Si Shen-She’s Got Game

(Photo: gamelook)

by David Parmer

Si Shen’s mobile social gaming company, Papaya, has 80 million users. That’s not too bad. Not too bad for a company that only got started in 2008. Not too bad for a woman who knew from the beginning that she wanted to run her own company in China. Shen grew up in Beijing and attended its prestigious Tshinghua University, where she majored in computer science. She then went on to Stanford University where she earned two Master’s degrees; one in computer management and one in engineering.

From Stanford she moved to Google where she worked for five years, eventually becoming Product Manager and returning to China with Google. In 2008 along with a college friend, Qian Wenjie, she founded Papaya, a social mobile gaming company. Papaya’s first game was Papaya Farm and was hugely successful. It was a big hit on Apple’s App Store. In 2009, just as it was in the process of raising capital, Papaya suffered a major setback: Apple withdrew the game from the App Store. Shen could get not explanation for this move, so she went to Apple headquarters in Cupertino, California to seek an explanation. After being stonewalled, she finally found out what the problem was: her game was able to be used cross platform, i.e. on both Apple devices and Android devices, and this did not suit Apple. Shen returned to China, and decided to move to Android. Although she lost the funding, the move to Android was key to the company’s growth and expansion. (Of note: Apple later returned, and now Papaya’s games are on both platforms.)

In 2011 the company shifted its focus from developing games to supporting third party developers enabling them to reach millions of users worldwide. Still, Papaya has not abandoned the users. On its website the company states: “Android users love Papaya because they can play multiple games and get a complete social gaming experience all in one easy to download and use app.”

In interviews and presentations Shen repeats here simple rule for prevailing in a competitive and ever-changing industry: Never give up.

Compiled from web sources

Papaya website (English/Chinese) http://papayamobile.com/about

Hopes For A New Year

(Photo: NASA, GOV.)

by David Parmer

The old year is about to end, and in less than a week we will ring in the new. 2013 has been event-filled with tensions reaching new levels worldwide. From the Arab Spring to the ongoing events in Egypt and Thailand we have seen peoples choosing new ways to govern themselves, sometimes throwing out or overthrowing the old, and replacing it with a more workable new. The tensions in the western Pacific have steadily been on the rise as well, with the ever-present North Korean nuclear issue and the disputes over territorial waters from north to south. North-South migration has been an issue worldwide, with peoples seeking better lives for themselves and their families in countries often ill-prepared to receive them.

With this as a backdrop we can look to more positive and favorable happenings. The most promising of these are the various space programs around the world that advance our scientific knowledge and point us in the right direction-outward to the stars. Notable are China’s lunar mission and India’s Mars mission.

For certain, 2014 will be no less event-filled than its predecessor, 2013. And we can always hope for the very best: peace and prosperity, health and happiness for all humanity.

We at RG21 join in wishing you all the best for the coming New Year.

2013-Putin Has A Banner Year

Vladimir_Putin_April_2013_interview_to_the_German_ARD-003.jpg (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

by David Parmer

Russian President Vladimir has had a very good year indeed. It seems like he has moved from success to success. Putin’s American counterpart, Barack Obama’s, year seems to have been just the opposite, with reporters at his final press conference of 2013 asking him if this was the worst year of his presidency. Putin had his own end-of-year press conference, but for him, this year was a record of personal and national achievement.

In September, as the clock ticked down on an attack on Syria, Russia not only urged the U.S not to attack, but also put forth a bold plan to get international inspectors on the ground in Syria to remove its chemical weapons. The plan was accepted and the inspectors began their work. Score one for Putin and world peace.

Putin’s next bold move was to grant political asylum to Edward Snowden, former NSA contractor and leaker of classified information. Putin described Snowden as “noble” but said he had never met Snowden. In his press conference Putin noted that he was not going to justify U.S. surveillance, but that it was conducted for the purpose of combating terrorism.

Putin’s final big success of the year was to get Ukraine to side with Russia instead of the European Union. Russia provided a massive loan and substantially cut the price of gas. Putin described Russia’s interest in Ukraine as fraternal. While Russia did not overtly oppose Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU, it clearly looked out for its own economic interests.

And finally, neighbors Russia and China had a year of improving relations, with meetings taking place between President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Putin said he had a good working and personal relationship with Xi. Improved military ties with China were also promoted in 2013.

What will happen in 2014 for Putin and Russia is anybody’s guess, but the year begins with the Sochi winter Olympics, and the Olympics generally gives a major boost to any country’s national prestige. So maybe once again Vladimir Putin will be on the fast track to continued success.

