China–Taiwan Question: Another Year Goes By Without A Solution.

                         by David Parmer / Tokyo

Well 2020 is rapidly winding down; just about a month or so to go, and the Year of the Rat will be gone. The truth be told, not many people will miss this year, or remember it fondly due to its association with the COVID-19 pandemic.

When it comes to relations between Beijing and Taipei, there hasn’t been a lot of movement during the past 11 months. Probably the biggest happenings this year has been the visit of high-level US officials following the passage of the Taiwan Relations Act by the US congress, and continuing US arms sales to Taiwan.

The biggest “win” for President Tsai Ing-wen has been warming relations with the United States under the Trump administration. And while the US has never said that it will come to the aid of Taiwan if attacked by the PRC, it says that the matter is of grave interest.

Beijing has its red line, and that means anything to do with Taiwan independence is seen as crossing that line. President Tsai and her party have ventured close to the line but have not come close to crossing it. Beijing for its part has never denied that military action to rejoin Taiwan is one of its options.

So a stalemate persists. With the Democratic Progressive Party in power it looks like there will be no closer relations with Beijing. Should the Kuomintang again gain power, then a warming of relations could be expected to take place. 

What is troubling is that Beijing and Taipei see no creative way to solve their differences. Beijing’s only attempt at a nuanced solution was to suggest a One Country-Two Systems solution such as that under which Hong Kong is now governed. This has been soundly rejected by Taipei in light of what it considers Beijing’s lack of good faith as witnessed by the events in Hong Kong.

So stalemate. It appears that neither Hong Kong nor Taipei sees any advantage to a closer relationship with Beijing. Beijing has nothing to offer them that they don’t already have. In the distant past the high culture of China was indeed attractive to people in the neighborhood who copied Chinese culture and aspired to that which China could offer.

So what would create a “willing” closer affiliation with the mainland? At present, nothing. What then is the solution? Maybe in the current way of thinking there simply isn’t one. Beijing seems to have only one strategy: Join us or else. There could, perhaps, be a more nuanced way to approach the problem. Taiwan is part of China, but what does “China” mean?

Is there no possibility for a “federation” of China, or a “commonwealth” of China?A “commonwealth” or “federation” of China could relieve Beijing of three of its headaches and its negative perception by the rest of the world. A commonwealth of China could solve not only the Taiwan question, but also the question of Tibet and of the Uighurs in Xinjiang. A indefinite continuation of the One-Country Two Systems in Hong Kong could keep tensions low there as well.

There is an old saying to the effect that if the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Right now, Beijing seems to have a hammer mentality with regard to Taiwan. Having only one solution is a sure way to a lack of progress and stalemate, which is what is taking place now. Classical Chinese culture shows us a mastery of nuance and subtlety in thought and expression. Perhaps it is time to draw on this ancient wisdom to create some workable answers to the Taiwan question.

Please let us know your thoughts on this.

Photo: Heikki Holstila via flickr

 

 

World’s Toughest Job? Johnny Chiang Takes Helm at Taiwan KMT.

On March 9, 2020 Johnny Chiang took office as the new president of Taiwan’s KMT party. (Some might say “China’s KMT”…) Many observers feel that the relatively youthful Chiang, 48, has a rough road ahead. Chiang won a decisive victory over his rival Hua Ling-pin by collecting 68.8% of the vote in a low-turnout KMT election. Chiang immediately promised to reform and revitalize the venerable KMT. He promised to do this in terms of party culture as well structure. There was also talk of a more de-centralized or localized KMT.

What makes his job difficult is not just the stodgy image of the KMT and its membership, but also the fact that over 50% of the population consider themselves “Taiwanese” and not Chinese. Despite Beijing’s slow but steady chipping away at Taiwan’s diplomatic alliances, many young people see Taiwan as already an independent country. Polls show that just about 4% of Taiwanese consider their island part of China.

 All of this makes the KMT’s historically pro-Beijing KMT party line a difficult sell to both to younger people as well as to a majority of the Taiwanese. Chiang’s promises of reform and restructuring may indeed succeed, and the KMT may re-invent itself as a leaner, more modern and robust opposition party.

 However, the “panda in the room” is the 1992 Consensus and the One-China policy. From the beginning Mr. Chiang has said that in the short term there will be no announcement on the 1992 Consensus and that a committee will decide. His deft dodging of the question harks back to that master politician himself, Deng Xio-ping, who essentially did the same thing decades before when discussing the fate of Taiwan.

