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Flying Over A War Zone – Who is Responsible?

Our modern world is made up of complex systems overseen by humans. And we all have to believe that somewhere, someone is making rational and sound decisions on things that affect our safety. So when we board an aircraft, we must assume that people have done their best to assure that the aircraft will arrive at its destination. We assume that the people who make the decisions about or lives know what they are doing, and know a lot more about their business than we will ever know. Regarding the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 this past week, perhaps the people who were making the decisions didn’t know what they were doing. Internet reports say that commercial flights fly over war zones all the time. And we must assume this is true, for our planet is not without its patchwork of conflict zones. Reports about WHY the Malaysian plane was flying over a hot war zone where two aircraft had been shot down contain some shifting of blame. Malaysia says it had been assured by IATA and the UN organization that the route was safe, but both organizations say they do not guarantee safety. It is also worth noting that Air France, British Air and Cathay Pacific have been flying a more southerly route that avoids eastern Ukraine. And media reports indicate that Malaysian crew had reservations about overflying a war zone. Mr. Tony Tyler, Director General of IATA says:

At this time, it is important we are very clear: safety is the top priority. No airline will risk the safety of their passengers, crew and aircraft for the sake of fuel savings. Airlines depend on governments and air traffic control authorities to advise which air space is available for flight, and they plan within those limits.

So the airlines would not try to save money on fuel by flying over a war zone. Right. And it is the government’s responsibility to advise airlines about their airspace. In short: we are not responsible, the airlines would not do such a thing. And yet a commercial plane flew over a known war zone and was shot down. A war zone where two aircraft had been downed by missiles. A war zone that was avoided by British Air, Air France and Cathay Pacific.

Let us say nobody is to blame–but somebody is surely responsible. Please log in and post your thoughts

Mr. Tyler’s statement: http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/statement-MH17-2014-07-18.aspx

Asian Low Cost Carriers (LCC) Are Industry Game Changers

640px-9V-OTD_Boeing_777-212_ER_(cn_28510_90)_Scoot._(7791633944).jpg LCC Scoot Air Boeing 777-212 ER (Wikimedia)

by David Parmer / Tokyo

The Asian airline industry’s big story for 2014 will surely be the continued expansion of the Low Cost Carrier (LCC) segment of its business. CAPA Center for Aviation estimates the LCC fleet to be 1,000 aircraft at present with a staggering 1500 orders in place. Airbus and Boeing are bullish on the market estimating the need for 7,000 wide body aircraft and 20,000 narrow body aircraft in the next 20 years. Now there are 47 LCCs in the region, with another 10 expected to be launched in 2014. Orders for new aircraft are huge. Aviation Week reports that Lion Air has outstanding orders for 500 Airbus 320s and Boeing 737-800s. Air Asia has orders for 337 aircraft and Viet Jet has orders for 90 A320s. In general, LCCs buy the same type of plane to keep costs down. And fleets tend to be younger due to the presence of newer aircraft.

The expansion of LCC in the region is impressive. Airbus estimates that LCCs sell 25% of total seats across Southeast Asia. CNNs estimate is close to double that. LCCs share of seats in North Asia is estimated to be just 9%. Japan Airlines reportedly has no plans to acquire a stake in an LCC until there is what it sees as an inevitable shakeout in the market. Rumors of an open skies policy within ASEAN to be discussed in 2015 fuel visions of a one billion plus future passenger market.

But events on the ground point to the old truism that not ALL clouds have silver linings. Already there seems to be an adjustment in the volatile LCC market. And the dreaded “O” word is being spoken: oversupply. Reports are surfacing of aircraft orders being deferred and consolidation of carriers taking place. In the short term this may be the case, but as for the future, it looks like the shape of the airline industry will be dominated by the LCCs. Cheap and fast will most likely be the wave of the future for this part of the world.

Reading Between the Lines on Kerry’s Trip to China

“Let me emphasize to you today the United States does not seek to contain China. We welcome the emergence of a peaceful, stable, prosperous China that contributes to the stability and the development of the region…”(Sec. John Kerry)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss the conclusion of the 5th Annual U.S.-China People-to-People Exchange and Sixth Strategic and Economic Dialogue between the two nations on July 10, 2014. (Photo: Wikimedia)

by David Parmer

Secretary of State John Kerry went to China last week with a high level delegation to attend a series of meetings with Chinese counterparts. Some reports suggested modest success in the meetings. The two countries discussed climate change, nuclear non-proliferation and North Korea and Iran’s nuclear programs as well as cooperation on fighting terrorism. Areas of difference remain centered on alleged cyber attacks on U.S. officials and ongoing territorial issues. Kerry went out of his way to stress that the U.S. does not seek to contain China, but rather welcomes China’s emergence, and the continuation of good relations that began with a handshake 35 years ago.

