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The White House 2016 – Who Is In The Race?

(Photo: white house.gov)

Isn’t it a little early to be thinking about the 2016 U.S. general election? Maybe not. Surely by early next year several people will declare themselves to be candidates for either the Republican or Democratic nomination. Already we can see the outline of the race to come. But who are the people in question? Let’s take a look.

Republicans

Senator Paul Rand

Governor Jeb Bush

Governor Christ Christie

Governor Bobby Jindal

Democrats

Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton

Vice President Joe Biden

Senator Elizabeth Warren

Senator Bernie Sanders

Senator Russ Feingold

Governor Andrew Cuomo

Governor Jerry Brown

Governor Martin O’Malley

These are the early possibilities. Some names will surely disappear, and some new ones will appear. Dark horses will appear seemingly from nowhere and some leading candidates will bow out for one reason or another. In short, it will be presidential politics as usual in the USA. And it will surely be exciting and worth watching.

What do you think? Please log in and let us know.

Hillary 2016!

(Photo: Xinhua)

by David Parmer

Hillary. In American politics, in 2014, that one word is enough. Google “Hill…” in Google News, and the first suggestion that you get will be: “Hillary Rodham Clinton.” The next general election is in 2016, but it looks as if the campaign has already begun. Like runners milling about the starting line of a marathon, stretching, getting hydrated and pacing around to burn off nervous energy, a list of potential candidates both Republican and Democrat are waiting for the starting gun of the 2016 election.

For the record, as of August 2014, Hillary says she has not decided whether to run or not. It is a clever tactic, for once she does declare, the race is on, and it doesn’t end until election day 2016. Now she has space to prepare and explore options without intense media scrutiny. (There is still plenty of scrutiny, just not at the white hot level it will be when she surely does announce her candidacy.) It seems, that, as for now, as the old saying goes, she is getting her ducks in order. Some of that ordering is thought to be learning from the mistakes she made in 2008 when she ran for the nomination against Barack Obama. And making sure they don’t happen again.

So maybe Hillary won’t run? Not a chance. A glance at Clinton’s career track from Girl Scout to Wellesley College to Yale Law to political staffer to high-powered attorney to First Lady of the U.S. to Senator to rival for the 2008 Democratic nomination to 67th Secretary of State of the United States, points to one thing: the Presidency.

Hillary Rodham Clinton, indeed, has an impressive track record. Starting out as a conservative Republican she has morphed into being a mainstream Democrat. Along the way she has consistently championed women’s and children’s rights. In foreign policy she has advocated “smart power ” a mix of hard and soft power that includes military, economic capabilities, alliances and partnerships. And while she was at State, she visited 112 countries the most of any secretary of state.

So when will Hillary “decide” ? Maybe early next year. Or maybe the race has already begun and she is ahead, out in front and heading for that goal line that she can see ever so clearly. The media seems to think so, and probably most Americans do too. Whatever the outcome, whether she runs for President or not, it is clear Hillary will do it on her terms.

Will Iraq survive? Should it?

On August 14,2014 Iraq’s prime minister, Nouri al Maliki, agreed to step down. He is to be replaced by Haider al Abadi. But will Maliki’s resignation clear the air? Does a united Iraq have a chance? Some say that the dissolution of Iraq has already happened and that separate Shi’a, Sunni and Kurd regions are de-facto a new country. Can some type of federal system exist? Can Mr. al Abadi undo the factionalism created by Mr. al Maliki? Is Iraq as we know it finished? Will it survive? Should it? Please log in and post your comments.

Photo: US Dep. of State via flickr

Kurdistan’s Peshmerga–Key Players In A New Game

(Photo: Enno Lenze/flickr)

by David Parmer

News reports on 18 August 2014 report that Iraqi special forces together with Kurdish peshmerga and supported by U.S. and Iraqi air power have taken back the Mosul Dam from IS (Islamic State) fighters. The Mosul dam, located on the Tigris river, is a key objective in the fight with IS forces, as it supplies electric power to northern Iraq and its destruction would cause flooding and devastation to most of the country.

