Person of Interest: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden

4344892232_4ed9300da5.jpg                                      by David Parmer / Tokyo

 Throughout his career Joe Biden has been seen as the straight-talking Average Joe, the man of the people. (For years he took an ordinary Amtrak commuter train from his home in Delaware to his office in Washington.) Senator Biden and now Vice President Biden has often spoken his mind bluntly and frankly, and even mis-spoken. The gregarious Biden is often taken to task for his gaffes and faux pas, causing some to regard him solely as a very likeable Uncle Joe. But style is not the only thing Biden brings to the table. He has wide and varied political and international experience and personal relationships with leaders around the world.

 Joe Biden was born on November 20, 1942 at Scranton, in the heart of Pennsylvania’s coal country. In 1955 his family moved to the state of Delaware. He attended the University of Delaware and then went on to obtain a law degree at the University of Syracuse. After setting up a law office in Delaware and working in local politics he ran for the senate from Delaware and won against his Republican opponent. The 29-year-old Biden was one of the youngest senators in U.S. history. He worked on several powerful senate committees including the Foreign Relations Committee and the Senate Judiciary Committee. During his career Senator Biden worked on a variety of important issues including the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty with Russia, the admission of new NATO partners. With his wide experience he was early on considered a foreign policy expert.

In 1987 Senator Biden entered the race for president, but withdrew after a poor showing at the polls. In 2007, he again made another run for president with similar results. Then Senator Barack Obama asked him to be his running mate, and in 2008 Obama defeated Senator John McCain and was elected president. In 2010 Vice President worked on the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia. In 2012 President Obama and Vice President Biden were re-elected for another 4-year term.

During his time as Vice President Biden has not only advised the president, but used his immense experience and relationships in the Senate to further the Obama agenda. Now, as the Obama presidency winds down, the question is will Joe Biden make a third run at being president?

As of March 2015, he has not said “No.” But neither has he said that he is in the race. For the Democrats it depends whether former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will run or not. It appears that if she does then Biden will stay out of the race. But if she doesn’t run, then we might see Joe Biden run for a third time, and maybe just make it this time. Biden has a solid record and experience that not many can match. On the minus side is his age: he is about the same age as Ronald Regan was when he was president. And his straight speaking style might be used against him in the cut and thrust of partisan politics. In a New Yorker piece on Joe Biden by Evan Osnos, President Obama wonders if either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden want to put themselves through another presidential campaign. At this point the Average Joe is not saying, but it is clear that he and others are watching and waiting as the clock ticks down to 2016.

 Biden Biography White House:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/vice-president-biden

 New Yorker Article: The Biden Agenda

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/07/28/biden-agenda

Vice President Joe Biden and President Barack Obama (Photo: White House.gov)

 

Iran Nuclear Deal Still in the Works

kerry_geneva_iran_432_1.jpg                                U.S. and Iran Representatives To Nuclear Talks ( Gov.State)

The Iran nuclear talks are still ongoing with a deadline of March 24 fast approaching. The question is: will a deal be reached?  For everyone’s sake we hope so. These negotiations might be likened to the early treaties between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. at the height of the Cold War. The stakes are high for the world, not because of the kind of mutual destruction prevented by the arms limitation talks, but rather because of a not-to-be missed chance to bring Iran back into the community of nations. A strong and prosperous Iran can act as a stabilizing force in its neighborhood and legitimately and openly work with world partners for world peace. On the other hand, a further isolated Iran controlled by hard-liners is in no one’s interest. Please log in and give us your thoughts n this topic.

 

 

Hong Kong Basic Law – Article 45 is the Sticking Point

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                                                            (Photo: Hong Kong Gov.)

In June 2014 an unofficial poll was taken in Hong Kong on universal suffrage by non-governmental political groups.The BBC reported that about 20% of registered voters took part.The question of universal suffrage was raised, and this is directly linked with how the Hong Kong chief executive should be elected. The question of the election of the Chief Executive and universal suffrage are covered in Article 45 of the Basic Law.

