Hopes For A New Year

(Photo: NASA, GOV.)

by David Parmer

The old year is about to end, and in less than a week we will ring in the new. 2013 has been event-filled with tensions reaching new levels worldwide. From the Arab Spring to the ongoing events in Egypt and Thailand we have seen peoples choosing new ways to govern themselves, sometimes throwing out or overthrowing the old, and replacing it with a more workable new. The tensions in the western Pacific have steadily been on the rise as well, with the ever-present North Korean nuclear issue and the disputes over territorial waters from north to south. North-South migration has been an issue worldwide, with peoples seeking better lives for themselves and their families in countries often ill-prepared to receive them.

With this as a backdrop we can look to more positive and favorable happenings. The most promising of these are the various space programs around the world that advance our scientific knowledge and point us in the right direction-outward to the stars. Notable are China’s lunar mission and India’s Mars mission.

For certain, 2014 will be no less event-filled than its predecessor, 2013. And we can always hope for the very best: peace and prosperity, health and happiness for all humanity.

We at RG21 join in wishing you all the best for the coming New Year.

More Thoughts On The ADIZ

RG21 Senior Research Fellow, Bill Lee has some additional thoughts on China’s Air Defense Identification Zone. Since his musings are generally insightful, we have decided to post them here. For comments by the full RG21 team on China’s ADIZ, please check out the 23 November 2013 post on this blog, which even includes an intriguing analysis based on Sun Tzu. (http://research-group21.com/admin/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&id=104&blog_id=3)

by Bill Lee

今朝の新聞に米国副大統領の日本の訪問は大きく取り上がったけれども私の目を引いたのは金正恩の叔父で張成沢は失脚したようだという記事でした。えええ！と言う感じで私は本当にびっくりした。

確かに日中、日韓関係はそれぞれまずくなってきている。チェスゲームみたいに各国は自分の駒を展開しているところです。中国は突然に防空識別圏を設定してびっくりしましたけれども実はびっくりすることではないと思う。日本では政府やメディアや市民など皆は尖閣・釣魚島を奪うという中国の狙いだと受けている。しかし私には中国の基本的な目的は海へ万里の長城のような第一列島線までの周辺線を設定しようとしている。勿論日本はいまのままで中国のADIZを認めないが中国は鋭い外交的な戦術を工夫したんです。それは中国は自分のADIZに入る飛行機が必ず事前に報告しなくてはならないというデマンドです。米国や日本のADIZはデマンドではなくて

リクエストになっています。交渉で中国側は“譲歩“でデマンドからリクエストにすれば、米国や日本のADIZに同じようになるわけ。そうすると中国のADIZの正当性の主張は強くなってほかの国から暗黙の認知・了解を得る。

心配しているのは中国の党・政府の中央指導者が離れた海岸にある軍事基地の指揮官を完全に支配しているかどうか。無謀なパイロットは「防御的な緊急措置」で事故を起こす可能性がある。一回、二回事件があっても戦争にならないと思うけれども貿易や観光客数が減るとか経済的な損害が出る。こういう緊張の中で中国側は外務省のイライラした発言とかに頼っては行けない。チャイナウォッチャーは中国の外務省は党・軍事と比べれば比較的に力が弱いとよく知られている。今のところ、大事なことは中央からの声ですね。面白いことは今の二人の世界的リーダー両氏が、共に今年の三月に現在のポジションになっていたことです。それはフランシスコ法王と習近平。組織的に二人の状況は似ている。フランシスコ法王のバチカンは中国の共産党と共通点があると指摘されている。両組織はとても強力で不透明に機能している。なのにこのごろフランシスコ法王は結構演説やインタビューや発言により肯定的なイメージを作っています。一方で今週イギリスのガーディアンという新聞は「習近平はまだ謎」の記事を載せました。米国の政府は中国の意図は何だろうかという疑問を持っています。その質問を一番適切に答えるのは、やはり習近平であるべきでしょう。習近平法王はもっと国際社会に中国の意図や行動を理解でいるように説明すれば緊張感は大分減ると思います。

The Bear and The Dragon: Russia China Relationship 2013

2013 Was a good year for Chinese Russian relations with cooperation in the areas of trade, energy, military ties and people-to-people exchanges. Moreover, the presidents of both countries have a cordial personal and professional relationship. Things look good for two countries with a long history of involvement with each other that range from fraternal to frosty. So what does the future hold? Look into your crystal ball and tell us what you think will happen in 2014 and beyond as these two giants again focus on better relations.