With local elections coming in 2022 and presidential elections again in 2024, the KMT will really have to answer the “one China/ 1992 Consensus” question if it is to have any chance of gaining legislative seats or indeed the presidency itself. What might happen is that the KMT drops its historically pro-Beijing posture and gets closer to the DPP’s position on China. This will get them more votes domestically, but then both parties will have to face the displeasure of the CCP.

Just as Mr. Chiang had won decisively this time, incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen’s Democratic Progressive Party had captured the presidency in the January 2020 elections. After a recent election defeat, Tsai Ing-wen had to step down as DPP party head, and it appeared that the KMT would be resurgent in 2020 and that she would be out. But thanks to the unrest and demonstrations in Hong Kong in 2019, Tsai’s fortunes were reversed and she kept a decisive hold on the presidency. 

Here we are in 2020 and now it is being said that Johnnie Chiang and the KMT have little chance to gain power. At this point it might seem true, but if Mr. Chiang sets to work with a purpose, all things may very well change in the coming elections. Fate and the Taiwan voters have a way of making things like that happen.

photo: wikimedia commons

Taiwan Elections 2020–A Done Deal?

                          by David Parmer / Tokyo

January 11, 2020 is Election Day in Taiwan. Voters will be choosing both a president and a number of legislators in Saturday’s election. Will there be any surprises in the election? All indications seem to indicate that there will not be any surprises.

Most bettors would probably put their money on incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen to be re-elected and to defeat her opponents: KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu and People’s First Party James Soong Chu-yu. Barring some last-minute catastrophic change or event, Tsai will get another 4 years. What will be interesting to see is if the opposition parties gain legislative seats or even a significant number of seats.

President Tasi’s first four years have been unremarkable. Perhaps stability in a tense situation is what she brings to the Taiwan-PRC equation.Tsai’s DPP suffered legislative defeat in 2019 and Tsai resigned as party head to take responsibility. What might have followed was a resurgence of the KMT and the DPP being swept away were it not for the social unrest in Hong Kong. Tsai’s long-standing rejection of Beijing’s One Country, Two Systems offer may have a strong resonance among Taiwan voters looking west.

Cross-Strait relations are always in the forefront when considering Taiwan and the PRC. Relations warmed up under KMT President Ma Jing-yeou but immediately cooled when the DPP took over. At present Beijing has barred individual travel to Taiwan, thus damping the tourist industry and eliminating valuable cash inflow. Also, at the same time, President Tsai has had some success in luring Taiwanese companies home to Taiwan.

Improved ties and a melding of the two Taiwan and Mainland economies would be an attractive outcome for Beijing. For cultural and economic reasons the two entities would draw closer. A virtually seamless economy might make One Country, Two Systems more palatable to many people in Taiwan. In addition this would negate the necessity of a costly military option that would bring negative outcomes to all parties involved.

Some reports say that President Tsai and the DPP might be working on improving these cross-Strait relations, and this has stolen some thunder from Han Ku-yu’s program. However, as long as the DPP and President Tsai do not reaffirm the “1992 Consensus” and the “Once China” policy, it is likely that there will be little significant warming of relations between Taiwan and the PRC.

In the beginning of 2020 China has its hands full with the situation in Hong Kong and its public relations fail in convincing the world of what it describes as its fair treatment of its Uighur population. So it is unlikely that Beijing will ratchet up tensions with Taiwan (barring the crossing of the reddest of red lines, i.e. a declaration of Taiwan independence) in the short term, and that it will be pretty much “business as usual” in Taiwan in 2020 following the election of January 11.

Photo: National Renewable Energy Lab via flickr

Taiwan’s President Tsai Issues A Call To Action

                          by David Parmer/Tokyo

On May 20, 2016 Tsai Ing-wen was sworn in as Taiwan’s first female president. Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won a resounding victory in the last election, soundly defeating the Nationalist Party (KMT) and gaining a mandate for change.

Media reports since the election have focused on cross-strait relations. Beijing has made it clear that it will not tolerate any moves toward Taiwan independence. This is understandable since the DPP has traditionally been pro-independence.

In the meantime President Tsai has repeatedly said that she will respect the status quo when it comes to cross-strait relations. In her inauguration speech she again reiterated this; but apparently not strongly enough for Beijing to feel reassured.

So what is being missed? Just this: on May 20, Tsai Ing-wen laid out a plan for a revitalized and rejuvenated Taiwan, a society that would create jobs for its young people, build a sustainable future for its citizens, redress old wrongs and overhaul a bureaucracy long in need of reform.

