At RG21 we cover a number of topics throughout the year that we feel are of interest to our Asian and world readers. As these stories are ongoing, we can not always cover developments as they happen in a weekly blog. So from time to time we will give a short roundup of current topics with links to news and official sources.
Taiwan Elections 2016: We have been following the Taiwan elections in 2015 rather closely. At this time it seems that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will win big and Tsai Ing-wen will become president. The question is how badly will the KMT be defeated, and what will the post election direction be for Taiwan, especially in its relations to the People’s Republic. Tsai has indicated that there will be not much change in the status quo vis-a-vis the PRC, but the spring of 2016 will begin to give us some indication of how this plays out.
North Korea: 2015 has been a rather “quiet” year for the DPRK and its supreme leader Kim Jung-un. Kim declined to attend celebrations to mark the 70th anniversary of WWII and observers speculate that he did not feel free to travel abroad despite his continuing tightening of his hold on the levers of power. Kim’s all-girl pop group made it as far as Beijing, but then returned without performing. The year ended with one of his chief advisors perishing in a mysterious automobile crash in the closing days of the year.
South China Sea: This year saw a tense standoff between China and the U.S. over the South China Sea. The U.S. claims that it has the right to navigate the South China Sea freely while China maintains that its sovereignty is at stake. A U.S. Navy ship sailed through the area without incident, and China protested. This situation shows no signs of abating in 2016, and apparently China has no intention to stop its “island building” and the U.S. has no intention of adhering to China’s claims on its claimed territory in the area.
Hi-Tech: The big news in mid-December was the purchase of the South China Morning Post (SCMP) by Internet giant Alibaba. Jack Ma’s company (which has experienced some turbulence this year) paid in excess of $200 million for the Post. This move follows Amazon’s recent acquisition of the Washington Post. The question now is how will a China-based corporation influence news coverage by the SCMP. What changes, if any, will become apparent in 2016 under the new Hangzhou-based management?
For the past two years RG-21 has reported on Russian President Putin’s activities during the year and attempted to draw some conclusions about his ups and downs, and see where he stood at year’s end. This year, again, we will do the same, focusing on his annual year-end press conference in Moscow on Dec. 17th.
Overall it appears that Mr. Putin had a pretty good 2015. He has dealt with a number of issues including falling energy prices, Ukraine, and NATO on his doorstep and a shoot-down of one of his aircraft by NATO member Turkey. His biggest gamble has been to step up military support and put Russian boots on the ground in Syria. He has his own reasons for doing this, including quashing jihad in Syria before jihad comes home to bite him in Russia. Also with his muscling his way into the Middle East comes the fact that he and Russia must now be considered major players in the Middle East conflict.
Attached below is a full English transcript of Mr. Putin’s annual press conference where you can get his exact words on the situation in Russia and the challenges that he sees Russia facing.
Finally, what do you think about Mr. Putin’s year, his policies and future developments in the Middle East in the light of Russia’s inevitable presence and influence in the region?
Malaysia’s relatively small but well equipped military forces face a number of tough challenges at present and in the near future. The country’s armed forces consist of the Malaysian Army, Royal Malaysian Navy and Royal Malaysian Air Force. Numbering around 100,000 active personnel (unlike its neighbor, Singapore, Malaysia has no compulsory military service) the country’s forces have to be prepared to deal with:
Piracy
Smuggling
Kidnapping
Trespass
Terrorism
The MOD has a budget of around $4.0 billion which is estimated to be 1.5% of GDP. The Diplomat reported in October 2015 that budget for 2016 would be cut by 2.25% compared with the 2015 budget. While a relatively modest reduction, it can not be good news for military planners faced with the threats listed above.
Malaysia has a hodge-podge of Special Operations Forces, and it seems each service and branch has its own SOF unit. A centralized structure to coordinate efforts, or a reorganization seem to be possible solutions to increase efficiency and effectiveness.
