タグ: “Taiwan election 2016”

News Roundup December 2015

At RG21 we cover a number of topics throughout the year that we feel are of interest to our Asian and world readers. As these stories are ongoing, we can not always cover developments as they happen in a weekly blog. So from time to time we will give a short roundup of current topics with links to news and official sources.

Taiwan Elections 2016: We have been following the Taiwan elections in 2015 rather closely. At this time it seems that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will win big and Tsai Ing-wen will become president. The question is how badly will the KMT be defeated, and what will the post election direction be for Taiwan, especially in its relations to the People’s Republic. Tsai has indicated that there will be not much change in the status quo vis-a-vis the PRC, but the spring of 2016 will begin to give us some indication of how this plays out.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taiwan-presidential-candidates-clash-china-debate-35961982

North Korea: 2015 has been a rather “quiet” year for the DPRK and its supreme leader Kim Jung-un. Kim declined to attend celebrations to mark the 70th anniversary of WWII and observers speculate that he did not feel free to travel abroad despite his continuing tightening of his hold on the levers of power. Kim’s all-girl pop group made it as far as Beijing, but then returned without performing. The year ended with one of his chief advisors perishing in a mysterious automobile crash in the closing days of the year.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/north-koreas-top-official-on-south-korea-relations-dies-in-car-accident-1451445874

South China Sea: This year saw a tense standoff between China and the U.S. over the South China Sea. The U.S. claims that it has the right to navigate the South China Sea freely while China maintains that its sovereignty is at stake. A U.S. Navy ship sailed through the area without incident, and China protested. This situation shows no signs of abating in 2016, and apparently China has no intention to stop its “island building” and the U.S. has no intention of adhering to China’s claims on its claimed territory in the area.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/china-blasts-the-us-over-serious-military-provocation-in-taiwan-a6783556.html

Hi-Tech: The big news in mid-December was the purchase of the South China Morning Post (SCMP) by Internet giant Alibaba. Jack Ma’s company (which has experienced some turbulence this year) paid in excess of $200 million for the Post. This move follows Amazon’s recent acquisition of the Washington Post. The question now is how will a China-based corporation influence news coverage by the SCMP. What changes, if any, will become apparent in 2016 under the new Hangzhou-based management?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/14/chinese-internet-giant-alibaba-buys-south-china-morning-post-for-266m

Photo: Korea Net via flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/koreanet/23574365105/in/datetaken/

 

 

China – Taiwan Relations: Iceberg Ahead!

201504100013t0001.jpg                                                       (Photo: Focus Taiwan News)

                                                        by David Parmer

It is 2015 and a woman is running for president. Not in the US, but in Taiwan.The Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Chair, Tsai Ing-wen has declared herself a candidate for president in the coming 2016 elections. This will be her second run for president. She also ran in 2012, but was defeated by Taiwan’s current president, Ma Ying-jeou.

 Voters gave the DPP a resounding victory in local elections in autumn 2014, and Taiwan’s President Ma stepped down as KMT party president to take responsibility for the poor showing.

 It looks like the voters will again hand the KMT a defeat, this time in the 2016 general election for President, Vice-President and Legislative Yuan. Current KMT president and mayor of New Taipei City, Eric Chu, has said that he is not going to run in 2016. If the chances of winning are as slim as they look, maybe Mr. Chu does not want to damage his political reputation by being beaten in a lopsided presidential election. 

 If Tsai Ing-wen does become president, and the DPP gets the landslide victory that many anticipate, then cross strait relations with the People’s Republic will take a new direction. 

 The Wall Street Journal reported ( April 15, 2015) that Tsai has already said relations with the PRC will remain unchanged and the status quo will be respected.

 But. The DPP has made its position quite clear. In 2007 it called for a separate identity for Taiwan. What’s more, the party considers Taiwan independence a fact, and rejects the one-China principle. On its website, the DPP describes itself as favoring a “balanced international perspective” “Taiwan-centric identity” and “strong progressive values.”

 Tsai’s statement favoring the status quo regarding cross strait relations may not satisfy anyone. The DPP is the DPP and Taiwan uniting with the mainland does not seem to be part of their DNA.

Could this issue be the one chance that the KMT has to narrow the odds in the 2016 election, or even win the election? Many have benefited from the warmer relations between the PRC and Taiwan during the Ma years, in a sense they have a real vested interest in their own “status quo”, that is, improved economic and social relations with the mainland.

And. Then there is the coalition of students and independent  groups that made up the Sunflower Movement of 2014 that occupied the Legislative Yuan. Their complaint was with the KMT and its cross strait trade policy, but even if the DPP wins in 2016, will the younger generation be satisfied with “business as usual” or “business as usual 1.1 DPP style”?

 Finally. In the world of politics, where pragmatism often trumps principles, perhaps an “accommodation” could be reached between the PRC and DPP  favoring the status quo and business as usual.

Except. That there is a metaphorical iceberg in the Taiwan Strait, and that is Taiwan Independence. Sooner or later action must be taken to deal with the issue. And each party has a radically different solution to the problem.