On May 20th Tsai shared her vision for a 21st century Taiwan. It was a stirring speech, a call to action and a commitment to serve the people of Taiwan.

President Tsai’s speech is reproduced in full below. Take the time to read it yourself and draw your own conclusions. If you have any thoughts after reading, please log in and share them with us.

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Taipei, May 20 (CNA) The following is the full text of President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) inaugural address as released by the Presidential Office Friday:

 

Esteemed heads of state and guests from our diplomatic allies, distinguished ambassadors and representatives, dear friends, our fellow citizens across the country:

Our Gratitude and Responsibilities

Just moments ago, in the Presidential Office building, Dr. Chen Chien-jen and I were officially sworn in as the 14th President and Vice President of the Republic of China. We must express our gratitude to this land for nurturing us and to the people for placing their trust in us. Most importantly, we deeply appreciate the democratic institutions of this country, which have allowed us to accomplish Taiwan’s third transition of political power through a peaceful electoral process. We also overcame many uncertainties throughout a four months-long transition period that concluded peacefully today.

 

Once again, the people of Taiwan have shown the world through our actions that we, as a free and democratic people, are committed to the defense of our freedom and democracy as a way of life. Each and every one of us participated in this journey. My dear fellow Taiwanese, we did it.

I would like to tell you that, regarding the results of the January 16th elections, I have always had one interpretation only. The people elected a new president and new government with one single expectation: solving problems.

 

At this very moment, Taiwan faces a difficult situation that requires its leaders to shoulder the burdens without hesitation. This is something I will not forget. I would also like to tell you that, the multitude of challenges before us require that we face them honestly and shoulder the responsibilities together.

 Therefore, this speech is an invitation. I invite every fellow citizen to carry the future of this country.

 It is not the leader who makes a country great; it is the collective striving of the people that makes this country great. A president should not only unite her own supporters; she should unite the entire country. To stand united for change — that is my earnest hope for this country. Here, I sincerely call on everyone to give this country a chance.

 Let us leave behind the prejudices and conflicts of the past, and together fulfill the mission that the new era has entrusted to us.

 At this moment and as President, I declare to the citizens of this country that my administration will demonstrate resolve in spearheading this country’s reform, and will never back down.

 Building a Better Country for the Younger Generation

 The path forward is not a smooth one. Taiwan needs a new government that readily takes on each and every challenge. And it is my job to lead such a government.

 Our pension system will go bankrupt without reform.

 Our rigid educational system is increasingly out of touch with society. Our energy and resources are limited, and our economy lacks momentum, with the old model of OEM manufacturing facing a bottleneck. This country urgently needs a new model for economic development.

 Our population is rapidly aging, while the long-term care system remains inadequate.

 Our birthrate remains low, while a sound childcare system seems a distant prospect.

 Our environment still suffers from severe pollution.

 Our country’s fiscal situation is far from optimistic.

 Our judicial system has lost the trust of the people.

 

Our families are deeply disturbed by food safety scandals.

 

Our wealth disparities are still widening.

 

Our social safety net is full of holes.

 

Most importantly, and I must stress: our young people still suffer from low wages. Their lives are stuck, and they feel helpless and confused about the future.

 Young people’s future is the government’s responsibility. If unfriendly structures persist, the situation for young people will never improve, no matter how many elite talents we have. My self-expectation is that, within my term as President, I will tackle this country’s problems step by step, starting with the basic structure.

 This is what I want to do for the young people of Taiwan. Although I cannot give every young person a raise instantly, I can promise that the new administration will initiate actions immediately. Please give us some time, and please join us on this journey of reform.

 To change young people’s predicament is to change a country’s predicament. When its young people have no future, a country is certain to have no future. It is the solemn duty of the new administration to help young people overcome difficulties, achieve generational justice, and deliver to the next generation a better country.

 

  • 1. Transforming Economic Structures

 To build a better country, going forward, the new administration must accomplish the following tasks. The first is to transform Taiwan’s economic structure. This is the most formidable task that the new administration must take on. We must not think lightly of ourselves, and we must not lose confidence. Taiwan enjoys many advantages that other countries lack.

 We have the vibrancy and resilience of a maritime economy, high quality human resources, the pragmatic and reliable culture of engineers, a well-developed industrial chain, nimble and agile small and medium enterprises, and of course, our relentless entrepreneurial spirit. In order to completely transform Taiwan’s economy, from this moment on, we must bravely chart a different course – and that is to build a “New Model for Economic Development” for Taiwan.

