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World’s Toughest Job? Johnny Chiang Takes Helm at Taiwan KMT.

On March 9, 2020 Johnny Chiang took office as the new president of Taiwan’s KMT party. (Some might say “China’s KMT”…) Many observers feel that the relatively youthful Chiang, 48, has a rough road ahead. Chiang won a decisive victory over his rival Hua Ling-pin by collecting 68.8% of the vote in a low-turnout KMT election. Chiang immediately promised to reform and revitalize the venerable KMT. He promised to do this in terms of party culture as well structure. There was also talk of a more de-centralized or localized KMT.

What makes his job difficult is not just the stodgy image of the KMT and its membership, but also the fact that over 50% of the population consider themselves “Taiwanese” and not Chinese. Despite Beijing’s slow but steady chipping away at Taiwan’s diplomatic alliances, many young people see Taiwan as already an independent country. Polls show that just about 4% of Taiwanese consider their island part of China.

All of this makes the KMT’s historically pro-Beijing KMT party line a difficult sell to both to younger people as well as to a majority of the Taiwanese. Chiang’s promises of reform and restructuring may indeed succeed, and the KMT may re-invent itself as a leaner, more modern and robust opposition party.

However, the “panda in the room” is the 1992 Consensus and the One-China policy. From the beginning Mr. Chiang has said that in the short term there will be no announcement on the 1992 Consensus and that a committee will decide. His deft dodging of the question harks back to that master politician himself, Deng Xio-ping, who essentially did the same thing decades before when discussing the fate of Taiwan.

With local elections coming in 2022 and presidential elections again in 2024, the KMT will really have to answer the “one China/ 1992 Consensus” question if it is to have any chance of gaining legislative seats or indeed the presidency itself. What might happen is that the KMT drops its historically pro-Beijing posture and gets closer to the DPP’s position on China. This will get them more votes domestically, but then both parties will have to face the displeasure of the CCP.

Just as Mr. Chiang had won decisively this time, incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen’s Democratic Progressive Party had captured the presidency in the January 2020 elections. After a recent election defeat, Tsai Ing-wen had to step down as DPP party head, and it appeared that the KMT would be resurgent in 2020 and that she would be out. But thanks to the unrest and demonstrations in Hong Kong in 2019, Tsai’s fortunes were reversed and she kept a decisive hold on the presidency.

Here we are in 2020 and now it is being said that Johnnie Chiang and the KMT have little chance to gain power. At this point it might seem true, but if Mr. Chiang sets to work with a purpose, all things may very well change in the coming elections. Fate and the Taiwan voters have a way of making things like that happen.

photo: wikimedia commons

Taiwan Elections 2020–A Done Deal?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

January 11, 2020 is Election Day in Taiwan. Voters will be choosing both a president and a number of legislators in Saturday’s election. Will there be any surprises in the election? All indications seem to indicate that there will not be any surprises.

Most bettors would probably put their money on incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen to be re-elected and to defeat her opponents: KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu and People’s First Party James Soong Chu-yu. Barring some last-minute catastrophic change or event, Tsai will get another 4 years. What will be interesting to see is if the opposition parties gain legislative seats or even a significant number of seats.

President Tasi’s first four years have been unremarkable. Perhaps stability in a tense situation is what she brings to the Taiwan-PRC equation.Tsai’s DPP suffered legislative defeat in 2019 and Tsai resigned as party head to take responsibility. What might have followed was a resurgence of the KMT and the DPP being swept away were it not for the social unrest in Hong Kong. Tsai’s long-standing rejection of Beijing’s One Country, Two Systems offer may have a strong resonance among Taiwan voters looking west.

Cross-Strait relations are always in the forefront when considering Taiwan and the PRC. Relations warmed up under KMT President Ma Jing-yeou but immediately cooled when the DPP took over. At present Beijing has barred individual travel to Taiwan, thus damping the tourist industry and eliminating valuable cash inflow. Also, at the same time, President Tsai has had some success in luring Taiwanese companies home to Taiwan.

