“Research Group 21” |

ASEAN Members Lineup : Brunei

Brunei (2).jpg

(Photo: Brunei Halal Industry Innovation Centre)

ASEAN member country Brunei, Darussalam (the Nation of Brunei, The Abode of Peace) is located on the north coast of the island of Borneo. It has a coastline on the South China sea and is surrounded by Sarawak Malaysia. Brunei is a former British protectorate which gained full independence on 1 January 1984. In the same week, on 7 January 1984, Brunei became a member of ASEAN.

Two things define Brunei Darussalam: religion and money. The official religion of Brunei is Islam and this year the country has moved to adopt a more strict form of Sharia law. Of interest is the recent development by the country of the Halal brand. The branding is an attempt to show prospective clients that the country’s products are produced and managed according to Islamic law. Brunei Darussalam is rich. Very rich. Its fortunes come from vast stores of petroleum and natural gas. International partners cooperate with the country in producing and exporting its products. Japan is one of its biggest customers for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). As a result of the resource wealth per capita income of its 400,000 plus population is high and many social services are provided by the government free or for a small charge. Brunei is a member of several international organizations including ASEAN, and the British Commonwealth. Brunei has close ties with both Singapore and Malaysia. There is still a British military presence in the country.

The country is governed by the absolute leader, Hassani Bolkiah, the 29th Sultan of Brunei. He has governed since 1967, lives in an 1800 room palace, reportedly has three wives, attended the British Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, is a collector of expensive cars and is worth $20 billion. The Sultan also holds several portfolios in the government.

The capital is Bandar Seri Begawan where the Brunei International Airport is located. Currency is the Brunei dollar (B$), but Singapore dollars are also used.

China Cooperates on Counter-Terrorism

China, like all major countries around the globe faces its share of 21st century terrorist threats. The threat to China is both local and global. Locally, China sees threats from its western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang. Internationally, Chinese interests are global with many situated on the African continent.

In 2001 China set up the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which is made up of six members: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The SCO was designed to deal with political, economic and military cooperation. SCO has held joint military exercises over the years called “Peace Missions.” The latest was held in the late summer of 2014 in Inner Mongolia. The purpose of these exercises was, and is, to counter the threats from separatism, extremism and terrorism. In recent years the exercises have been scaled back, but they still involve conventional military forces. Critics suggested that such forces were not suited to current terrorist threats, but events in the Middle East especially in Syria and northern Iraq suggest that conventional forces do indeed have a large role to play in counter-terrorism. SCO counter-terrorist cooperation seems robust and is likely to continue in the future.

While cooperation with its neighbors seems fairly straightforward, cooperation with the United States in a different matter. In July 2014, China and the U.S. agreed to increase cooperation on counter-terrorism. China Daily USA reported on July 17th, 2014 Chinese Vice Minister Cheng Guoping had met that week with U.S. ambassador-at-large Tina Kaidanow coordinator for terrorism at the State Department. Cheng was quoted as saying:

“Terrorism poses a direct threat to the United States, and China has also made fighting terrorist activities as a top priority for maintaining social stability,” So while increased cooperation is a good thing, the question is whether differences in the perception of what constitutes terrorism will ever be eliminated.

China sees its biggest domestic threat from Uighur Jihadists, namely the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). A series of railway station attacks to include bombing and knifings in Urumqi, Kunming and Guangzhou are clear evidence of terrorism from the Chinese point of view. Moreover, China accuses the US of having a “double standard” as far as terrorism is concerned in not condemning these attacks as terrorist acts. The U.S. has viewed China’s problems with its minorities as “human rights” issues, further alienating the Chinese side. China feels it has given the US its support in its counter-terrorism, but that reciprocity has not been forthcoming. So the July meetings are a good sign, a further step in the right direction.

China in the 21st century will have to continue to make alliances with friends and neighbors around the globe to deal with terrorism both locally and globally. And many countries will have to get used to having the Middle Kingdom as their new friend and ally in the battle.

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2014-07/17/content_17818028.htm

Hillary 2016!

(Photo: Xinhua)

by David Parmer

Hillary. In American politics, in 2014, that one word is enough. Google “Hill…” in Google News, and the first suggestion that you get will be: “Hillary Rodham Clinton.” The next general election is in 2016, but it looks as if the campaign has already begun. Like runners milling about the starting line of a marathon, stretching, getting hydrated and pacing around to burn off nervous energy, a list of potential candidates both Republican and Democrat are waiting for the starting gun of the 2016 election.