Malaysia has been a member of the Five Power Defense Agreement for 40 years. Other members include Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and the UK. Recently Malaysia has joined the US coalition against ISIS, and there are reports of Malaysia sending CT experts to aid the Australian Government. Malaysia’s strong suit is counter-messaging; exposing the fabrications and mis-information of radical Islamic organizations such as ISIS to dissuade potential recruits, particularly young people, from joining.
Historically, Malaysia has actively supported United Nations peacekeeping efforts. Malaysian forces have been deployed to the Iran/Iraq border, Namibia, Western Sahara, Angola, Liberia, Somalia and Mozambique. Malaysia has also been involved in counter-insurgency actions in what is called the First Emergency (1948-1960), in the Sarawak Communist Insurgency, and in the Indonesia-Malaysia confrontation.
The autumn of 2015 saw repeated warnings of possible domestic suicide attacks. At the same time, the actions of Philippine Abu Sayyaf fighters in eastern Sabah in carrying out kidnappings have resulted in travel warnings to tourists by both the UK and Australian governments.
Malaysians live in an increasingly-dangerous neighborhood, and it seems that a combination of both self-sufficiency and international cooperation will allow their armed forces to continue to keep them safe.
There was a lot of celebration at the closing of the COP21 meeting in Paris on 12 December 2015. An agreement was reached among almost 200 countries on moving forward in dealing with climate change. Most observers are happy that there is a deal, imperfect though it seems. The attendees agreed to:
Find new renewable energy and shift from fossil fuels
Report greenhouse gases every 5 years
Supply $100B/yearly to developing countries by 2020
And while the agreement is not legally binding, major industrial powers like the US, India and China have committed with the other participants to the 1.5°C target by 2020. Meanwhile, small island states like Kiribati and the Maldives have real concerns that rising water levels associated with global warming will make their countries uninhabitable. Also, while fossil fuel produces have been put under the spotlight, the Paris agreement has not focused on the responsibility bore by major fossil fuel users like aviation, shipping and agriculture.
So for this week’s question, we would like to know what you think about the COP21 deal in Paris, and what do you think it will take to bring about the 1.5°C target agreed on at the meeting? Please log in and give us your thoughts.
On December 6, 2015 at 8:00PM President Barack Obama addressed the American people on the San Bernardino shootings and defeating ISIL. (Full text below)
Good evening. On Wednesday, 14 Americans were killed as they came together to celebrate the holidays. They were taken from family and friends who loved them deeply. They were white and black; Latino and Asian; immigrants and American-born; moms and dads; daughters and sons. Each of them served their fellow citizens and all of them were part of our American family.
Tonight, I want to talk with you about this tragedy, the broader threat of terrorism, and how we can keep our country safe.
The FBI is still gathering the facts about what happened in San Bernardino, but here is what we know. The victims were brutally murdered and injured by one of their coworkers and his wife. So far, we have no evidence that the killers were directed by a terrorist organization overseas, or that they were part of a broader conspiracy here at home. But it is clear that the two of them had gone down the dark path of radicalization, embracing a perverted interpretation of Islam that calls for war against America and the West. They had stockpiled assault weapons, ammunition, and pipe bombs. So this was an act of terrorism, designed to kill innocent people.
Our nation has been at war with terrorists since al Qaeda killed nearly 3,000 Americans on 9/11. In the process, we’ve hardened our defenses — from airports to financial centers, to other critical infrastructure. Intelligence and law enforcement agencies have disrupted countless plots here and overseas, and worked around the clock to keep us safe. Our military and counterterrorism professionals have relentlessly pursued terrorist networks overseas — disrupting safe havens in several different countries, killing Osama bin Laden, and decimating al Qaeda’s leadership.
Over the last few years, however, the terrorist threat has evolved into a new phase. As we’ve become better at preventing complex, multifaceted attacks like 9/11, terrorists turned to less complicated acts of violence like the mass shootings that are all too common in our society. It is this type of attack that we saw at Fort Hood in 2009; in Chattanooga earlier this year; and now in San Bernardino. And as groups like ISIL grew stronger amidst the chaos of war in Iraq and then Syria, and as the Internet erases the distance between countries, we see growing efforts by terrorists to poison the minds of people like the Boston Marathon bombers and the San Bernardino killers.