 The new administration will pursue a new economic model for sustainable development based on the core values of innovation, employment and equitable distribution. The first step of reform is to strengthen the vitality and autonomy of our economy, reinforce Taiwan’s global and regional connections, and actively participate in multilateral and bilateral economic cooperation as well as free trade negotiations including the TPP and RCEP.

 We will also promote a “New Southbound Policy” in order to elevate the scope and diversity of our external economy, and to bid farewell to our past overreliance on a single market.

 Furthermore, the new administration believes that the only way for Taiwan to overcome the current economic stagnation is to stimulate new momentum for growth. Our export and domestic demand will serve as twin engines for growth, allowing business production to become closely integrated with the livelihoods of the people, while building close ties between foreign trade and the local economy.

 We will prioritize our plans to promote five major innovative industries, with the goal of reshaping Taiwan’s global competitiveness. By protecting labor rights, we will also actively raise productivity and allow wages to grow in lockstep with the economy.

 This is a crucial moment for Taiwan’s economic development. We have the resolve and the ability to communicate. Going forward, we have systematic plans to engage in interagency cooperation, in order to consolidate the strength of the entire country and bring forth this new model.

 As we pursue economic development, we must not forget our responsibility to the environment. Our New Model for Economic Development will be fully integrated with national land-use planning, regional development and environmental sustainability. Industrial planning strategy and national land-use should not be fragmented or shortsighted.

 We must also pursue balanced regional development, which requires planning and coordination by the central administration. And it requires our local governments to uphold the spirit of regional joint governance.

 We must not endlessly expend natural resources and the health of our citizens as we have done in the past. Therefore, we will strictly monitor and control all sources of pollution. We will also bring Taiwan into an age of circular economy, turning waste into renewable resources. We will gradually adjust our energy options based on the concepts of sustainability.

 The new administration will seriously address issues related to climate change, land conservation and disaster prevention. After all, we only have one earth, and we only have one Taiwan. 

  • 2. Strengthening the Social Safety Net

The second area that the new government must address is to strengthen Taiwan’s social safety net. Over the past few years, several incidents of violent crime affecting the safety of children and youth have shaken our entire society.

 However, a government cannot remain in a state of shock. It must demonstrate empathy. No one can endure the pain and suffering on behalf of the victims’ families. However, the government, and especially the first responders, must let the victims and their family members feel that, when unfortunate incidents occur, the government is on their side.

 Beyond offering empathy, the government should propose solutions. We must do everything we can to prevent the repeated occurrences of tragedy, by swiftly mending holes in areas such as public safety, education, mental health and social work. The new administration will address these issues with the utmost seriousness and readiness to act, particularly on public safety and anti-drug efforts.

 The issue of pension reform is crucial for the survival and development of Taiwan. We should not hesitate, nor should we act in haste. Vice President Chen Chien-jen is spearheading the establishment of a Pension Reform Committee. Previous administrations have devoted some effort to this issue, but public participation was inadequate. The new government will launch a collective negotiation process, because pension reform must unite everyone involved.

 For this reason, we will convene a national congress on pension reform that brings together representatives from different social classes and occupations to engage in negotiations on the basis of societal unity. Within a year, we will offer a workable proposal for reform. Whether you are employed in the private or the public sector, life after retirement for every citizen should receive fair protection.

 Furthermore, on the issue of long-term care, we will establish a high-quality, affordable and extensive long-term care system. Like pension reform, long-term care is a process of social mobilization. The new administration’s approach is for the government to lead and plan, while encouraging citizens to organize in communities; through the efforts of collective social assistance, our goal is to build an adequate and comprehensive system.

 Every senior citizen can comfortably enjoy life after retirement in a community they are familiar with. Every family will see their burden of care lightened. We cannot leave senior care entirely to the free market. We will take up our responsibilities, plan and implement step by step, and get adequately prepared for the arrival of a hyper-aging society.

  • 3. Social Fairness and Justice

 The third area the new government must address is social fairness and justice. On this issue, the new government will continue to work with civil society to align its policies with the values of diversity, equality, openness, transparency, and human rights, so as to deepen and evolve Taiwan’s democratic institutions.