Article 45

The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be selected by election or through consultations held locally and be appointed by the Central People’s Government.

The method for selecting the Chief Executive shall be specified in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures.

 But “the devil is in the details” and there is a fundamental disagreement between independent political groups, pro-Beijing groups and the Hong Kong government. The disagreement has to do mainly with the nominating process for Chief Executive.Those against the government position want universal suffrage and direct nomination of the Chief Executive.

The National People’s Congress (NPC) stated its position on the issue on August 31, 2014. The document advocated universal suffrage for the 2017 election and held that the nominating committee should decided on 2-3 candidates to be chosen by popular vote.(Link to document below)  As of March 2015 this position has not changed.  At the same time a referendum on this issue has been proposed by the opposition but vetoed by the Hong Kong government.

In the lead-up to the 2017 election, it looks as if the Beijing government, NPC and Hong Kong government will not budge on this issue. Nor are the various opposition groups likely to give up their demands. It is hard to tell now whether mass protests similar to last year’s Occupy Central will take place once schools are on summer holiday, or if more organized anti-demonstration activities will occur. Whatever the case, this issue will remain clearly in focus for the rest of this year and into next year.

The Basic Law, Full Text:

http://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/

NPC on Hong Kong Basic Law, August 31, 2014:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-08/31/c_133609238.htm

 

 

Does ASEAN Need U.S. Military Ties?

4666944-3x2-700x467.jpg   Indonesian Troops on Parade (Photo: ASEAN Update)

Should ASEAN nations look to their own collective defense, or should they work with the US to further ensure their safety and security?

The U.S. has made its so called “pivot to Asia” recently, focusing on an area that got less than full attention during the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts. What does the U.S. offer to the alliance, and how much cooperation should independent ASEAN nations have with Washington?  In today’s climate is there any neutrality, or must everyone take sides? Please log in and give us your thoughts.

 

ASEAN Defence Ministers to Meet in March 2015

20may14_nr.jpg.html.jpeg    ASEAN Def. Ministers Meeting 2014 ( Singapore.mindef)

The 9th ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting will be held in Langkawi, Malaysia from March 15-17, 2015. While this meeting is a highlight during Malaysia’s year as ASEAN chair, it is just one of a series of defence-related events planned for 2015 throughout the region.

The full calendar started in January with the ASEAN Defense Senior Officials’ Meeting Working Group, and will continue until the ADMM-Plus meeting in November.

 Meetings of Ministers, Senior Officials and Working Groups will take place throughout the year and in even in various parts of the world outside the geographical ASEAN region. Meetings will be held as far away as Japan, the U.S., Australia, China and Finland. 

A quick glance at the wide range of topics to be covered in this year’s meetings will give a clear picture of the challenges facing the region.

Topics include:

  • Maritime security and counterrorism
  • Disaster relief planning
  • Cooperation on illegal drugs
  • Counter-piracy and armed robbery in Asia
  • Defense industry cooperation
  • Wildlife trafficking in Asia
  • Humanitarian mine action

The ADDM meeting has been held since 2006, and its objectives include promoting regional peace and security, to promote mutual trust and confidence through greater understanding of defense challenges. (ADDM website).

2015 ADDM Schedule:

https://admm.asean.org/index.php/events/current-calendar-year.html 

 ASEAN-Closer Military Ties in 2015, The Diplomat:

http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/asean-eyes-closer-military-ties-in-2015

 

Beijing, February 1972—Nixon and Mao Make History

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                 Nixon-Mao Meeting Feb. 21, 1972 Beijing 

                             by David Parmer

 This week we celebrate the 43rd anniversary of “the week that changed the world.” After much diplomatic back and forth with secret meetings and negotiations, U.S. President Richard M. Nixon, his wife Pat Nixon, U.S. Secretary of State William Rodgers, National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger and accompanying staff landed in Beijing on February 21, 1973. Films show President Nixon striding up to Premier Zhou Enlai and extending his hand in friendship. A delegation of Chinese officials and an honor guard were on hand to meet him, a band played the national anthems of both countries, and the U.S. party was whisked away to their guest quarters on a cold and sunny early spring day.