Improved ties and a melding of the two Taiwan and Mainland economies would be an attractive outcome for Beijing. For cultural and economic reasons the two entities would draw closer. A virtually seamless economy might make One Country, Two Systems more palatable to many people in Taiwan. In addition this would negate the necessity of a costly military option that would bring negative outcomes to all parties involved.

Some reports say that President Tsai and the DPP might be working on improving these cross-Strait relations, and this has stolen some thunder from Han Ku-yu’s program. However, as long as the DPP and President Tsai do not reaffirm the “1992 Consensus” and the “Once China” policy, it is likely that there will be little significant warming of relations between Taiwan and the PRC.

In the beginning of 2020 China has its hands full with the situation in Hong Kong and its public relations fail in convincing the world of what it describes as its fair treatment of its Uighur population. So it is unlikely that Beijing will ratchet up tensions with Taiwan (barring the crossing of the reddest of red lines, i.e. a declaration of Taiwan independence) in the short term, and that it will be pretty much “business as usual” in Taiwan in 2020 following the election of January 11.

Photo: National Renewable Energy Lab via flickr

News Roundup December 2015

At RG21 we cover a number of topics throughout the year that we feel are of interest to our Asian and world readers. As these stories are ongoing, we can not always cover developments as they happen in a weekly blog. So from time to time we will give a short roundup of current topics with links to news and official sources.

Taiwan Elections 2016: We have been following the Taiwan elections in 2015 rather closely. At this time it seems that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will win big and Tsai Ing-wen will become president. The question is how badly will the KMT be defeated, and what will the post election direction be for Taiwan, especially in its relations to the People’s Republic. Tsai has indicated that there will be not much change in the status quo vis-a-vis the PRC, but the spring of 2016 will begin to give us some indication of how this plays out.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taiwan-presidential-candidates-clash-china-debate-35961982

North Korea: 2015 has been a rather “quiet” year for the DPRK and its supreme leader Kim Jung-un. Kim declined to attend celebrations to mark the 70th anniversary of WWII and observers speculate that he did not feel free to travel abroad despite his continuing tightening of his hold on the levers of power. Kim’s all-girl pop group made it as far as Beijing, but then returned without performing. The year ended with one of his chief advisors perishing in a mysterious automobile crash in the closing days of the year.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/north-koreas-top-official-on-south-korea-relations-dies-in-car-accident-1451445874

South China Sea: This year saw a tense standoff between China and the U.S. over the South China Sea. The U.S. claims that it has the right to navigate the South China Sea freely while China maintains that its sovereignty is at stake. A U.S. Navy ship sailed through the area without incident, and China protested. This situation shows no signs of abating in 2016, and apparently China has no intention to stop its “island building” and the U.S. has no intention of adhering to China’s claims on its claimed territory in the area.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/china-blasts-the-us-over-serious-military-provocation-in-taiwan-a6783556.html

Hi-Tech: The big news in mid-December was the purchase of the South China Morning Post (SCMP) by Internet giant Alibaba. Jack Ma’s company (which has experienced some turbulence this year) paid in excess of $200 million for the Post. This move follows Amazon’s recent acquisition of the Washington Post. The question now is how will a China-based corporation influence news coverage by the SCMP. What changes, if any, will become apparent in 2016 under the new Hangzhou-based management?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/14/chinese-internet-giant-alibaba-buys-south-china-morning-post-for-266m

Photo: Korea Net via flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/koreanet/23574365105/in/datetaken/

Taiwan 2016: Election Results VS Results of the Election

by David Parmer

As for the January 2016 Taiwan national elections, (presidential and legislative) what is interesting will not be the election results, but rather the results of the election. The election results seem pretty much a given: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Tsai Ing-wen will win by a comfortable majority. Kuomintang (KMT) party Chair Eric Chu will finish a respectable second (which is why he was brought in to replace Hung Hsiu-chu, who was headed into the black hole of ignominious defeat, dragging the KMT with her) and People First Party’s James Soong will get the crumbs. Those will be the election results and should come as no surprise to anyone. The big question is what will be the results of the election?