For seven years, I’ve confronted this evolving threat each morning in my intelligence briefing. And since the day I took this office, I’ve authorized U.S. forces to take out terrorists abroad precisely because I know how real the danger is. As Commander-in-Chief, I have no greater responsibility than the security of the American people. As a father to two young daughters who are the most precious part of my life, I know that we see ourselves with friends and coworkers at a holiday party like the one in San Bernardino. I know we see our kids in the faces of the young people killed in Paris. And I know that after so much war, many Americans are asking whether we are confronted by a cancer that has no immediate cure.
Well, here’s what I want you to know: The threat from terrorism is real, but we will overcome it. We will destroy ISIL and any other organization that tries to harm us. Our success won’t depend on tough talk, or abandoning our values, or giving into fear. That’s what groups like ISIL are hoping for. Instead, we will prevail by being strong and smart, resilient and relentless, and by drawing upon every aspect of American power.
Here’s how. First, our military will continue to hunt down terrorist plotters in any country where it is necessary. In Iraq and Syria, airstrikes are taking out ISIL leaders, heavy weapons, oil tankers, infrastructure. And since the attacks in Paris, our closest allies — including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom — have ramped up their contributions to our military campaign, which will help us accelerate our effort to destroy ISIL.
Second, we will continue to provide training and equipment to tens of thousands of Iraqi and Syrian forces fighting ISIL on the ground so that we take away their safe havens. In both countries, we’re deploying Special Operations Forces who can accelerate that offensive. We’ve stepped up this effort since the attacks in Paris, and we’ll continue to invest more in approaches that are working on the ground.
Third, we’re working with friends and allies to stop ISIL’s operations — to disrupt plots, cut off their financing, and prevent them from recruiting more fighters. Since the attacks in Paris, we’ve surged intelligence-sharing with our European allies. We’re working with Turkey to seal its border with Syria. And we are cooperating with Muslim-majority countries — and with our Muslim communities here at home — to counter the vicious ideology that ISIL promotes online.
Fourth, with American leadership, the international community has begun to establish a process — and timeline — to pursue ceasefires and a political resolution to the Syrian war. Doing so will allow the Syrian people and every country, including our allies, but also countries like Russia, to focus on the common goal of destroying ISIL — a group that threatens us all.
This is our strategy to destroy ISIL. It is designed and supported by our military commanders and counterterrorism experts, together with 65 countries that have joined an American-led coalition. And we constantly examine our strategy to determine when additional steps are needed to get the job done. That’s why I’ve ordered the Departments of State and Homeland Security to review the visa program under which the female terrorist in San Bernardino originally came to this country. And that’s why I will urge high-tech and law enforcement leaders to make it harder for terrorists to use technology to escape from justice.
Now, here at home, we have to work together to address the challenge. There are several steps that Congress should take right away.
To begin with, Congress should act to make sure no one on a no-fly list is able to buy a gun. What could possibly be the argument for allowing a terrorist suspect to buy a semi-automatic weapon? This is a matter of national security.
We also need to make it harder for people to buy powerful assault weapons like the ones that were used in San Bernardino. I know there are some who reject any gun safety measures. But the fact is that our intelligence and law enforcement agencies — no matter how effective they are — cannot identify every would-be mass shooter, whether that individual is motivated by ISIL or some other hateful ideology. What we can do — and must do — is make it harder for them to kill.
Next, we should put in place stronger screening for those who come to America without a visa so that we can take a hard look at whether they’ve traveled to warzones. And we’re working with members of both parties in Congress to do exactly that.
Finally, if Congress believes, as I do, that we are at war with ISIL, it should go ahead and vote to authorize the continued use of military force against these terrorists. For over a year, I have ordered our military to take thousands of airstrikes against ISIL targets. I think it’s time for Congress to vote to demonstrate that the American people are united, and committed, to this fight.
