タグ: David Parmer RG21

Lake Chad Today–A Template for Tomorrow’s Conflicts And For Tomorrow’s Solutions.

               by David Parmer / Tokyo

A Model For Future Conflicts and Their Solution?

Central Africa’s Sahel region between the Sahara Desert and equatorial Africa might just hold the model for world conflicts in the second quarter of the 21st century and beyond. The geopolitical situation around Lake Chad with its environmental and social problems could very well be the first in a series of eviro-conflicts that beg for a simple solution, but are in fact a complex interweave of factors.

Causes of the Problem I: Water Use and Climate Change

Four countries border Lake Chad; Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria, but another four use the lake water. These include Algeria, Central African Republic, Libya, and Sudan. Lake Chad has, however, shrunk significantly since the 1970s. It has gone from an area of 20,000 KM2to an area of 2, 000 KM2  this been attributed to global warming or climate change and also to an increasing demand for water. Add to this an increase in population and the displacement of populations (up to 2.3 million people) due to the ongoing insurgency lead by Boko Haram, and the plot begins to thicken. A decrease in water has also created friction between herders and farmers, both stakeholders in the water use debate.

 Causes of the Problem II: Boko Haram Islamist Insurgency

 Since 2009 Boko Haram, a militant fundamentalist group, has been on the offensive in an attempt to establish an Islamist state in central Africa. Boko Haram has been designated as a terrorist group by Britain, the United States, New Zealand, and the United Nations. Forces from Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria have been working together for 8 years in an attempt to defeat Boko Haram. In one recent high-profile operation Boko Haram kidnapped 100 schoolgirls from a technical college in Dapachi bringing worldwide attention and concern to the problem. Many say there is no military solution to this insurgency, and therefore a political settlement is in order. Owing to the extreme positions of the organization and its promotion of strict Sharia law, it is no wonder that a solution has not been reached. Moreover, it is doubtful that a solution acceptable to all parties will ever be reached.

Solutions to the Problem I

 In September 2019 Nigeria, Niger and Chad agreed on a joint trans-border agro-ecosystem program designed to restore livelihoods and to restore the lake. The parties agreed on the occasion of a joint meeting in New Delhi dealing with desertification.

Solutions to the Problem II

One grand scheme to save the lake is the Transaqua Project that has gained financial commitment from both China and Italy. PowerChina has pledged a $1.8 million investment while Italy’s Bonifica has pledged $2.5 million. The project calls for the refilling of Lake Chad by bringing water from the River Congo in the Democratic Republic of Congo through a navigable canal 2400KM long to the Chari River and then to Lake Chad. Additional benefits of the project (in addition to saving the lake) would be water for agriculture, hydroelectric power for the region and rail and road transportation along the canal. This scheme was proposed decades ago but has now been dusted off and is gaining traction in the 21st century.

Solutions to the Problem III

Another plan calls for water to be pumped up from the Ubangi River over the mountains to the Chari River using solar power. The group behind this scheme is called The Solar Option. Benefits of The Solar Option include the fact that the equipment would come on line rapidly as opposed to the long timeline for the Transaqua project. Also the Solar Option requires no dams, and costs a projected 10% of the cost of the Transaqua.

Solutions to the Problem IV

To add further nuance to the problem/solution matrix of the Lake Chad situation we only have to consult a new report, building on the work of a previous G7 report, which is entitled Shoring up Stability, Addressing Climate and Fragility Risks in the Lake Chad Region. The findings of the report suggest that the popular belief that Lake Chad is continuing to shrink is not correct. The fluctuations in the water level are normal and ground water is stable while surface water has shrunk. The key finding of the report is that it is conflict and not climate change that is to blame in the Lake Chad situation. A number of social issues are what is fueling the problem not just the climate change factor, which is indeed important but not key when compared to the social and political causes of the situation.

Conclusion

 The problems and solutions relating to the ecological and social impacts on the Lake Chad region are varied. No single, simple solution will bring relief to the lake, to the region and to the displaced people who live there. A clear vision of the problem, and cooperation among stakeholders will be the only way forward in saving this wonderful lake and in saving the livelihoods of the people who inhabit this region and this vitally important part of Africa.

Photo: Lake Chad, Cameroon and Sahara from ISS. NASA via flickr

Photo: Lake Chad basin crisis via flickr

Taiwan Elections—The Candidate Who Was

                                by David Parmer

Well, it seems it’s a done deal: Taiwan’s KMT Candidate Hung Hsiu-chu is history. The party has asked her to step aside due to her poor showing in the ongoing race for president in the January 2016 elections against the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen.

Hung reportedly was asked by KMT Chairman Eric Chu to step down but refused. The plan now seems to replace the fiery Hung with party chairman and New Taipei mayor Chu. The KMT might still face a loss in the January elections, but not the landslide that would occur if Hung remained as its presidential candidate. In a report published on October 9, Want China Times reported that the ruling KMT offered Hung an apology on October 8, admitting that she had been ill-treated, and called for a meeting with Hung to offer their formal apology.

The 2016 Taiwan elections are really important for a number of reasons, and most have to do with the island’s relations with and status regarding the People’s Republic just across the Taiwan Strait. In the past all parties have been willing to kick the can down the road regarding the status of Taiwan. This has been going on since the re-opening of ties between the U.S. and PRC. But now Mr. Xi Jinping, speaking for his government, has gone on record as saying that this can not go on forever.

As for the upcoming election, it seems that nobody will be completely satisfied—perhaps that is the nature of politics. The PRC will not stand for any hint of Taiwan Independence, and many on Taiwan feel the KMT is too friendly with the mainland to the detriment of the local people and local economy. So what is the answer? Maybe the least bad option: Eric Chu, the KMT and the status quo.

In just over 90 days we will have an answer to this question. Do you have anything to add to the discussion? Please let us know your thoughts.

Update: Want China Times reported on October 12, 2015 that Taiwan’s Koumintang Party will hold a special party congress in Taipei on October 17, 2015 to select a new candidate to replace Ms. Hung.