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North Korea’s Military – Laughable or Lethal?

N.Korea Uniforms.jpg (Photo: Army Recognition.com)

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Media reports on the DPRK military are often like the story of the blind men and the elephant. In the story each man grasps a different part of the beast and gives a different and wildly-divergent impression. The 2013 report by the U.S. Defense Department to Congress on North Korea gives an overall view that puts piecemeal reports by the press in a more understandable context.

The North Korean threat to the region is real, and it is an instrument of national policy. The raison d’être for DPRK forces are seen to be twofold; to keep the regime in power and to prevent any significant attack from the ROK, U.S. Japan or an expeditionary force made up of these three countries. At the same time, this capability enables the country to pursue a bellicose, contrarian and concession-extracting foreign policy.

North Korea fields a large, forward-deployed military that retains the capability to inflict serious damage on the ROK, despite significant resource shortfalls and aging hardware. (U.S. Dept. of Defense)

North Korean technology in conventional arms is far behind current world standards but effective. Aircraft date from the 1990s or earlier. While the DPRK has one of the world’s biggest submarine fleets, it along with the Navy (mostly a costal force) are seen as outdated technologically. Vintage Russian and Chinese designs are a big part of the defense mix. The DPRK has the 4th largest military in the world, with 70 submarines,13,000 artillery pieces and substantial armored and infantry units as well as its vintage air force. On paper this looks impressive, but the Pentagon cites serious shortcomings in the military machine of Kim Jong-un. Specifically:

Logistic shortages
Aging equipment
Lack of training

Despite these shortcomings, the threat from the north is credible. It starts with its artillery and rocket forces. Estimates suggest an artillery inventory of 13,000 pieces, many in hardened sites and targeting the territory south of the DMZ and Seoul itself. A second element in the threat is North Korean special forces (SOF). Other sources suggest that as many as 200,000 SOF personnel are on duty. These troops are seen as well equipped, highly motivated professionals capable of being inserted by land sea or air into the ROK to cause havoc and strike high-value targets such as air fields or command centers. Next comes the DPRK’s cyber warfare capability. In a cash-strapped national economy, cyber warfare can deliver a big return on investment. The Pentagon’s report suggests cyber attacks have already been launched on the south, with incidents of Denial of Service (DOS) attacks being attributed to the DPRK. And finally, the tip of Kim Jong-un’s spear is his rocket forces: short and long range missiles, less than sophisticated by world standards, but capable of getting the job done-i.e. threatening both his regional neighbors in China, ROK and Japan, but also the west coast of the United States. It seems that is only a matter of time before North Korea can perfect the launch and re-entry of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a high yield nuclear warhead.

Seen from the Pentagon’s report, the military machine of the DPRK is a well-planned and well thought out instrument of national policy using strategy and limited resources to confront better equipped, better supplied and better trained potential adversaries. And so far this strategy seems to be working just fine.

U.S. Department of Defense Report on North Korea 2013

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/North_Korea_Military_Power_Report_2013-2014.pdf

Asian Waters—The Mighty Mekong in Crisis

Mekong Floating Market Viet Nam (Wikimedia)

by David Parmer

There is an old saying, “You can’t step in the same river twice.” Rivers by their nature flow and can be seen as manifestations of change. The Chinese concept of the nature of the universe, the Tao, was probably derived from the observation of flowing water. So a river changing is nothing surprising. Sadly, it seems as though, against all hope, Asia’s mighty Mekong River may be on the verge of irreversible change that will negatively impact millions of people locally, and countless people globally.

The Mekong River, Asia’s 12th longest waterway makes its way from the Tibetan plateau through China’s tropical Yunan province and south into Burma where it forms the Burma-Laos border, onward south where it again forms a border, this time the Laos- Thailand border. It enters Cambodia and exits into Vietnam’s Mekong delta and finally empties into the South China Sea. It is 4300 km or 2600 miles long.