 For the new democratic system to move forward, we must first find a way to face the past together. I will establish a Truth and Reconciliation Commission inside the Presidential Office, to address the historical past in the most sincere and cautious manner. The goal of transitional justice is to pursue true social reconciliation, so that all Taiwanese can take to heart the mistakes of that era.

 We will begin by investigating and sorting through the facts. Within the next three years, we plan to complete Taiwan’s own investigative report on transitional justice. Follow-up work on transitional justice will then be carried out in accordance with the truth unveiled by the report. We will discover the truth, heal wounds, and clarify responsibilities. From here on out, history will no longer divide Taiwan. Instead, it will propel Taiwan forward.

 Also related to fairness and justice, I will uphold the same principles when addressing issues concerning Taiwan’s indigenous peoples. At today’s Inauguration Ceremony, before they sang the national anthem, the indigenous children first sang the traditional melodies of their tribes. This means that we dare not forget who arrived first on this island.

 The new government will address issues concerning indigenous peoples with an apologetic attitude. My administration will work to rebuild an indigenous historical perspective, progressively promote indigenous autonomous governance, restore indigenous languages and cultures, and improve the livelihood of indigenous communities.

 Next, the new government will actively promote judicial reform. At this juncture, this is the issue the people of Taiwan care the most about. The general sentiment is that the judicial system is not close to the people, and is not trusted by them. It is unable to fight crime effectively, and has lost its function as the last line of defense for justice.

 To demonstrate the new government’s resolve, we will hold a national congress on judicial issues this coming October. By allowing public participation and letting in social forces, we will advance judicial reform together. The judicial system must respond to the needs of the people. It will no longer be a judicial system for legal professionals only, but for everyone. Judicial reform is not only the business of legal professionals; it must be inclusive. These are my expectations for judicial reform.

 

  • 4. Regional Peace and Stability and Cross-Strait Relations

 The fourth area for the new government to address is regional peace, stability and development, as well as the proper management of cross-Strait relations. Over the past 30 years, Asia and the world have undergone dramatic changes. And governments have become increasingly concerned over global and regional economic stability and collective security.

 Taiwan has always played an indispensable role in the region’s development. But in recent years, regional dynamics have been changing rapidly. If Taiwan does not effectively use its strengths and leverage to proactively participate in regional affairs, it will not only become insignificant, it may even become marginalized and lose the ability to determine its own future.

 But where there is crisis, there is opportunity. The present stage of Taiwan’s economic development is highly connected and complementary with many countries in the region. If our efforts to build a New Model for Economic Development can be linked to other Asian and Asia-Pacific countries through cooperation, to jointly shape future development strategies, we will not just contribute to the region’s innovation.

 We will also contribute greatly to the region’s structural adjustment and sustainable development. Together with other members of this region, we will forge an intimate sense of “economic community.”

 We will share resources, talents and markets with other countries to achieve economies of scale and to allow the efficient use of resources. This is the spirit on which our “New Southbound Policy” is based. We will broaden exchanges and cooperation with regional neighbors in areas such as technology, culture and commerce, and expand in particular our dynamic relationships with ASEAN and India.

 We are also willing to engage in candid exchanges and pursue possibilities for cooperation and collaboration with the other side of the Strait on our common participation in regional development.

 As we actively develop our economy, the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region is becoming increasingly complex. Cross-Strait relations have become an integral part of building regional peace and collective security. In this process, Taiwan will be a “staunch guardian of peace” that actively participates and is never absent. We will work to maintain peace and stability in cross-Strait relations. We will make efforts to facilitate domestic reconciliation, strengthen our democratic institutions, consolidate consensus, and present a united position to the outside world.

 For us to accomplish our goals, dialogue and communication are absolutely crucial. Taiwan will also become a “proactive communicator for peace.” We will establish mechanisms for intensive and routine communications with all parties involved, and exchange views at all times to prevent misjudgment, establish mutual trust, and effectively resolve disputes. We will handle related disputes in adherence to the principles of maintaining peace and sharing interests.

 I was elected President in accordance with the Constitution of the Republic of China, thus it is my responsibility to safeguard the sovereignty and territory of the Republic of China; regarding problems arising in the East China Sea and South China Sea, we propose setting aside disputes so as to enable joint development.

 We will also work to maintain the existing mechanisms for dialogue and communication across the Taiwan Strait. In 1992, the two institutions representing each side across the Strait (SEF & ARATS), through communication and negotiations, arrived at various joint acknowledgements and understandings.

