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Oct. 2014 – 21 Asian countries sign on to AIIB (Photo: People’s Daily)
The deadline for joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as a founding member is March 31, 2015 . Now, in late March 2015, despite U.S. opposition to the bank, it seems everyone is on board: 22 Asian nations, the Europeans (UK, France, Germany Italy) and even Australia. Only South Korea and Canada are still on the fence.
The bank is a done deal, and most observers believe the U.S. made a big mistake by opposing the AIIB, and that it made that mistake very publicly. The U.S. had its reasons for its opposition: it was concerned whether the bank world maintain high standards, be transparent and observe environmental and social safeguards.
The U.S. asked its friends and allies to take a “wait and see” attitude concerning the above points before joining the bank.
The U.S. has strong influence in the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Asian Development Bank. Some observers believed that with the AIIB, China would not only get to set the agenda, but also use the bank as a tool of “soft power.”
U.S. friends and allies contended that by joining the bank their very presence will ensure that China runs the bank according to international standards, and will not be able to use it as a tool for its geopolitical agenda.
One fact that often gets overlooked in this discussion is that there is a real need for funds for Asian infrastructure development. Estimates of capital needed between 2010-2020 by the Asian Development Bank run to $776 billion. With the present institutions in place, there is a real shortfall of development capital. Hence the AIIB is a good thing for the region and its growing economies. China’s CCTV ran a story on March 19 with the headline: “China-proposed AIIB is a gift to the world.” The piece ended with the writer suggesting that the U.S. get on board and lend its expertise to the project.
And already it looks like the U.S. is doing damage control. A Wall Street Journal article dated March 22 reports that the U.S. is now holding talks with the Chinese about possible cooperation with the new bank. It seems unlikely that the U.S. will join the AIIB, but cooperation might be another matter.
One thing that can be taken away from this story is the rising arc of Chinese power and influence and the waning arc of post-war U.S. power that has been ascendant and supreme for the past 70 years. In the realm of history, the story of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will be like a few raindrops on the ocean-maybe a footnote at best. But what has happened this spring of 2015 around the issue is a major shift. The friends and allies of the U.S. decided to go their own way, publicly and without remorse. And once done, they will do again. This may be the point when history says the post-war period was finally over.
Turkish Weekly Article on AIIB
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/182018/china-led-aiib-attracts-more-and-more-european-members.html
CCTV Article on AIIB
http://english.cntv.cn/2015/03/19/ARTI1426756432464213.shtml
Wall Street Journal Article on Cooperation With AIIB
Asia Society China File: What Went Wrong With U.S. Strategy