The question is, who are these peshmerga, and how do they fit into the puzzle that is the ever-changing face of the early 21st century middle east?

The peshmerga (“those who face death”) who have a reputation as fierce and disciplined fighters, are the soldiers of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurdish people (numbering around 25 million) have no independent homeland, but are scattered around the region from Iraq and Iran to Turkey and Syria. While organized Kurdish military have existed since the sundown of the Ottoman empire, it was not until December 1945 when Mustafa Barzani created the short-lived Mahabad Republic that the peshmerga came into being. These forces fought in the Kurd-Iraq war and in the rebellion against the central government. Finally in a Kurdish civil war the KDP, Kurdish Democratic Party fought with the PUK, Party for United Kurdistan until a U.S. brokered peace deal was put in place. During the U.S. Invasion of Iraq there was U.S.-Kurdish cooperation, and in 2003, the peshmerga joined U.S. Special Forces in defeating Saddam Hussein.

After Saddam’s downfall the Kurds were granted a semi-independent region in the new Iraq. The peshmerga remained intact under the new government, and continued to have a reputation for being an effective military force. Then in 2014, in a spillover from the Syrian war, ISIS, or the Islamic State as it is now called, started to seize territory in northern Iraq in a effort to establish an Islamic caliphate. Initially, IS forces were thought to be headed for Bagdad, but they attacked north instead taking territory and routing the Iraqi army, seizing abandoned heavy weapons and armor at the same time.

In August 2014 the peshmerga were pushed back, and it looked like key Kurdish territory would fall to the IS offensive. The U.S. acted relatively quickly. On 8 August 2014 President Obama ordered bombing of IS positions and targets and promised military support.

Numbers of us military personnel have been increased, and there are now an estimated 1,000 U.S. troops involved.

There was general surprise that the peshmerga had been pushed back so soundly by IS. Retreating in itself is not the end in warfare: commanders from George Washington to Mao Zedong have had to retreat time and again, and gone on to ultimate victory. But the temporary defeat seems to have tarnished the reputation of the peshmerga and given a wake-up call to all concerned.

In the August 2014 war, the peshmerga had to face battle-hardened IS forces, that were tough, committed and confident. The peshmerga were skilled in guerrilla warfare, but they faced the newly heavily-armed IS forces who fought a new type of semi-conventional fight. IS forces simply overwhelmed them.

In a blog post for the Washington Institute, Michael Knights cites several reasons for the poor Kurdish performance.

Poor positioning of forces
Kurd rivalry
Alienation of Sunni tribes
Inexperienced troops
Shortages of equipment and logistics

The upshot of the August action has been commitments from several nations to support the peshmerga. These include the U.S., and Britain, with reports of Iranian involvement as well. The peshmerga have, and are to receive weapons and logistical support as well as air support and intelligence.

The support seems to be working, and in the first major action, Iraqi and Kurdish forces have moved on the Mosul dam and driven out IS fighters. So for the present it looks like the Kurds will be the surrogates of many parties interested in seeing IS stopped, and will get all the support they need. The concern in the west is that a resurgent Kurdish military will further fuel hopes for an independent Kurdish homeland. But for the time being, in northern Iraq, the peshmerga are the only game in town.

Willing to face death: A history of Kurdish military forces

http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3203&context=etd

What Iraq’s Kurdish Peshmerga Really Need

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/what-iraqs-kurdish-peshmerga-really-need

In 2064 What Will The World Be Like?