2013-Putin Has A Banner Year

Vladimir_Putin_April_2013_interview_to_the_German_ARD-003.jpg (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

by David Parmer

Russian President Vladimir has had a very good year indeed. It seems like he has moved from success to success. Putin’s American counterpart, Barack Obama’s, year seems to have been just the opposite, with reporters at his final press conference of 2013 asking him if this was the worst year of his presidency. Putin had his own end-of-year press conference, but for him, this year was a record of personal and national achievement.

In September, as the clock ticked down on an attack on Syria, Russia not only urged the U.S not to attack, but also put forth a bold plan to get international inspectors on the ground in Syria to remove its chemical weapons. The plan was accepted and the inspectors began their work. Score one for Putin and world peace.

Putin’s next bold move was to grant political asylum to Edward Snowden, former NSA contractor and leaker of classified information. Putin described Snowden as “noble” but said he had never met Snowden. In his press conference Putin noted that he was not going to justify U.S. surveillance, but that it was conducted for the purpose of combating terrorism.

Putin’s final big success of the year was to get Ukraine to side with Russia instead of the European Union. Russia provided a massive loan and substantially cut the price of gas. Putin described Russia’s interest in Ukraine as fraternal. While Russia did not overtly oppose Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU, it clearly looked out for its own economic interests.

And finally, neighbors Russia and China had a year of improving relations, with meetings taking place between President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Putin said he had a good working and personal relationship with Xi. Improved military ties with China were also promoted in 2013.

What will happen in 2014 for Putin and Russia is anybody’s guess, but the year begins with the Sochi winter Olympics, and the Olympics generally gives a major boost to any country’s national prestige. So maybe once again Vladimir Putin will be on the fast track to continued success.

Kim Jong Un Eliminates Possible Rival

This week Kim Jong Un moved quickly to eliminate any threat to his power by dismissing, arresting and executing his uncle Jang Song Thaek. Jang was thought to favor a more progressive economic model similar to the Chinese one. He was accused of all sorts of crimes including treason and womanizing. The North Korean press vilified him, and his hasty execution is thought to be a stern warning to like-minded persons within the DPRK leadership. Sources say the purging of Jang will be followed by similar purges of his followers. So, the question once again is: What is going on in Pyongyang? How will this effect the whole equation of North Korean politics? How will this affect North Korea’s approach to key issues like Six Party nuclear talks and relations with it neighbors to the south. Post your comments below.

Japan Media Reports on DPRK #2 Downfall

(Photo: Yonghap)

On December 13, the Japan media reported on the removal and execution of Kim Jong Un’s uncle, Jang Song Thaek, former Vice chairman of the National Defense Commission and member of the Worker’s Party Political Bureau. The English language press for the most part ran the same headline and lede copy.

The Asahi Shinbun went with the headline:

“North Korea executes leader’s uncle as a traitor”

“North Korea said December 13 that it had executed Kim Jong Un’s uncle as a traitor for trying to seize supreme power, a stunning end for the leader’s former mentor, long considered the country’s No.2.”

The Japan Times’ headline read the same:

“North Korea executes leader’s uncle as a traitor”

“North Korea announced Friday it had executed Kim Jong Un’s uncle as a traitor for trying to seize supreme power, a stunning end for the leader’s former mentor, who was long considered the country’s No.2 official.”

The Japan News (Yomiuri) followed suit with its headline and lede:

“North Korea executes leader’s uncle as a traitor”

“North Korea said Friday that it had executed Kim Jong Un’s uncle, calling the leader’s former mentor a traitor who tried to seize power and overthrow the state.”

In an analysis piece, the Asahi used the headline:

Jiang’s execution solidifies Kim’s dictatorship

“North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sent an unmistakable message to anyone daring to challenge his authority with the purging and speedy execution of his uncle, considered his primary guardian and the nation’s second most powerful man.”

Are Educational Rankings Useful?

This week saw the publications of the results for the 2012 PISA rankings for 15-year-old high school students worldwide. Testing was held in math, science and reading. The top seven spots were taken by Asian countries/economies. This week’s question is: Are such tests really worthwhile? Are they a valid test of ability and creativity? Is there such a thing as too much testing? Post your thoughts below.

Asians Top Learners on PISA Rankings

Graphic: OECD-PISA

The results for the 2012 Program For International Student Assessment (PISA) testing were issued in early December 2013, and the top seven places are held by Asian countries/economies.