For the record, as of August 2014, Hillary says she has not decided whether to run or not. It is a clever tactic, for once she does declare, the race is on, and it doesn’t end until election day 2016. Now she has space to prepare and explore options without intense media scrutiny. (There is still plenty of scrutiny, just not at the white hot level it will be when she surely does announce her candidacy.) It seems, that, as for now, as the old saying goes, she is getting her ducks in order. Some of that ordering is thought to be learning from the mistakes she made in 2008 when she ran for the nomination against Barack Obama. And making sure they don’t happen again.

So maybe Hillary won’t run? Not a chance. A glance at Clinton’s career track from Girl Scout to Wellesley College to Yale Law to political staffer to high-powered attorney to First Lady of the U.S. to Senator to rival for the 2008 Democratic nomination to 67th Secretary of State of the United States, points to one thing: the Presidency.

Hillary Rodham Clinton, indeed, has an impressive track record. Starting out as a conservative Republican she has morphed into being a mainstream Democrat. Along the way she has consistently championed women’s and children’s rights. In foreign policy she has advocated “smart power ” a mix of hard and soft power that includes military, economic capabilities, alliances and partnerships. And while she was at State, she visited 112 countries the most of any secretary of state.

So when will Hillary “decide” ? Maybe early next year. Or maybe the race has already begun and she is ahead, out in front and heading for that goal line that she can see ever so clearly. The media seems to think so, and probably most Americans do too. Whatever the outcome, whether she runs for President or not, it is clear Hillary will do it on her terms.

Kurdistan’s Peshmerga–Key Players In A New Game

(Photo: Enno Lenze/flickr)

by David Parmer

News reports on 18 August 2014 report that Iraqi special forces together with Kurdish peshmerga and supported by U.S. and Iraqi air power have taken back the Mosul Dam from IS (Islamic State) fighters. The Mosul dam, located on the Tigris river, is a key objective in the fight with IS forces, as it supplies electric power to northern Iraq and its destruction would cause flooding and devastation to most of the country.

The question is, who are these peshmerga, and how do they fit into the puzzle that is the ever-changing face of the early 21st century middle east?

The peshmerga (“those who face death”) who have a reputation as fierce and disciplined fighters, are the soldiers of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurdish people (numbering around 25 million) have no independent homeland, but are scattered around the region from Iraq and Iran to Turkey and Syria. While organized Kurdish military have existed since the sundown of the Ottoman empire, it was not until December 1945 when Mustafa Barzani created the short-lived Mahabad Republic that the peshmerga came into being. These forces fought in the Kurd-Iraq war and in the rebellion against the central government. Finally in a Kurdish civil war the KDP, Kurdish Democratic Party fought with the PUK, Party for United Kurdistan until a U.S. brokered peace deal was put in place. During the U.S. Invasion of Iraq there was U.S.-Kurdish cooperation, and in 2003, the peshmerga joined U.S. Special Forces in defeating Saddam Hussein.

After Saddam’s downfall the Kurds were granted a semi-independent region in the new Iraq. The peshmerga remained intact under the new government, and continued to have a reputation for being an effective military force. Then in 2014, in a spillover from the Syrian war, ISIS, or the Islamic State as it is now called, started to seize territory in northern Iraq in a effort to establish an Islamic caliphate. Initially, IS forces were thought to be headed for Bagdad, but they attacked north instead taking territory and routing the Iraqi army, seizing abandoned heavy weapons and armor at the same time.

In August 2014 the peshmerga were pushed back, and it looked like key Kurdish territory would fall to the IS offensive. The U.S. acted relatively quickly. On 8 August 2014 President Obama ordered bombing of IS positions and targets and promised military support.

Numbers of us military personnel have been increased, and there are now an estimated 1,000 U.S. troops involved.

There was general surprise that the peshmerga had been pushed back so soundly by IS. Retreating in itself is not the end in warfare: commanders from George Washington to Mao Zedong have had to retreat time and again, and gone on to ultimate victory. But the temporary defeat seems to have tarnished the reputation of the peshmerga and given a wake-up call to all concerned.

In the August 2014 war, the peshmerga had to face battle-hardened IS forces, that were tough, committed and confident. The peshmerga were skilled in guerrilla warfare, but they faced the newly heavily-armed IS forces who fought a new type of semi-conventional fight. IS forces simply overwhelmed them.

In a blog post for the Washington Institute, Michael Knights cites several reasons for the poor Kurdish performance.

Poor positioning of forces
Kurd rivalry
Alienation of Sunni tribes
Inexperienced troops
Shortages of equipment and logistics

The upshot of the August action has been commitments from several nations to support the peshmerga. These include the U.S., and Britain, with reports of Iranian involvement as well. The peshmerga have, and are to receive weapons and logistical support as well as air support and intelligence.

