作者別: RG21管理者

                            Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Photo: RIA Novosty)

                            by David Parmer

If all goes well, the beginning of the 21st century will be remembered as the beginning of the rise of Kazakhstan to world power. Kazakhstan could easily become another Singapore; it has many of the same elements that worked in favor of making that country a world-class success including an extremely favorable location, political stability and a multi-ethnic society.

 And now, history seems to favor this Central Asian country. China has proposed a New Silk Road and has allocated funds for its promotion. New rail traffic will flow through Kazakhstan making it the crossroads of the resurgence of the region.

Moreover, where Singapore is blessed by its location, Kazakhstan, in addition to location, is blessed with petrochemical and mineral wealth.  The world’s ninth largest country is also blessed with abundant nature. It has rivers, mountains  and plains of breathtaking beauty that are an incredible asset for its tourism industry.  Kazakhstan will host Expo 2017 with the theme “Future Energy” and welcome visitors from around the world. As for political stability, Kazakhstan’s President, Nursultan Nazarbayev has just been re-elected for a fifth term, so politically one can expect “business as usual.”

                         Almaty Oblast Kazakhstan (aboutkazakhstan.com)

 

The plus side of the equation looks pretty good, but what about the minus side? There are several issues that confront Kazakhstan in this century.

The  U. S. government lists some of them as:

• National identity
• Islamic revival
• Expanding resources and exporting
• Political and social reform

 Of these, perhaps the first two are the most salient. The country has a slightly higher percentage of Kazaks to Russians, the two main ethnic groups in the country.

The challenges for the 21st century are avoiding the dangers of Russian nationalism and separatism and Islamic extremism. Kazakhstan has only been independent since 1991, a very short time on the calendar of history. Can the people of Kazakhstan forge a national identity that supersedes ethnic and religious differences?

With a strong national identity, Kazakhstan can withstand the give and take of national politics and remain united, and at the same time enjoy its good fortune in terms of resources and geographical location. Kazakhstan is indeed at a crossroads, and time will tell which road it takes into this century and beyond.

                                    Astana, Kazakhstan by Night ( Photo: aboutkazakhstan.com)

 

 

    Xi Jinping The Governance of China (Photo: english.cri.cn)

                           by David Parmer

The  unambiguous answer to the above questions can be found in Mr. Xi’s book, The Governance of China. Released in September 2014, the book’s 18 chapters contain speeches, interviews and correspondence by China’s president, who also holds the posts of General Secretary of the CCP and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.

 Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China has headed in a new direction in Reform and Opening Up. President Xi tells us what he is thinking and where he is going in light of these developments.

Topics covered by Mr. Xi include:

• Socialism with Chinese Characteristics
• The Chinese Dream
• All-round and Deeper-level Reform
• Economic Development
• Rule of Law
• Culturally Advanced China
• Social Undertakings
• Ecological Progress
• National Defense
• “One Country, Two Systems”
• Peaceful Development
• New Model of Major-Country Relations
• Neighborhood Diplomacy
• Cooperation with Developing Countries
• Multilateral Relations
• Close Ties with the People
• Combat Corruption
• The CPC Leadership

The immense value of Mr. Xi’s book is that he spells out the Chinese position in a succinct and easily-understandable manner. Pick a topic and you will find China’s position and Mr. Xi’s thinking stated clearly:

 On Taiwan:

 “…the most important and most fundamental thing to do is to maintain China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Although the mainland and Taiwan are yet to be reunited, they belong to one and the same China which is an indivisible whole.” (Handle Cross-Straits Relations in the Overall Interests of the Chinese Nation)

 On The Chinese Dream:

“In my opinion, achieving the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has been the greatest dream of the Chinese people since the advent of modern times.” (Achieving Rejuvenation Is the Dream of the Chinese People)

On the Environment:

 “Our Party raised a requirement to build a beautiful China at its 18th National Congress. The whole of society should enhance its ecological awareness and strengthen environmental protection in accordance with this requirement so as to build China into a country with a good environment.” ( A Better Environment for a Beautiful China)

On the Military:

 “Our officers and soldiers will maintain an indomitable revolutionary sprit and be dauntless in combat. We will make every effort to combat corruption and promote integrity in the armed forces. Senior officers must take a clear-cut stand against corruption and set an example in abiding by the code of honest conduct.” (Build up Our National Defense and Armed Forces)

 Those interested in understanding China in the 21st century will find The Governance of China a readable and easily-understandable roadmap. One may agree or disagree with the direction  in which China is heading, but one can not claim ignorance when it is all there in Xi Jinping’s book, The Governance of China.