Nixon-Zhou Tarmac.jpg                       The Nixon-Zhou Handshake  

Premier Zhou Enlai accompanied the Americans to their quarters and took his leave. Then the unexpected happened. In a short time, Zhou was back and had a message for Dr. Kissinger: Chairman Mao Zedong would see the President-now. No meeting had been scheduled with the ailing Chairman, and there was no telling when another opportunity would arise. President Nixon and his advisors hastened to Mao’s villa where a meeting was held in his library/study. 

 The conversation was recorded for the American side by Winston Lord, assistant to Dr. Kissinger. (A link to the transcript at the Nixon library is posted below.) The meeting is described by Dr. Kissinger in his book, On China, and by Mr. Lord in an article on the website of the Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training,( also linked below.) Lord’s transcript is invaluable: although we can read his reminiscences as well as Dr. Kissinger’s, the transcript lets us become a “virtual participant” at this world-changing meeting.

Dr. Kissinger and others describe Chairman Mao as a philosopher maintaining the high ground. (And the word is used a lot in the transcript.) You could also see him as a Tai Chi player; he feints, he flows, he retreats, and he off-balances his opponent. President Nixon is more of a tough middleweight boxer; he has his chin down, elbows close to the ribs, guard up ready to punch, but Mao is nowhere to be found. The President says: “The Chairman’s moved a nation and changed the world.” The Chairman replies famously: ” I haven’t been able to change it. I’ve only been able to change a few places in the vicinity of Peking.”  Nixon lays out substantive issues, and Mao feints and says we will leave that to these people, meaning Kissinger and Zhou. Nixon thinks its time for somkin’ and jokin’ and Mao lays Lin Biao and the Russians on him. It is pretty much Chairman Mao’s show from beginning to end. The Good Old Boy from Hunan VS the Earnest Quaker from Yorba Linda. It’s no match.

 While this might be an amusing metaphor regarding the dynamics of the meeting, in the short and long run both parties came away from the meeting winners. Chairman Mao had publicly given his blessing to the President’s visit, and this meeting was widely reported by the Chinese and U.S. media. It was a bold step for both leaders, and both knew there were elements in their countries who were against it.

What followed days later was the Shanghai Communique, then  later the re-establishment of US-China relations, and finally the re-emergence of China during the Deng years. Indeed, President Nixon’s trip to China is an event worth celebrating and remembering, even 43 years later.

 Transcript of The Meeting  (Nixon Library):

http://www.nixonlibrary.gov/forkids/Chinadocs/Memo%20of%20Convo-%20Monday,%20February%2021,%201972-%202.50%20p.m%20-%203.55%20p.m.pdf

 Winston Lord remembers the Nixon-Mao Meeting:

http://adst.org/2013/02/nixon-goes-to-china/

Photos:

Top:  China.org.cn

Lower: Embassy of PRC

The Venue for the 1972 Shanghai Communique

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                                           Jin Jiang Grosvenor House

                                                 by David Parmer/Tokyo

After his historic meeting with Chairman Mao Zedong, and sightseeing in North China, President Richard M. Nixon returned to Shanghai to continue meetings with Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai. On February 28, 1972 as the capstone of the trip and meetings, a joint statement by the U.S and PRC, the Shanghai Communiqué, was issued.

 The venue for this meeting was Shanghai’s classic JinJiang Hotel. The hotel is located on Maoming Road in the former French Concession across the street from the former French Club.

The hotel complex is an oasis of green with over 10,000 square meters of gardens, and in many ways resembles  a university campus. The hotel’s four buildings include the Cathay Building, commissioned by property magnate Sir Victor Sassoon (1929) the Grosvner House (1935) and the new south building, now the Cathay Garden (1965). On the Maoming Road side is the three-story Jun Ling Building which houses offices and of course the Jin Jiang Grand Hall where the Shanghai Communiqué was signed.