The river, which is often considered to be of two main sections: upper Mekong and lower Mekong, is rich in biodiversity. It is said to be second only to the Amazon in this regard, and is home to more than 1200 species of fishes and one species of fresh water dolphin as well as the giant catfish which can be 3m long and weigh up to 300kg. Seasonal variations in flow and rapids make navigation along the Mekong difficult, but a lively trade takes place along its length, and up to 2.5 million tons of fish are harvested from its waters each year.

In 1995 four of the six river stakeholders, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam set up the Mekong River Commission to foster river development and promote the livelihood of people along the river. China and Burma did not join the group, but are considered “dialogue partners.”

Left alone, or managed well, the river could sustain life for generations to come. Unfortunately, such does not seem to be the course of future events. The river is now under threat from a number of sources. World Wildlife Funds cites climate change, illegal wildlife trade, pollution, climate change and hydropower to be the main challenges. Of these, damming for electric power is the most potentially devastating because of its effects on local water levels and fish habitat.

Dams (Proposed and Existing) on the Lower Mekong

Dams have already affected the various river ecosystems, but the most troubling are the proposed dams in Laos, which aims to become “the battery of Southeast Asia” by selling electric power to its neighbors. Piecemeal and uncoordinated development along the length of this great waterway looks to be the course of future events, and will clearly not be in the long term interest of the people who make their living from the mighty Mekong.

International Rivers, Lower Mekong Factsheet: http://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/the-lower-mekong-dams-factsheet-text-7908

WWF, Greater Mekong: https://www.worldwildlife.org/places/greater-mekong

China Housing Market-So Far, the 2014 Numbers Are Down

(Photo: China Daily Mail)

by David Parmer

Before 1987, terms like “supply and demand” and “buyer’s market” were probably unknown in China except to a few specialists. In 2014, the reality of these concepts, if not the theory, is common knowledge. China’s housing market is a good case in point. After a go-go market that looked like it would extend out to the horizon, reality has settled in it seems. Oversupply has arrived in China’s housing market, with estimates of around 50,000+ unsold units in China’s first-tier eastern cities. The market is characterized as having big inventories combined with sluggish sales.

The currency trading website Forex Minute reported on June 13, 2014 that sales are down 11% from a year ago and construction of new properties are down 19% for the January-May period as compared to the previous year. Sellers are taking counter-measures by offering various incentives to buyers, and in some cases price cuts. Evergrand Real Estate has cut prices by 15% according to Reuters and sales are trending upward. Meanwhile,the present oversupply is causing ripple effects throughout the greater Chinese economy. Industries like iron and steel making, cement manufacturing, tile making and furniture wholesaling are feeling the pinch. Workers’ wages in all of the above industries are also negatively impacted by the slowdown. Property investment accounts for a hefty 12% of China’s GDP. The government’s target of 7.5% growth for the current fiscal year could be in doubt.

Some analysts predict deep price cutting in the second half of the year that could result in sales targets for 2014 being met. Also banks seem reluctant to underwrite the housing market, and tight lending seems to be the order of the day. The result could be an adjustment in oversupply, which, combined with price cutting, could see the market beginning to stabilize by early 2015.

http://www.forexminute.com/economic-indicators/chinas-home-sales-decline-11-percent-due-to-weak-demand-35044

Person of Interest: Elon Musk

319px-Charles_Bolden_congratulates_SpaceX_CEO_and_Chief_Designer_Elon_Musk_in_front_of_the_historic_Dragon_capsule.jpg

NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, left, congratulates SpaceX CEO and Chief Designer Elon Musk in front of the historic Dragon capsule that returned to Earth on May 31 following the first successful mission by a private company to carry supplies to the International Space Station on June 13, 2012 at the SpaceX facility in McGregor, Texas. (Photo: Wikimedia)

by David Parmer

If he did not exist…we would have to invent him.