Japan Media Reports on DPRK #2 Downfall

(Photo: Yonghap)

On December 13, the Japan media reported on the removal and execution of Kim Jong Un’s uncle, Jang Song Thaek, former Vice chairman of the National Defense Commission and member of the Worker’s Party Political Bureau. The English language press for the most part ran the same headline and lede copy.

The Asahi Shinbun went with the headline:

“North Korea executes leader’s uncle as a traitor”

“North Korea said December 13 that it had executed Kim Jong Un’s uncle as a traitor for trying to seize supreme power, a stunning end for the leader’s former mentor, long considered the country’s No.2.”

The Japan Times’ headline read the same:

“North Korea executes leader’s uncle as a traitor”

“North Korea announced Friday it had executed Kim Jong Un’s uncle as a traitor for trying to seize supreme power, a stunning end for the leader’s former mentor, who was long considered the country’s No.2 official.”

The Japan News (Yomiuri) followed suit with its headline and lede:

“North Korea executes leader’s uncle as a traitor”

“North Korea said Friday that it had executed Kim Jong Un’s uncle, calling the leader’s former mentor a traitor who tried to seize power and overthrow the state.”

In an analysis piece, the Asahi used the headline:

Jiang’s execution solidifies Kim’s dictatorship

“North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sent an unmistakable message to anyone daring to challenge his authority with the purging and speedy execution of his uncle, considered his primary guardian and the nation’s second most powerful man.”

Asians Top Learners on PISA Rankings

Graphic: OECD-PISA

The results for the 2012 Program For International Student Assessment (PISA) testing were issued in early December 2013, and the top seven places are held by Asian countries/economies.

The PISA program is sponsored by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development headquartered in Paris. PISA conducts a:

“Triennial international survey which aims to evaluate education systems worldwide by testing the skills and knowledge of 15-year-old students.” (OECD-PISA Website)

The tests in Reading, Mathematics and Science are unique in that they are:

Not linked to any school curriculum
Test knowledge for use in real-life situations
Try to assess students’ ability to participate in society

“Rather than examine mastery of specific school curricula, PISA looks at students’ abilities to apply knowledge and skills in key subject areas and to analyse, reason and communicate effectively as they examine, interpret and solve problems.” (OECD-PISA Website)

The top seven countries/economies in 2012 were Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan Korea, Macau and Japan.

China’s Ministry of Education declined to participate in 2012, but is on board for testing 2015.

Of interest is the fact that many believe that Asian education is strictly by rote, and hence does not create creative thinkers. Yet the test criteria does not call for the simple repetition of learned material, but requires the application of learned material in a real-world type situation.

The tests, which began in 2000, and are held every three years, were taken in 2012 by more than 500,000 students in 70 countries and economies worldwide.

PISA website: http://www.oecd.org/pisa/

China’s ADIZ: Can Sun Tzu Tell Us Anything?

by David Parmer

On November 23, 2013, The People’s Republic of China announced an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea. Aircraft flying into this zone are required to:

Identify themselves
Report their flight plans
Inform ground control of their exact location

Japan, and its U.S. ally have seen this as an escalation of tensions, and have refused to comply. Both the U.S and Japan have sent military aircraft into the newly-created ADIZ without complying with any of the above-mentioned requirements. Moreover, the area encompassed by the ADIZ covers the territory under dispute between Japan and China, know as the Diaoyu or Senkaku Islands.

The question is why China is declaring this ADIZ at this time, and what advantage does she hopes to gain by doing so? To look for an answer we can turn to China’s pre-eminent strategist, Sun Tzu, ( 544-496 BC) a general during the Spring and Autumn period, and author of the world-famous Art of War. Perhaps China’s strategy can be interpreted by having a look at General Sun’s work.

Many observers see The Art of War as an expression of Chinese Taoist thought, a semi-mystical philosophical system based on the observation of nature and natural phenomena expressing themselves in the polar opposites of Yin and Yang.

In General Sun’s treatise there is a section on Emptiness and Fullness, which could be considered a prime example of Taoist thought.

“Therefore, good warriors cause others to come to them, and do not go to others.”

We have seen Japan and the U.S. sending planes into the ADIZ, as on cue, and almost as if they had no choice. General Sun might say they had been even compelled to do so.

“So assess them to find out their plans, both the successful ones and the failures. Incite them to action in order to find out the patterns of their movement and rest.”