The support seems to be working, and in the first major action, Iraqi and Kurdish forces have moved on the Mosul dam and driven out IS fighters. So for the present it looks like the Kurds will be the surrogates of many parties interested in seeing IS stopped, and will get all the support they need. The concern in the west is that a resurgent Kurdish military will further fuel hopes for an independent Kurdish homeland. But for the time being, in northern Iraq, the peshmerga are the only game in town.

Willing to face death: A history of Kurdish military forces

http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3203&context=etd

What Iraq’s Kurdish Peshmerga Really Need

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/what-iraqs-kurdish-peshmerga-really-need

50 Years Ago – The World in 1964

50 years–If you are young it is forever, if you are old, it’s just last week.

by David Parmer

In 1964 Japan hosted the Summer Olympics in Tokyo from October 10-24. If ever there was a symbolic meaning to the venue of the games, this was it. In Just 19 years from 1945, Japan had transformed herself from a defeated, bombed-out shell of a country into a world economic power, respected for its hi-tech products of unquestionable quality, whose names like Sony, Panasonic, Nikon, Toshiba and Honda were known worldwide. Domestically, the Japan National Railways (JNR) ran the Shinkansen or Bullet Train from Tokyo to Osaka. It was another amazing feat of post-war Japanese engineering and technology. Also, in 1964 Japanese citizens were again given the right to travel abroad, and travel they did in flag-following groups to all parts of the world.

In 1964, China too made its mark on the international stage. On October 16, 1964 China exploded its first 22 kiloton nuclear device in the Xinjiang region of western China. China thus became the fifth member of the nuclear club after the U.S., Soviet Union, Britain and France. The year saw China launch what might be called a foreign-relations offensive by establishing ties with a host of countries around the world. Premier Zhou Enlai travelled to Burma, Pakistan, Ceylon and several countries in Africa. The jewel in this particular crown was the normalization of ties and recognition of the PRC by France, the first western power to do so.

In the United States, Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater for the Presidency. In 1964, the United States faced three big issues: the Civil Rights Movement, the Space Race and The Cold War. On July 2, 1964 the Civil Rights Act was passed abolishing segregation. (In might be noted in passing that this was roughly 100 years after President Abraham Lincoln had issued the Emancipation proclamation freeing the slaves.) On November 28, 1964 the US launched Mariner 4, one of the first in a long series of Mars probes that continues even until today. The Space Race was an unofficial completion with the Soviet Union, which they led off by launching a basketball-sized satellite in 1958, and which would culminate with an American Moon landing in 1969. The Cold War with the Soviet Union took a new face in 1964 when Nikita Khrushchev was ousted and a collective leadership was put in place under Leonid Brezhnev. The following years came to be known as the Brezhnev Era, which was noted for its economic stagnation but significant military strengthening. On August 7, 1964 the US congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution giving the president war powers to deal with North Vietnam after an attack on a US naval vessel. The US also sent an additional 5,000 advisors to South Vietnam, bringing the number of Americans on the ground to 21,000.

Finally, in 1964, French writer John Paul Sartre won the Nobel Prize for Literature, and Martin Luther King won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Life On Mars? Not So Far Off.

Mars Curiosity Rover (Photo:NASA)

by David Parmer/Tokyo

In the latter part of this century, the most common life form on Mars will probably be humans from Asia-Pacific. These would be Chinese, Indians or Americans.

India now has a Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM), Mangalyaan, headed for Mars and scheduled to enter Mars orbit September 24, 2014. The Indian MOM is to be preceded by a NASA vehicle, Maven, that will enter orbit September 21, 2014. Mangalyaan was launched by the Indian Space Research Organisation in November 2013 on a shoestring budget of $75,000,000, attesting to Indian ingenuity and ability to “make do.”

Media reports see India’s space programs as space race with China similar to the U.S. vs. Russia space race of the 1960s. Evidence suggests that China is not interested in “racing” into space, but is taking a slow and steady approach, with the emphasis on “steady.” In an National Public Radio (NPR) broadcast in 2013, the director of the Chinese National Space Science Center, Wu Ji said that China, when it sends its Mars mission, will not duplicate the science that the U.S. and India do, but will rather set new scientific goals. The Chinese, buoyed by the success of the Chang’e 3 spacecraft and its rover Yutu on their lunar mission are now looking toward a 2020 Mars mission with a 2030 planetary samples mission. China’s first Mars mission, the Yinghuo -1 launched on November 9,2011 was a failure. However, failed Mars missions abound as the challenges are immense. So the failure of China’s first attempt was not unusual. What seems clear, however, is China’s long-terms national commitment to space exploration.

