Down to the Sea in Ships

                               by David Parmer

All over the world nations project power with immense armies, legions of armored vehicles, swift attack helicopters and sleek jet aircraft. Viewing these forces we might be tempted to think that sea power is a remnant of history at best. But in the geopolitics of Asia we must look to the sea. From Vladivostok in the north to the Strait of Malacca in the south to the Pacific and Indian oceans, water, and not vast steppes, is the key geographical feature. Navies, far from being a thing of the past are the mobile chess pieces with which countries will vie for their strategic goals. And naval technology is constantly evolving to keep up with ever-changing military/political scenarios unfolding on the watery surface of our planet.

This week we will take a look at three ships designed to project force and further national interest. First we will look at Taiwan, then China and finally the United States. 

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                 Taiwan Tuo Jiang Corvette (Photo: China Post)

In March 2014 the Taiwan navy took delivery of the first of its new Tuo Jiang class High Efficiency Wave Piercing Catamarans. The Tuo Jiang is a 500 ton twin hull boat that is capable of speeds up to 38kts and has a range of 2,000 nautical miles. The boat carries a crew of 41 and packs a variety of lethal weapons systems. These include eight HF-3 supersonic anti-ship missiles, eight HF-2 anti-ship missiles, six M-32 torpedoes, a primary 76mm gun in front, a Close In Weapons System (CIWS) and two 12.7mm machine guns.

The vessel’s speed, stealth configuration and weapons systems have led it to be dubbed the “carrier killer.” Analysts see the Tuo Jiang vessels (and a total of 12 are now scheduled to be built) as Taiwan adopting the doctrine of asymmetric warfare against its biggest potential rival, the PRC. The doctrine of asymmetric warfare lets a smaller or less technologically advanced adversary use unconventional weapons and tactics to deal with its larger rival. The above-mentioned speed, stealth and weapons package make the Tuo Jiang a formidable adversary for bigger, more conventional naval hardware. The PRC, however, is reported to have a fleet of 60 similar, swift vessels matching the Tuo Jiang.

54087c4bjw1enb7cpzrljj20go0b4dgm-102002_copy2.jpg     China Coast Guard Cutter Haijing (Photo: WantChina Times)

While Taiwan and the U.S. (see below) are exploring smaller and faster vessels to further their strategic game plans, China is going for big. The China Coast Guard (CCG) has ordered two 10,000 ton cutters (12,000 tons loaded), the first, the Haijing 2901 is already in the water at the Shanghai Jiangnan Shipyards and painted with CCG colors. These two will be the largest CG vessels in the world-and certainly larger than Japan’s Shikishima class cutters. Tops speed is reported to be 25kts.

Initial reports said the vessels would be armed with powerful water cannon, but now armament is listed as a 76mm rapid- fire naval gun, two secondary turrets and two AA machine guns. When completed these ships will certainly be deployed in the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku area of the East China Sea where they would signal the PRC’s intentions and determination, if not shift the balance of power in the area.

 lcs-430.jpgUSS Independence (LCS 2-front) and USS Freedom (LCS 1-rear)  (Photo: Naval Technology.com)

In keeping with the trend for smaller, faster and mission-versatile requirements, the U.S. Navy adopted two versions of the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS). The Navy opted for two versions of these vessels designed to operate in shallow water and near-shore littoral zones. The first is the monohull Freedom class designed by Lockheed-Martin, and the second is the Independence class trimaran built by General Dynamics/Astal USA. The first Freedom class ship entered service in 2008 and the first Independence class ship entered service in 2009. Although the ships vary greatly, they have the same modular mission concept. The ships are designed to be able to switch “modules” to handle a variety of missions and challenges. These mission modules include:

 

  • Surface warfare
  • Anti-submarine warfare
  • Mine countermeasures
  • Irregular warfare

 

Both ships have a top speed of 40kts, carry a crew of 98, and have 2 MH-60 helicopters. Armament consists of a 57mm gun, 21-RIM-116 missiles and 4X50.cal machine guns.