In his remarks at the opening of the Sixth Round of the U.S.- China Strategic and Economic dialogue, Secretary also said:

I am particularly pleased to be here with my co-chair, the Secretary of the Treasury, Jack Lew; with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen; with our Secretary of Commerce, Penny Pritzker; with the Secretary of Energy, Ernie Moniz; with our Trade Representative, Mike Froman. As I look down the line with many other members of government, the top advisors (inaudible) my deputy, (inaudible) Deputy Secretary of State William Burns — in fact, as I looked at the (inaudible) of people from the American delegation here, it is obvious to me that not a lot is getting done back in Washington today. It is being done here.

By the time Kerry and his delegation left, meetings had been held, topics discussed, and agreements made. Reports mentioned no big breakthroughs. But what was Kerry’s message? What did the composition of the Kerry delegation ( containing some of the administration’s top appointees) say to the Chinese without words? It said we value you, we respect you, we are sending some of our highest officials to the Middle Kingdom. Our relationship is not just important, it is vital. The U.S. and the Obama administration showed respect to China. They were not speaking Mandarin, but they were speaking the language of the Chinese.

Comments? Log in and let us know what you think.

North Korea’s Military – Laughable or Lethal?

N.Korea Uniforms.jpg (Photo: Army Recognition.com)

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Media reports on the DPRK military are often like the story of the blind men and the elephant. In the story each man grasps a different part of the beast and gives a different and wildly-divergent impression. The 2013 report by the U.S. Defense Department to Congress on North Korea gives an overall view that puts piecemeal reports by the press in a more understandable context.

The North Korean threat to the region is real, and it is an instrument of national policy. The raison d’être for DPRK forces are seen to be twofold; to keep the regime in power and to prevent any significant attack from the ROK, U.S. Japan or an expeditionary force made up of these three countries. At the same time, this capability enables the country to pursue a bellicose, contrarian and concession-extracting foreign policy.

North Korea fields a large, forward-deployed military that retains the capability to inflict serious damage on the ROK, despite significant resource shortfalls and aging hardware. (U.S. Dept. of Defense)

North Korean technology in conventional arms is far behind current world standards but effective. Aircraft date from the 1990s or earlier. While the DPRK has one of the world’s biggest submarine fleets, it along with the Navy (mostly a costal force) are seen as outdated technologically. Vintage Russian and Chinese designs are a big part of the defense mix. The DPRK has the 4th largest military in the world, with 70 submarines,13,000 artillery pieces and substantial armored and infantry units as well as its vintage air force. On paper this looks impressive, but the Pentagon cites serious shortcomings in the military machine of Kim Jong-un. Specifically:

Logistic shortages
Aging equipment
Lack of training

Despite these shortcomings, the threat from the north is credible. It starts with its artillery and rocket forces. Estimates suggest an artillery inventory of 13,000 pieces, many in hardened sites and targeting the territory south of the DMZ and Seoul itself. A second element in the threat is North Korean special forces (SOF). Other sources suggest that as many as 200,000 SOF personnel are on duty. These troops are seen as well equipped, highly motivated professionals capable of being inserted by land sea or air into the ROK to cause havoc and strike high-value targets such as air fields or command centers. Next comes the DPRK’s cyber warfare capability. In a cash-strapped national economy, cyber warfare can deliver a big return on investment. The Pentagon’s report suggests cyber attacks have already been launched on the south, with incidents of Denial of Service (DOS) attacks being attributed to the DPRK. And finally, the tip of Kim Jong-un’s spear is his rocket forces: short and long range missiles, less than sophisticated by world standards, but capable of getting the job done-i.e. threatening both his regional neighbors in China, ROK and Japan, but also the west coast of the United States. It seems that is only a matter of time before North Korea can perfect the launch and re-entry of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a high yield nuclear warhead.

Seen from the Pentagon’s report, the military machine of the DPRK is a well-planned and well thought out instrument of national policy using strategy and limited resources to confront better equipped, better supplied and better trained potential adversaries. And so far this strategy seems to be working just fine.