My fellow Americans, these are the steps that we can take together to defeat the terrorist threat. Let me now say a word about what we should not do.
We should not be drawn once more into a long and costly ground war in Iraq or Syria. That’s what groups like ISIL want. They know they can’t defeat us on the battlefield. ISIL fighters were part of the insurgency that we faced in Iraq. But they also know that if we occupy foreign lands, they can maintain insurgencies for years, killing thousands of our troops, draining our resources, and using our presence to draw new recruits.
The strategy that we are using now — airstrikes, Special Forces, and working with local forces who are fighting to regain control of their own country — that is how we’ll achieve a more sustainable victory. And it won’t require us sending a new generation of Americans overseas to fight and die for another decade on foreign soil.
Here’s what else we cannot do. We cannot turn against one another by letting this fight be defined as a war between America and Islam. That, too, is what groups like ISIL want. ISIL does not speak for Islam. They are thugs and killers, part of a cult of death, and they account for a tiny fraction of more than a billion Muslims around the world — including millions of patriotic Muslim Americans who reject their hateful ideology. Moreover, the vast majority of terrorist victims around the world are Muslim. If we’re to succeed in defeating terrorism we must enlist Muslim communities as some of our strongest allies, rather than push them away through suspicion and hate.
That does not mean denying the fact that an extremist ideology has spread within some Muslim communities. This is a real problem that Muslims must confront, without excuse. Muslim leaders here and around the globe have to continue working with us to decisively and unequivocally reject the hateful ideology that groups like ISIL and al Qaeda promote; to speak out against not just acts of violence, but also those interpretations of Islam that are incompatible with the values of religious tolerance, mutual respect, and human dignity.
But just as it is the responsibility of Muslims around the world to root out misguided ideas that lead to radicalization, it is the responsibility of all Americans — of every faith — to reject discrimination. It is our responsibility to reject religious tests on who we admit into this country. It’s our responsibility to reject proposals that Muslim Americans should somehow be treated differently. Because when we travel down that road, we lose. That kind of divisiveness, that betrayal of our values plays into the hands of groups like ISIL. Muslim Americans are our friends and our neighbors, our co-workers, our sports heroes — and, yes, they are our men and women in uniform who are willing to die in defense of our country. We have to remember that. My fellow Americans, I am confident we will succeed in this mission because we are on the right side of history. We were founded upon a belief in human dignity — that no matter who you are, or where you come from, or what you look like, or what religion you practice, you are equal in the eyes of God and equal in the eyes of the law.
Even in this political season, even as we properly debate what steps I and future Presidents must take to keep our country safe, let’s make sure we never forget what makes us exceptional.
Let’s not forget that freedom is more powerful than fear;
that we have always met challenges — whether war or depression, natural disasters or terrorist attacks — by coming together around our common ideals as one nation, as one people. So long as we stay true to that tradition, I have no doubt America will prevail.
Thank you. God bless you, and may God bless the United States of America.
Well if plastic tourism, where visitors move like sheep through phony destinations, is not your thing, and the existence of a yet another Starbucks Coffee shop causes you to see red, and you consider yourself a “traveler” and not a “tourist” then maybe your next trip should to the heart of the Silk Road in Uzbekistan. All reports suggest that Uzbekistan will not disappoint you.
The country of 28 million people (60% rural) seems to have the same growing pains as its Central Asian neighbors in making its transition from Soviet-style society to 21st century democracy. The country faces problems such as human rights, economic stagnation and the question of presidential succession. Its government is described by many in the West as authoritarian.
Having said that, Uzbekistan, has a lot going for it, and like its neighbors has the prospect of a bright future. Natural resources include gas, coal oil and gold. Moreover, Uzbekistan is one of the largest cotton produces in the world. Potentially, the tourist industry could be its biggest long term money maker.The richness of its history and the beauty of the architecture in Tashkent, Samarkand and Bukhara and other cities are matched by few places on Earth.
