S-400 Triumf |

Turkey The New Regional Power?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

The face of Turkey today is the face of its leader and president, Recp Tayyip Erdogan. Mr. Erdogan is imposing his vision of the way things might be not just on his own country, but also on his region and indeed the world.

The once proud and powerful Ottoman Empire disappeared after WWI, but it seems to many that the president is determined to bring back the days of glory when the Ottoman Turks were both feared and respected. Mr. Erdogan, using a combination of soft power and military force, might just be the man to do it.

Under Mr. Erdogan Turkey has asserted and inserted itself around its region and beyond. In the not-too-distant past Turkey joined NATO as its only Islamic member and was looking toward possible EU membership. But then Turkey began to assert its own policy which while not anti-western was certainly pro-Turkey.

In home waters Turkey has had an ongoing dispute with the EU over drilling for energy resources off Cyprus. The dispute began in 2018 regarding the exclusive economic zone around Cyprus. Despite opposition and recommendations from the European Council in 2019 Turkey has continued with its exploration activities.

In 2016 the powerful Turkish military began an incursion into Syria to defeat the Islamic State (ISIS/ DAESH). A long and bloody conflict ensued which had its roots all the way back to 2011. During its involvement in the Syrian civil war Turkey has lost at least 300 personnel killed and had numerous aircraft and armored vehicles destroyed. Turkey conducted another major incursion into Syria in 2019 to protect its borders and remove pro-Kurdish forces.

In January 2020 Turkey entered the Libyan civil war on the side of the side of the GNA or Government of National Accord, the established government of Libya. Turkey has reportedly supplied intelligence support, air and naval support as well as introducing Syrian mercenary fighters in support of the government. Turkey’s support and the victory of its proxies would demonstrate to the region and o the world Turkey’s ability to project power and influence the outcome of regional conflicts. In 2020 Turkey has also backed Azerbaijan in its fight with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

And it is not just its neighbors and the Europeans with whom Turkey is asserting itself, now it is the United States. In what seems to be a “no winner” contest Turkey and the US are embroiled in a very unfriendly discussion over Turkey’s decision to buy the Russian S-400 “Triumf” missile system, and incredibly lethal air defense weapon that far surpasses the US Patriot missile system.

Turkey was on board to buy the Patriot system but the US refused the technology transfer that would enable it to be copied and built. The Turks retaliated by turning to Russia for the S-400 system and the US retaliated by excluding Turkey (a NATO partner) from its F35 fighter jet program. As of later 2020, Turkey is going ahead with its S-400 acquisition (including test firing) and the US is talking sanctions.

It seems that Mr. Erdogan is determined to make Turkey a real regional power going forward. The Turkish economy is predicted to make a healthy rebound in 2021 despite some contraction. Given that and the president’s popularity among the voters, there is a good chance that modern Turkey just might become the new Ottoman Empire, at least in spirit.

Photo: Pavel Vanka via flickr

India’s Big Buy of American Defense Equipment: What are the Consequences?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Just over a month ago, on February 25, 2020, on the occasion of President Donald Trump’s visit to India, the US and India signed a massive arms deal providing India with significant upgrades in its military capabilities. The $3 billion deal centered on several different systems:

24 MH-60R Seahawk helicopters
6 Apache attack helicopters
NASAMS II Integrated Air Defense System
30 Sea Guard Drones
4 Poseidon-81 naval aircraft

The equipment, particularly the MH-60R helicopters, will enable not only enable India protect itself, but also to act in accord with the US in its Indo-Pacific strategy. These helicopters have a menu of functions, and one of the most important is its anti-submarine capability. The new helicopters will help the Indian navy to keep track of submarines operating in their area of interest, particularly Chinese submarines.

Traditionally, India was one of Russia’s best customers, and the signs of this are everywhere, particularly in the Indian air force which has a host of legacy Russian aircraft. While the replacement of Indian fighter aircraft is not on the table, America is looking to sell it newest F-21 fighter to India.

Since 2013 Russian sales of arms to India has steadily declined while American sales during the same period have steadily increased. India still keeps its options open in purchasing defense equipment. This has been shown most clearly by its purchase of Russia’s deadly S-400 Triumph air defense system. Turkey has also ordered the S-400, as has China.

With the purchase of modern new equipment and a role in the US Indo-Pacific strategy India is seen as gaining the upper hand in its relations with Pakistan and also with its ongoing engagement with China. India has traditionally held a non-aligned position in its international relations, but now the question seems to be this: How independent can Indian policy remain when American defense equipment and the American global defense strategy have such a big place reserved for its good friend India?

Photo: US Pacific Fleet via flickr

Back by Poplular Demand: Russia’s S-400 In The News Again

by David Parmer / Tokyo

In February 2017 we reported about Russia’s “killer app,” the powerful S-400 Triumf missile system. The Triumf is back in the news and reports are showing that it is getting not only a lot of interest, but firm orders from countries around the world. Countries mentioned include India, China, and Turkey. Military.com (21 March2018) reports that there is also interest from the Gulf states of Qatar and Saudi Arabia in an area that has traditionally been a US arms preserve. In 2017 Iran’s Tasnim News (28 August 2017) quoted a Russian official in charge of arms exports as saying at least 10 orders for S-400 systems were being processed.

Business Insider (19 January 2018) reports that delivery of S-400 systems to China is now ongoing. Placing these missiles in Fujian province will give the PRC coverage of the Taiwan airspace, a significant leg-up if armed hostilities develop between Taiwan and the PRC down the road. Negotiations for sales of the system to India and Turkey are ongoing.

So why the interest in the S-400? Well, the answer might be found in a somewhat-gloating article in Russia’s RT news (21 March 2018). The S-400 is the best anti-aircraft, anti-missile system available today for export. It far out-performs its nearest rival, the venerable American Patriot missile system which has been around for about 30 years. The Triumf’s missiles are faster, can fly higher and can be launched much quicker.

Russia has also been deploying these missiles to Syria since 2015. Besides supporting its client state, and intimidating America and its clients, this could also be seen as a way to collect performance data in an active combat zone.

Right now American and European hi-tech manufacturers must be engaged in some serious catch-up to try to come up with powerful and versatile equipment to match what Russia has already fielded. In the meantime, Russian cash-registers will ring-up sales, and this most-lethal system will be seen in more and more places around the globe.

Do you have any thoughts on this? Please let us know.

Russia RT News article on Triumf

Photo: Russia Ministry of Defense