If we were going to write a comic book, what the Japanese call “manga” and hipsters in Seattle call a “graphic novel,” we would need a hero. How about inventing an enigmatic hero, bigger than life who experiences a lonely childhood tinkering with computers on the southernmost part of the planet, then in his teens migrates to one of the most northern countries and begins university studies. After that he gains admission to a prestigious university in that country’s southern neighbor where he studies physics and economics at one of the nation’s top B-schools. He then starts a Ph.D. program at another elite school, but drops out after two days, whereupon he begins his stellar rise, i.e., a rise to the stars. First he hacks the financial system, makes it ridiculously easy to send money around the globe. From this he makes a cool $1.5 billion, then he goes on to co-found an electric car company named after the patron saint of geeks everywhere. He gets electric cars on the road, and along the way releases his patents so that others-without having to license his technology-can also build electric cars. He does this out of altruism, but also to get the industry (of which he is positioned squarely at the forefront) going. Sounds like a pretty good story? Shall we stop there, no, let’s keep going. He has an “interest” in space. He wants to see humans get off the planet, he is worried about our survival as a species. (What if a humongous asteroid hits the Earth? What if some virus threatens to wipe us all out?) So he forms a company, calls it Space X, and launches the first commercial satellite from a liquid fueled vehicle, and then gets a contract to send cargo to the planet’s orbiting space lab. He also plans to modify the cargo vehicle to carry a human crew into the far reaches of space. Well, OK, first to Mars– but a couple of decades before the nation’s space agency plans to do so. That should be enough for a good story, but wait, let’s add more: how about he invests in solar technology? His company becomes the largest provider of solar power systems and he plans a factory to be the biggest producer of solar panels on Earth. Finally, how about we add two wives and five children? OK, done. So what should we call the hero of our manga/graphic novel? Hmmmm. How about Elon Musk?

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/currency/2014/06/elon-musk-shares-tesla-patents.html

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27758898

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/184640-spacex-says-it-will-put-humans-on-mars-by-2026-almost-10-years-ahead-of-nasa

Person of Interest: U.S. Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel

imgHandler.ashx.jpeg (Photo: Dep. of Defense)

by David Parmer

“To question your government is not unpatriotic–to not question your government is unpatriotic.”

On February 26, 2013, then Senator Chuck Hagel was confirmed as the 24th Secretary of Defense of the United States. His confirmation was not without controversy. Nominated on Jan 7, 2013 by President Barak Obama, he faced stiff grilling from congress, particularly his Republican colleagues. His nomination was the first ever to be filibustered. Ostensibly, congress was concerned about his support for Israel, which is a pillar of American foreign policy. Ultimately Hagel weathered the storm and was nominated. One would think that Republicans would be glad to have one of their own in a top position in a Democratic administration, and would have given him a pass. And the reason they didn’t? Probably very simple: from the beginning of his political career, Chuck Hagel has been his own man, i.e. he has followed his conscience and done what he sees as right and good for the country, not just his own party.

Hagel has had a steady, if not meteoric rise to the top. He was born on October 4, 1946 in North Platte, Nebraska the oldest of six children. He attended Catholic high school, started technical school and then volunteered for the U.S. Army. He served in Vietnam, was wounded twice and rose to the rank of sergeant. After the Army, he worked in various jobs in radio, and attended the University of Nebraska, graduating in 1971 with a degree in history. Hagel’s career in politics began when he was a staffer for Nebraska Republican Congressman John Y. McCollistor. After working as a lobbyist, he served on Ronald Regan’s successful presidential campaign. In the 1980s he cofounded Vanguard Cellular Systems, and in 1996 launched his own senate campaign. He was a U.S. senator from 1997-2009. During the Iraq war Senator Hagel was critical of the Bush administration and the policies of his own party. He was openly critical of Bush insiders like Carl Rove. He also strongly opposed Bush’s 2007 plan to send another 20,000 troops to Iraq.