The PISA program is sponsored by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development headquartered in Paris. PISA conducts a:

“Triennial international survey which aims to evaluate education systems worldwide by testing the skills and knowledge of 15-year-old students.” (OECD-PISA Website)

The tests in Reading, Mathematics and Science are unique in that they are:

Not linked to any school curriculum
Test knowledge for use in real-life situations
Try to assess students’ ability to participate in society

“Rather than examine mastery of specific school curricula, PISA looks at students’ abilities to apply knowledge and skills in key subject areas and to analyse, reason and communicate effectively as they examine, interpret and solve problems.” (OECD-PISA Website)

The top seven countries/economies in 2012 were Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan Korea, Macau and Japan.

China’s Ministry of Education declined to participate in 2012, but is on board for testing 2015.

Of interest is the fact that many believe that Asian education is strictly by rote, and hence does not create creative thinkers. Yet the test criteria does not call for the simple repetition of learned material, but requires the application of learned material in a real-world type situation.

The tests, which began in 2000, and are held every three years, were taken in 2012 by more than 500,000 students in 70 countries and economies worldwide.

PISA website: http://www.oecd.org/pisa/

China’s ADIZ: Can Sun Tzu Tell Us Anything?

by David Parmer

On November 23, 2013, The People’s Republic of China announced an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea. Aircraft flying into this zone are required to:

Identify themselves
Report their flight plans
Inform ground control of their exact location

Japan, and its U.S. ally have seen this as an escalation of tensions, and have refused to comply. Both the U.S and Japan have sent military aircraft into the newly-created ADIZ without complying with any of the above-mentioned requirements. Moreover, the area encompassed by the ADIZ covers the territory under dispute between Japan and China, know as the Diaoyu or Senkaku Islands.

The question is why China is declaring this ADIZ at this time, and what advantage does she hopes to gain by doing so? To look for an answer we can turn to China’s pre-eminent strategist, Sun Tzu, ( 544-496 BC) a general during the Spring and Autumn period, and author of the world-famous Art of War. Perhaps China’s strategy can be interpreted by having a look at General Sun’s work.

Many observers see The Art of War as an expression of Chinese Taoist thought, a semi-mystical philosophical system based on the observation of nature and natural phenomena expressing themselves in the polar opposites of Yin and Yang.

In General Sun’s treatise there is a section on Emptiness and Fullness, which could be considered a prime example of Taoist thought.

“Therefore, good warriors cause others to come to them, and do not go to others.”

We have seen Japan and the U.S. sending planes into the ADIZ, as on cue, and almost as if they had no choice. General Sun might say they had been even compelled to do so.

“So assess them to find out their plans, both the successful ones and the failures. Incite them to action in order to find out the patterns of their movement and rest.”

Again, China has incited Japan and the U.S. to action by establishing the ADIZ. The U.S. has made it pivot to Asia. The question is how far it will go in supporting its Japanese ally? The answer is: it will immediately fly bombers into the ADIZ to show defiance and underscore its commitment to Japan. So China now has a clear picture. The U.S. and Japan have been incited to action.

“Test them to find out where they are sufficient and where they are lacking.”

The ADIZ response by the U.S. and Japan gives China a clear picture of the patterns, extent and methods of its response to future incidents should tensions escalate even further.

Tensions in the South China Sea seem to rise almost daily. The parties involved all seem to believe that they are acting strategically and in their national self interest. But what will happen if an “unforeseen incident” happens? If planes are lost or ships fire on one another where will things go from there? Some may say it will never happen, but the probability and possibility seem only to increase.

Quotations from: Sun Tzu, The Art of War, Translated by Thomas Cleary

HISTORIC AGREEMENT IN GENEVA

November 24, 2013

An historic agreement concerning Iran’s nuclear program has been reached between the world powers (P5+1=Permanent members of the UN Security Council + Germany) and Iran. Negotiators working overtime in Geneva came to a deal where Iran would halt certain nuclear development and permit inspection in exchange for the partial lifting of sanctions. The time frame is six months. It is hoped that a broader agreement can be reached during that time. As expected, both Israel and Saudi Arabia have voiced strong opposition to the agreement. The question is what long-term effects will come of this agreement? Will Iran again join the wider community of nations? Will its economy significantly improve? Is this deal a blessing, or something to worry about?Please give us your thougths on this matter.