Presumptive winner Tsai has said in effect that she won’t rock the boat regarding cross-strait ties. And that is good news as far as Washington and Beijing are concerned. Perhaps there will be some social legislation and domestic restructuring. The China Post reported on September 6, 2015 that the Tsai proposes using defense spending budget to promote local industries, and that she argues the government should do more for infrastructure projects to promote employment. Specifically this would include upgrading IT, green technology and industries related to people’s daily lives. In foreign policy Tsai is said to focus on Taiwan’s traditional ties with the USA, and might become friendlier with Japan.

Three real questions remain however:

1) How will Beijing react to a DPP victory in the presidential and legislative elections? Will there be “business as usual” as there has been with the KMT, or will there be a cooling down and heating up of cross strait ties?

2) Once the DPP was won, they will become “the establishment.” How will the student movement deal with the new administration? Will the DPP get a pass from the younger generation, or will it have to prove itself by actions?

3) What does the shift toward a “Taiwan Identity” mean? Reports suggest that many people see their identity as Taiwanese and not Chinese. How will 3) affect 1) and 2) above?

Please log in and give us your thoughts on the Taiwan elections 2016.

Photo: DPP Facebook Page

Ma-Xi Meeting, What’s Up?

by David Parmer

Republic of China President Ma Ying-jeou will meet PRC President Xi Jinping on November 7, 2015 in Singapore. The schedule includes a short meeting followed by dinner. “Historic” is certainly appropriate to describe this meeting, as heads of the two governments have not met since the Nationalists (KMT) fled to Taiwan in 1949.

But what is the purpose of the sudden meeting? Reuters reported that President Ma said that the meeting is about normalizing future relations and helping reduce hostilities in the short term, but it is not about the January 2016 Taiwan elections.

All things being equal, the KMT will chalk up a loss to the opposition Democratic Progressive Party in the 2016 elections. It looks like it will not be a question of a loss, but rather how big a loss. The KMT apparently realized this and dumped its candidate Hung Hsiu-chu so that it did not suffer a humiliating defeat. Party chair and New Taiwan Mayor Eric Chu has stepped up as the KMT’s presidential candidate.

One reason the KMT is so unpopular is that many see it getting too cozy with the PRC to the detriment of Taiwan’s political and economic interests. So why the meeting? How can the meeting possibly help the KMT in the short run?

Please log in an give us your thoughts on this issue.

Taiwan Elections—The Candidate Who Was

by David Parmer

Well, it seems it’s a done deal: Taiwan’s KMT Candidate Hung Hsiu-chu is history. The party has asked her to step aside due to her poor showing in the ongoing race for president in the January 2016 elections against the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen.

Hung reportedly was asked by KMT Chairman Eric Chu to step down but refused. The plan now seems to replace the fiery Hung with party chairman and New Taipei mayor Chu. The KMT might still face a loss in the January elections, but not the landslide that would occur if Hung remained as its presidential candidate. In a report published on October 9, Want China Times reported that the ruling KMT offered Hung an apology on October 8, admitting that she had been ill-treated, and called for a meeting with Hung to offer their formal apology.

The 2016 Taiwan elections are really important for a number of reasons, and most have to do with the island’s relations with and status regarding the People’s Republic just across the Taiwan Strait. In the past all parties have been willing to kick the can down the road regarding the status of Taiwan. This has been going on since the re-opening of ties between the U.S. and PRC. But now Mr. Xi Jinping, speaking for his government, has gone on record as saying that this can not go on forever.

As for the upcoming election, it seems that nobody will be completely satisfied—perhaps that is the nature of politics. The PRC will not stand for any hint of Taiwan Independence, and many on Taiwan feel the KMT is too friendly with the mainland to the detriment of the local people and local economy. So what is the answer? Maybe the least bad option: Eric Chu, the KMT and the status quo.

In just over 90 days we will have an answer to this question. Do you have anything to add to the discussion? Please let us know your thoughts.

Update: Want China Times reported on October 12, 2015 that Taiwan’s Koumintang Party will hold a special party congress in Taipei on October 17, 2015 to select a new candidate to replace Ms. Hung.