From 2009, following his retirement from the senate and prior to his nomination in 2013, Hagel was a professor at the Edmund A Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He also continued to pursue his various business interests.

Secretary Hagel has come aboard in some interesting times. And the global chess board, once intelligible and potentially manageable, now looks more like a game of Jumanji. As Secretary of Defense he must deal with multiple challenges, including America’s pivot to Asia and its support for its Asian allies in the face of growing disputes with China, Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and the ongoing challenges of terrorism, failed states and the nuclear threat from North Korea.

The spearhead of American power must be sharp, but the spear must be wielded judiciously. And who better to do it than Chuck Hagel, a former soldier who has seen the face of war firsthand and knows the costs of war.

(Compiled from Web sources)

2013-Putin Has A Banner Year

Vladimir_Putin_April_2013_interview_to_the_German_ARD-003.jpg (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

by David Parmer

Russian President Vladimir has had a very good year indeed. It seems like he has moved from success to success. Putin’s American counterpart, Barack Obama’s, year seems to have been just the opposite, with reporters at his final press conference of 2013 asking him if this was the worst year of his presidency. Putin had his own end-of-year press conference, but for him, this year was a record of personal and national achievement.

In September, as the clock ticked down on an attack on Syria, Russia not only urged the U.S not to attack, but also put forth a bold plan to get international inspectors on the ground in Syria to remove its chemical weapons. The plan was accepted and the inspectors began their work. Score one for Putin and world peace.

Putin’s next bold move was to grant political asylum to Edward Snowden, former NSA contractor and leaker of classified information. Putin described Snowden as “noble” but said he had never met Snowden. In his press conference Putin noted that he was not going to justify U.S. surveillance, but that it was conducted for the purpose of combating terrorism.

Putin’s final big success of the year was to get Ukraine to side with Russia instead of the European Union. Russia provided a massive loan and substantially cut the price of gas. Putin described Russia’s interest in Ukraine as fraternal. While Russia did not overtly oppose Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU, it clearly looked out for its own economic interests.

And finally, neighbors Russia and China had a year of improving relations, with meetings taking place between President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Putin said he had a good working and personal relationship with Xi. Improved military ties with China were also promoted in 2013.

What will happen in 2014 for Putin and Russia is anybody’s guess, but the year begins with the Sochi winter Olympics, and the Olympics generally gives a major boost to any country’s national prestige. So maybe once again Vladimir Putin will be on the fast track to continued success.

China’s ADIZ: Can Sun Tzu Tell Us Anything?

by David Parmer

On November 23, 2013, The People’s Republic of China announced an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea. Aircraft flying into this zone are required to:

Identify themselves
Report their flight plans
Inform ground control of their exact location

Japan, and its U.S. ally have seen this as an escalation of tensions, and have refused to comply. Both the U.S and Japan have sent military aircraft into the newly-created ADIZ without complying with any of the above-mentioned requirements. Moreover, the area encompassed by the ADIZ covers the territory under dispute between Japan and China, know as the Diaoyu or Senkaku Islands.

The question is why China is declaring this ADIZ at this time, and what advantage does she hopes to gain by doing so? To look for an answer we can turn to China’s pre-eminent strategist, Sun Tzu, ( 544-496 BC) a general during the Spring and Autumn period, and author of the world-famous Art of War. Perhaps China’s strategy can be interpreted by having a look at General Sun’s work.

Many observers see The Art of War as an expression of Chinese Taoist thought, a semi-mystical philosophical system based on the observation of nature and natural phenomena expressing themselves in the polar opposites of Yin and Yang.

In General Sun’s treatise there is a section on Emptiness and Fullness, which could be considered a prime example of Taoist thought.

“Therefore, good warriors cause others to come to them, and do not go to others.”

We have seen Japan and the U.S. sending planes into the ADIZ, as on cue, and almost as if they had no choice. General Sun might say they had been even compelled to do so.

“So assess them to find out their plans, both the successful ones and the failures. Incite them to action in order to find out the patterns of their movement and rest.”