 It was done in a spirit of mutual understanding and a political attitude of seeking common ground while setting aside differences. I respect this historical fact. Since 1992, over twenty years of interactions and negotiations across the Strait have enabled and accumulated outcomes which both sides must collectively cherish and sustain; and it is based on such existing realities and political foundations that the stable and peaceful development of the cross-Strait relationship must be continuously promoted.

 The new government will conduct cross-Strait affairs in accordance with the Republic of China Constitution, the Act Governing Relations Between the People of Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area, and other relevant legislation. The two governing parties across the Strait must set aside the baggage of history, and engage in positive dialogue, for the benefit of the people on both sides.

 By existing political foundations, I refer to a number of key elements. The first element is the fact of the 1992 talks between the two institutions representing each side across the Strait (SEF & ARATS), when there was joint acknowledgement of setting aside differences to seek common ground. This is a historical fact. The second element is the existing Republic of China constitutional order. The third element pertains to the outcomes of over twenty years of negotiations and interactions across the Strait. And the fourth relates to the democratic principle and prevalent will of the people of Taiwan.

  • 5. Diplomatic and Global Issues

 The fifth area for the new government to take up is to fulfill our duty as a citizen of the world and contribute towards diplomatic and global issues. We will bring Taiwan closer to the world, and the world closer to Taiwan. With us here today are many heads of state and delegations.

 I would like to thank them for their longstanding assistance to Taiwan and for giving us the opportunity to participate in the international community. Going forward, through governmental interactions, business investment and people-to-people collaborations, we will continue to share Taiwan’s experience in economic development and build lasting partnerships with our allies.

 Taiwan has been a model citizen in global civil society. Since our democratization, we have persisted in upholding the universal values of peace, freedom, democracy and human rights. It is with this spirit that we join the alliance of shared values and concerns for global issues. We will continue to deepen our relationships with friendly democracies including the United States, Japan and Europe to advance multifaceted cooperation on the basis of shared values.

 We will proactively participate in international economic and trade cooperation and rule-making, steadfastly defend the global economic order, and integrate into important regional trade and commercial architecture. We will also not be absent on the prevention of global warming and climate change.

 We will create within the Executive Yuan an office for energy and carbon-reduction. We will regularly review goals for cutting greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the agreement negotiated at the COP21 meeting in Paris. Together with friendly nations we will safeguard a sustainable earth.

 At the same time, the new government will support and participate in international cooperation on emerging global issues including humanitarian aid, medical assistance, disease prevention and research, anti-terrorism cooperation and jointly tackling transnational crime. Taiwan will be an indispensable partner for the international community.

  • Conclusion

 From the first direct Presidential Election in 1996 to today, exactly 20 years have gone by. Thanks to two decades of hard work by successive governments and civil society, we have overcome many obstacles that emerging democracies must confront. Throughout this process, we have had many touching moments and stories. But like other countries, we have also experienced anxiety, unease, contradictions and conflict.

 We have witnessed confrontation within society; confrontation between progressive and conservative forces, between pro-environment and pro-development views, and between political ideologies. These confrontations have sparked the energy for mobilization during election seasons. But also because of these dichotomies, our democracy gradually lost its ability to solve problems.

 Democracy is a process. In every era, those who work in politics must recognize clearly the responsibilities they shoulder. Democracy can move forward, but it can also fall backwards. Standing here today, I want to say to everyone: for us, falling backwards is not an option.

 The new government’s duty is to move Taiwan’s democracy forward to the next stage: before, democracy was about winning or losing the election. Now, democracy is about the welfare of the people. Before, democracy was a showdown between two opposing values. Now, democracy is a conversation between many diverse values.

 To build a “united democracy” that is not hijacked by ideology; to build an “efficient democracy” that responds to the problems of society and economy; to build a “pragmatic democracy” that takes care of the people – this is the significance of the new era.

 As long as we believe, the new era will arrive. As long as our leaders have unwavering faith, the new era will be born in the hands of our generation. Dear fellow Taiwanese, this speech is coming to a close, but reforms are just about to start. From this moment on, the weight of the country rests upon the new government. It is my duty for you all to see this country change.

 History will remember this courageous generation. This country’s prosperity, dignity, unity, confidence and justice all bear the marks of our struggle. History will remember our courage. It will remember that in the year 2016, we took this country in a new direction. Everyone on this land can be proud of having participated in changing Taiwan.

 In the earlier performance, I was really touched by a verse in the lyrics of a song:

 

“Today is the day, my brave fellow Taiwanese.”