50 years from now what kind of world will we have? It is safe to say that many current problems will be solved, or will solve themselves, and new ones will be front page news (assuming newspapers are still around). Minor territorial disputes in Asia may be resolved peacefully, or military action may have altered the map. Of interest is Taiwan which has remained independent since 1949. Recent murmurs from the PRC indicate that this situation can not continue indefinitely. Will the PRC let time sort out the situation, or will direct action be taken? Great powers are rising in Asia, and India will certainly pull itself together much the same way Japan and China have done. Pakistan remains an enigma, for it often appears more a collection of tribal areas than a sovereign nation. The map of the Middle East is right now being re-drawn. Of particular interest is Iran, a nation yet to come into its own in the 21st century. But surely Iran will be a major player in this century, if not in the first half, then surely in the second half. A peaceful, prosperous and powerful Iran could be a great force for stability in its neighborhood. Well, we will just have to wait and see what happens in 50 years, or maybe the seeds are being sown now, and a careful scrutiny can give us some inklings of things to come. What do you think? Please log in and let us know.

50 Years Ago – The World in 1964

50 years–If you are young it is forever, if you are old, it’s just last week.

by David Parmer

In 1964 Japan hosted the Summer Olympics in Tokyo from October 10-24. If ever there was a symbolic meaning to the venue of the games, this was it. In Just 19 years from 1945, Japan had transformed herself from a defeated, bombed-out shell of a country into a world economic power, respected for its hi-tech products of unquestionable quality, whose names like Sony, Panasonic, Nikon, Toshiba and Honda were known worldwide. Domestically, the Japan National Railways (JNR) ran the Shinkansen or Bullet Train from Tokyo to Osaka. It was another amazing feat of post-war Japanese engineering and technology. Also, in 1964 Japanese citizens were again given the right to travel abroad, and travel they did in flag-following groups to all parts of the world.

In 1964, China too made its mark on the international stage. On October 16, 1964 China exploded its first 22 kiloton nuclear device in the Xinjiang region of western China. China thus became the fifth member of the nuclear club after the U.S., Soviet Union, Britain and France. The year saw China launch what might be called a foreign-relations offensive by establishing ties with a host of countries around the world. Premier Zhou Enlai travelled to Burma, Pakistan, Ceylon and several countries in Africa. The jewel in this particular crown was the normalization of ties and recognition of the PRC by France, the first western power to do so.

In the United States, Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater for the Presidency. In 1964, the United States faced three big issues: the Civil Rights Movement, the Space Race and The Cold War. On July 2, 1964 the Civil Rights Act was passed abolishing segregation. (In might be noted in passing that this was roughly 100 years after President Abraham Lincoln had issued the Emancipation proclamation freeing the slaves.) On November 28, 1964 the US launched Mariner 4, one of the first in a long series of Mars probes that continues even until today. The Space Race was an unofficial completion with the Soviet Union, which they led off by launching a basketball-sized satellite in 1958, and which would culminate with an American Moon landing in 1969. The Cold War with the Soviet Union took a new face in 1964 when Nikita Khrushchev was ousted and a collective leadership was put in place under Leonid Brezhnev. The following years came to be known as the Brezhnev Era, which was noted for its economic stagnation but significant military strengthening. On August 7, 1964 the US congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution giving the president war powers to deal with North Vietnam after an attack on a US naval vessel. The US also sent an additional 5,000 advisors to South Vietnam, bringing the number of Americans on the ground to 21,000.

Finally, in 1964, French writer John Paul Sartre won the Nobel Prize for Literature, and Martin Luther King won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Of Space Research and Budgets

Indian Satellite Launch Vehicle (Photo: ISRO)

Why should we spend money to explore space? This is a common question around the world. The usual answer is that there are many benefits right here on Earth that come from space programs. Governments, however, are held accountable for the monies that they spend, and ordinary people want some return on investment. Japan has a reported budget of about $3.5 billion. Reports say a reorganization of Japan’s program is going to be expected to show some practical returns at the expense of pure science. India has a budget of around $1.3 billion. While exploration is still a priority, a more-down to earth focus has been to develop the rocket power to put heavy satellites into orbit, thus freeing Indian from dependence of foreign launch capabilities, and putting her into the launch business. China’s space budget is also said to be about $1.3 billion, matching India’s. And China has a whole host of missions in the works for 2016, 2017 and culminating in a 2020 Mars mission. China’s return on investment seems to be technological advancement and national pride. And NASA? $17.8 billion dollars looks like a lot…but 2012 saw cuts and more cuts. America’s leading role in space exploration and research may be a thing of the past as a result of budget cutting and lack of vision. Budgets, the final frontier. Log in and let us know your thoughts.