Again, China has incited Japan and the U.S. to action by establishing the ADIZ. The U.S. has made it pivot to Asia. The question is how far it will go in supporting its Japanese ally? The answer is: it will immediately fly bombers into the ADIZ to show defiance and underscore its commitment to Japan. So China now has a clear picture. The U.S. and Japan have been incited to action.

“Test them to find out where they are sufficient and where they are lacking.”

The ADIZ response by the U.S. and Japan gives China a clear picture of the patterns, extent and methods of its response to future incidents should tensions escalate even further.

Tensions in the South China Sea seem to rise almost daily. The parties involved all seem to believe that they are acting strategically and in their national self interest. But what will happen if an “unforeseen incident” happens? If planes are lost or ships fire on one another where will things go from there? Some may say it will never happen, but the probability and possibility seem only to increase.

Quotations from: Sun Tzu, The Art of War, Translated by Thomas Cleary

China-Iran: No Permanent Alliances, Only Permanent Interests

Xi meets Larijani.jpg President XiJinping and Iranian Speaker Ali Larijani (Photo: FMPRC)

by David Parmer

These days, China- Iran relations center on two key points: oil and trade. China is Iran’s biggest customer for crude oil. Iran has been hard hit with U.S. sanctions that have frozen assets and crippled its oil industry. Sanctions are aimed at Iran’s nuclear program, which Iran claims is designed for peaceful energy production, while countries around the world, led by the U.S. see it as a cover for the development of nuclear weapons.

On November 20, 2013, China’s president, XiJinping urged his Iranian counterpart to “seize the opportunity” to improve relations with other world powers at the third round of the current Geneva meetings.

In October, both China and South Korea cut imports of Iranian crude; China to stay within agreed U.S. guidelines. The Financial Times reported on November 22, 2013 that in October 2013 there was a 45% decline in Iranian crude exports, and a resulting cutback in production. Crude oil accounts for 80% of Iran’s exports and half of the Iranian government’s income.

Clearly the pressure is on Iran to come and make some concessions at the Geneva meetings in exchange for easing of sanctions and partial un-freezing of its international assets.
The Obama administration is gambling that it can deal with the less-hardline regime of President Hassan Rowhani. Opposition to any deal comes from Israel and Saudi Arabia. In a world economy experiencing a certain slowdown, a deal to allow Iran greater oil exports could cause a glut in the market and drive down prices worldwide.

As for non-oil trade, Iranian Customs reported $4.06billion worth of exports to China, while Iran imported $5.7billion from China in the first eight months of 2013. One area of China-Iran friction centers around complaints that cheap Chinese goods have flooded the Iranian market seriously damaging smaller Iranian concerns. While China-related infrastructure projects already exist, there is sentiment for more of that type of activity as opposed to the inflow of cheap goods. Moreover, since China pays for Iranian petroleum in Yuan (RMB), Iran’s payments are locked in China’s banks. Estimates of these funds range from $20-47 billion. Reports quoted Iran’s Tasnim News as saying that a deal had been struck between China and Iran during meetings in October 2013 with Speaker Ali Larijani and Chinese leaders in Beijing to fund development projects in Iran using some $22billion of the above-mentioned funds.

(This report was compiled from various Web sources)

New Silk Road Again Links Asia-Europe

Train Uzbek.jpg

(Photo: ADB)

by David Parmer

The Silk Road-just the name brings to mind images of camel caravans crossing vast empty spaces bringing trade goods from one civilization to another. The total distance of the ancient trade routes connecting East, South and Western Asia with the Mediterranean world and North Africa is estimated to be about 8,000 km, or about 5,000 miles. From the second century BC, goods crossed those vast distances and connected civilizations. Then, in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries with the rise of global navigation and the opening of sea lanes, these ancient trade routes fell into decline and disuse.