U.S. Department of Defense Report on North Korea 2013

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/North_Korea_Military_Power_Report_2013-2014.pdf

State of the World: Mid-Year Report

2014 is already half over. A series of international crises have come and gone and come. Ukraine which started the year off at center stage seems to have settled itself for the time being. Long standing ethnic differences have receded, but could flare up at any time. Russia seems to have lost interest in cold-war-ear-type brinksmanship in Ukraine. But out of nowhere Islamic militants calling themselves ISIS have come on center stage, declaring a state or Caliphate in the Syria, Iraq region. And the Sunni-Shia rivalry that was on the back burner has now, again, come to full boil. The South China Sea is quiet, although all concerned parties seem to be jockeying for position and preparing for the next round. So this week’s question is: What area of the globe do you think the next crisis will take place in? What region will capture world attention for the second half of 2014. Please log in and post your comments below.

Asian Waters—The Mighty Mekong in Crisis

Mekong Floating Market Viet Nam (Wikimedia)

by David Parmer

There is an old saying, “You can’t step in the same river twice.” Rivers by their nature flow and can be seen as manifestations of change. The Chinese concept of the nature of the universe, the Tao, was probably derived from the observation of flowing water. So a river changing is nothing surprising. Sadly, it seems as though, against all hope, Asia’s mighty Mekong River may be on the verge of irreversible change that will negatively impact millions of people locally, and countless people globally.

The Mekong River, Asia’s 12th longest waterway makes its way from the Tibetan plateau through China’s tropical Yunan province and south into Burma where it forms the Burma-Laos border, onward south where it again forms a border, this time the Laos- Thailand border. It enters Cambodia and exits into Vietnam’s Mekong delta and finally empties into the South China Sea. It is 4300 km or 2600 miles long.

The river, which is often considered to be of two main sections: upper Mekong and lower Mekong, is rich in biodiversity. It is said to be second only to the Amazon in this regard, and is home to more than 1200 species of fishes and one species of fresh water dolphin as well as the giant catfish which can be 3m long and weigh up to 300kg. Seasonal variations in flow and rapids make navigation along the Mekong difficult, but a lively trade takes place along its length, and up to 2.5 million tons of fish are harvested from its waters each year.

In 1995 four of the six river stakeholders, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam set up the Mekong River Commission to foster river development and promote the livelihood of people along the river. China and Burma did not join the group, but are considered “dialogue partners.”

Left alone, or managed well, the river could sustain life for generations to come. Unfortunately, such does not seem to be the course of future events. The river is now under threat from a number of sources. World Wildlife Funds cites climate change, illegal wildlife trade, pollution, climate change and hydropower to be the main challenges. Of these, damming for electric power is the most potentially devastating because of its effects on local water levels and fish habitat.

Dams (Proposed and Existing) on the Lower Mekong

Dams have already affected the various river ecosystems, but the most troubling are the proposed dams in Laos, which aims to become “the battery of Southeast Asia” by selling electric power to its neighbors. Piecemeal and uncoordinated development along the length of this great waterway looks to be the course of future events, and will clearly not be in the long term interest of the people who make their living from the mighty Mekong.

International Rivers, Lower Mekong Factsheet: http://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/the-lower-mekong-dams-factsheet-text-7908

WWF, Greater Mekong: https://www.worldwildlife.org/places/greater-mekong

Yasukuni Shrine Summer 2014

Yasukuni Shrine, Kudan Tokyo (Wikimedia)

Summer 2014 has come to Tokyo. The rainy season will finish in a week or so and the infamous Kanto summer heat will be here until the very end of September. Students will have a summer vacation, and office workers will be able to spend a few days with their families at the beach or in the mountains. And in August the Obon holiday will be observed. Obon is a time when Japanese people honor their ancestors, visit cemeteries and clean the gravesites. August 15th marks the end of WWII, and is a time when Japanese lawmakers visit the shrine to honor the war dead. Some say that the Japanese see Yasukuni Shrine the same way as Americans see Arlington national cemetery. But Japan’s neighbors, and wartime foes see it as a glorification of militarism, and a continuing symptom of Japan’s inability to come to terms with its imperial past. Tensions in East Asia are certainly at an all-time postwar high, and it is unlikely that the Japanese government members will deviate from their customary visit to the shrine, or that Japan’s neighbors will accept the shrine visits as normal and proper. So, what will we see in the summer of 2014? It looks like tensions will certainly continue to rise, and that Yasukuni will remain squarely in focus this summer.

China Housing Market-So Far, the 2014 Numbers Are Down

(Photo: China Daily Mail)

by David Parmer

Before 1987, terms like “supply and demand” and “buyer’s market” were probably unknown in China except to a few specialists. In 2014, the reality of these concepts, if not the theory, is common knowledge. China’s housing market is a good case in point. After a go-go market that looked like it would extend out to the horizon, reality has settled in it seems. Oversupply has arrived in China’s housing market, with estimates of around 50,000+ unsold units in China’s first-tier eastern cities. The market is characterized as having big inventories combined with sluggish sales.