Life On Mars? Not So Far Off.

Mars Curiosity Rover (Photo:NASA)

by David Parmer/Tokyo

In the latter part of this century, the most common life form on Mars will probably be humans from Asia-Pacific. These would be Chinese, Indians or Americans.

India now has a Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM), Mangalyaan, headed for Mars and scheduled to enter Mars orbit September 24, 2014. The Indian MOM is to be preceded by a NASA vehicle, Maven, that will enter orbit September 21, 2014. Mangalyaan was launched by the Indian Space Research Organisation in November 2013 on a shoestring budget of $75,000,000, attesting to Indian ingenuity and ability to “make do.”

Media reports see India’s space programs as space race with China similar to the U.S. vs. Russia space race of the 1960s. Evidence suggests that China is not interested in “racing” into space, but is taking a slow and steady approach, with the emphasis on “steady.” In an National Public Radio (NPR) broadcast in 2013, the director of the Chinese National Space Science Center, Wu Ji said that China, when it sends its Mars mission, will not duplicate the science that the U.S. and India do, but will rather set new scientific goals. The Chinese, buoyed by the success of the Chang’e 3 spacecraft and its rover Yutu on their lunar mission are now looking toward a 2020 Mars mission with a 2030 planetary samples mission. China’s first Mars mission, the Yinghuo -1 launched on November 9,2011 was a failure. However, failed Mars missions abound as the challenges are immense. So the failure of China’s first attempt was not unusual. What seems clear, however, is China’s long-terms national commitment to space exploration.

NASA has been in the vanguard of Mars exploration with a history of fly-by, orbiter and lander and robot programs. The Curiosity rover, which landed in 2012 has been a stunning success performing flawlessly and doing good scientific research, including finding what appears to be evidence of ancient streams. Evidence of water points to ancient life. All very exciting. NASA, like China, has its sights set on 2020 for its next rover mission. The 2020 mission, already well into the planning stages) will look for potential life on Mars, gather knowledge about the planet and demonstrate techniques for further exploration.

Israel VS Palestine: Will There Ever Be Peace?

TV images again show Israel’s tanks moving toward the West Bank and Israel’s bombs falling on Palestinian targets. The same TV programs show Hammas missiles headed into Israel. People are dying on both sides of the border. And? Cease fires take place and are broken and more people die. Hammas has missiles, just as the Taliban had Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs). Both use(d) a low-tech weapon to combat an heavily armed and technological superior opponent. For the Palestinians the missile is their IED, and their equalizer. But weapons systems are not the real question here. The question is how can Israel and Palestine co-exist peacefully? The answer to that question may well not come until the end of this century or beyond when factors outside the problem change the context of the stalemate. What those factors will be is anybody’s guess. Peace in the Middle East? How about peace between Israel and Palestine? What do you think? Log in and give us your answer.

China-Japan Tourism Rebounds in 2014

China Tourists Japan.jpg (Photo: China Daily)

For the first half of 2014, the numbers tell a simple story: Chinese tourists are back. Back in Japan that is. Despite political squabbling over the Diayou/Senkaku islands and Chinese and Japanese defense buildups and posturing, Japan is again a hot destination for Chinese travelers.

Tensions aside, the Wall Street Journal reports at a recent survey indicates that 29% of Chinese rank Japan as their #1 destination. A China Daily report mentions that the number of tourists visiting Japan might return to the pre -2012 territorial-dispute level. Reasons given are eased visa restrictions and favorable exchange rates.

Going the other way, visitors from Japan to China in 2014 show a consistent, double-digit drop except for February and May, when the Chinese New Year and Japanese Golden Week are celebrated.

http://www.tourism.jp/en/statistics/

http://blogs.wsj.com/scene/2014/01/15/where-rich-chinese-tourists-are-traveling-in-2014/

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2014-03/03/content_17318237.htm