Jin Jiang Grand Hall.jpg                                                       Jin Jiang Grand Hall

This four star hotel has hosted a long list of foreign dignitaries and heads of state and is one of Shanghai’s finest. It still preserves a sense of Shanghai’s long and colorful history.

 

 Jin Jiang Hotel VIPs And Heads of State: 

http://jj.jinjianghotels.com/portal/jinjiang_en/jjhistory.aspx?did=477&catalogId=83

 RG 21 report and full text here:

http://research-group21.com/admin/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&blog_id=2&id=131

 

Is Japan the Best Place to Visit in 2015?

640px-Evening_Cool_at_Shijokawara_LACMA_M.2003.67.30.jpg                              Evening Cool At Shijokawara ( Hiroshige)

In 2015, if you said that Japan is the best tourist destination on Earth, you would have a strong case. For already in the first quarter of 2015 we have seen the cities of the world that were once dream vacation destinations become the sites of political unrest and acts of terrorism. Romantic Paris? Quaint Copenhagen? Historic London? It seems their days of popularity are severely compromised if not over to a great extent. And Japan? Safe, clean, and cool with low crime and affordable prices- if you know where to look. For tourists there are also Japanese products to consider-high quality, well designed and safe. Tradition culture and futuristic trends mix in Japan in 2015. So what do you think: is Japan really the best tourist destination for 2015. Please log in and let us know your thoughts.

China’s Military Power: Seeking Truth From Facts

                        by David Parmer

What is the truth about China’s People’s Liberation Army? Is it a major force to be constantly monitored and reckoned with or a “paper dragon” ? The answer really depends on the observer. Reports of China’s growing military power abound in the western press and have for years, and book after book warn of the Chinese military threat. Yet in late 2014 and early 2015 differing reports have emerged giving radically differing conclusions concerning China’s military. So what are the facts, and what is the truth? In this report we will take a look at three reports, one article and one Chinese response.

 The most recent report, titled China’s Incomplete Military Transformation-Assessing the Weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), was issued by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (Rand) on February 11, 2015. The purpose and scope of the report is laid out in its preface:

 This report assesses many of the weaknesses in the PLA’s human capital and organizational realms, in the PLA’s combat capabilities across various domains (land, sea, air, space, cyber, and electromagnetic), and in China’s defense research and industrial complex. It does so by examining how these weaknesses affect the PLA’s performance of missions Beijing tasks or may task the force to carry out and by reviewing Chinese assessments of the PLA’s shortcomings and their potential implications.  (Preface)

 The report goes on to define the term “weakness” and states that military weakness takes three forms:

  1. Inability to perform a mission
  2. High risk of mission failure
  3. Inefficiencies that degrade mission outcomes

 The first six chapters outline the perceived weaknesses of the PLA while chapter seven makes a summary and discusses the implications of the shortcomings noted in the report.

http://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/China’s%20Incomplete%20Military%20Transformation_2.11.15.pdf

 Another report issued early this year is The Military Balance 2015 prepared by The International Institute for Strategic Studies(IISS). This annual study looks at military developments in the current year by region. As for Asia, and specifically China, it notes Chinese military progress rather than shortcomings:

 China’s military procurement programme, supported by these budget increases, continues to attract attention. Following a flurry of new naval programmes, from the Liaoning carrier to destroyers, more are underway. Armament has also improved. The 60 frigates and destroyers in service in 2000 had less than 600 anti-ship and surface-to-air missile tubes between them; the current fleet has almost triple that number with only 20% more hulls. The November 2014 Zhuhai air show provided further insights into China’s military progress. Highlights of the show included the FC-31 combat-aircraft prototype, which might be intended for export, a large ramjet-powered supersonic anti-ship missile design, the CX-1, and a range of air-to-surface weapons being offered for use on UAVs.