Production of LCSs was originally set at 55 ships, but as of 2014 this has been scaled back to 32. There is now talk of building a next generation of Small Surface Combatants (SSC) based on the LCS hull. Export of the LCS has not gotten much beyond the interest level by foreign governments.

 

http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/taiwan-receives-first-carrier-killer-ship/ 

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20141216000064&cid=1101

http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/littoral/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What Will 2015 Bring?

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                                        Whole Earth (Photo: NASA via Wikimedia)

As 2014 winds down, we can take a moment and look forward to 2015 and try to figure out what the world will be like next year. It is clear that many issues prominent in 2014 will continue to be front page news: Ukraine, Korean nuclear issues, the Russian economy, the Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute and the rise of the Islamic State. Terrorism worldwide will probably a key issue, with very few countries being immune to terrorist threats. The volatile price of energy and its impact on the environment will also be front and center. And surely some very unexpected things will happen. So what is your opinion? How will 2015 go?  Do you see a bright year, or a dark year, or more typically a mix of light and dark? Log in and give us your thoughts.

America’s Next Secretary of Defense – Ashton Carter

p120514ck-0104.jpgIntroducing Ashton Carter (Photo: White House Gov.)

On November 24, 2014, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel resigned after two years on the job. Hagel had a rough confirmation hearing and never seemed to find his feet at the Department of Defense. Hagel was hired to wind things down; the U.S. military was set to shrink and U.S. forces were pulling out of Afghanistan. Reports suggest that Hagel was having a rough time during his two years, particularly with President Obama’s inner circle.

 Several names were put forward as replacements for Mr. Hagel, but in the end the President settled on Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter. Mr. Carter served as Assistant Secretary of Defense under President Bill Clinton and Deputy Secretary of Defense from October 2011-December 2013. Mr. Carter’s specialties at the Pentagon were budgets and weapons acquisitions. He is reported to have both technical knowledge and policy knowledge. It is expected that his confirmation hearings will go smoothly.

 Mr. Carter has an impressive resume. He was a Rhodes Scholar, and was awarded a Ph.D. in Physics from Oxford University. He also has degrees in Physics and Medieval History from Yale University. Mr. Carter also lectured at Harvard University’s Kennedy School. If confirmed, Ashton Carter would probably have no problems with the Obama insiders. He also promised in his nomination speech to say exactly what he thinks.  Mr. Carter’s confirmation hearings will begin in 2015.

Insight into Mr. Carter’s thinking:

Foreign Affairs –  Running The Pentagon Right by Ashton Carter 

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/140346/ashton-b-carter/running-the-pentagon-right

Crude Oil Prices Go Down and Down and…

 

Crude oil prices are hovering at around $60/barrel at the end of 2014, and “oversupply” is the word of the day in the oil business. Too much oil means prices are dropping and will drop still further. The U.S. and Canada move forward producing their own shale oil. Worldwide demand is down, and energy exporting countries like Russia and Iran are hurting. The Saudis say they will not cut production even if the price goes to $20/barrel. Some predict that crude oil will never again climb to $100/barrel. Never is a long time, and history teaches us that things change. But for the short term, and that means in the first half of 2015, we will probably see the continuation of the oil glut, and its associated economic fallout. So what do you think? Are lower prices for crude oil a good thing? Or not? Log in a give us your thoughts on this.

Putin & Russia – What a Difference a Year Makes

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 Putin’s 2014 News Conference (Photo: Kermlin.ru)

Just about a year ago, on 21 Dec. 2013, we posted an article describing Vladimir Putin’s banner year. Things were going right for the president of Russia. Russia had been instrumental in brokering a Syrian peace deal, an energy agreement with Ukraine went in Russia’s favor, and the Sochi Olympic games were just down the road. A smiling Putin faced the world. But events have a way of making even the rosiest dream into a nightmare. In December 2014 a defiant Putin faced the world at his annual news conference. He promised that the economy would turn around within two years. And the while the economy wasn’t his only problem, it was certainly his main. Russia’s ruble had plunged in value by December 2014, and western sanctions imposed because of Russia’s support of Ukrainian separatists and Russia’s annexation of Crimea were taking their toll.