 Dear fellow citizens, dear 23 million people of Taiwan: the wait is over. Today is the day. Today, tomorrow, and on every day to come, we shall all vow to be a Taiwanese who safeguards democracy, freedom, and this country.

 Thank you.

 Full Text of Speech Focus Taiwan

 Photo: CSIS via flickr

News Roundup December 2015

At RG21 we cover a number of topics throughout the year that we feel are of interest to our Asian and world readers. As these stories are ongoing, we can not always cover developments as they happen in a weekly blog. So from time to time we will give a short roundup of current topics with links to news and official sources.

Taiwan Elections 2016: We have been following the Taiwan elections in 2015 rather closely. At this time it seems that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will win big and Tsai Ing-wen will become president. The question is how badly will the KMT be defeated, and what will the post election direction be for Taiwan, especially in its relations to the People’s Republic. Tsai has indicated that there will be not much change in the status quo vis-a-vis the PRC, but the spring of 2016 will begin to give us some indication of how this plays out.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taiwan-presidential-candidates-clash-china-debate-35961982

North Korea: 2015 has been a rather “quiet” year for the DPRK and its supreme leader Kim Jung-un. Kim declined to attend celebrations to mark the 70th anniversary of WWII and observers speculate that he did not feel free to travel abroad despite his continuing tightening of his hold on the levers of power. Kim’s all-girl pop group made it as far as Beijing, but then returned without performing. The year ended with one of his chief advisors perishing in a mysterious automobile crash in the closing days of the year.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/north-koreas-top-official-on-south-korea-relations-dies-in-car-accident-1451445874

South China Sea: This year saw a tense standoff between China and the U.S. over the South China Sea. The U.S. claims that it has the right to navigate the South China Sea freely while China maintains that its sovereignty is at stake. A U.S. Navy ship sailed through the area without incident, and China protested. This situation shows no signs of abating in 2016, and apparently China has no intention to stop its “island building” and the U.S. has no intention of adhering to China’s claims on its claimed territory in the area.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/china-blasts-the-us-over-serious-military-provocation-in-taiwan-a6783556.html

Hi-Tech: The big news in mid-December was the purchase of the South China Morning Post (SCMP) by Internet giant Alibaba. Jack Ma’s company (which has experienced some turbulence this year) paid in excess of $200 million for the Post. This move follows Amazon’s recent acquisition of the Washington Post. The question now is how will a China-based corporation influence news coverage by the SCMP. What changes, if any, will become apparent in 2016 under the new Hangzhou-based management?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/14/chinese-internet-giant-alibaba-buys-south-china-morning-post-for-266m

Photo: Korea Net via flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/koreanet/23574365105/in/datetaken/

 

 

Taiwan 2016: Election Results VS Results of the Election

                                   by David Parmer

As for the January 2016 Taiwan national elections, (presidential and legislative) what is interesting will not be the election results, but rather the results of the election. The election results seem pretty much a given: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Tsai Ing-wen will win by a comfortable majority. Kuomintang (KMT) party Chair Eric Chu will finish a respectable second (which is why he was brought in to replace Hung Hsiu-chu, who was headed into the black hole of ignominious defeat, dragging the KMT with her) and People First Party’s James Soong will get the crumbs. Those will be the election results and should come as no surprise to anyone. The big question is what will be the results of the election?

Presumptive winner Tsai has said in effect that she won’t rock the boat regarding cross-strait ties. And that is good news as far as Washington and Beijing are concerned. Perhaps there will be some social legislation and domestic restructuring. The China Post reported on September 6, 2015 that the Tsai proposes using defense spending budget to promote local industries, and that she argues the government should do more for infrastructure projects to promote employment. Specifically this would include upgrading IT, green technology and industries related to people’s daily lives. In foreign policy Tsai is said to focus on Taiwan’s traditional ties with the USA, and might become friendlier with Japan.

Three real questions remain however:

1) How will Beijing react to a DPP victory in the presidential and legislative elections? Will there be “business as usual” as there has been with the KMT, or will there be a cooling down and heating up of cross strait ties?

2) Once the DPP was won, they will become “the establishment.” How will the student movement deal with the new administration? Will the DPP get a pass from the younger generation, or will it have to prove itself by actions?

3) What does the shift toward a “Taiwan Identity” mean? Reports suggest that many people see their identity as Taiwanese and not Chinese. How will 3) affect 1) and 2) above?

Please log in and give us your thoughts on the Taiwan elections 2016.