Travel writers enthuse about Uzbekistan; can’t say enough great things. (see below) The biggest criticism seems to be about government bureaucracy, particularly in the area of entering and departing the country. The Uzbek people are described as warm and friendly, the climate welcoming and the scenery both natural and man-made, as breathtaking. So for your next, non-plastic vacation this might be just the place—and no Starbucks there. Yet.
Djibouti is a postage-stamp sized country on the Horn of Africa. Location seems to be the former French colony’s only gift from on high. But what a location! Djibouti sits smack between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.The prime seafront location that informs it would make you think of Singapore, but seafront location is where the similarity ends. Djibouti is an arid country with few natural resources, little industry and 60% unemployment and has been linked to human trafficking. No regional banking and IT center here.
The Horn of Africa (Map: Wikiwand)
In Djibouti they speak Arabic and French as you might surmise. The Population is 60% of Somali extraction and 35% Afar, and it is 94% Muslim, again no surprise. Its population (75%) is mainly urban, the rest being nomadic. Reports suggest that the country suffers from a water shortage, desertification and very little arable farmland.
Is there a bright spot here? Back to location. Djibouti has a service economy. It is a transshipment port handling its neighbors, imports and exports. It is also a fueling center where international shipping can obtain and store fuel.
And? There are military bases in Djibouti. France has a presence here and the U.S. has Camp Lemonnier, from which it reportedly flies drones over the troubled and very active region and keeps track of terrorists. France? OK. the US? OK. Anybody else?. Yes indeed. China.
On November 26, 2015 the Chinese Ministry of National Defense announced the setting up of a logistics facility in Djibouti to enable Chinese anti-piracy forces in the Gulf of Aden to refuel and replenish supplies. China calls this “support facilities,” but the Western press has been quick to call it China’s first oversees base. Of course China has diplomatic representation in the region, and commercial interests, but this is the first non-diplomatic PRC government facility (except UN operations) outside of China. A “base” for which China will pay $100 million for a ten year lease. The U.S. has reportedly paid $60 million for a similar but longer arrangement.
This facility will also enable China to provide some overwatch and rescue capabilities for its nationals and commercial interests as well as protect shipping.
Here the relevant part of the transcript (pertaining to the Djibouti facility) of the press conference held on November 26, 2015 at China’s Ministry of National Defense.The briefing officer is Colonel Wu Qian.
Q: It is learned that China will set up a logistics base in the African country of Djibouti. Can you confirm this and will it be China’s first military base overseas?
A: China and Djibouti enjoy traditional friendship. In recent years, friendly cooperative relations between the two countries have been constantly developing with pragmatic cooperation carried out in many areas. What needs to be pointed out is that maintaining regional peace and stability is in the interests of all countries and is also the common aspiration of the people of China and Djibouti and the world at large. China is willing and obliged to make more contributions in this regard.
Based on relevant UN resolutions, China has sent more than 60 naval ships in 21 batches to perform escort missions in the Gulf of Aden and waters off Somali coast. The Chinese naval escort ships have encountered a lot of difficulties such as personnel recuperation, and food and POL replenishment during performing escort missions. It is indeed necessary to have effective and near-the-site logistical support.
China and Djibouti are having discussions on setting up support facilities in Djibouti. Such facilities will ensure better support for the Chinese military in carrying out UN peacekeeping operations, escort missions in the Gulf of Aden and waters off the Somali coast, as well as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations. It will play a positive role for the Chinese military to effectively fulfill its international obligations and maintain international and regional peace and stability.
And finally, here is a link to the New York Times article on China’s first overseas “base.”
As for the January 2016 Taiwan national elections, (presidential and legislative) what is interesting will not be the election results, but rather the results of the election. The election results seem pretty much a given: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Tsai Ing-wen will win by a comfortable majority. Kuomintang (KMT) party Chair Eric Chu will finish a respectable second (which is why he was brought in to replace Hung Hsiu-chu, who was headed into the black hole of ignominious defeat, dragging the KMT with her) and People First Party’s James Soong will get the crumbs. Those will be the election results and should come as no surprise to anyone. The big question is what will be the results of the election?