The currency trading website Forex Minute reported on June 13, 2014 that sales are down 11% from a year ago and construction of new properties are down 19% for the January-May period as compared to the previous year. Sellers are taking counter-measures by offering various incentives to buyers, and in some cases price cuts. Evergrand Real Estate has cut prices by 15% according to Reuters and sales are trending upward. Meanwhile,the present oversupply is causing ripple effects throughout the greater Chinese economy. Industries like iron and steel making, cement manufacturing, tile making and furniture wholesaling are feeling the pinch. Workers’ wages in all of the above industries are also negatively impacted by the slowdown. Property investment accounts for a hefty 12% of China’s GDP. The government’s target of 7.5% growth for the current fiscal year could be in doubt.

Some analysts predict deep price cutting in the second half of the year that could result in sales targets for 2014 being met. Also banks seem reluctant to underwrite the housing market, and tight lending seems to be the order of the day. The result could be an adjustment in oversupply, which, combined with price cutting, could see the market beginning to stabilize by early 2015.

http://www.forexminute.com/economic-indicators/chinas-home-sales-decline-11-percent-due-to-weak-demand-35044

Iraq IS a hard place…

Things seemed to be going so well, and then? They weren’t. This last week has seen what looks like a full-fledged civil war beginning in Iraq. What happened? The U.S. left, elections were held and things moved along. Some sort of balance seemed to be holding among Sunnis, Shia and Kurds. And then it wasn’t. Alliances were made. Reports have former Bath party members joining with Sunnis. Militants and foreign fighters, too radical even for Al Qaeda, called ISIS, marched on Baghdad. The government of prime minister Nouri al-Malaki seems powerless to stop them. The U.S. said it won’t intervene, but that it will…send advisors and maybe… What is going on? From the “Arab Spring” to this? What is going on? Log in and let us know your opinion.

Person of Interest: Elon Musk

319px-Charles_Bolden_congratulates_SpaceX_CEO_and_Chief_Designer_Elon_Musk_in_front_of_the_historic_Dragon_capsule.jpg

NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, left, congratulates SpaceX CEO and Chief Designer Elon Musk in front of the historic Dragon capsule that returned to Earth on May 31 following the first successful mission by a private company to carry supplies to the International Space Station on June 13, 2012 at the SpaceX facility in McGregor, Texas. (Photo: Wikimedia)

by David Parmer

If he did not exist…we would have to invent him.

If we were going to write a comic book, what the Japanese call “manga” and hipsters in Seattle call a “graphic novel,” we would need a hero. How about inventing an enigmatic hero, bigger than life who experiences a lonely childhood tinkering with computers on the southernmost part of the planet, then in his teens migrates to one of the most northern countries and begins university studies. After that he gains admission to a prestigious university in that country’s southern neighbor where he studies physics and economics at one of the nation’s top B-schools. He then starts a Ph.D. program at another elite school, but drops out after two days, whereupon he begins his stellar rise, i.e., a rise to the stars. First he hacks the financial system, makes it ridiculously easy to send money around the globe. From this he makes a cool $1.5 billion, then he goes on to co-found an electric car company named after the patron saint of geeks everywhere. He gets electric cars on the road, and along the way releases his patents so that others-without having to license his technology-can also build electric cars. He does this out of altruism, but also to get the industry (of which he is positioned squarely at the forefront) going. Sounds like a pretty good story? Shall we stop there, no, let’s keep going. He has an “interest” in space. He wants to see humans get off the planet, he is worried about our survival as a species. (What if a humongous asteroid hits the Earth? What if some virus threatens to wipe us all out?) So he forms a company, calls it Space X, and launches the first commercial satellite from a liquid fueled vehicle, and then gets a contract to send cargo to the planet’s orbiting space lab. He also plans to modify the cargo vehicle to carry a human crew into the far reaches of space. Well, OK, first to Mars– but a couple of decades before the nation’s space agency plans to do so. That should be enough for a good story, but wait, let’s add more: how about he invests in solar technology? His company becomes the largest provider of solar power systems and he plans a factory to be the biggest producer of solar panels on Earth. Finally, how about we add two wives and five children? OK, done. So what should we call the hero of our manga/graphic novel? Hmmmm. How about Elon Musk?

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/currency/2014/06/elon-musk-shares-tesla-patents.html

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27758898

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/184640-spacex-says-it-will-put-humans-on-mars-by-2026-almost-10-years-ahead-of-nasa