Again, China has incited Japan and the U.S. to action by establishing the ADIZ. The U.S. has made it pivot to Asia. The question is how far it will go in supporting its Japanese ally? The answer is: it will immediately fly bombers into the ADIZ to show defiance and underscore its commitment to Japan. So China now has a clear picture. The U.S. and Japan have been incited to action.

“Test them to find out where they are sufficient and where they are lacking.”

The ADIZ response by the U.S. and Japan gives China a clear picture of the patterns, extent and methods of its response to future incidents should tensions escalate even further.

Tensions in the South China Sea seem to rise almost daily. The parties involved all seem to believe that they are acting strategically and in their national self interest. But what will happen if an “unforeseen incident” happens? If planes are lost or ships fire on one another where will things go from there? Some may say it will never happen, but the probability and possibility seem only to increase.

Quotations from: Sun Tzu, The Art of War, Translated by Thomas Cleary

China-Iran: No Permanent Alliances, Only Permanent Interests

Xi meets Larijani.jpg President XiJinping and Iranian Speaker Ali Larijani (Photo: FMPRC)

by David Parmer

These days, China- Iran relations center on two key points: oil and trade. China is Iran’s biggest customer for crude oil. Iran has been hard hit with U.S. sanctions that have frozen assets and crippled its oil industry. Sanctions are aimed at Iran’s nuclear program, which Iran claims is designed for peaceful energy production, while countries around the world, led by the U.S. see it as a cover for the development of nuclear weapons.

On November 20, 2013, China’s president, XiJinping urged his Iranian counterpart to “seize the opportunity” to improve relations with other world powers at the third round of the current Geneva meetings.

In October, both China and South Korea cut imports of Iranian crude; China to stay within agreed U.S. guidelines. The Financial Times reported on November 22, 2013 that in October 2013 there was a 45% decline in Iranian crude exports, and a resulting cutback in production. Crude oil accounts for 80% of Iran’s exports and half of the Iranian government’s income.

Clearly the pressure is on Iran to come and make some concessions at the Geneva meetings in exchange for easing of sanctions and partial un-freezing of its international assets.
The Obama administration is gambling that it can deal with the less-hardline regime of President Hassan Rowhani. Opposition to any deal comes from Israel and Saudi Arabia. In a world economy experiencing a certain slowdown, a deal to allow Iran greater oil exports could cause a glut in the market and drive down prices worldwide.

As for non-oil trade, Iranian Customs reported $4.06billion worth of exports to China, while Iran imported $5.7billion from China in the first eight months of 2013. One area of China-Iran friction centers around complaints that cheap Chinese goods have flooded the Iranian market seriously damaging smaller Iranian concerns. While China-related infrastructure projects already exist, there is sentiment for more of that type of activity as opposed to the inflow of cheap goods. Moreover, since China pays for Iranian petroleum in Yuan (RMB), Iran’s payments are locked in China’s banks. Estimates of these funds range from $20-47 billion. Reports quoted Iran’s Tasnim News as saying that a deal had been struck between China and Iran during meetings in October 2013 with Speaker Ali Larijani and Chinese leaders in Beijing to fund development projects in Iran using some $22billion of the above-mentioned funds.

(This report was compiled from various Web sources)

New Silk Road Again Links Asia-Europe

Train Uzbek.jpg

(Photo: ADB)

by David Parmer

The Silk Road-just the name brings to mind images of camel caravans crossing vast empty spaces bringing trade goods from one civilization to another. The total distance of the ancient trade routes connecting East, South and Western Asia with the Mediterranean world and North Africa is estimated to be about 8,000 km, or about 5,000 miles. From the second century BC, goods crossed those vast distances and connected civilizations. Then, in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries with the rise of global navigation and the opening of sea lanes, these ancient trade routes fell into decline and disuse.

Things stayed pretty much the same with little but historical interest until around the turn of this century, when things again began to heat up. Interest in the revival of the Silk Road came from two major sources, the United States and the Asian Development Bank.

The United States needed to supply its forces and coalition forces in Afghanistan after the closure of its Pakistan supply route. In 2009, it created the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) which was a logistics chain that stretched from Europe down to Afghanistan. At the same time the U.S. proposed a new Silk Road. The problems inherent in this venture included complicated customs procedures and the widespread existence of bribery. The US initiative was rated as having mixed results. Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank had its own vision of a new Silk Road to accelerate growth and reduce poverty in central Asia. To facilitate this vision, it created the Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation Program (CAREC) back in 1997. Countries involved were Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, The PRC (China) Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. To date, it has spent $USD 38 billion to build road, rail logistics and border facilities. Its aim is to develop new road and rail links between central Asia, China and South Asia.

