.

Photo: Finnish Soldier in Latvia, by US Army Europe via flickr