Armed and Ready to Negotiate?

By Bill Lee

North Korea launched another ICBM on 29 November, this time a Hwasong-15, its most powerful missile to date. Soaring to an altitude of 4,500 kilometers on a lofted trajectory, the missile, if its trajectory were normalized, could have a range of more than 8,000 miles, putting all of the continental United States, as well as the rest of the world’s major cities, within North Korea’s sights. Reaction to the launch in Japan and the United States seemed muted at first until officials figured out the capability of the missile.

The statement put out by the Korean Central News Agency was very telling, however. The statement, purportedly issued by the government, made the amazing claim that the DPRK had basically completed its missile and nuclear development. The Hwasong-15, the statement said, “meets the goal of the completion [boldface mine] of the rocket weaponry system development set by the DPRK.” Kim Jong Un was quoted as flatly saying, “We have finally realized the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force, the cause of building a rocket power.” Very significantly, the statement also claimed that the missile carried a “super-large heavy warhead,” clearly a reference to a mock nuclear warhead. North Korea has completed its missile and rocket development.

Or has it? The three remaining technical questions are whether the nuclear warhead housing could survive the re-entry into and fall through the Earth’s atmosphere, whether they have an accurate guidance system (seems they do), and whether a nuclear device would actually detonate. To ascertain the last question, an above-ground nuclear test would be necessary.

However, the KCNA statement also struck a conciliatory note and had none of the bluster of past statements. North Korea’s development of a nuclear arsenal is to “defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country from the U.S. imperialists’ nuclear blackmail…and therefore does not pose any threat to any country and region…That is our solemn declaration.” That’s as good as it is going to get from North Korea.

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Photo by BipHoo Company via Flickr