China has long looked west, and seen Urumqi in its western end as the logical jumping off point. And once again, Chinese made goods are headed toward Europe overland. The prime mover this time is not the camel caravan, but is rail transport, a nineteenth-century technology that is still very much with us. Manufactures in China both domestic and foreign are looking to rail as their shipping means of choice. While rail can be up to 25% more expensive than sea transport, the time efficiency is greater. Time by rail is estimated to be 20 days, loading dock to loading dock, a savings of 10 days over sea transport.

Rail is not without its problems. One of the biggest being rail gauges, i.e. track size. China, Turkey, Iran and Afghanistan use standard gauge, while Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia use the wider Russian gauge. This causes delays including off loading and on-loading of China cargo in Kazakhstan were gauges change. Other problems include complicated customs procedures and corruption as mentioned. Of note was a simple customs union set up by Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus in 2012 which resulted in the elimination of lengthy inspections and the reduction in the amount of theft.

The new Silk Road is already beginning to have far reaching effects. For example, many manufacturers, including computer giant Hewlett Packard have moved to Chongqing in Southwestern China and now ship overland from China to Europe via Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, and Germany. HP’s precedent will clearly inspire others to test the waters and export west along the new/old Silk Road.

Asian Space Race Heats Up In 2013

Mars Orbiter Liftoff.jpg Liftoff: India’s First Mars Mission 5 November 2013 (Photo: ISRO)

by David Parmer

2013 has been an active year for Asian space programs. After a successful satellite launch by South Korea early in the year, and ballistic missile tests and tensions from the DPRK (North Korea) in the spring, the fourth quarter has witnessed other notable space events.These include India’s launch on November 5 of its first Mars orbiter mission, a November 7 launch of a Russian Soyuz mission to the ISS (International Space Station) carrying the Olympic torch, and a planned Chinese Chang’e 3 mission to the Moon in December with a planned Moon landing and the deployment of an unmanned lunar rover.

Despite India’s flawless launch, the mission is still a gamble as Mars missions have about a 50% chance of success. China and Japan have both come up short on their Mars missions. India is said to have the world’s sixth largest space program, and its successes include 70 successful satellite launches as well as a Moon mission in 2008. Critics of India’s space program say funds could be better spent on Earth, while defenders point to the immense benefits in communication, education and medicine brought about by the program. Now that the focus has shifted to exploration it may be harder to justify off-world budgets as more than boosters of national pride.

While some see India’s successful launch of its Mars mission as putting it “ahead” of China, the PRC boasts a solid and accomplished space program which includes an astronaut program, an orbiting lab (Tiangong-1) and the upcoming lunar mission complete with lunar rover deployment.

Japan’s progress has been steady, and while her astronauts have hitched rides on various other countries’ vehicles, it is only a matter of time before she develops her own capability to rival both the U.S. and Russia. Of note was a recent June 2012 Diet bill permitting the development of military application space technology including early-warning capabilities.

Rounding out the Asian card are Iran and the DPRK, both of which had launches this year. Critics contend that their stated scientific purposes were simply cover for the development of military capabilities.

Person of Interest: Neil Shen Sequoia Capital China

Neil Shen.jpg (Photo: World Economic Forum Davos)

by David Parmer

Sequoia Capital, founded in 1972 by legendary venture capitalist Don Valentine, is a Menlo Park California company that has funded some of the biggest players in Silicon Valley, including Apple Computer, CISCO Systems, Oracle, Yahoo, Goggle and Zappos. 10% of NASDAQ- traded companies are said to have been Sequoia funded. In 2005 Sequoia opened its doors in China with Neil Shen at the helm as founding and managing partner.

Shen’s career has had a steady and upward arc. A graduate of Shanghai’s prestigious Jiao Tong University and Yale, he worked in investment banking in New York and Hong Kong for such companies a Deutsche Bank, Chemical Bank Lehman Brothers and Citibank. Shen’s solo career began as co-founder of Ctrip , China’s largest travel booker, in 1999 which listed on the NASDAQ in 2003. In 2002 he was co-founder of Home Inns, China’s largest budget hotel chain which went public in 2006.

Since its founding in 2005, Sequoia Capital China has reported raised more than $USD 3 billion. Unlike venture capital companies in the US, SCC has gone beyond the standard venture areas of tech, media and telecom to include areas like health care and clean tech. Sequoia deals have included LandV, a vegetable producer, Mecox, a mail order business, Great Dreams, an animation studio and 51.com, a social networking concern.