(IISS Military Balance 2015 Press Statement)

 Meanwhile, Asian states with ambitious naval programmes have prioritised the development of aviation-capable platforms and marinised fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft. In 2012, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) conducted flight trials of J-15 combat aircraft on its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning. The carrier sailed on exercises in December 2013, accompanied by escorts and support vessels, highlighting China’s efforts to develop a carrier battle group. There are reports that China is building a second carrier. Alongside the continuing development and construction of other major surface combatants, notably the Type-052D destroyer and the reported Type-55 cruiser programme, these projects showcased China’s growing investment in maritime power-projection capabilities.

(IISS Military Balance 2015 Chapter 6:Asia)

https://www.iiss.org/en/publications/military-s-balance

 

In its annual report to congress in 2014, (Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2014)  the U.S. Defense Department noted China’s technical advancement, budget and expanding capabilities instead of its shortcomings. The report states:

 In 2013, China announced a 5.7 percent increase in its annual military budget to $119.5 billion, continuing more than two decades of sustained annual defense spending increases. China sustained its investments in strategic forces modernization, as well as key anti- access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities such as advanced intermediate- and medium-range conventional ballistic missiles, long-range land-attack and anti-ship cruise missiles, counter-space weapons, and offensive cyber capabilities. China’s military investments provide it with a growing ability to project power at increasingly longer ranges. In 2013, this included at-sea testing of China’s first aircraft carrier and continued development of fifth generation fighter aircraft.

A key point to note is the report’s assessment of China’s “growing ability to project power at increasingly longer ranges.”  This is at variance with the Rand report of February 2015 detailing a broad spectrum of weaknesses.

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2014_DoD_China_Report.pdf

In the defense blog War Is Boring, the authors take a tone much like the Rand report but focus on strategic rather than systemic weaknesses of the PLA. They cite a number of factors working against China’s military power, the chief of which is a lack of allies in its neighborhood.

Yes, the People’s Liberation Army is slowly becoming more technologically advanced. But that doesn’t mean Beijing can mobilize its armed forces for global missions. Unlike the world’s main expeditionary powers–the United States and the U.K., to name two–China is surrounded by potential enemies.

 The blog post also outlines PLA corruption, outdated equipment and China’s proximity to unstable regimes such as Pakistan, Afghanistan and North Korea as minus factors in its lack of strategic military advantage and strength.

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the-chinese-military-is-a-paper-dragon-8a12e8ef7edc

 Finally, how does Beijing and the PLA view these reports? (Specifically, the U.S. and British reports issued in February 2015). One reply worth noting was by Senior Captain Zhang Junshe, researcher at the naval Military Studies Research Institute published online. Zhang states:

 It appears difficult to grasp the latent purposes of the two seemingly contradictory reports from the US and Britain top think tanks. Why do the two western think tanks draw such contradictory conclusions for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), an army of objective existence?

In fact, the answer is obvious. The two reports published almost at the same time truly reflect the current fact that western countries don’t take an objective attitude toward China’s national defense construction and military development.

 Captain Zhang then goes on to state that many China-related reports in the west are for political purposes. He defends China’s defense budgets, and states that China’s military should be judged from “an objective, fair and rational perspective.”

 http://english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/2015-02/15/content_6357469.htm

Photo: UK Defence Images via flickr

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Prices: The Biggest Global Issue of 2015?

As of early February 2015, oil prices are around $50/barrel. Have prices hit bottom? Some analysts say prices might go all the way down to $20/barrel. Others say prices will rise to around $60/barrel by the end of this year. It seems nobody really knows. Experts seem to agree that a return to a price of $100/barrel is unlikely. There are factors upon factors that are influencing the roller coaster price rise and fall. Demand slacks, production decreases, discounting takes places, stocks are abundant. It is easy to consider watching the price fluctuation as observing capitalism in real time. Factored in to the oil price equation are the economies of countries like Russia, Indonesia, Iran and Venezuela. Low prices can have a deep impact on their economies. And Japan? Prices of heating oil and gasoline at the pump are down. But how long will this last? Is the fluctuating price of oil just an example of capitalism in real time as suggested, or is the price of oil potentially one of the biggest crises that will occur in 2015? Please log in and give us your opinion.

Photo: iiP via flickr