NASA has been in the vanguard of Mars exploration with a history of fly-by, orbiter and lander and robot programs. The Curiosity rover, which landed in 2012 has been a stunning success performing flawlessly and doing good scientific research, including finding what appears to be evidence of ancient streams. Evidence of water points to ancient life. All very exciting. NASA, like China, has its sights set on 2020 for its next rover mission. The 2020 mission, already well into the planning stages) will look for potential life on Mars, gather knowledge about the planet and demonstrate techniques for further exploration.

China-Japan Tourism Rebounds in 2014

China Tourists Japan.jpg (Photo: China Daily)

For the first half of 2014, the numbers tell a simple story: Chinese tourists are back. Back in Japan that is. Despite political squabbling over the Diayou/Senkaku islands and Chinese and Japanese defense buildups and posturing, Japan is again a hot destination for Chinese travelers.

Tensions aside, the Wall Street Journal reports at a recent survey indicates that 29% of Chinese rank Japan as their #1 destination. A China Daily report mentions that the number of tourists visiting Japan might return to the pre -2012 territorial-dispute level. Reasons given are eased visa restrictions and favorable exchange rates.

Going the other way, visitors from Japan to China in 2014 show a consistent, double-digit drop except for February and May, when the Chinese New Year and Japanese Golden Week are celebrated.

http://www.tourism.jp/en/statistics/

http://blogs.wsj.com/scene/2014/01/15/where-rich-chinese-tourists-are-traveling-in-2014/

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2014-03/03/content_17318237.htm

Asian Low Cost Carriers (LCC) Are Industry Game Changers

640px-9V-OTD_Boeing_777-212_ER_(cn_28510_90)_Scoot._(7791633944).jpg LCC Scoot Air Boeing 777-212 ER (Wikimedia)

by David Parmer / Tokyo

The Asian airline industry’s big story for 2014 will surely be the continued expansion of the Low Cost Carrier (LCC) segment of its business. CAPA Center for Aviation estimates the LCC fleet to be 1,000 aircraft at present with a staggering 1500 orders in place. Airbus and Boeing are bullish on the market estimating the need for 7,000 wide body aircraft and 20,000 narrow body aircraft in the next 20 years. Now there are 47 LCCs in the region, with another 10 expected to be launched in 2014. Orders for new aircraft are huge. Aviation Week reports that Lion Air has outstanding orders for 500 Airbus 320s and Boeing 737-800s. Air Asia has orders for 337 aircraft and Viet Jet has orders for 90 A320s. In general, LCCs buy the same type of plane to keep costs down. And fleets tend to be younger due to the presence of newer aircraft.

The expansion of LCC in the region is impressive. Airbus estimates that LCCs sell 25% of total seats across Southeast Asia. CNNs estimate is close to double that. LCCs share of seats in North Asia is estimated to be just 9%. Japan Airlines reportedly has no plans to acquire a stake in an LCC until there is what it sees as an inevitable shakeout in the market. Rumors of an open skies policy within ASEAN to be discussed in 2015 fuel visions of a one billion plus future passenger market.

But events on the ground point to the old truism that not ALL clouds have silver linings. Already there seems to be an adjustment in the volatile LCC market. And the dreaded “O” word is being spoken: oversupply. Reports are surfacing of aircraft orders being deferred and consolidation of carriers taking place. In the short term this may be the case, but as for the future, it looks like the shape of the airline industry will be dominated by the LCCs. Cheap and fast will most likely be the wave of the future for this part of the world.

North Korea’s Military – Laughable or Lethal?

N.Korea Uniforms.jpg (Photo: Army Recognition.com)

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Media reports on the DPRK military are often like the story of the blind men and the elephant. In the story each man grasps a different part of the beast and gives a different and wildly-divergent impression. The 2013 report by the U.S. Defense Department to Congress on North Korea gives an overall view that puts piecemeal reports by the press in a more understandable context.

The North Korean threat to the region is real, and it is an instrument of national policy. The raison d’être for DPRK forces are seen to be twofold; to keep the regime in power and to prevent any significant attack from the ROK, U.S. Japan or an expeditionary force made up of these three countries. At the same time, this capability enables the country to pursue a bellicose, contrarian and concession-extracting foreign policy.