Added to that was the downing of a Malaysian airliner in July killing 283 passengers and 15 crew. Ukrainian fighters, using Russian equipment, are thought to be to blame. Russian oil exports plummeted as the global price of crude continued to slide at year end. Putin himself remains firm in his beliefs, and his popularity ratings would be the envy of any elected president in the world. Russia and China might again become new best friends, particularly with the progress being made on a new Silk Road. But Vladimir Putin has a tough road ahead in 2015. Hard economic times, sanctions and international isolation look  like they are what is on the cards for the coming year. But let us remember that Putin and the Russians are hardy survivors, and hard times don’t necessarily last forever. Maybe next December will tell a different story. Certainly the Russian president hopes so.

Hong Kong Protesters Fold Their Tents

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                                              Hong Kong Cleanup (Wikimedia)

Police moved in and cleared the last of the Hong Kong protesters on Thursday 11 December. Police arrested 200 people, while a reported 800 people were detained and released the following day. It was over after 75 days. Workers cleared barricades and cleaned up. Life went back to normal. The question is what was accomplished? The Beijing government did not back down on its decision to vet candidates for the 2017 elections. On the whole, Hong Kong police acted with restraint and there was no loss of life on either side. So what was accomplished? Is this a complicated situation or very simple? Will protests take place again next year, or will students and opponents switch tactics? Can any compromise be reached before 2017? Please log in and give us your thoughts.

Tokyo 2020 Olympic Stadium Draws Fire

dezeen_Japan-National-Stadium-Zaha-Hadid-Tokyo-2020_1_784.jpg                                                        New Olympic Statium (http://www.dezeen.com)

Zaha Hadid’s design for the 2020 Olympic came under fire from Japanese architects this year resulting in changes in the original design. A group of Japanese architects led by award winning Fumiko Maki attacked Hadid’s proposed building as being too big, too expensive and poorly designed. The architects led by Maki included Toyo Ito, Kengo Kuma and Sou Fujimoto.

On 8 July 2014 dezeen magazine reported that the Japan Sports Council had reduced the budget for the stadium from 300 billion Yen to 189 billion Yen. Zaha Hadid Architects responded by adapting the design to make materials more cost efficient.

The national stadium is not the only venue that is being re-thought. The construction of 10 other venues are now being reviewed due to rising labor and construction costs. The use of existing facilities is being proposed as a cost-cutting alternative. On 19 November 2014  Reuters reported that, IOC Vice President John Coates urged Japan to move events outside the city to cut spending. Such moves would go against Japan’s Olympic bid proposal calling for no venue to be more than 8km from the Olympic Village.

It is likely that some solutions will be arrived at in meetings to be held in Japan in early 2015. Whatever the outcome, it is clear that is back to the drawing board for the 2020 Olympics.

 

Asian Waters— China’s Busy Bohai Sea Region

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                       China’s Bohai Sea Region (NASA)

                          by David Parmer

Viewed from space, the Bohai Sea region could be seen as an emerald dragon penetrating the Asian landmass. And that impression of power and energy is certainly borne out at ground level. The Bohai sea, the innermost gulf of the Yellow Sea is said to be one of the busiest seaways in the world. Whatever is happening in North China or will happen in North China is connected with the Bohai Sea.