Presumptive winner Tsai has said in effect that she won’t rock the boat regarding cross-strait ties. And that is good news as far as Washington and Beijing are concerned. Perhaps there will be some social legislation and domestic restructuring. The China Post reported on September 6, 2015 that the Tsai proposes using defense spending budget to promote local industries, and that she argues the government should do more for infrastructure projects to promote employment. Specifically this would include upgrading IT, green technology and industries related to people’s daily lives. In foreign policy Tsai is said to focus on Taiwan’s traditional ties with the USA, and might become friendlier with Japan.
Three real questions remain however:
1) How will Beijing react to a DPP victory in the presidential and legislative elections? Will there be “business as usual” as there has been with the KMT, or will there be a cooling down and heating up of cross strait ties?
2) Once the DPP was won, they will become “the establishment.” How will the student movement deal with the new administration? Will the DPP get a pass from the younger generation, or will it have to prove itself by actions?
3) What does the shift toward a “Taiwan Identity” mean? Reports suggest that many people see their identity as Taiwanese and not Chinese. How will 3) affect 1) and 2) above?
Please log in and give us your thoughts on the Taiwan elections 2016.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov both made statements on the Paris terror attacks before attending an international meeting on Syria.
Vienna, Austria
November 14, 2015
SECRETARY KERRY: We talked, first of all, about the events in Paris, which follow on events in Beirut and events in Iraq. And we are in absolute and total agreement that these kinds of attacks are the most vile, horrendous, outrageous, unacceptable acts on the planet; that under any category – we don’t know who did it, but they are acts of terror. So we are witnessing a kind of medieval and modern fascism at the same time, which has no regard for life, which seeks to destroy and create chaos and disorder and fear.
And the one thing we can say to those people is that what they do in this is stiffen our resolve – all of us – to fight back, to hold people accountable, and to stand up for rule of law, which is exactly what we are here to do. And if they’ve done anything, they have encouraged us today to do even harder work to make progress and to help resolve the crises that we face.
So our hearts go out to the people of Paris, to the French, to people of other countries who lost their lives last night in this atrocious attack, and we intend to do everything in our power not just to stand with the French, but to stand with all people of decency who know this is wrong, this is evil, and we need to stand up against it.
FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV: I fully subscribe to what John just said. The president of the Russian Federation expressed his solidarity with the French people, our outrage at what happened in Paris, and let’s not forget that there were terrorist attacks taking innocent lives in Beirut and in Iraq in the last few days. I think we have to strongly reiterate that there will be no tolerance vis-a-vis terrorists.
And just like there is no justification for terrorist acts, which is the position of the Security Council, I believe, as John said, there will be no justification for us not doing much more to defeat ISIL, al-Nusrah, and the like. And I hope that this meeting as well would allow us to move forward.
MR KIRBY: Thank you.
SECRETARY KERRY: Thank you all very much. Thank you, sir.
The terrorist attacks in Paris on 13 November 2015 that claimed the lives of 129 people and injured 352 more will certainly have a lot of far reaching consequences. Security in the French capital will be tightened even more across the board, particularly for the December 2015 climate summit in Paris. Average people in France and around the world will certainly move and act with more caution in their daily lives.
One result that could very well occur is a pan-Europe right wing backlash. As reported here on September 23, 2015, (http://rg21.jp/?p=2202) in countries from the Baltic to the Aegean, European right-wing parties are on the rise. Non-stop south-to-north immigration has fueled the increase in sympathy and membership. And the Paris attacks, especially with allegations that terrorists used the current wave of immigration to gain access to Europe, will only strengthen the appeal of Europe’s right.
Mainstream media seems to be asleep to the possibility of a backlash, and will probably only wake up when the right has won elections in one or two European capitals.
So, will Europe move to the right in 2016 and beyond? Please log in and give us your opinion.