North Korea fields a large, forward-deployed military that retains the capability to inflict serious damage on the ROK, despite significant resource shortfalls and aging hardware. (U.S. Dept. of Defense)

North Korean technology in conventional arms is far behind current world standards but effective. Aircraft date from the 1990s or earlier. While the DPRK has one of the world’s biggest submarine fleets, it along with the Navy (mostly a costal force) are seen as outdated technologically. Vintage Russian and Chinese designs are a big part of the defense mix. The DPRK has the 4th largest military in the world, with 70 submarines,13,000 artillery pieces and substantial armored and infantry units as well as its vintage air force. On paper this looks impressive, but the Pentagon cites serious shortcomings in the military machine of Kim Jong-un. Specifically:

Logistic shortages
Aging equipment
Lack of training

Despite these shortcomings, the threat from the north is credible. It starts with its artillery and rocket forces. Estimates suggest an artillery inventory of 13,000 pieces, many in hardened sites and targeting the territory south of the DMZ and Seoul itself. A second element in the threat is North Korean special forces (SOF). Other sources suggest that as many as 200,000 SOF personnel are on duty. These troops are seen as well equipped, highly motivated professionals capable of being inserted by land sea or air into the ROK to cause havoc and strike high-value targets such as air fields or command centers. Next comes the DPRK’s cyber warfare capability. In a cash-strapped national economy, cyber warfare can deliver a big return on investment. The Pentagon’s report suggests cyber attacks have already been launched on the south, with incidents of Denial of Service (DOS) attacks being attributed to the DPRK. And finally, the tip of Kim Jong-un’s spear is his rocket forces: short and long range missiles, less than sophisticated by world standards, but capable of getting the job done-i.e. threatening both his regional neighbors in China, ROK and Japan, but also the west coast of the United States. It seems that is only a matter of time before North Korea can perfect the launch and re-entry of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a high yield nuclear warhead.

Seen from the Pentagon’s report, the military machine of the DPRK is a well-planned and well thought out instrument of national policy using strategy and limited resources to confront better equipped, better supplied and better trained potential adversaries. And so far this strategy seems to be working just fine.

U.S. Department of Defense Report on North Korea 2013

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/North_Korea_Military_Power_Report_2013-2014.pdf

Asian Waters—The Mighty Mekong in Crisis

Mekong Floating Market Viet Nam (Wikimedia)

by David Parmer

There is an old saying, “You can’t step in the same river twice.” Rivers by their nature flow and can be seen as manifestations of change. The Chinese concept of the nature of the universe, the Tao, was probably derived from the observation of flowing water. So a river changing is nothing surprising. Sadly, it seems as though, against all hope, Asia’s mighty Mekong River may be on the verge of irreversible change that will negatively impact millions of people locally, and countless people globally.

The Mekong River, Asia’s 12th longest waterway makes its way from the Tibetan plateau through China’s tropical Yunan province and south into Burma where it forms the Burma-Laos border, onward south where it again forms a border, this time the Laos- Thailand border. It enters Cambodia and exits into Vietnam’s Mekong delta and finally empties into the South China Sea. It is 4300 km or 2600 miles long.

The river, which is often considered to be of two main sections: upper Mekong and lower Mekong, is rich in biodiversity. It is said to be second only to the Amazon in this regard, and is home to more than 1200 species of fishes and one species of fresh water dolphin as well as the giant catfish which can be 3m long and weigh up to 300kg. Seasonal variations in flow and rapids make navigation along the Mekong difficult, but a lively trade takes place along its length, and up to 2.5 million tons of fish are harvested from its waters each year.

In 1995 four of the six river stakeholders, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam set up the Mekong River Commission to foster river development and promote the livelihood of people along the river. China and Burma did not join the group, but are considered “dialogue partners.”

Left alone, or managed well, the river could sustain life for generations to come. Unfortunately, such does not seem to be the course of future events. The river is now under threat from a number of sources. World Wildlife Funds cites climate change, illegal wildlife trade, pollution, climate change and hydropower to be the main challenges. Of these, damming for electric power is the most potentially devastating because of its effects on local water levels and fish habitat.

Dams (Proposed and Existing) on the Lower Mekong

Dams have already affected the various river ecosystems, but the most troubling are the proposed dams in Laos, which aims to become “the battery of Southeast Asia” by selling electric power to its neighbors. Piecemeal and uncoordinated development along the length of this great waterway looks to be the course of future events, and will clearly not be in the long term interest of the people who make their living from the mighty Mekong.

International Rivers, Lower Mekong Factsheet: http://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/the-lower-mekong-dams-factsheet-text-7908

WWF, Greater Mekong: https://www.worldwildlife.org/places/greater-mekong