Sichuan’s Min River is the largest and longest of the Yangtze tributaries: it flows 735 km before it joins the mighty Yangtze at Yibin. (Photo: Wikimedia)

                                     by David Parmer

These days a whole series of dams are being built along the Min River to feed China’s incessant hunger for power, to prevent floods and to provide irrigation for agriculture. But long before these dams were even a dream, there was one engineering project that has stood the test of time and still serves the people of Sichuan, and that is the Dujiangyan Irrigation System.

 The Dujiangyan Irrigation System is the oldest no-dam irrigation system in the world. It was built during the Qin dynasty in 256BC by the  provincial governor and engineer whose name has come down to us through history: Li Bing. Governor Li saw the dangers of flooding and the need for irrigation and began to plan an ingenious three-part irrigation system to tame the waters and provide the needed flow for irrigation. The tunnel through Mt. Yulei to the Sichuan plain took eight years to complete. Li Bing’s engineering feat not only prevented floods but also greatly contributed to the long term prosperity of the region.

 In 2000, the Dujiangyan Irrigation System and adjacent Taoist sites on Mount Qingcheng were declared  UNESCO World Heritage sites. Dujiangyan and Mt. Qingcheng are about 60km northwest of Chegndu and accessible by train and bus.

 

 

                              (Illustration: China Discovery)

UNESCO World Heritage Site

http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1001

                                                  Teheran Grand Bazar (Wikimedia)

Last week’s (April 2, 2015) framework deal between the P5+1 nations (U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China + Germany) and Iran paves the way for Iran’s re-emergence into the world economy. Should a long-term agreement be made early next summer there would be the gradual lifting of international sanctions, particularly in banking, which would potentially energize and enrich Iran’s listless economy.

But would an influx of capital and free exports create major economic growth and prosperity for the country?

 While Iran has a vibrant private sector, in many ways it can be compared to China in the late 1970s prior to Reform and Opening Up. To begin with the state is very much in the economy, and many industries have yet to be privatized. Secondly, much like China’s People’s Liberation Army, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has its hands in a number of industries across the economy. To further complicate things, there are the Bonyad, or charitable trusts, which likewise are in all types of businesses, and are repeatedly criticized as bloated and inefficient.

With such a quagmire of economic retardants in place, would even a total lifting of sanctions and the influx of capital create a new golden age for Iran’s economy?

 On the plus side, Iran has a lot going for it. Number one is a young population. Estimates suggest that up to two-thirds of the population is under 30. ( Currently unemployment is high, and these young people who could drive a vibrant economy are going abroad creating a “brain drain” within Iran.) Iran has huge oil and gas reserves as well as the world’s second largest store of copper. Iran also has a substantial auto making industry and has the largest mobile phone market in the Middle East.

 The potential for a re-invigorated Iran is an attractive proposition. Iran’s self-interest could be aligned with that of its regional neighbors and world partners.

Critics hold that the new Iran would not necessarily be politically different.

One of the problems in the West is the habit of seeing Iran as a monolith, just as “Red China” was seen as a monolith in the 1960s.  The Wall Street Journal points out in an April 3 article that those in Iran making the nuclear deal in Switzerland are different from those making regional politics.

 So for Iran, will prosperity come soon, and how will prosperity look? These are the big questions. Will prosperity empower Iran’s young population and create a new political climate? Will Iran take the China road? Or will this chance be lost?  For the sake of the people in Iran, the region and the world, we hope not.

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/prospect-of-bolder-iran-unnerves-some-encourages-others-1428084595