タグ: Brexit

The Year Begins With A Bang.

Well, 2020 started off with bang. We are not quiet getting back to things as usual but starting things from a very dangerous place. World tensions were ramped right up to a 9.0 over the US airstrike that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Tensions have been high since Donald Trump became president, and now they have gone to an all-time high.

As written in an earlier RG21 post, Iran is no match for the US one on one. Iran, however, does have the ability to conduct asymmetric warfare against the US through it naval and Special Forces and its proxies throughout the region.

Even before this, there were signs that things are changing in the region. December 2019 saw the first combined Iranian, Chinese, Russian naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman. If there was ever a sign of the waning and waxing of world powers, this could be it. America’s decline in world power and prestige could be traced to these exercises.

2020 also no relief for China in its ongoing problem in Hong Kong. All indications are that this problem will continue throughout the year although council elections in 2019 might have given the democratic opposition the face it needed to be seen as legitimate and to be taken seriously. China’s best bet is to let Hong Kong air its grievances through the ballot box and to responsibly govern under the One Country, Two Systems scheme.

The British people have sent a clear message about Brexit: it is their will that it happen. Before there was doubt, but the election was a “second referendum” and Boris Johnson is empowered to perform Brexit and bring Britain out of the EU.

French President Emmanuel Macron has his own set of problems and demonstrations on a Hong Kong scale minus the violence. It is just possible that Macron will hold on for a long time and join the ranks of France’s most respected presidents.

And the United States is scheduled to have a presidential election in November that will decide whether Donald Trump and the Republicans get another four years, or whether the Democrats can cobble together a coalition of voters strong enough to gain the White House and the senate. The events of the first week of January indicate that 2020 will be truly memorable–that is, if things continue at the current pace.

What is your opinion and what are your predictions for 2020? Please share your ideas with us.

Photo: Ancient Persian Guardsman via flickr.

Person of Interest : Ursula von der Leyen, President-elect of the European Commission

Germany’s defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen has been narrowly elected to be the first female President of the European Commission. Von der Leyen will assume office 1 November 2019, one day after Britain’s promised departure from the EU.

Mrs. von der Leyen is a loyal ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and has held several important positions including the Ministry of Labor and the Ministry of Defense since 2013. As defense minister she performed oversight on military procurement and managed the withdrawal of German forces from Afghanistan.

Von der Leyen, 60 is the daughter of a career civil servant. She attended the London School of Economics and Hanover Medical School where she received her M.D. She is married to a fellow physician with whom they have 7 children. In addition to German, she speaks French and English.

As President of the European Commission, it is likely that she will continue to focus on women’s rights and environmental issues as well as strongly supporting European unity. Mrs. von der Leyen was though to be a strong candidate to replace Angela Merkel as German chancellor, but now it looks like her career will be capped with another and different challenge of equal, if not greater, importance.

Photo: Archive of the Sec. of Defense via flickr

EU’s Jean Claude Junker on Brexit

                   “The European Dream Still Exists”

On June 23 the British people voted in a referendum to leave the European Union. It was close: Leave 52%, Remain 48%.

The world has seen the result: financial turmoil and political uncertainty. It appears that the Leave group had no “Plan B” for their eventual win; in fact it appears that they did not even have a “plan A.”

Media attention has focused on financial turbulence and British domestic politics. But what about the Europeans, what do they think?

A good indication can be gathered from the speech of the President of the European Commission, Mr. Jean Claude Juncker, to the European Parliament on June 28th. President Juncker focused on these key points:

  • There will be not secret negotiations with the British
  • Britain has voted, and Britain must act on that vote
  • The EU will continue to move ahead despite its diminished status

Here is the full text of Mr. Juncker’s speech. It gives us a good indication about European intentions, and shows us how a statesman thinks as opposed to a mere politician.

Mr. Juncker’s speech in full (Reading Time: 7 minutes)

 

 

Photo: European Parliament via flickr