Things stayed pretty much the same with little but historical interest until around the turn of this century, when things again began to heat up. Interest in the revival of the Silk Road came from two major sources, the United States and the Asian Development Bank.

The United States needed to supply its forces and coalition forces in Afghanistan after the closure of its Pakistan supply route. In 2009, it created the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) which was a logistics chain that stretched from Europe down to Afghanistan. At the same time the U.S. proposed a new Silk Road. The problems inherent in this venture included complicated customs procedures and the widespread existence of bribery. The US initiative was rated as having mixed results. Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank had its own vision of a new Silk Road to accelerate growth and reduce poverty in central Asia. To facilitate this vision, it created the Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation Program (CAREC) back in 1997. Countries involved were Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, The PRC (China) Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. To date, it has spent $USD 38 billion to build road, rail logistics and border facilities. Its aim is to develop new road and rail links between central Asia, China and South Asia.

China has long looked west, and seen Urumqi in its western end as the logical jumping off point. And once again, Chinese made goods are headed toward Europe overland. The prime mover this time is not the camel caravan, but is rail transport, a nineteenth-century technology that is still very much with us. Manufactures in China both domestic and foreign are looking to rail as their shipping means of choice. While rail can be up to 25% more expensive than sea transport, the time efficiency is greater. Time by rail is estimated to be 20 days, loading dock to loading dock, a savings of 10 days over sea transport.

Rail is not without its problems. One of the biggest being rail gauges, i.e. track size. China, Turkey, Iran and Afghanistan use standard gauge, while Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia use the wider Russian gauge. This causes delays including off loading and on-loading of China cargo in Kazakhstan were gauges change. Other problems include complicated customs procedures and corruption as mentioned. Of note was a simple customs union set up by Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus in 2012 which resulted in the elimination of lengthy inspections and the reduction in the amount of theft.

The new Silk Road is already beginning to have far reaching effects. For example, many manufacturers, including computer giant Hewlett Packard have moved to Chongqing in Southwestern China and now ship overland from China to Europe via Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, and Germany. HP’s precedent will clearly inspire others to test the waters and export west along the new/old Silk Road.

Asian Space Race Heats Up In 2013

Mars Orbiter Liftoff.jpg Liftoff: India’s First Mars Mission 5 November 2013 (Photo: ISRO)

by David Parmer

2013 has been an active year for Asian space programs. After a successful satellite launch by South Korea early in the year, and ballistic missile tests and tensions from the DPRK (North Korea) in the spring, the fourth quarter has witnessed other notable space events.These include India’s launch on November 5 of its first Mars orbiter mission, a November 7 launch of a Russian Soyuz mission to the ISS (International Space Station) carrying the Olympic torch, and a planned Chinese Chang’e 3 mission to the Moon in December with a planned Moon landing and the deployment of an unmanned lunar rover.

Despite India’s flawless launch, the mission is still a gamble as Mars missions have about a 50% chance of success. China and Japan have both come up short on their Mars missions. India is said to have the world’s sixth largest space program, and its successes include 70 successful satellite launches as well as a Moon mission in 2008. Critics of India’s space program say funds could be better spent on Earth, while defenders point to the immense benefits in communication, education and medicine brought about by the program. Now that the focus has shifted to exploration it may be harder to justify off-world budgets as more than boosters of national pride.

While some see India’s successful launch of its Mars mission as putting it “ahead” of China, the PRC boasts a solid and accomplished space program which includes an astronaut program, an orbiting lab (Tiangong-1) and the upcoming lunar mission complete with lunar rover deployment.

Japan’s progress has been steady, and while her astronauts have hitched rides on various other countries’ vehicles, it is only a matter of time before she develops her own capability to rival both the U.S. and Russia. Of note was a recent June 2012 Diet bill permitting the development of military application space technology including early-warning capabilities.

Rounding out the Asian card are Iran and the DPRK, both of which had launches this year. Critics contend that their stated scientific purposes were simply cover for the development of military capabilities.