640px-Seaways_Plan_for_the_Bohai_Sea.svg.png                                  (Map: Wikimedia)

To the north and east of the Bohai Sea is the Sea of Japan, to the south is the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea. The sea (and until recently often referred to as a “bay”) has its opening through the Bohai Strait which runs between the Liaoning peninsula on the north and the Shandong peninsula on the south.  The Bohai Sea is the ocean outlet for North China and West China, and is the commercial hub known as the Bohai Sea Economic Zone, which could be thought of as stretching west, past Beijing all the way to Inner Mongolia and as far north as China goes. The Bohai Sea is bordered by Shandong, Liaoning,  and Hebei provinces and by the municipality of Tianjin. Prominent cities include Tianjin, Tangshan, Yantai and Dalian.

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A variety of industries make the Bohai Sea region the powerhouse of North China that it is. These include fisheries, shipbuilding, transportation, hydropower, salt making and oil and gas. Oil fields include Shengli, Suizhong 36-1and Gudao. In addition, several rivers flow into the Bohai Sea including the Yellow ,Hai, Liao and Luan.

Development of the region is not confined land: a plan has been put forward to build the world’s longest (123km) undersea tunnel connecting Dalian on the Liaoning peninsula to Yantai on the Shandong peninsula. This would cut travel time from eight hours to just under one hour. Construction costs and technology are under discussion but all indications suggest that the plan is a go for the not so distant future.

With so much development and constant traffic it is understandable that there are environmental concerns for the Bohai Sea area. Negative impacts that have been cited include pollution in Bohai Bay, loss of wetlands and a decrease in fish catches. These notwithstanding, it looks like the Bohai Sea and its surrounding area will only increase in importance to its region and to the overall Chinese economy.

 

http://www.unep.org/dewa/giwa/areas/reports/r34/regional_definition34b_giwa_r34.pdf

http://www.pemsea.org/profile/pollution-hotspots/bohai-sea

 

Hong Kong Unrest, Taiwan Elections—How Will Beijing React?

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                             by David Parmer

This past weekend saw Taiwan’s ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party take a major beating from the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The landslide win by the DPP lead to the resignation of Prime Minister Jiang Yi-hua. The ruling KMT has had increasingly warm relations with Beijing, and noticeable successes in trade, banking and tourism. However, the DPP’s gains suggest that the Taiwanese people are not entirely happy with the KMT, and this election was their chance to bring the ruling party’s mandate into question. One factor that might have influenced voters is the ongoing Occupy movement in the Hong Kong SAR. Far from over, the movement still has support and has gotten no satisfaction regarding its demands regarding the 2017 elections in Hong Kong with regard to candidate approval by Beijing. Taiwan has its own presidential elections in 2016, and the results of the nine-in-one election of November 2014 do not bode well for the KMT. So Beijing has the possibility of continued strife in Hong Kong, and the possibility of an unacceptable (anti-PRC) government in Taipei. The next 24 months will be a time to watch. How will Beijing react? Or will it take proactive steps to deal with these two situations on its periphery? Please log in and give us your thoughts.

 

Taiwan Elections 2014: DPP Scores Big Win

Taiwan DPP Victory 29 Nov. 2014

                               DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen Announces Victory in 2014 Election (Photo: DPP)

Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) scored a decisive win over the ruling Nationalist Party (KMT) this weekend. The nine-in-one elections saw the opposition victorious in Taipei, Taoyuan and Greater Taichung. This election was the first time that the KMT had lost Taipei since 1998.

As a result of the election, Prime Minister Jiang Yi-huah resigned. President Ma Ying-jeou accepted Jiang’s resignation, apologized for the defeat and vowed to fight on. Observers seen the local election results as a referendum on Ma’s presidency, and a possible barometer for the 2016 presidential elections.The dismal showing by the KMT suggests that a majority of the Taiwanese people are not happy with KMT policies, particularly its ongoing relationship with Beijing. 

Taipei Times: Premier Quits After Landslide Defeat:

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2014/11/30/2003605651

DPP Chair’s Remarks on Victory:

http://english.dpp.org.tw/the-taiwanese-people-have-spoken/