 Photo: DPP Facebook Page

 

Taiwan Elections—The Candidate Who Was

                                by David Parmer

Well, it seems it’s a done deal: Taiwan’s KMT Candidate Hung Hsiu-chu is history. The party has asked her to step aside due to her poor showing in the ongoing race for president in the January 2016 elections against the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen.

Hung reportedly was asked by KMT Chairman Eric Chu to step down but refused. The plan now seems to replace the fiery Hung with party chairman and New Taipei mayor Chu. The KMT might still face a loss in the January elections, but not the landslide that would occur if Hung remained as its presidential candidate. In a report published on October 9, Want China Times reported that the ruling KMT offered Hung an apology on October 8, admitting that she had been ill-treated, and called for a meeting with Hung to offer their formal apology.

The 2016 Taiwan elections are really important for a number of reasons, and most have to do with the island’s relations with and status regarding the People’s Republic just across the Taiwan Strait. In the past all parties have been willing to kick the can down the road regarding the status of Taiwan. This has been going on since the re-opening of ties between the U.S. and PRC. But now Mr. Xi Jinping, speaking for his government, has gone on record as saying that this can not go on forever.

As for the upcoming election, it seems that nobody will be completely satisfied—perhaps that is the nature of politics. The PRC will not stand for any hint of Taiwan Independence, and many on Taiwan feel the KMT is too friendly with the mainland to the detriment of the local people and local economy. So what is the answer? Maybe the least bad option: Eric Chu, the KMT and the status quo.

In just over 90 days we will have an answer to this question. Do you have anything to add to the discussion? Please let us know your thoughts.

Update: Want China Times reported on October 12, 2015 that Taiwan’s Koumintang Party will hold a special party congress in Taipei on October 17, 2015 to select a new candidate to replace Ms. Hung.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

China – Taiwan Relations: Iceberg Ahead!

201504100013t0001.jpg                                                       (Photo: Focus Taiwan News)

                                                        by David Parmer

It is 2015 and a woman is running for president. Not in the US, but in Taiwan.The Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Chair, Tsai Ing-wen has declared herself a candidate for president in the coming 2016 elections. This will be her second run for president. She also ran in 2012, but was defeated by Taiwan’s current president, Ma Ying-jeou.

 Voters gave the DPP a resounding victory in local elections in autumn 2014, and Taiwan’s President Ma stepped down as KMT party president to take responsibility for the poor showing.

 It looks like the voters will again hand the KMT a defeat, this time in the 2016 general election for President, Vice-President and Legislative Yuan. Current KMT president and mayor of New Taipei City, Eric Chu, has said that he is not going to run in 2016. If the chances of winning are as slim as they look, maybe Mr. Chu does not want to damage his political reputation by being beaten in a lopsided presidential election. 

 If Tsai Ing-wen does become president, and the DPP gets the landslide victory that many anticipate, then cross strait relations with the People’s Republic will take a new direction. 

 The Wall Street Journal reported ( April 15, 2015) that Tsai has already said relations with the PRC will remain unchanged and the status quo will be respected.

 But. The DPP has made its position quite clear. In 2007 it called for a separate identity for Taiwan. What’s more, the party considers Taiwan independence a fact, and rejects the one-China principle. On its website, the DPP describes itself as favoring a “balanced international perspective” “Taiwan-centric identity” and “strong progressive values.”

 Tsai’s statement favoring the status quo regarding cross strait relations may not satisfy anyone. The DPP is the DPP and Taiwan uniting with the mainland does not seem to be part of their DNA.

Could this issue be the one chance that the KMT has to narrow the odds in the 2016 election, or even win the election? Many have benefited from the warmer relations between the PRC and Taiwan during the Ma years, in a sense they have a real vested interest in their own “status quo”, that is, improved economic and social relations with the mainland.

And. Then there is the coalition of students and independent  groups that made up the Sunflower Movement of 2014 that occupied the Legislative Yuan. Their complaint was with the KMT and its cross strait trade policy, but even if the DPP wins in 2016, will the younger generation be satisfied with “business as usual” or “business as usual 1.1 DPP style”?

 Finally. In the world of politics, where pragmatism often trumps principles, perhaps an “accommodation” could be reached between the PRC and DPP  favoring the status quo and business as usual.

Except. That there is a metaphorical iceberg in the Taiwan Strait, and that is Taiwan Independence. Sooner or later action must be taken to deal with the issue. And each party has a radically different solution to the problem.